pulse report - frozen food - q3 2011 · 2019-10-24 · snacking are growing at +2,9% such as frozen...

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Frozen FoodSymphonyIRI

Welcome to the Pulse Q3 2011 edition for FrozenFood. We hope you find it useful. Please do nothesitate to contact us if you have any questions orcomments at [email protected]

Pulse

2

Frozen Food – SymphonyIRI Pulse Q3 2011

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About the Report

• This Frozen Food report is one of 10 super category reports designed to show high-level comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe.

• This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the following categories: Frozen Vegetables, Frozen Potato Products, Ice Cream, Frozen Desserts, Frozen Meat, Frozen Fish, Frozen Ready Meals and Frozen Dough & Bread Products.

• The report highlights key metrics such as total sales figures, market trends, category shares, winners and losers for Europe and for individual countries.

• The data has been sourced from SymphonyIRI Group retail databases and Eurostat – the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission.

• The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK.

• The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows:

• For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it has not been possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. When this has occurred it has been documented in the Notes section found at the end of the report.

Hypermarkets and SupermarketsFR

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Small Self Service, Hard Discounters and DrugstoresIT

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and DrugstoresNL

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters and DrugstoresDE

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Hard Discounters, Drugstores and includes the Canary IslandsES

Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Drugstores and Impulse OutletsUK

Channels usedCountry

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In the Radar

“”

Economic figures influencing consumer behavior

Frozen food is experiencing an upward trend since the beginning of year, but now mainly driven by inflation on basics categories such as fish or meat.

Paul CrickVice-President, International Consulting, SymphonyIRI GroupContact: [email protected] : +44 1636 526840

Source Eurostats, October 2011

+4.3

+3.0

+2.3

+2.6

+2.4

+2.2

Dec. 2011

+3.3

+2.0

+0.9

+1.6

+1.2

+1.7

Average2010

Average 12 Months Inflation Rate

1,794,5671,696,5838.37.862.462.0United Kingdom

1,074,9401,062,59122.620.146.146.0Spain

607,435591,4774.84.516.616.6Netherlands

1,586,2091,548,8168.38.460.660.3Italy

2,567,0822,476,8005.87.181.781.8Germany

1,987,6991,932,8019.99.865.064.7France

2011 (Estimate)2010

Dec. 2011

Average2010

January2011

January 2010

GDP in Millions (€)Unemployment (%)Population in Millions

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Global Trends

Positive Trend

Static Trend

Negative Trend+4.8%

+3.2%

+1.2%

+0.9%

TOTAL EUROPE +2.5%

1,067NL

2,244ES

3,331IT

3,568FR

4,428*UK

7,712DE

22,349Total EU

Value Sales in Millions (€)

1,166 1,109 1,069 1,023 1,191 1,145

547 643 523 468593 660

292 265251 250

296 270

881 931716 744

913 959

1,947 1,8661,923 1,875

2,043 1,870

886924

790

938 916891

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

04-Jul-10 03-Oct-10 02-Jan-11 03-Apr-11 03-Jul-11 02-Oct-11

Mill

ions

Period Ending

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

UK

*based on an exchange rate of €1.166 to the pound

Source: SymphonyIRI Retail Databases; Period Ending 02 Oct, 11

Value sales and growth and decline in the last year

Value sales for the last six quarters

+2.7%

+2.5%

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6,496

2,2621,950

4,864

3,805

5.6

1.43.5

-0.1

2.7

FrozenReadyMeals

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenVegetables

FrozenMeat

Mill

ions

Total € Sales % € vs. YA

Top 5 Categories Evolution

29.1%

21.8%

17.0%

10.1%

8.7%

7.3%4.2%1.8%

Frozen Ready Meals Ice CreamFrozen Fish Frozen VegetablesFrozen Meat Frozen Potato ProductsFrozen Desserts Frozen Dough & Bread Products

Europe

Value Sales (€) and % Change vs. Yr Ago

6,496

1,632

945395

4,864

3,805

2,2621,950

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom

Milli

ons

Eur

os

Category Value Sales and Share of Value in the Last Year

• Key trends

• Overall Europe, the Frozen macro-category experience a continuous growth in value by +2,5% thanks to a sharp rise in Spain (nearly 5%), followed by France, Italy, and Germany. A good recovery for the UK now positive in value driven by increasing average prices, and The Netherlands slightly positive.

• Germany and UK still account for 54% of the value share.

• The German consumption rates are the highest in the market with an average annual expenditure per capita of 92 Euro, followed by UK 72, the Netherlands, France Italy, and Spain .

• Frozen ready meals is slowing down and growing slower than the global average market.


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Europe

Top 5 Losers: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago (€)

Top 5 Winners: Value Sales chg vs. Yr Ago (€)

128.3

126.4

104.0

92.4

82.6

0 50 100 150

Frozen Fish

Ice Cream

Frozen Meat

Frozen ReadyMeals

Frozen PotatoProducts

Millions

-2.1

-2.9

-4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0

Frozen Vegetables

Frozen Dough &Bread Products

Millions

Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom

Category Insights

• The top 5 winner categories have a combined growth of nearly 600 millions € vsYear ago.

• Frozen ready meals has lost 3 places, since last quarter. The main contributive category is now frozen fish mainly driven by inflation du to raw material inflation. Followed by Ice cream and frozen meat.

• Frozen meat and fish are increasing but mostly thanks to the price increase of raw materiel

• Ice cream sales have seen global good season, thanks to a good pre-season semester linked to weather.

• The only category which is going down is frozen dough and bread, but without seriously penalizing the total frozen food


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981

379 368

793

667

-2.6

1.94.3

5.74.6

FrozenReadyMeals

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenMeat

FrozenVegetables

Mill

ions


27.5%

22.2%

18.7%

10.6%

10.3%8.6%

1.8%

0.2%

Frozen Ready Meals Ice CreamFrozen Fish Frozen MeatFrozen Vegetables Frozen Potato ProductsFrozen Desserts Frozen Dough & Bread Products

France


981

793

667

379 368308

638

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Milli

ons

Eur

os


Key trends

• Frozen universe is growing faster than total FMCG at 3,2% vs 2,8% on total FMCG

•This growth is now only due to price increase (inflation and mix up-grade) as volume are flat (+0,2%).

• After a good pres-season, summer was not good for ice cream (due to bad weather temperatures). Nevertheless, the 4 main frozen categories are well oriented but frozen vegetables.

• Consumption has experienced a significant change, because of rising inflation which has reached a peak at 3% in September.

In term of brand, private label are still declining to national brand’s profit, but the trend should change if inflation remains at this high level.


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France



34.9

27.6

20.3

18.8

18.1

0 10 20 30 40

Ice Cream

Frozen Fish

Frozen Meat


Frozen ReadyMeals

Millions

-10.0

-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0

Frozen Vegetables

Millions

Category Insights

•Ice Cream : a substantial slowing down of ice cream this summer due to bad temperatures. Thus the volume increase is only +1%, although very dynamic in value (+4,6%). Ice Creams create value thanks to price increase (+1,6%) premiumisation (increase of national brand and decrease of private label) and also innovations performing well and representing almost 10% of volume sold vs 6% year ago. This value growth is driven by bulk segment (superpremium) and also cones, where demand is good thanks also to high promotion level and numerous innovations. Private label are declining market share to national brand profit. Unilever the leader is the big winner of this season in market share growth, followed by Haagen-Dasz and Nestlé.

•On salt frozen categories, frozen fish are still taking off but only in value, being the second most contributive category in value but only driven by inflation as volume growth is flat for fish and negative for shell fish (-7%).

•Frozen Meals : correct result for Pizza (+2,2% in value) driven by Dr Oetker & Nestlé(Buitoni), although private label are declining. Snacking are growing at +2,9% such as Frozen ready meals are stagnating (+0,8%), driven by Marie and Findus in contribution.

• Frozen meat are very dynamic due to consumption (+5% in units) transfer from fresh to frozen meals due to price attraction, and thanks also to offer growth.

•Frozen Vegetables : there is a break in trend, since the beginning of 2011, where this category is very bad oriented (-2,7% in value and also in volume -2,9%) mainly driven by weak demand, although all driver such as promotion and offer are stable

•At the opposite potatoes categories are positive since the beginning of the year both in value (+6,9%) and in volume (+4,4%)


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Germany


37.5%

16.0%

15.2%

8.7%

7.5%

7.0%5.1%2.9%

Frozen Ready Meals Frozen MeatIce Cream Frozen FishFrozen Desserts Frozen VegetablesFrozen Potato Products Frozen Dough & Bread Products

2,895

672544

1,233 1,176

577392

224

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2,895

1,233 1,176

577672

2.4 4.32.10.77.1

FrozenReadyMeals

FrozenMeat

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenDesserts

Mill

ions



Milli

ons

Eur

os


Key trends

• Both frozen poultry and frozen red meat are driving the value growth offrozen meat, however the volume isgrowing only slightly. Frozen desserts are yet a very small category in Germany, but discounter promotions are leading this category to high percentual growth rates.

• The price increase rate for frozen fishis smaller this year.

• Potato products are still experiencing price level changes due to raw material price increases, however category volume is not affected by the price change.


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Germany



-9.7

-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0


Millions

77.7

72.7

34.5

28.0

22.7

0 20 40 60 80 100

Frozen ReadyMeals

Frozen Meat

FrozenDesserts

Ice Cream


Millions

Category Insights

• Although promotion shares for frozen pizza are growing rapidly this category doesnot benefit from the increased number of promotions – the market is quite saturated and lacking innovations.

• However frozen desserts still is a very small market but with an increasing number of new innovative varities. The same is true for frozen ready meals and semi ready meals.

• Semi convenience products are playing a bigger role now – there is a trend forcooking with semi finished frozen products replacing dry and ambient products.


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Italy

30,8%

23,2%

19,7%

18,0%

3,8%0,9%0,9%

2,8%

Ice Cream Frozen FishFrozen Vegetables Frozen Ready MealsFrozen Potato Products Frozen MeatFrozen Dough & Bread Products Frozen Desserts

1,025

772655 600

126 92 32 290

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



1.025

772

655600

1260,2

4,6 3,70,5 2,1

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenVegetables

FrozenReadyMeals

FrozenPotato

Products

Mill

ions


Milli

ons

Eur

os



Key trends

• Ice Cream and Frozen Fish lead the overall sector growth both on YE and YTD

• Ice Creams showing the best rate of growth mostly driven by a longer season with extraordinary temperatures in september

• Frozen Fish growth half-due to price inflation ; growth related to consumer switch from Fresh Fish, where price inflation around 10% is causing a strong volume decrease

• Ready Meals are stable with opposite trends between Pizza (still growing) and other Meals (still declining)

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Italy



44,6

27,4

3,8

3,1

2,6

0 10 20 30 40 50

Ice Cream

Frozen Fish

FrozenDesserts

FrozenVegetables


Millions

0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0Millions


Insights and recommendations• Ice Cream : a longer season pushed the growth in 2011 ; all segments increased both volume and

value ; growth supported by stable prices , in countertrend with FMCG inflation rate raised to +3.7% in september ; promo intensity rather stable ; richer offer on Multipacks (65 skus on avg, +4 vs ya) ; innovation rate at 10% ; Big Brands consolidating share vs unbranded ; Private Labels on Multipacks are the best performing thanks to larger assortments, higher promotions, increased sales index ; PL growth stopped on Tubs as prices are aligned with national Brands (an important competitive advantage has been lost)

• Frozen Meals : economic downturn moving shoppers towards cheaper products like Pizza (+4,4% in 2011) while other Meals continue to perform negatively (-4,5% in 2011) despite Leader Findus returned to invest with a brand new ADV creativity ; Private Labels growth slowing down as distribution and assortments are getting stable now.

• Frozen Fish : positive trend in 2011 led by Natural Fillets (+9% in value, +8% in volume) and Fish Fingers (+7% in value, +3,8% in volume) ; all other segments , posistive in value, register strong price inflation and volume reduction ; leader Findus almost keeping the position in a very fragmented arena where Private Labels still gain share

• Frozen Vegetables : overall market is stable with opposite trend between main segments Peas & Cooking Mixes declining (respectevely -3,/% and -1,7% in value on YTD), other mono-types stable ; mixed-veg growing due to richer assortments pushed by innovation ; Leader Findus losing share, mainly due to and weakened distribution and and Private Labels aggression

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Netherlands

39.9%

20.2%

14.2%

9.8%

6.9%3.1%

1.0% 4.9%

Frozen Ready Meals Ice CreamFrozen Fish Frozen Potato ProductsFrozen Vegetables Frozen MeatFrozen Desserts Frozen Dough & Bread Products

425

215

152105

7452

3311

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450



425

215

10574

152

-4.0

3.41.5

5.0 4.4

FrozenReadyMeals

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenPotato

Products

FrozenVegetables

Mill

ions


Milli

ons

Eur

os


Key trends

- Total Frozen Food in the Netherlands is declining in volume, but in value still showing a modest growth (+1.4%).

- Total Frozen Foods cannot keep up with the total supermarket growth however, which causes a loss of share within total supermarket sales.

- This is mainly due to the bad summer, and the declining ice cream sales. If we exclude ice cream, the other frozen segments do keep up with the market growth.

- Noteworthy is the decline of (strong frozen food sellers): Hard Discount, while at service supermarkets we see the opposite: here Frozen Food is outperforming the total market growth.


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Netherlands



-4.1

-9.0

-4.6

-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0

Frozen Desserts

Frozen Meat

Ice Cream

Millions

20.3

3.5

3.1

2.2

0.8

0 5 10 15 20 25

Frozen ReadyMeals


FrozenVegetables

Frozen Fish


Millions

Category Insights

- The biggest winner: Frozen Ready Meals consists out of 3 groups: 1. Ready to Eat meals (including pizza). 2. Meat Snacks and 3. Savoury Snacks. All three segments are growing, but meat snacks is the biggest contributor to the growth (+11mln / +6,7%), followed by ready meals (+8 mln / +4,2%).

- The growth of Frozen Potato products is driven by the increased potato prices. In volume this segment is declining. French Fries are losing sales, while specialties like Aviko Duchesses and Lamb Weston Twisters show an increase.

- The main drivers behind the growth in Frozen vegetables are price increases, but also volume growth is visible. The biggest segment: spinach (almost 40% of the market) is loosing volume, while individual frozen vegetables (i.e. beans, peas, broccoli) are winning. Probably also thanks to a strong price increase in fresh.

- Frozen Fish is winning in value, but loosing in volume. Uncoated and coated fish are growing, but prepared fish products are declining strongly.

- Frozen desserts is an very small segment in the Netherlands, sold mainly aroundEaster and Christmas. Frozen meat is mainly sold at discounters. As discountersare expending their fresh offer in meat, frozen sales is declining. The strong lossof Ice cream is evidently due to the extremely bad summer, effecting all segmentsand all brands.


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Spain

33.3%

26.4%

23.3%

8.0%5.4%0.5%

0.2%3.0%

Frozen Fish Ice CreamFrozen Ready Meals Frozen VegetablesFrozen Dough & Bread Products Frozen Potato ProductsFrozen Desserts Frozen Meat

746

592523

180121

6711 3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



746

592

523

180121 1.6

8.34.5

1.8 1.6

Frozen Fish Ice Cream FrozenReadyMeals

FrozenVegetables

FrozenDough &

BreadProducts

Mill

ions


Milli

ons

Eur

os


Key trends

• Frozen categories with continuous growth +4,8% versus FMCG trends (+2.0%). The main drive comes by Fish (8.3%), Pizzas (6.6%).

• The Private Label with trend +7,4% and get to 53,6 value market share. In Supermarket (share of 85%) the Private Label with trend of 9.1% and get to 56.7 of value share

• Once the campaign end, Ice Cream hold 26% in value, with 1.8% of trend. The Private Label reach 66.9 of share

• The first quarter with Frudesaabsorbed into Findus Group


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Spain



57.0

22.6

10.6

6.4

2.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Frozen Fish

Frozen ReadyMeals

Ice Cream


FrozenVegetables

Millions

0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Frozen Meat

Millions


Category Insights

• Nestle on the top of the manufacturer, with 7,7 pts of market share, and -0,1% value trend. However, the following manufacturers obtain positive sales evolution: Pescanova (+2.7%), Unilever (+6,5%), Oetker (9,3%).

• The new Findus Group (Findus+Frudesa) will changed the assortment and the mix of Vegetables and Ready to Eat categories; turn to a brand leader in many segments. Obtain 3,5 points of share, with -1.9% in value trend.

• For Pizzas Category is the consecutive year with emphasize trends; due to Nestle and Oetker. Both vendors set more than 67 pts of share. And unusual growth, Nestle +3,7% and Oetker +9,3% in value evolution

• Ice Cream, with Unilever is the leader into the segment, with 18.6 points of value share. And +6.5% of trends. In a Category with a intensive domain of Private Label, with 67% of market share in value.

• The average of volume price has suffer a fall of (-2,2%). Mainly all the categories fall their prices. This price evolution don’t come directly for promotional, reduced the promotional pressure to 15,8% (-2,3ptos than year ago)

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United Kingdom

24.2%

24.0%18.0%

14.3%

5.2%4.3%

10.0%

Frozen Ready Meals Ice CreamFrozen Fish Frozen Potato ProductsFrozen Vegetables Frozen DessertsFrozen Meat

189

1,0711,062

797

634

442

231

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200



1,062

797

634

442

1,071

2.72.40 -1.1

1

FrozenReadyMeals

Ice Cream Frozen Fish FrozenPotato

Products

FrozenVegetables

Mill

ions


Milli

ons

Eur

os

Data for the United Kingdom does not include Northern Ireland


Key trends

• Frozen is seeing general value growth driven by increasing average prices.

• The value growth is accelerating in the medium term with 12 wk YOY growth at 4.3%

• The declining volume trend is continuing this quarter, and has been in YOY decline since May ‘11

• Very few categories in the UK market are managing to experience value and volume growth (Ice cream, Poultry and Red Meat)


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United Kingdom



-5.0

-13.2

-14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0

Frozen Vegetables

Frozen Desserts

Millions

25.0

16.6

10.5

4.7

0.3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Ice Cream


Frozen ReadyMeals

Frozen Meat

Frozen Fish

Millions

Data for the United Kingdom does not include Northern Ireland

Category Insights

• The Frozen category is still being generally perceived as a value option. The current climate may well be pushing people down the aisle. This along with key brands such as Birds Eye introducing new lines and promoting aggressively above and below the line are key reasons for the growth trend.

• OL is continuing to grow in the UK market UK retailers are focusing on OL leveraging their increased consumer acceptability and improving perceptions of food quality. Most have clear tiers within categories enabling them to reach the differing consumer groups e.g. Finest, premium, standard and value.

• Base has been the key driver of growth in OL YOY.

• Promotional volumes are continuing to decline compared to the highs experienced YA (although levels are still high) what is interesting is the uplifts are higher. Possibly due to less promotional noise leading to increase the promotional standout.


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Final Notes

Notes on Category Definitions for Countries

Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasn’t always possible to align products across all 6 countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. Those exceptions are listed below:

Frozen Dough & Bread Products

•The UK data in this report does not include this category

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Resources

To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers, contact your SymphonyIRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the following resources:

• InfoScan Census ® is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan Census utilizes the data that SymphonyIRI Group collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about frozen foods are coming from InfoScan Census®.

• SymphonyIRI Consulting provide strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources, predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help CPG manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively

Contact: SymphonyIRI Group, [email protected], Tel: +33 1 30 26 81 00

About SymphonyIRI Group SymphonyIRI group, formerly named Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), is the global leader in innovative solutions and services for driving revenue and profit growth in CPG, retail and healthcare companies. SymphonyIRI offers two families of solutions: core IRI solutions for market measurement and symphony advantage solutions for enabling new growth opportunities in marketing, sales, shopper marketing and category management. SymphonyIRI solutions uniquely combine content, analytics and technology to deliver maximum impact. SymphonyIRI helps companies create, plan and execute forward-looking, shopper-centric strategies across every level of the organization. For more information, visit www.SymphonyIRI.eu

pulse report - frozen food - q3 2011 · 2019-10-24 · snacking are growing at +2,9% such as frozen...

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