putting hydropower and renewables in context
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3rd Mekong Forum on Water, Food & Energy 2013. Presentation from Session 12: Alternative electricity sources and planning for the Mekong.TRANSCRIPT
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN
MEKONG POWER SUPPLY (MK14)
CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013
Putting hydropower and renewables in context
John Sawdon
Contents
Part 1: Overview of the project
Part 2: Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or complements?
Part 3: Introduction of sessions 12 and 14
Overview of the project
Project objectives
Assess the potential role of renewables in the regional power generation mix
Enhance the evidence base on renewable energy potential
Identify barriers to renewable energy having a more substantial contribution to power supply
Scope
Project sought to build on existing work in the region Numerous studies of renewables policy, deployment
and potential More recent strategic environmental assessment of the
power sector in the GMS
Project focused upon where it was able to add-value Country power sector contexts extremely varied (RE
and HP capacity, available resources etc.) – facing different challenges
Combination of review of international experience, secondary data collection from the region and case studies of key problems
Synthesis report and issues papersReview of regional barriers to
renewables expansion and diffusion and recommendations
Meeting energy needs: hydropower compared with renewables
Case studies to ‘ground-truth’ reviewCambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
Literature review of international experience
Renewable energy technology review Barriers to renewable energy deployment
Regional reviews and papers
Vietnam case study on meeting peak demand
with solar PV
CCDE
Cambodia study on rice husk gasification
Thailand study on current policy
framework for RE and lessons for other
countries
Lao PDR study on small hydropower
Project partne
rs
Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or compliments?
Technology choice in the power sector
Electricity demand
The regional context of rapid economic growth and structural change is driving growing electricity demand
Sector plans over-estimate demand and underestimate potential demand-side measures (EE, DSM)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,0000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)
kW
h/c
ap
ita
Korea 1971 - 2011
USA1960 - 2011
Japan 1960 - 2011
Germany1970 - 2011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)
kW
h/c
ap
ita
Putting regional power consumption growth in the global context
Vietnam 1984 - 2011
China 1971 - 2011
Malaysia 1971 - 2011
Thailand 1971 - 2011
Cambodia 1995 - 2011
Source: based on data from IEA 2013, World Bank 2013
Technology choices in the PDPs
2012 20250
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Nuclear Coal/ lignite GasLarge hydro Renewables Cogen/others
GW
Hydro: Increase from18.2 GW to 36 GWIncrease in number of plants from 69 to 162
Could this additional 17.8 GW of hydropowercapacity be met through alternative renewables technologies?
RE: Increase from 3.5 GW to 16.5 GW
Source: ADB TA 7764 REG
Renewables potential in the LMB
TechnologyAddtional
technical LMB potential (MW)
Load factor (%)
Generation (GWh)
Wind 7,600 25 16,644 Solar 73,230 18 115,469 Geothermal 391 90 3,083 Small hydro 6,991 50 30,621 Biomass / biogas 1,602 60 8,420 Total 90,115 174,236
Additional planned HP 17,750 50 87,203
Source: Based upon ADB TA 7764 REG data
Different technologies different roles
Modern power systems based upon a centralized grid structure
Large scale generation (inc. large hydro power) supplies transmission grid and large industrial users
Renewables offers a different kind of service: Smaller scale Connected to lower voltage network Producer-consumers with very small
generation units (e.g. roof top solar)
Potential niche for RE for off-grid consumers Not a significant source of demand Limited by rapid expansion of grid
Comparing hydropower and renewables
Large scale Supply to
transmission grid Base load and
peaking Can have significant
storage Relatively cheap Well understood Provides ancillary
services
Small scale modular Supply to low voltage
distribution network Not dispatchable (“must
run”) (solar/wind) Seasonal and daily
variability Currently expensive Not well understood,
implications for wide scale deployment still being worked out
Hydropower (>30 MW) Renewables
Comparing generation technologies
Technology Typical characteristics
Capital costs (USD/kW)
Typical energy costs (USc/kWh)
Large hydroCapacity: 30 – 18,000 +
MWLoad factor: 30 – 60%
Projects >300 MW: <2,000
Projects 30 - 300 MW: 2,000 –4,000
2–12
Small hydro Capacity: <30 MWLoad factor: 20 – 60% 1,175–3,500 5 - 40
Wind* Turbine size: 1.5–3.5 MW Load factor: 25–40%
1,750–1,770925–1,470 (China and
India)4–16
Solar PV**Peak capacity: 2.5–250
MW Load factor: 10–25%
1,300–1,950 9 - 40
Geothermal Plant size: 1–100 MWLoad factor: 60–90%
2,100 – 6,100 6 - 14
Biomass/biogas
Plant size: 1–200 MWLoad factor: 50 – 90% 800–4,500 5.5–20* On-shore; **Ground mounted utility scale Source: REN21, 2013
Compliments not substitutes?
Variability of renewables can pose problems for electricity grids
Variability of wind output in April 2009 (California)
Source: http://integrating-renewables.org/
High penetration renewables will require significantly different systems
http://integrating-renewables.org/
Many geographically dispersed RE or RE technologies of different types may smooth intermittency
High penetration RE (>10 – 30%) will likely require additional back-up capacity which can respond quickly to variations in renewables output: Gas Hydropower
Using conventional technologies to smooth intermittency will imply different institutional arrangements – may prove difficult for hydropower
Compliments not substitutes? Hydropower’s flexibility in power generation can act to
smooth the variability of supply from renewables generation – significant challenges for the management of HP projects
Higher penetration of RE technologies may be possible because significant hydropower capacity in the region
This is not to say that more hydropower is necessarily needed to enable effective integration of renewables into grid systems - but that synergies are likely to exist
Key messages
No simple choice exists between alternative renewables technologies and hydropower
Medium and large hydropower projects currently fulfill different roles in electricity systems to that which can be played by renewables
There are significant potential synergies between renewables and hydropower – although realizing them would imply a significant amount of work ensuring the institutional framework is in place
This may change as the economics, institutions and technologies of regional electricity systems change
But the outcomes of these changes are far from certain – there is still a lot to be done
Enhancing the role of renewables 1. Technological potential and dynamic
cost considerations (Tim Suljada, ICEM) 2. Thailand’s experience of renewable
energy policy (Jiab Tongsopit, ERI) 3. The role of solar PV in Vietnam (Nguyen
Quoc Khanh, ICEM) 4. Bridging the gap in renewables
deployment (Alex Kenny, ICEM) 5. Impacts of small hydropower on
fisheries (Garry, Thorncroft, MK15)
Thank you
Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013John Sawdon ([email protected])