pupil schools provision programme 2013-18
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Pupil Schools Provision Programme 2013-18. Presentation to Children’s Services Scrutiny Committee 11 July 2012 . Slide 1. Office of National Statistics Data Salford Population Change. Slide 2. The Office of National Statistics data. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Pupil Schools Provision Programme 2013-18
Presentation to Children’s Services Scrutiny Committee
11 July 2012
Slide 1
Office of National Statistics Data Salford Population Change
Comparison ONS Mid Year Estimates and Succesive Population Projections - Salford Source: ONS
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Year
Num
ber o
f Per
sons
(000
s)
2003 Projection
2006 Projection
2008 Projection
2010 projection
Mid Year Estimates
Slide 2
The Office of National Statistics data
ONS indicates an overall 58000 population growth for Salford 2010 – 2030
ONS predictions are based on birth and death data plus migration trends
ONS methodology for predicting migration trends has improved to ensure greater reliability
The growth mirrors national trends, Salford has the second highest growth predicted for Greater Manchester
Comparison between 2008 predictions and 2010 predictions show a significant increase
ONS population data prediction now correlates with primary school roll numbers and trends
Slide 3
Comparison with AGMA
Table 7: Projected Total Population Change, Greater Manchester Districts.
Area
Projected Total PopulationCumulative Change (Number of
people) Cumulative Change (Percent)
2010 2015 2020 2030 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30 2010-15 2010-20 2010-30
Bolton 270 282 294 315 12 24 45 4.4 9.0 16.7
Bury 185 193 201 215 8 16 30 4.1 8.5 16.3
Manchester 470 507 535 583 37 65 113 7.8 13.8 23.9
Oldham 221 227 234 246 7 13 25 2.9 6.1 11.3
Rochdale 206 210 215 224 5 10 19 2.2 4.8 9.1
Salford 230 246 262 288 16 31 58 7.0 13.6 25.1
Stockport 285 293 302 320 8 17 35 2.7 6.0 12.3
Tameside 218 226 235 251 8 17 33 3.9 8.0 15.3
Trafford 217 228 240 261 11 23 44 4.9 10.6 20.4
Wigan 310 320 331 349 11 21 39 3.4 6.9 12.5
Greater Manchester 2,611 2,732 2,850 3,052 121 239 441 4.6 9.1 16.9
Source: ONS 2010 based sub national population projections.
Slide 4
Graphs of Salford pupil trends since 1981 and our prediction to 2018
Number On Roll Trend - Primary Schools
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Year
NO
R
Pupil Numbers
Schools Capacity
Slide 6
• 500 additional places were created for September 2011, 700 additional places are being created for September 2012 in 23 schools
• This has been achieved in the majority of cases through the utilisation of existing school spaces i.e. converting non classroom space into classrooms
• However, we are installing temporary classrooms on 5 schools this year, only 1needed in 2011
• Started to identify the options for the expansion of schools and held a seminar for head teachers and chairs of governors to put forward their proposals.
• Working closely with neighbouring LAs is maintained to ensure cross boundary pressures are acknowledged
• Continuing to work closely with the dioceses and schools through the Stakeholder Steering Group to ensure good communication and wider ownership of the challenge.
What are we doing
Slide 8
Proposed Programme Governance Structure
Cabinet
Mayoral Working Party
EstatesBoard
Children’s ServicesLeadership Team
StakeholderSteering Group
Slide 10
Options for Expansion
• Bring back all available classroom space in schools for school use
• Expand existing schools with extensions
• Re-commission disused schools including those vacated through BSF programme
• Thru-schools in Secondary Buildings – until we need secondary places
• Acquire adjacent buildings to schools and create Key Stage on adjoining site
• Acquire other existing LA buildings for School use
• Use all LA owned brownfield sites to build new schools
Slide 12
Map of the new 12 planning areas against the ward boundaries
Slide 15