putting it all together - university of sussexusers.sussex.ac.uk/~prfh0/risk theme 9 - putting it...
TRANSCRIPT
Putting it all Together
1: The Precautionary Principle
3: Implementing Precaution
science, precaution and innovation in risk management
2: Science and Precaution
4: Constructive Technology Assessment
5: Diversity, Flexibility and Resilience
6: Robust Risk Management
Science in Risk Policy
“ … this government's approach is to
make decisions on GM crops on the
basis of sound science. “
„Sound science‟ and „science-based policy‟
Tony Blair, House of Commons, 10 November 2003
A widespread and influential view
- science as a source of authority, justification and „closure‟
- hedge against irrational precaution and uninformed public
The Challenge of Precaution
Many different forms since 1972 Stockholm Environment Conference
“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective
measures to prevent environmental degradation”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
Current form in “Vorsorgeprinzip” in 1970‟s German environment policy
Widely adopted in 1980‟s in international marine pollution conventions
London, OSPAR, North Sea
Subsequently spreads to variety of other environmental and health fields
1992 Biodiversity Convention, 1990 EC Directive 90/220
Now major issue in European Harmonisation and global trade liberalisation
Amsterdam Treaty, WTO, SPS, TBT, Codex
GENERAL ATTITUDES
OPPONENTS ACCUSE
fundamentalism
anti-science
subjectivism
short sightedness
blinkers
idealism
technophobia
The Background to Precaution
PROPONENTS CLAIM
humility
inclusivity
pluralism
long-termism
holism
biocentrism
ecological modernisation
The Background to Precaution
LACK OF EVIDENCE OF HARM
PARTICULAR FEATURES
proportionality: match broad costs to benefits of regulation
IS NOT THE SAME AS
EVIDENCE OF LACK OF HARM
ASSOCIATED PRINCIPLES
prevention: rather than a focus on cleaning up impacts
polluter pays: damage costs borne by those responsible
no regrets: prioritise actions which satisfy all aims
substitution: phase out where there are preferable alternatives
clean technology: pursue only environmentally sound innovation
• When uncertainties are cited as grounds for delay in regulation
Some Triggers for Precaution
• Where there are conflicting views among experts, agencies or disciplines
• Where there is an acute lack of trust in market or regulatory institutions
• Where effects are irreversible
• Where risks display certain key features
hazard properties, eg: carcino- / muta- / terato- genicity
exposure potentials, eg: persistence, bioaccumulation
policy characteristics, eg: transboundary, maldistribution, global commons
• Where insurance is impossible to obtain without special legislation
• Where there are serious questions over need or alternatives
• Where timescales of innovation and regulation mismatch
Precautionary Measures in Regulation
shift burdens of persuasion in favour of affected, not proponents
„evidentiary presumptions‟ hazard properties or exposure potentials
drive up minimum standards force market behaviour
reverse listing specify what is (rather than not) permitted
provide blame incentives executive responsibility
corporate manslaughter
strict or absolute liability
„command and control‟ bans (phthalates)
moratoria (commercial gm crops),
phase-outs (HHC‟s)
forcing targets (GHG‟s)
(ie: „onus of persuasion‟
„level of proof‟
„responsibility for evidence‟ )
Precautionary Strategies for Industry
mandatory insurance and restoration requirements
deposit / refund schemes and assurance bonds
waste prevention audits and total quality management
duty of care and continuous performance improvement
long term surveillance and monitoring of impacts
emergency planning, education and training
Concerns over the Precautionary Principle
“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective
measures to prevent environmental degradation”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
Ambiguous as a „science based‟ „decision rule‟
threat? seriousness? irreversibility? full scientific certainty? cost-effective?
How to ensure that precautionary interventions are proportionate?
Major international political tensions: Kyoto, WTO, GM, Chemicals
Prompts unfavourable comparison with „sound scientific‟ approaches
(eg: risk assessment, cost-benefit analysis, life cycle assessment)
Strong limits set on precaution :
only in risk management - always based on risk assessment
Ambiguity in Risk Assessment
IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ELECTRICITY GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES
UNDER ASSUMPTIONS OF 32 OFFICIAL STUDIES (1980-1996)
impact as US c/kWh, 1990 base low impact high impact
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
not
problematic
problematic
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment
routine flood risk
transport safety
known diseases
floods under climate change
many carcinogens
specific novel pathogen
different effects: deaths vs injuries,
questions: acceptable? / safe? / best?
views: toxicology / epidaemiology
unknown mechanisms: CFC
excluded end-points: EDCs
unknown pathogens: BSE
not
problematic
problematic
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
INCERTITUDE
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment
not
problematic
problematic
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
PREVENTION
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment
not
problematic
problematic
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
PRECAUTION
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
not
problematic
problematic
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
A Range of Practical Tools
probabilistic risk assessment
cost benefit analysis
Bayesian methods
smaller ‘safety factors’
larger ‘uncertainty factors’
sensitivity / scenario analysis
interval analysis, proof onus
decision heuristics
sensitivity / scenario analysis
fuzzy logic, Q-method
multi-criteria mapping
participatory deliberation
interdisciplinarity
extended foresight
research and monitoring
diversity, flexibility, resilience
Traditional Idea
Process and Analysis
HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
RISK
ASSESSMENT
RISK
EVALUATION
RISK
MANAGEMENT
RISK
COMMUNICATION
prescriptive
recommendation
Emerging Picture
HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
RISK
ASSESSMENT
RISK
EVALUATION
RISK
MANAGEMENT
RISK
COMMUNICATION
prescriptive
recommendation
Process and Analysis
Traditional Idea
Open-ended Process
HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
RISK
ASSESSMENT
RISK
EVALUATION
RISK
MANAGEMENT
RISK
COMMUNICATION
prescriptive
recommendation
Process and Analysis
Rigid Decision Rules
Rigid Decision Rules
Open-ended Process
PRECAUTIONARY
PRINCIPLE
PRECAUTIONARY
APPROACH
“Where there are threats of
serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a reason
for postponing cost-effective
measures to prevent
environmental degradation”
Process and Analysis
• humility over the role of science
• engage citizens & stakeholders
• explore different framings
• address options at earliest stages
• involve wider disciplines
• scrutinize burdens of persuasion
• enhance the role of monitoring
• consider pros as well as cons
Precautionary lessons from chemicals
extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance
real world effects of CFCs; MTBE, PCBs as ‘closed systems’
humble science sensitivities & proxies: mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation
omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE, CFCs
active research prioritise targetted research and open-ended monitoring
no research: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs
deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion
Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored
alternative options pros, cons & justifications for range of options & substitutes
ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain
engage public provides independence of interests and robustness on values
BSE, benzene, DES, asbestos, acid rain, fisheries
social learning beyond „usual suspects‟; collect „transdisciplinary‟ knowledge
MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets
Science and Precaution Revisited
SCIENTIFIC
DISCIPLINE
compare pros and cons of different options
shift burdens of persuasion
address ignorance through monitoring and resilience
extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects
systematic
sceptical
peer reviewed
independent
accountable
learning
ELEMENTS OF PRECAUTION
engage different disciplines and stakeholders
Science and Precaution Revisited
SCIENTIFIC
DISCIPLINE
systematic
sceptical
peer reviewed
independent
accountable
learning
RISK
ASSESSMENT
PRECAUTIONARY
APPRAISAL
compare pros and cons of different options
shift burdens of persuasion
address ignorance through monitoring and resilience
extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects
engage different disciplines and stakeholders
ELEMENTS OF PRECAUTION BROADEN SCOPE OF REGULATORY PROCESS
RISK
ASSESSMENT
PRECAUTIONARY
APPRAISAL
BROADEN SCOPE OF APPRAISAL PROCESS
SCIENTIFIC
DISCIPLINE
systematic
sceptical
peer reviewed
independent
accountable
learning
compare pros and cons of different options
shift burdens of persuasion
address ignorance through monitoring and resilience
extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects
engage different disciplines and stakeholders
Science and Precaution Revisited
Precaution and Foresight
Both are novel policy concepts and institutions emerging in the 1980‟s
Both embody aspirations to more effective social choice of technology
Both relate to the indeterminacy of innovation and its wider effects
Both originated as formulaic expert-led procedures
Both confronted serious credibility challenges in the later 1990‟s
Both responded by experimenting with more open inclusive processes
Do either properly and you‟re effectively doing both!
involving inclusive deliberation over broadly defined pros and cons of
technological alternatives under state of ignorance at early stages of innovation
Foresight: failure to anticipate key drivers and obstacles
Precaution: need to make simple normative prescription more operational
Both: need to acknowledge and address ambiguity and ignorance
Constructive Technology Assessment
A MODEL FOR PRECAUTIONARY FORESIGHT?
Developed in the Netherlands in the late 1980‟s
draws heavily on institutional economics and sociology of technology
looks at innovation explicitly as a socially constructed process
takes account of dynamics of momentum, lock-in and actor networks
focuses on research and demonstration as much as dissemination
Key Characteristics
transcends dichotomy between „promotion‟ and „control‟ of technology
opens up innovation networks to more pluralistic range of actors
emphasises flexibility, reflexivity and learning
“Look before you leap” / “a stitch in time saves nine”
after Rip et al (1995)
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
technological system
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application technological system
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application technological system
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
institutional context
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application technological system institutional context
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION
functional application technological system institutional context
CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks
CTA: The Bottom Line
space of technological
possibilities
time
space of technological
possibilities
time
CTA: The Bottom Line
TECHNOLOGIES CAN TAKE DIFFERENT EQUALLY-VIABLE PATHWAYS
CTA is about more deliberate construction and choice of particular pathway
space of technological
possibilities
time
CTA: The Bottom Line
space of technological
possibilities
time
CTA: The Bottom Line
TECHNOLOGIES CAN TAKE DIFFERENT EQUALLY-VIABLE PATHWAYS
CTA is about more deliberate construction and choice of particular pathway
about making more „resilient‟ technological choices
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
LIKELIHOODS
not
problematic
problematic
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
POSSIBILITIES
not
problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
Precaution, CTA and Engagement
engagement for:
scope, criteria,
weights, utility,
risk aversion
engagement for:
sensitivity ranges,
decision heuristics,
lay knowledge
engagement for:
questions, asssumptions, boundaries,
priorities, values, meanings, interests,
deliberative judgements, social learning
engagement for:
scenarios, horizons, proof, persuasion
monitoring, research, innovation,
diversity, flexibility, resilience
AMBIGUITY
Practical response to irreducible ignorance
Technological Resilience and Robustness
Robustness sustain functions in shifting conditions
Resilience sustain functions under transient shocks
Flexibility individual technologies adapt to conditions
Diversity hedge with multiple structures
Ignorance can be located at different points in process
Institutional Ignorance
Societal Ignorance
Irreducible Ignorance
Even where the problem can‟t be fully defined,
there may yet be a robust response
audit, interdisciplinarity, public engagement
research, monitoring, „horizon scanning‟
Humility, robustness, resilience, flexibility
DIVERSITY MAY BE PARTICULARLY INTERESTING
The Multiple Qualities of Diversity
ADDRESSES AMBIGUITY accommodates divergent perspectives
HEDGES IGNORANCE avoids “all the eggs in one basket”
MITIGATES „LOCK-IN‟ sustains more flexible portfolios
FOSTERS ROBUSTNESS catalyses more sustainable innovation
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS
increasing diversity
VARIETY
(number of options)
VARIETY
(number of options)
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS
increasing diversity
increasing diversity
VARIETY
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
increasing diversity
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
increasing diversity
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
DISPARITY
(differences between
options)
increasing diversity
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
DISPARITY
(differences between
options)
increasing diversity
A Definition of Diversity
DIVERSITY HAS
DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
DISPARITY
(differences between
options)
Divergent interests
and perspectives
can be accommodated,
even if they
cannot be optimised
A Definition of Diversity
VARIETY
(number of options)
BALANCE
(reliance on
options)
DISPARITY
(differences between
options)
Good surprises harnessed,
bad surprises forestalled,
flexibility and learning
enhanced -
“don’t put all your eggs
in one basket”
Practical Lessons for Risk Management
“SCIENCE SHOULD BE „ON TAP, NOT ON TOP‟ ”
no simple „analytical fixes‟ for complexities of technological risk
„best available science‟ is necessary, not sufficient condition
science typically „under-determines‟ options for action
„sound science‟ and „science based‟ decision making is rhetoric
can serve to conceal assumptions, values and interests
as important to validate subjective „framing assumptions‟ as science
eg: nature of problem, choice of options, relevant issues,
interests and priorities, possible surprises, system attributes
public engagement is about analytical rigour, not „political correctness‟
Practical Lessons for Risk Management
“DON‟T THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER”
wide variety of effective practical tools and procedures
appraisal tools, eg: uncertainty, scenario and sensitivity analysis
methods, eg: multi-criteria appraisal, constructive TA
procedures, eg: citizen panels. focus groups, deliberative polls
scientific disciplines provide for rigour and transparency
constrain (tho‟ not determine) the domain of reasonable options
“decisions have to be made”
justify in terms of professional judgement not just „definitive analysis‟
democratic legitimacy
political accountability
the role of risk appraisal is to „open up‟ rather than „close down‟
Practical Lessons for Risk Management
“LEARN AS YOU GO” - some tools covered in this course
METHODS: “horses for courses”
not just risk assessment – different tools valid in different contexts
uncertainty analysis, multi-criteria mapping
FRAMEWORKS: broaden appraisal procedures
framings, complexities, pros and cons, options, values, interests, innovation
precautionary appraisal, constructive technology assessment
PROCESS: focus on effective social and organisational learning
not “analysis / deliberation”, “blame / no blame” – but of links between these
participatory deliberation, stakeholder negotiation, ‘deliberative mapping’
ENGAGEMENT: full attention to contention and dissent
as important as organised scepticism in risk science
‘plural and conditional’ advice – ‘opening up’ not ‘closing down’
EXPECTATIONS: “don‟t put all the eggs in one basket” diversity in regulatory outcomes not only inevitable, but also desirable
think about diversity, resilience and flexibility