putting policy makers first
DESCRIPTION
Putting Policy Makers First. Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering www.synthesisips.net [email protected]. Introduction. Bank of England for 9 years Hedge Fund for 4 years Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Putting Policy Makers First
Putting Policy Makers First
Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering
www.synthesisips.net
Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering
www.synthesisips.net
IntroductionIntroduction
Bank of England for 9 years
Hedge Fund for 4 years
Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011
Bank of England for 9 years
Hedge Fund for 4 years
Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011
• Think Tank (policy intermediary)
• Centred around Complexity Theory
• Emerging Theme: Complexity Engineering
• Think Tank (policy intermediary)
• Centred around Complexity Theory
• Emerging Theme: Complexity Engineering
Why we are here...?Why we are here...?
Introducing: SharonIntroducing: Sharon
Complexity & Policy:How it works at the
moment
Complexity & Policy:How it works at the
moment
ok, I’m listening
That’s a pity. So what?
Ah well, you should be
aware when deciding
things that the world is not
deterministicComplexity Boffin
Complexity Boffin
Policy MakerPolicy Maker
What does that mean
for me?
*shrugs*, and?
and wave goodbye to
your funding!
There are these things
called emergent
phenomena. They’re terribly
important and It’s all a bit technical
Well, pattern recognition
helps because life seems to be a mix of
evolving patterns,
global cascades,
black swans, and things like
that.
Angela! I want to tell you about complex systems!
They’re amazing! Did you know that the future of a social systems is inherently
unknowable?!
Please leave now via that window
How It could WorkHow It could Work
Of course! Where do I begin?!...
Angela, could you tell me what your problems
are?
Complexity Boffin
Complexity Boffin
Policy MakerPolicy Maker
I would like to help by using
some new approaches to social systems.
Science & EngineeringScience & Engineering
Complexity Sciences
Complexity Sciences
Policy MakerPolicy MakerComplexity EngineeringComplexity Engineering
Intermediaries (like Think Tanks)Intermediaries (like Think Tanks)
Policy MakerPolicy MakerSharonSharon
Scientists & EngineersScientists & Engineers
Rigorous ThinkingRigorous Thinking
Scientific PrinciplesScientific Principles
Funky Tools like ABMFunky Tools like ABM
Imaginative Thinking to marry science & policyImaginative Thinking to marry science & policy
Engineering PrinciplesEngineering Principles
Empathy with policymakersEmpathy with policymakers
Internal dialogue: jargon mostly okInternal dialogue: jargon mostly ok
Clear articulation to laymanClear articulation to layman
Some Engineering Principles?
Some Engineering Principles?
Old Paradigm: one expert, correct model, add data = endogenous policy choice
But: society evolving, idiosyncrasies matter, & no-one can know whole terrain in wicked problem
Key principles:
Old Paradigm: one expert, correct model, add data = endogenous policy choice
But: society evolving, idiosyncrasies matter, & no-one can know whole terrain in wicked problem
Key principles:
• Crowd source views of policy space from multiple stakeholders
• Crowd source views of policy space from multiple stakeholders
• Pattern recognition of “policy space”• Pattern recognition of “policy space”
• Repeat back to test pattern recognition• Repeat back to test pattern recognition
• Consider policy options• Consider policy options
Example: Multiple & Severe Disadvantages
Example: Multiple & Severe Disadvantages
Round-Table Discussion: policy makers first
UK Care delivery is silo-based
People = Sum of care requirements
Sharon: 8 application forms for unemployment, childcare, drug abuse, homelessness, psychologist, etc.
Idea: tailored care for 5% of care cases - devolved authority
Round-Table Discussion: policy makers first
UK Care delivery is silo-based
People = Sum of care requirements
Sharon: 8 application forms for unemployment, childcare, drug abuse, homelessness, psychologist, etc.
Idea: tailored care for 5% of care cases - devolved authority
Publish on web as a “wiki”: additions & Evolution
Publish on web as a “wiki”: additions & Evolution
Moving Forward: Project IdeaMoving Forward: Project Idea
Learn from examples
Learn from examples
Learn from Complexity Consultants
Learn from Complexity Consultants
Prototype Tools
Prototype Tools
Apply to multiple Policy
Terrains
Apply to multiple Policy
TerrainsUse in PolicyUse in Policy
Learning Feedback
Loop
Learning Feedback
Loop
Mature Tools
Mature Tools
Q & AQ & A