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“Acting in Time: Educating Leaders to

Solve Our Greatest Global Challenges”

David T. Ellwood

Dean Harvard Kennedy School

Davos IdeasLab

January 2011

1

Climate Change Demographic Shifts

Earthquakes,

Tsunamis, Floods,

Hurricane, Typhoons

Pandemics, Avian

Flu, H1N1,

Predictable Crises

Terrorism

WATER

Poverty and

Inequality

Budget

Deficits

Nuclear Proliferation

2

Acting in Time Problems

Foreseeable Future Problem

There are Credible Solutions

Acting Sooner Rather Would Be Vastly More Effective and Cost Much Less

YET LEADERS AND NATIONS OFTEN SEEM UNABLE OR

UNWILLING TO ACT

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Theory 1: The Problem is People

Humans Are Short Sighted

Humans Are Incredibly Bad at Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

Humans Blame Others for Big Problems

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Theory 2: The Problem is Business

Profits Ignore Externalities

The Competitive Disadvantage:

Business Knows When “Acting” Will Cost Them

– Use power, money and influence to avoid action

– “The science is weak”

– “We are not to blame”

– “There are better solutions”

5

Theory 3: The Problem is Governments

The Next Election Dilemma—Is Democracy Inherently Short Sighted?

Emphasizing Hard Challenges and Taking Tough Action is Rarely A Good Career Move for Government Officials

6

Theory 3: The Problem is Governments

Weak or Distant Victims Versus Powerful Interests Who Gain from Inaction

Collective Action Across Multiple Governments—“Competing Narratives” and the Free Rider

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But Sometimes Nations Do Act In Time

The Ozone Layer

Lessons:

Vividness

Unusual Alliances—Aligning the Interests of Business, Government and Civil Society

8

But Sometimes Nations Do Act In Time

H1N1 (Swine Flu) and Bird Flu

Lessons:

Clearly Accountable Leaders--Health Ministers

Credible, Independent Institutions With Strong Scientific Focus

9

But Sometimes Nations Do Act In Time

The Marshall Plan

Lessons:

Global Orientation

Reinforcing Foresight Among Exceptional Business and Government Leaders

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Lessons For Acting in Time

Exceptional Long Term Leadership and Clear Responsibility

Make Tomorrow’s Problem, Vivid Today

Seek Out “Unexpected Partners”; Forge Unusual Alliances Among Affected Parties. Strategies that involve collaboration between government, business, and civil society

Build Trusted Institutions of Accountability With a Long Term Focus

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Finding and Educating Leaders Who Act in Time

Attract Exceptional Public Leaders From All Sectors

– Character

– Intelligence

– Creativity

– Deep Concern with the Public Interest, Not Just Private Interest

Educate Students to Solve Real World Problems

Create Capacity to Work Across Sectors and Across Nations

Skilled in Communication and Technology

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Finding and Educating Leaders Who Act in Time

Educate Them to Solve Real World Problems

– Integrated Problem Oriented Not Just Separate “Stove Pipe” Discipline Courses

– On the Ground Real Time Problem Solving

– Able to Understand and Shape Politics and Institutions

– A Culture of Accountability and Effective Management

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Finding and Educating Leaders Who Act in Time

Create Capacity to Work Across Sectors and Across Nations

– Recognize and Admire Unique Capacity and Cultures of Different Sectors

– Understand How to Reshape Incentives To Create Common Gains

– Global Perspective, Local Understanding

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Finding and Educating Leaders Who Act in Time

Help Them Become Skilled in Communication and Technology