purpose of dinokeng
TRANSCRIPT
PURPOSE OF DINOKENG
“To create a space and language for open, fl ti d d t t i tireflective and reasoned strategic conversation
among South Africans about possible futures g pfor the country, and the opportunities, risks and h i th f t t ”choices these futures present.”
T H E D I N O K E N G P R O C E S S
WHAT INFORMED THE SCENARIO TEAM’S WORKv
The team is diverse:
v
What they do have in common is:Together, their diversity and shared intent is a core strength of The team is diverse:• It represents a broad spectrum of South African society.
• The members have different backgrounds, experiences and perspectives.
What they do have in common is:
• A deep concern that things are not what they should be in South Africa.
Together, their diversity and shared intent is a core strength of Dinokeng.
g , p p p
• They did not agree on everything!• A commitment to the values of the Constitution.
• A desire to contribute to the construction of a sustainable future.
Convenors (Members of the Scenario Team)
• An acknowledgement of the heritage of our past.
• Graça Machel • Rick Menell • Bob HeadMamphela Ramphele • Vincent Maphai • Njongonkulu Ndungane
Miriam Altman • Moemedi Kepadisa • Yogan Naidoo • Frans Baleni • Reuel Khoza • Maite Nkoana-Mashabane • Haniff Hoosen Ann Bernstein • Kallie Kriel • Thandi • Nkosinathi • Antjie • Thami ka Plaatjie
Scenario Team
Nontenja Biko j
Krog j
• Musa ZondiCheryl Carolus • Mary Malete
• Sonja Sebotsa • Angela Coetzee • Daniel Mminele • Raenette Taljaard
• Jay Naidoo Ryan Coetzee • Namhla Mniki
• Mathatha Tsedu • Paul Hanratty • Aaron Motsoaledi
• Sim Tshabalala
Sponsored by
DINOKENG PROCESS
PHASE IScenario Team
PHASE IICitizens and leadersScenario Team Citizens and leaders
Diverging Emerging Converging
Workshops, research and writingPrivate engagement with key stakeholders
Broad public engagement
08 / 2008 05 / 200908 / 2008 05 / 2009
SOUTH AFRICA IS AT A CROSSROADS
Since 1994 we have made great gains but also serious mistakes.Since 1994 we have made great gains but also serious mistakes.We face severe political, economic and social challenges,exacerbated by a global economic crisis.y gWe are at risk of disintegration and decline.
We are at a critical moment of choice: a crossroads.We are at a critical moment of choice: a crossroads.
Our state is too weak to address these challenges by itself.
We can address our critical challenges if and only if citizens and leadersWe can address our critical challenges if and only if citizens and leadersfrom all sectors (including the state) engage actively and collaboratively.
“Futures are never given They are created ”Futures are never given. They are created.
W H E R E A R E W E T O D A Y ?
OUR ACHIEVEMENTS
Respected ConstitutionEstablished parliamentary democracy
P liti l l li
POLITICAL
Political pluralism
Regular free and fair elections – 2009 elections a sign of a maturing democracy
“Our Constitution is heralded as one of the greatest in the world.”
Independent and vigilant media
Independent judiciaryCivilian control over army
f g
Independent and vigilant mediaCulture of human rights
Reconnected with rest of Africa
OUR ACHIEVEMENTS
POLITICAL
ECONOMICMacro-economic stabilityNet new jobs = 3.5 millionSustained economic growth rates
Fi l & t li d
Steady increase in expenditure onsocial servicesECONOMIC
Progressive economic reforms
Reduced unemployment (30% to 23%)
Fiscal & monetary policy prudencesocial services
p y
Improved credit ratingsReduced international debt
OUR ACHIEVEMENTS
Decrease in violent contact crimesPOLITICAL
ECONOMICIncreased access to services
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL Expanded Public Works ProgrammesIncreased social expenditure
Expanded public housing programmesPoverty alleviation - Social grants to 13 million
p p g p g
OUR ACHIEVEMENTS
POLITICAL
ECONOMIC
Increased Education budget
Increased access to schools and universitiesECONOMIC
SOCIAL
and universities
Increase in Matric pass rateIncreased allocation to no fee schools
EDUCATION
“A nation is built on its people, its skills, and its p p , ,education system.”
OUR ACHIEVEMENTS
Increased Health budgetIncreased access to primary health care
POLITICAL
ECONOMIC health careECONOMIC
SOCIALImproved child immunization – now 85%
EDUCATION
HEALTHHEALTH
OUR CHALLENGES
Single party dominance and
POLITICAL• Do we have the will to build one nation across racial and class divides?weak, fragmented opposition
Weak leadership in all sectors
across racial and class divides?• How do we manage race in a non-racial society?Wh t
Lack of state capacity and accountability
• What are our common characteristics?• What have been the unintended
f ?Weak sense of common nationhood and common destiny
consequences of AA and BEE?• Have we drawn on the skills and talents of all South Africans?
“Let’s stop the motorcades. It should be an honour to be
i th bli i ”
“There must be no compromise on mediocrity masquerading as
leadership ”in the public service.”leadership.”
OUR CHALLENGES
Global economic crisis & declining
ECONOMIC
domestic growth
“Our crossroads is locatedForeign investment expected to decline in emerging markets
High unemployment & skills crisis
High current account deficit
“Our crossroads is located within a global crossroads.”in emerging markets
High current account deficit- 8.1% of GDP in 2008
Currency volatility“We have never had the tough
economic conversations.”
Cost of failure to truly transform the economy
Failure of effective land reform
OUR CHALLENGES
• Within racial groupsA i l g
Persistent poverty 40% of households extremely poor
SOCIAL• High unemployment• High prevalence of HIV/Aids• Across racial groups• Between classes• Between genders
Gi i C ffi i bl k
- 40% of households extremely poor
Inequality and low inter-group trust
• High prevalence of HIV/Aids• Drug abuse• Domestic violence
Racism xenophobia and continued • Gini Coefficient among blackpeople risen from 0.55 (1994) to0.59 (2008)Issues facing our Youth
Racism, xenophobia and continued racial polarisation
Failure of government to ensure citizen safety
High levels of violence against women “You can’t participate in the “50% of 20 24 year oldsand children
Weakening social capital & social cohesion- exacerbated by unemployment and poverty
p peconomy or in politics if you are
concerned with survival.”
“50% of 20-24 year olds are unemployed.”- exacerbated by unemployment and poverty
OUR CHALLENGES
EDUCATIONLack of quality in many areas
“Number Last” in Maths & Science
Nearly half of schools still lack Nearly half of schools still lack critical
infrastructureAcute skills shortages and lack Acute skills shortages and lack of accountability
High school drop-out rates g p- only 29% leave with Matric Certificate
OUR CHALLENGES
Decreasing life expectancy
HEALTH• 56 infant deaths per 1,000 live
births in 2006 (45 in 1990)- from 63 in 1990 to 50 in 2007
4th highest prevalence of HIV/Aids
births in 2006 (45 in 1990)
• 400 maternal deaths per
100,000
Increase in infant and maternal
live births in 2005 (80 in 1997)4th highest prevalence of TB
Increase in infant and maternal mortality rates
Acute skills shortages and lack Acute skills shortages and lack of accountability “People don’t believe that
medicines will be in the clinics”
OUR MOST CRITICAL CHALLENGES
Unemployment and poverty
Education
Unemployment and poverty
Safety and security
Health
… and the building of a common sense of Nationhood.
If we don’t get things right in these areas, it will be hard for us to succeed at anythingfor us to succeed at anything.
WHAT UNDERLIES THESE CHALLENGES
Pre 1994 legacies:
• Inherited deep structural flaws in economic, social and political systems
• A citizenry that is disengaging and
Three inter-related trends that have
becoming increasingly dependent on the state.
• Inherited a culture of mediocrity and entitlement from the apartheid and
Three inter related trends that have manifested themselves since 1994:
entitlement from the apartheid and liberation cultures.
• Weak and diminishing state capacity and bl an unaccountable government.
• A leadership that reflects a culture of materialism and self-interest, and a lack of ethics and accountability.
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
How can we address our critical challenges before they become time bombsthat destroy our achievements?
Three possible ways this question can be answered; three possible paths intoth f tthe future:
- Scenario 1:Walk Apart
- Scenario 2:Walk Behind
- Scenario 3:Walk Togetherg
S C E N A R I O S
WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?
Scenarios are not predictions; they describe possible pathways into aScenarios are not predictions; they describe possible pathways into afuture; our future will not necessarily be purely one or the other.
Scenarios must berelevant, challenging, plausible and clear.
The seeds of the future exist in the present - but our future is notThe seeds of the future exist in the present - but our future is not
pre-ordained; our future depends on the choices we make today.
SCENARIO 1
WALKSCENARIO 1
WALKAPARTAPART
SCENARIO 1: WALK APART
2015 - 2017T d
2009 - 2011TOMORROW IS
THE SHADOWS LENGTHEN
Today
2012 - 20142018 - 2020
TOMORROW IS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
TINKERINGAROUND THE EDGES RULE OF THE
STRONGMAN
Ruling party retains majority.
S O G
Cronyism and corruption in government appointments and tenders.Crime increases: private security guards outnumber police 3 to 1.The cracks widen; budget deficit balloons; delivery worsens.
Global crisis leads to declining investment, growth and tax revenues.
C i i t b t g t l b d b i f il
Education and health care deteriorate.
Rift between government and citizens.
p y g p
Criminal justice system becomes more inefficient because of cronyism and corruption.
Unions lobby government to increase the minimum wage
; g ; y
Elites buy their way out and poor people lose patience.
Gangs, self-appointed mayors and taxi associations rule local areas.Crisis pact between government, labour and business fails.
Government expands the Public Works Programme to create jobs.
Citizens get restless and government increases social grants.
Government increases social grants and civil servant pay: social grant recipients now outnumber taxpayers.
Ruling party wins elections with reduced majority.
Unions lobby government to increase the minimum wage.
Investment shrinks further; unemployment grows.
Service delivery fails; alternative modes of delivery develop and shadowy
“Strongman” wins election, outcome contested.
Protests spiral and government declares state of emergency.2020Citizens get restless and government increases social grants.Ruling party wins elections with reduced majority.
forces become more powerful.
WALK APART: What the papers say
MESSAGE OF WALK APART
If we fail to address our critical economic and social
challenges and to strengthen the state, citizens will disengage further.
Pockets of alternative control and delivery by unaccountable groups outside the state delivery by unaccountable groups outside the state will develop.
Our country will decline and disintegrate rapidly.
SCENARIO 2
WALKWALKBEHINDBEHIND
SCENARIO 2: WALK BEHIND
2015 - 2017Today
2009 - 2011
2015 2017
ACCELERATING
STATE BACKS “WINNERS”
2012 - 2014 2018 - 2020DEVELOPMENT
DISPELLING DARK CLOUDS THE TIDE TURNS
Ruling party retains majority.
Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax
Job losses mount as global crisis bites harder; government spreads social welfare net.Government accelerates large-scale infrastructure programme to boost development.Prescribed asset laws alienate business: investment contracts and unemployment worsens.Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues.
Government commits to continued investment in large infrastructure projects – debt rises.
Government increases tax rates, freezes civil service wages.
National Economic Summit results in Growth and Investment Accord.
Government feels skills shortage as it tries to develop key high-tech SOEs – “winners”.
Improvement of skills through better education and artisan training is prioritised, but the returns are insufficient.
State borrows at high interest rates to fund growing deficit.
Election run on “Growth and Redistribution” ticket.
Country gets IMF loan conditional on sharp cut back in state Government tries to boost its capacity through greater coordination and training.
Expanded Public Works Programmes create more unskilled jobs.
Election campaign run on “pro-poor” platform.
Ruling party victory taken as mandate for even stronger state intervention in economy
s p o t sed, but t e etu s a e su c e t
Some “winners” become “losers”, with heavy costs to the fiscus.
Prescribed asset laws force private investment in large projects.
Country gets IMF loan conditional on sharp cut-back in state expenditure.
Widespread discontent and protests: government cracks down.
2020
p g jte e t o eco o y
WALK BEHIND: What the papers say
MESSAGE OF WALK BEHIND
State-led development requires the capacity for planning State-led development requires the capacity for planning, coordination and delivery.
L l t t j t i Large-scale state projects require heavy borrowings.
State directed investment weakens private initiative and state control creates citizen dependency.
Pervasive state intervention and control is thereforePervasive state intervention and control is therefore
unsustainable.
SCENARIO 3
WALKSCENARIO 3
WALKTOGETHERTOGETHER
SCENARIO 3: WALK TOGETHER
Ruling party retains majority.Healthcare and parent associations spread through the country.Economy begins slow recovery but insufficient to deal with deepening povertyGovernment focuses on delivering core public goods.
2020g p y j y
Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues.
Crisis pact wobbles along.
p p g y
Government promises action against incompetent managers and civil servants.
Improvements in service delivery
poverty.
A “Citizens’ Charter” is born.
A formal social pact emerges: it includes political parties, labour, business citizens’ groups
g p g
Business invests more, employment rises.
International investor confidence buoyed by co-operative governance.
Service delivery deteriorates.
Pockets of citizen groups take action over health, education, crime.
Improvements in service delivery.
Ruling party runs election campaign on ticket of competent government.
A k d li i d i f lli i h
business, citizens groups.
Business shoulders more responsibility in education, infrastructure, health.
Trade unions back measures to combat youth unemployment
Citizens lobby for more accountability from politicians; opposition parties take up the call.
Citizens, parliamentarians and courts effect change in voting system i i i iA weakened ruling party is returned to power; it forms alliance with
other parties.Trade unions back measures to combat youth unemployment.
Citizens work with government to monitor education, health, crime.
so politicians are directly accountable to voters.
2012 - 20142018 - 2020
BUILDING A
2009 - 2011
2012 2014
THE BLEAK YEARS
CITIZENS DEMAND MORE
BUILDING A NATION
2015 - 2017
YEARS
A SOCIAL PACT EMERGESToday
WALK TOGETHER : What the papers say
MESSAGE OF WALK TOGETHER
W dd iti l i d i l h ll g l if civil We can address our critical economic and social challenges only if civil society, business, labour and the state engage and cooperate.
Together we need to increase accountability, build the capacity of the state,
deliver core public services, and develop a common identity and
ti h d
We can succeed only if citizens and
nationhood.
e ca succeed o y c t e s a dleaders from all sectors rise above theirnarrow self-interests and contribute
t b ildi tipurposefully to building our nation.
COMPARISON OF THE SCENARIOS
W H A T ’ S N E X T ?
WHAT WILL YOU CHOOSE?
The three scenarios suggest three different possible futures for South gg pAfrica.
We are standing at a crossroads; each one of us, citizens and leaders, must g ; , ,choose how we walk forward.
Through the choices each one of us make we will create our nation’s Through the choices each one of us make, we will create our nation s future.
Wh t ill h d ? Wh ? H ? With h ?What will you choose to do? When? How? With whom?
What will your next step be?
DINOKENG PHASE II PLAN
Share the messages of the Dinokeng Scenarios with leaders and citizens.
Reach organisations, groups and communities across the country.
i t i lUse various material – reports, translations, opinion pieces, fact-sheets, DVD.
Extend targeted engagements – briefings, presentations, workshops.
Co-ordinate mass communications – print TV, radio, website.
Desired Result - to create spaces and a language for, open, reflective and reasonedes ed esu t to c eate spaces a d a a guage o , ope , e ect e a d easo edstrategic conversation among South Africans about possible futures for the country, and theopportunities, risks and choices these futures present.
What can you and I do to respond to these scenarios and to build a better future for South Africa?
“If you want to walk fast, walk alone.If you want to walk far walk together ”If you want to walk far, walk together.
(African Proverb)