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Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Purchasing Manager Index and the Global Outlook
6 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany
Chris Williamson, Economics Executive Director
+44 20 7260 2329, [email protected]
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Current coverage
Recent expansion
40+Countries
27,000+Companies
83%Global GDP
IHS Markit PMI surveys
Global coverage continues to rise
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The world according to the PMI this time last year:
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• Global economy accelerating (PMI at 11-month high)
• Emerging markets showing signs of life (China especially better than expected)
• US economy faring well, meaning rate hikes on the way
• Eurozone enjoying best spell since 2011, likely to surprise on the upside in 2017 with ECB likely to sound
more hawkish as deflation fears fade
• UK showing surprising resilience with PMI at 1½ year high, but widespread Brexit worries bode ill for
growth and investment
• Global commodity price pressures rallying
• Auto sector growth picking up (notably in Europe), but higher costs squeezing margins to greatest extent
since 2011
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Eurozone economic growth at 12-year high
GDP data understating the boom
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Eurozone economic growth and PMI Eurozone GDP revisions
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Eurozone broadening upturn adds to sense of self-sustaining growth
France joins the party, eurozone labour market surges
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Eurozone economic growth and PMI Eurozone employment
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Eurozone price pressures
Rising price pressures point to tighter monetary policy
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Eurozone price pressures v core CPI ECB decisions v Eurozone price pressures
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UK economy’s resilience shows cracks at start of 2018
PMI slides to lowest since August 2016
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United Kingdom economic growth and PMI UK PMI v Bank of England policy
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UK suffering from lack of domestic demand and investment
Construction under particular stress from Brexit uncertainty
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United Kingdom PMIs by sector UK investment and commercial construction
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United States: steady as she goes
Manufacturing outperforms
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United States economic growth and PMI United States manufacturing output
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Better than expected growth in Japan and China
China PMI at seven-year high
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Japan PMI China PMI
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Brighter signs of emerging market life
PMI data add to expectations of stronger growth in 2018
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Brazil PMI Russia PMI India PMI
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Global economy starts 2018 on a solid footing
PMI highest since September 2014 as emerging market growth hits five-year high
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global economic growth Developed v emerging market output
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Europe heads up manufacturing
Asia lags behind
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Manufacturing PMI rankings
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Global employment
Hiring at decade-high
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global employment and capacity Developed v emerging market employment
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Cyclical upturn in global investment
Machinery & equipment demand surges
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Global PMI Output Indices
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Input prices
Global sector PMI
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All-sector input costs
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Global industrial prices
Price recovery on-going
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global industrial prices Industrial prices v emerging market output
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Supply constraints indicative of sellers’ market
Worldwide supplier delivery times lengthening to greatest extent since 2011 in recent months
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global supply delays and production Global supply delays and prices
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Global autos PMI output
PMI averaged 53.6 in 2017
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Global autos PMI by region
Upturn led by Europe
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Global PMI auto sector output by region Auto production, annual % change
2015 2016 2017 (f) 2018 (f)
Global 1.6 4.8 2.1 1.9
Europe 4.0 2.8 3.2 1.9
Europe excl. UK 3.9 2.3 3.8 2.2
UK 5.5 7.9 -3.1 -2.3
US 3.6 1.3 -8.1 1.0
China 4.7 14.2 2.2 0.6
Asia excl. China -1.1 0.3 2.8 0.8
Source: IHS Markit.
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Global autos PMI - purchasing and supply chains
Worldwide
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Global auto sector supply chains Global auto supply delays and input prices
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Global autos PMI - purchasing and supply chains
Worldwide
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global auto sector capacity Autos supply chains
Sub-50 readings mean more delays
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Global autos PMI - prices
Auto sector cost pressures above global manufacturing average
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global input prices Global selling prices
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Global autos PMI - prices
Worldwide
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global input prices Global selling prices
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Operating marginsDifference between selling price and input cost inflation
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
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Global PMI Margin Indicator
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The world according to the PMI this time last year:
PMI Global Overview / February 2018IHS Markit Global PMI
26
• Global economy accelerating (PMI at 11 40-month high)
• Emerging markets showing signs of life (China especially better than expected)
• US economy faring well, meaning rate hikes on the way
• Eurozone enjoying best spell since 2011 2006, likely to surprise on the upside in 2017 2018 with ECB
likely to sound more hawkish as deflation fears fade inflation perks up
• UK showing surprising waning resilience with PMI at 1½ year high low, but as widespread Brexit worries
bode ill for are curbing growth and investment
• Global commodity price pressures rallying, and now feeding through to consumers
• Auto sector growth picking up robust though possibly peaking (notably in Europe), but higher costs and
weak pricing power squeezing margins to greatest extent since 2011
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More informationihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/financial-markets.html
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