public policy and the economic downturn: the contribution of skills professor stephanie young...
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Public policy and the economic downturn: the contribution of skills
Professor Stephanie Young
Director, Strategic Relations
Skills Development Scotland
Global Economic Downturn
“World growth is projected to fall to lowest rate since World War II” IMF, Jan 09
(year-on-year, percentage change)
Recessions in the Global Economy
Germany
France
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Source: Reuters EcoWin (OECD - GDP, volume)
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Per
cen
t
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
Forecasts Point to Slower Growth
Latest Independent Forecasts for Scottish GDP Growth
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pe
rce
nta
ge G
row
th o
n P
revio
us
Ye
ar
Forecast
Official GDP FAI Experian Item Club
Note: All forecasts published between Nov 08 and Feb 09.
Cambridge Econometrics
Labour Market Weakening
Scottish & UK Unemployment Rate
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ILO
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Ra
te (
%)
Scotland UK
Forecast Net Jobs Change 2008 - 2012
-90,000
-70,000
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
job
s
Central or base
Optimistic
Recession plus slow
Sustained Recession
Forecast Period: 2008 to 2012Actual Net Jobs Change: 2004 to 2007
Forecast Unemployment Rates for Scotland
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Per
cen
t
FAI - Central Forecast
FAI - Worse Case FAI - Optimistic
ExperianOfficial ILO Unemployment Rate
Underlying challenges
The skills paradox – Scotland well-qualified, but not productive
Inequalities of access to learning, affecting life chances and social cohesion.
And a complex institutional landscape.
Why SDS was set up
To maximise our contribution to sustainable economic growth by
unlocking the potential of Scotland’s greatest asset - our people
The Vision
Skills Development Scotland will be a catalyst for real and positive change in Scotland’s skills performance. We will help individuals to realise their full potential, we will help employers be more successful through skills development, and we will work in meaningful partnership to enhance Scotland’s sustainable economic development.
SDS response to recession
Refresh and relaunch PACE …
Accelerate Integrated Employment and Skills service…
…without being deflected from longer term issues.
PACEPartnership Action for Continuing Employment
supporting 21 regional PACE partnerships
a dedicated website and national helpline, providing access to a wide range of skills and employability services
deploying 80 staff to advise and guide individuals on their options
information exchange with key agencies
early access to Training for Work and Apprenticeships.
Redeployment of redundant part-trained MAs
Integrated Employment and Skills Service (IES)
a “no wrong door approach” to skills and employment servicesa new Skills Health Check toola refreshed Training for Work programme to support skills developmentinformation sharing to improve customer journeys and resource planninginformation capture about potential redundancy situations through PACE.
Scottish Employer Service
Direct relationship
Single point of contact
Account Managed Service
Skills Utilisation
Bespoke Solutions
Catalytic role
Deeper partnerships, shared intelligence, joint development
Scottish Funding Council exampleJoint ownership of Skills Committee
SDS secondee leading on skills utilisation pilots with colleges
Longer term – building on what we have learned
Deeper personalisation
Smarter networks with partners
Qualitative measures, not just volumes
Being organised around customer journeys
Being more responsive to need
Building capacity and capability
Smarter use of technology
Co-creating toolkits to support capacity-building
The world after recession?
Different sectors will recover (if they were affected) at different rates
Consumers will be more wary
Globalisation will continue, with India and China emerging
Climate change will be far more pressing
Contact for further information
Professor Stephanie Young
0141 285 6000
PACE Helpline
0808 100 1855