public perceptions of hydrogen – how important is risk...

24
Imperial College London Public Perceptions of Hydrogen – how important is risk? Tanya O’Garra, Peter Pearson & Susana Mourato Imperial College London Centre for Energy Policy & Technology (ICEPT) [email protected] ESRC H2 Seminar 4 Salford, 14 October 2005

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Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Pub

lic P

erce

ptio

ns o

f Hyd

roge

n –

how

im

port

ant i

s ris

k?

Tan

ya O

’Gar

ra,

Pet

er P

ears

on &

Sus

ana

Mou

rato

Impe

rial C

olle

ge L

ondo

n C

entr

e fo

r E

nerg

y P

olic

y &

Tec

hnol

ogy

(IC

EP

T)

p.j.p

ears

on@

impe

rial.a

c.uk

ES

RC

H2

Sem

inar

4S

alfo

rd, 1

4 O

ctob

er 2

005

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Obj

ectiv

es o

f pre

sent

atio

n

•T

o e

xam

ine:

–H

ow h

ydro

gen

risks

are

cur

rent

ly p

erce

ived

(H

inde

nbur

g/H

bom

b, e

tc.)

–D

o pe

ople

see

m tr

oubl

ed a

bout

hyd

roge

n?

•T

o d

iscu

ss r

esul

ts fr

om 3

stu

dies

in u

rban

are

as,

abo

ut:

–P

ublic

atti

tude

s to

war

ds H

2 ve

hicl

es (

esp.

bus

es)

–P

ublic

atti

tude

s to

war

ds H

2 re

fuel

ling

faci

litie

s–

Att

itude

cha

nge

ove

r tim

e

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Thr

ee p

ublic

acc

epta

bilit

y st

udie

s

1.E

C-f

unde

d A

CC

EP

TH

2cr

oss-

cont

inen

tal s

tudy

of p

ublic

at

titud

es &

pre

fere

nces

for

H2

buse

s (h

ttp://

ww

w.a

ccep

th2.

com

/)

2.“P

ublic

Acc

epta

bilit

y of

H2

Infr

astr

uctu

re in

Lon

don”

(EP

SR

C-f

unde

d: T

he D

evel

opm

ent o

f a H

2 E

nerg

y In

fras

truc

ture

in L

ondo

n)

3.B

P/Im

peria

l Col

lege

Lon

don

stud

y: “

Pub

lic A

ccep

tanc

e of

an

d D

eman

d fo

r In

form

atio

n ab

out H

2 R

efue

lling

Sta

tions

in

3 Lo

ndon

Bor

ough

s”

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Dat

a co

llect

ion

AC

CE

PT

H2:

•m

ostly

‘pho

ne in

terv

iew

s w

ith b

us u

sers

in B

erlin

, Lu

xem

bour

g, P

erth

(W

A),

Lon

don

& O

akla

nd (

CA

.);

•be

fore

& a

fter

H2

bus

expe

rimen

ts (

sam

ple

size

s ap

prox

. 30

0-41

5 pe

r ci

ty).

EP

SR

C H

2 In

fras

truc

ture

stu

dy:

•qu

estio

nnai

res

dist

ribut

ed in

200

3 to

hou

seho

lds

near

ex

istin

g re

fuel

ling

stat

ions

in G

reat

er L

ondo

n (s

ampl

e=34

6)

BP

/IC lo

ngitu

dina

linf

rast

ruct

ure

stud

y:•

in 3

Lon

don

boro

ughs

(B

rom

ley,

Hav

erin

gan

d R

edbr

idge

)•

‘pho

ne s

urve

ys (

n=60

0) e

very

6 m

onth

s ov

er 3

yea

rs, f

rom

20

04 (

sam

ple:

360

0)

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Per

cept

ions

of h

ydro

gen

in L

ondo

n*

posi

tive

22%

che

mic

al38

%exp

osiv

e/fla

mm

able

13%

othe

r ne

utra

l1%

phys

ical

pr

ope

rtie

s6% fu

el/e

nerg

y13

%

dang

er

4%po

llutio

n/fu

me

s3%

“Wha

t are

the

first

wor

ds th

at c

ome

to m

ind

whe

n yo

u he

ar th

e w

ord

‘hyd

roge

n’?”

(Ask

ed in

all

stud

ies)

* A

ccep

tH2

Lond

on

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon P

ublic

atti

tude

s to

Hyd

roge

n T

rans

port

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

vehi

cles

*

“H

ow w

ould

you

feel

abo

ut th

e in

trod

uctio

n of

H2-

pow

ered

ve

hicl

es in

you

r ci

ty?”

(bef

ore

buse

s in

trod

uced

)

69

%2

%1

9%

10

%

36

%0

%6

0%

4%

62

%1

%2

9%

8%

46

%1

%5

2%

1%

52

%1

%4

1%

6%

Be

rlin

Lo

nd

on

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Pe

rth

To

tal

Su

pp

ort

Op

po

se

Ne

ed

mo

re in

form

atio

nIn

diff

ere

nt

* A

ccep

tH2

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

vehi

cles

in L

ondo

n

36%

0.2%

60%

4%

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

su

pp

ort

op

po

se

ne

ed

mo

rein

foin

dif

fere

nt

Frequency

“How

wou

ld y

ou fe

el a

bout

hyd

roge

n po

wer

ed v

ehic

les

bein

g in

trod

uced

in L

ondo

n?”

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

buse

s*“D

o yo

u th

ink

it w

ould

be

a go

od id

ea to

intr

oduc

e H

2 F

C

buse

s in

you

r ci

ty o

n a

larg

e sc

ale?

”(o

pen-

ende

d qs

. sug

gest

opp

ositi

on la

rgel

y du

e to

cos

ts, &

po

ssib

ilitie

s of

pot

entia

lly m

ore

suita

ble

alte

rnat

ives

)

55

%3

%3

4%

8%

44

%3

%4

9%

4%

55

%1

%3

2%

13

%

30

%3

%6

1%

6%

46

%3

%4

4%

7%

Be

rlin

Lo

nd

on

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Pe

rth

To

tal

Ye

sN

o

De

pe

nd

sD

on

't K

no

w/C

are

* A

ccep

tH2

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

WT

P fo

r H

2 bu

ses*

•O

vera

ll p

osi

tive

WT

P f

or

H2

bu

ses

in a

ll ci

ties:

–A

bou

t €0

.35

per

sin

gle

bus

fare

–A

bou

t €

25 p

er a

nnu

al ta

x(V

alue

s ad

just

ed to

cos

t of l

ivin

g)

•R

esp

on

den

ts’i

nte

ntio

ns

to u

se H

2 b

us:

Mos

t (ap

pro

x. 7

5%

in e

ach

city

) w

ou

ld ‘

take

the

fir

st b

us

that

com

es a

long’.

–<

1%

‘wo

uld

try

to ta

ke th

e n

orm

al b

us

* A

ccep

tH2

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

6 m

onth

s in

to H

2 bu

s tr

ials

….

•S

up

po

rt fo

r la

rge-

scal

e in

tro

. o

f H

2 b

use

s

incr

ease

d in

eve

ry c

ity

•U

sers

of

H2

bu

ses

+ve

abo

ut e

xper

ien

ce

(alth

ou

gh

no

mo

re li

kely

to s

up

po

rt H

2 b

use

s)

•P

erce

ived

ris

ks a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith H

2 t

ran

spo

rt

do

n’t

curr

ently

ap

pea

r to

be

su

bst

antia

l

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon P

ublic

atti

tude

s to

Hyd

roge

n In

fras

truc

ture

in L

ondo

n

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

Infr

astr

uctu

re in

Lon

don*

(1)

* H

2 In

fras

truc

ture

Pro

ject

Atti

tude

s to

H2

Sto

rage

Sup

port

16%

Opp

ose

4%

Indi

ffere

nt5%

Ne

ed

info

75%

“Wha

t are

you

r in

itial

feel

ings

abo

ut th

e st

orag

e of

hy

drog

en a

t exi

stin

g re

fuel

ling

stat

ions

in L

ondo

n?”

(det

ails

& lo

catio

n no

t spe

cifie

d)

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon Com

parin

g at

titud

es to

H2

vehi

cles

and

to H

2 fa

cilit

ies*

(M

ore

+ve

tow

ards

veh

icle

s; m

ore

info

. nee

ded

on

infr

astr

uctu

re)

Attit

udes

to H

2 V

ehic

les

Sup

port

33%

Opp

ose

1%Ne

ed in

fo63

%

Indi

ffere

nt3%

Atti

tude

s to

H2

Sto

rage

Sup

port

16%

Opp

ose

4%

Indi

ffere

nt5%

Ne

ed

info

75%

* H

2 In

fras

truc

ture

Pro

ject

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

Infr

astr

uctu

re in

Lon

don*

(2)

8.36

%

26.8

%

32.9

%

22.2

%

9.8%

05101520253035404550

Str

ongl

ydi

sagr

eeD

isag

ree

Nei

ther

agr

eeno

r di

asgr

eeA

gree

Str

ongl

yag

ree

% respondents“I

wou

ld b

e co

ncer

ned

if hy

drog

en w

ere

stor

ed a

t my

loca

l ref

uelin

g st

atio

n”(a

fter

info

. pro

vide

d)

* H

2 In

fras

truc

ture

Pro

ject

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

Infr

astr

uctu

re in

Lon

don*

(3)

Atti

tude

s to

war

ds d

evel

opm

ent o

f H2

refu

ellin

gfa

cilit

y at

lo

cal r

efue

lling

stat

ion

in 3

mon

ths’

time

24.5

7%

9.25

%

59.5

4%

6.65

%

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

supp

ort

oppo

sene

ed in

foin

diff

eren

t

% respondents

* H

2 In

fras

truc

ture

Pro

ject

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Atti

tude

s to

H2

faci

litie

s in

Lon

don

•S

upp

ortm

ost

like

ly a

mo

ng

st y

ou

nger

mal

es w

ith p

rior

kno

wle

dge

abou

t H2

(B

P/IC

stu

dy)

•O

ppo

sitio

nmo

re li

kely

am

on

gst:

Old

er r

espo

nden

ts w

ho d

istr

ust r

egul

atio

ns &

ten

ded

to

“pre

fer

it if

hyd

rog

en

were

sto

red

at

a r

efu

elli

ng

sta

tion

els

ew

here

in L

on

do

n”(B

P/I

C &

H2

Inf

rast

. st

udie

s)

–T

hose

who

had

und

ert

aken

indi

vidu

al a

ctio

ns to

influ

ence

pl

anni

ng in

the

past

(H

2 In

fras

t. st

udy)

–T

hose

who

did

not

agr

ee t

hat e

nviro

nmen

tal i

ssue

s ar

e im

port

ant (H

2 In

fras

t. st

udy)

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon O

ppos

ition

in L

ondo

n: a

clo

ser

look

(1)

1. A

war

enes

s of

H2-

fuel

led

vehi

cles

low

am

ongs

t opp

osed

res

pond

ents

:–

Less

than

1/3rd

(31

%)

of o

ppo

sers

in B

P/I

C s

tud

y h

ad h

eard

of H

2 v

ehic

les

–6

0%

of o

ppo

sers

in H

2 In

fras

tr. s

tud

y h

ad h

eard

o

f H2

•bu

t m

ost (

71%

) st

ill th

ink

them

selv

es ‘

no

t a

t a

ll’or

‘n

ot

very

kn

ow

led

gea

ble’

–A

pp

rox.

80

% o

f opp

oser

sin

bot

h s

tudi

es s

aid

they

w

oul

d ‘n

eed

more

info’

to g

ive

an o

pin

ion

abo

ut

the

intr

odu

ctio

n o

f H2

veh

icle

s

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Opp

ositi

on: a

clo

ser

look

(2)

2. O

pp

osin

g in

div

idu

als

are

no

mo

re li

kely

to

asso

ciat

e H

2 w

ith ‘b

om

b’,

‘Hin

den

bu

rg’o

r ‘e

xplo

sion

’th

an o

ther

res

po

nden

ts

(BP

/IC &

H2

Infr

ast.

Stu

dies

)

3. N

ever

thel

ess,

mo

st o

ppos

ers

(80

%)

are

‘o

ver

75

% c

ert

ain

’that

they

op

po

se lo

cal H

2 s

tora

ge

dev

elo

pm

ents

(BP

/IC s

tud

y)

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Opp

ositi

on: a

clo

ser

look

(3)

4. M

ost

op

pose

rsin

H2

Infr

astr

. stu

dy

are

will

ing

to

sp

end

tim

eop

posi

ng

loca

l H2

sto

rag

e (e

.g.

wri

te le

tter

s to

MP

, org

anis

e m

eet

ing

s).

–H

owev

er, o

nly

half

are

will

ing

to do

na

te m

on

ey

tow

ards

an

opp

ositi

on g

roup

’s e

ffor

ts.

5. O

pp

ose

rsar

e lik

ely

to h

ave un

der

take

n

ind

ivid

ual

act

ion

s to

influ

ence

pla

nn

ing

is

sues

in th

e p

ast (un

rela

ted

to H

2)

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

How

impo

rtan

t is

risk?

•R

isk

does

not

at p

rese

nta

ppea

r to

be

a se

rous

issu

e in

rel

atio

n to

H

2 tr

ansp

ort a

ccep

tabi

lity

•R

isk

poss

ibly

an

issu

e at p

rese

ntin

rel

atio

n to

H2

faci

lity

deve

lopm

ents

, but

..

–O

ppos

ed in

divi

dual

s po

orly

info

rmed

–le

t alo

ne m

isin

form

ed-

abou

t H2

–In

all

stud

ies

mos

t wou

ld ‘ne

ed

mo

re in

fo’to

be

able

to e

xpre

ss

view

s ab

out l

ocal

faci

litie

s -

so a

ttitu

des

mig

ht b

e vo

latil

e

–O

ppos

ition

driv

en b

y m

an

y di

ffer

ent f

act

ors

–In

som

e ca

ses

H2

‘risk

’pos

sibl

y a

(str

ate

gic)

‘v

ehic

le’t

o va

lidat

e op

posi

tion

on o

ther

gro

unds

?

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Fur

ther

Res

earc

h?

Mig

ht u

sefu

lly e

xplo

re:

•In

itial

driv

ers

of o

ppos

ition

to/s

upp

ort

for

H2

.

•W

het

her

/ho

w th

e ac

t of o

ppo

sing

loca

l fac

ility

d

evel

op

men

ts p

rovi

des

ben

efits

/cos

ts to

peo

ple.

•H

ow

atti

tude

s to

H2

veh

icle

s/in

fras

truc

ture

var

y w

ith

info

rmat

ion

, kno

wle

dge

& e

xper

ienc

e.

•W

ider

issu

es r

elat

ing

to ‘u

nfa

mili

ar’/’

new

’te

chno

log

ies

Impe

rial C

olle

geLo

ndon

Ref

eren

ces

O’G

arra

, T.,

Mou

rato

, S. a

nd P

ears

on, P

. (20

05)

‘Ana

lysi

ng a

war

enes

s an

d ac

cept

abili

ty o

f hyd

roge

n ve

hicl

es: a

Lon

don

case

stu

dy’,

Inte

rnat

iona

l Jou

rnal

of H

ydro

gen

Ene

rgy,

30,

649

-659

O’G

arra

, T. (

2005

) P

ublic

Acc

epta

bilit

y of

and

Pre

fere

nces

for

Hyd

roge

n F

uel C

ell B

uses

and

Ref

uelli

ngIn

fras

truc

ture

, The

sis

subm

itted

for

the

Deg

ree

of D

octo

r of

Phi

loso

phy,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Lo

ndon

, Im

peria

l Col

lege

Lon

don,

Aug

. 200

5. [N

ote:

Dr

O’G

arra

’sP

hD r

esea

rch

was

sup

port

ed b

y th

e Jo

hn S

tanl

ey

Stu

dent

ship

]

O’G

arra

, T. (

2005

) ‘C

ompa

rativ

e A

naly

sis

of th

e Im

pact

of t

he

Hyd

roge

n B

us T

rials

on

Pub

lic A

war

enes

s, A

ttitu

des

and

Pre

fere

nces

: a C

ompa

rativ

e S

tudy

of F

our

Citi

es’,

Fin

al A

naly

sis

Rep

ort,

Acc

eptH

2 pr

ojec

t, (w

ww

.acc

epth

2.co

m),

Res

earc

h fu

nded

by

the

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