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May 26th 2020
Q1 2020
Results Presentation
This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A.. This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. Some statements in this presentation are forward-looking, based on assumptions and current expectations of future events. Although The Navigator Company, S.A. believes that these were reasonable when made, such statements are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks and contingencies, which relate to factors that are beyond the ability of The Navigator Company, S.A. to control or estimate precisely, such as international economic conditions, foreign exchange fluctuations, credit markets, the cost of raw materials, legal and regulatory requirements, including measures adopted in connection with the prevention of the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 and that could cause actual results to differ substantially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Except as required by any applicable law or regulation, The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person assumes no obligation whatsoever to update the information contained in this presentation or to notify a reader in the event that any matter stated herein changes or becomes inaccurate.
DISCLAIMER
1
2
Executive Directors
António Redondo
Adriano Silveira
Fernando Araújo
João Lé
João Paulo Oliveira
Nuno Santos
Investor Relations Joana Appleton
PARTICIPATION <<
3
Q1 2020 RESULTS PRESENTATION
Covid-19 Impact & Outlook
Market & Group
Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
4
• Significant improvement in operational performance across the Group´s mills
• Beginning of 2020 marked by a very strong recovery in our paper order book
• Difficult comparison with Q1 2019, as UWF prices reached a peak in that period; but Q1 2020 was the second highest first quarter in terms of turnover and the third highest in terms of UWF sales volume
• Production costs evolved positively (fixed and variable) throughout the quarter
• Lower pulp and paper prices in the quarter vs Q1 2019 were partially offset by the recovery in sales volumes across pulp, paper and tissue, as well as cost performance
• Distribution of approximately € 100 million in reserves to shareholders in January
• Review and extension of the scope and depth of the cost reduction initiatives originally envisaged for 2020, in light of Covid-19
• Increase in immediate liquidity to € 256 million at the end of March, with all financial needs for 2020 assured
<< Q1 2020 – Strong improvement in operational performance
5
Turnover declined 3.8% YoY and 1.9% QoQ on the back of lower pulp and paper prices Increase in volumes sold and lower production costs (variable & fixed) mitigated decline in prices EBITDA totalled € 88 million; margin EBITDA / Sales of 21.8%, improving significantly QoQ Capex of € 22.7 million, focused on maintenance, recurring & environment Free cash flow remained strong at € 14.9 million, with lower capex and improvement in working capital Net Debt / EBITDA of 2.25 X remains at comfortable levels, after paying 100 M€ in reserves
<< Q1 2020 Financial Highl ights
In millions € Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Change QoQ
Q1 2019
Change YoY
Turnover 405.8 413.6 -1.9% 421.8 -3.8%
EBITDA 88.4 71.8 23.0% 104.9 -15.7%
EBITDA /Sales 21.8% 17.4% 4.4pp 24.9% -3.1pp
CAPEX 22.7 69.7 -47.0 32.5 -9.8
Free Cash Flow 14.9 60.8 -45.9 9.9 5.0
Remunerated Net Debt/EBITDA 2.25 1.92 0.33 1.51 0.74
6
Solid order book and increase in volumes sold led to a stable turnover UWF prices stabilized between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020, but present a 6% decline when compared to Q1 2019, when prices reached the highest level registered in the last 10 years In spite of further decline in pulp and paper prices, EBITDA grew 23% QoQ, sustained by improved volumes and lower costs Operating Cash Flow stood at 71 million, improving 20%, with moderate capex plan and careful working capital management
<< Main quarter highl ights
422 432 420 414 406
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
105 102 93 72
88
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
353
367
363 365
366
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
62 61
91 99
83
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
24 24 27
22
26
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
88 80 80 59 71
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
+0.4% -16% +20.5%
-1.9% +23%
+20%
Turnover (M €) Operational Cash
Flow (M €) EBITDA (M €)
Paper sales (Ktons) Pulp sales (Ktons) Tissue sales (Ktons)
7
<< EBITDA QoQ Analysis
Higher EBITDA QoQ as the significant improvement on the operational performance led to savings in both variable and fixed costs
1
29
R19 Q4
88
Price
-3
Volume
Other Costs R20 Q1
72
-10
+17 (+23%)
A C B
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
Wood
Chemicals
External fibers
Fixed costs
B Positive volume variation in UWF and particularly in Tissue to offset lower Pulp volumes (seasonally higher in Q4)
C Significant savings obtained on both variable costs, wood, energy and chemicals and external fibers; as well as in fixed costs, namely functioning costs
Lower prices across all business segments. UWF price showing resiliency (-0,2% QoQ)
A
8
<< EBITDA YoY Analysis
Decrease in prices from historically high levels offset by increase in volumes and cost savings (Wood, Chemicals, External Fibers and Fixed Costs)
13
19
R20 R19
-37
Price
Volume
Costs Other
88
105
-11
-17 (-16%)
A C B
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
Wood
Chemicals
External fibers
Fixed costs
B Positive volume variation across the board balanced the negative impact of net price reduction
C Positive impact of variable costs: wood, chemicals and external fibers; as well as savings in fixed costs, namely functioning costs
Higher Tissue prices offsetting UWF and Pulp price decreases
A
9
Q1 2020 RESULTS PRESENTATION
Covid-19 Impact & Outlook
Market & Group
Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16
Eur
/ Ton
USD
/ T
on
Week
PIX Europe
10
USD/ton BHKP EUR/ton BHKP
2016 2015 2014 2017 2018 2019
<<
YTD 2020
PULP PRICES REMAIN LOW BUT STABLE THROUGHOUT Q1 2020
With market discounts increasing, net prices are currently at the lowest level since 2014
Av. 2016: 693 $ 626 €
Av. 2017: 826 $ 729 €
Av. 2018: 1036 $ 868 €
Av. 2019: 855 $ 762 €
Av. 2015: 784 $ 707 €
Av. 2014: 745 $ 562 €
Av. YTD: 680 $ 619 €
Average pulp prices
2014-18 2019 Q1 2020
USD 817 855 680
Var $ 255 -337 0
EUR 701 762 616
Var € 333 -280 17
11
RECAP ON THE PULP MARKET
• Worldwide pulp demand grew +13% YTD February, with an estimated performance for Q1 2020 in line or slightly above (approximately + 15% YoY)
• Supply was affected by unplanned stoppages and production cuts, particularly in short fiber from Asian producers whilst in Europe the labor strikes from the pulp and paper sector in Finland contributed to these lower levels
• Benchmark for BHKP in USD/ton remained stable in Europe at 680$/ton during Q1 2020 (-31% YoY) whereas the benchmark in €/ton fell 29% as a consequence of a dollar appreciation
• Prices remained at the bottom during most Q1, both in Europe and in China, creating pressure on producers, who have attempted several price increases in both softwood and hardwood; the latest announcements were made in April and May in the main pulp consumption regions
• Hardwood Capacity should remain relatively stable during 2020 and 1H2021, until start-up of capacity in Chile
<<
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16
Eur/
Ton
Week
2014 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2020
Av. 2015 822 € (Var. W1-52: +2.3%)-
Av. 2014: 827 € (Var. W1-52: -2.5%)
Source: FOEX
EUROPEAN MARKET PAPER PRICE – A4 B-COPY
12
PAPER PRICES CORRECTING IN Q1 2020
Av. 2016: 823 € (Var. W1-52: -3.5%)
Av. 2017: 815 € (Var. W1-52: +4.1%)
Av. 2018: 873 € (Var. W1-52:+9.0%)
<<
Av. 2019: 903 € (Var. W1-52: -2.7%)
Average A4 B-Copy price
Av. YTD: 859 €
2014-18 2019 Q1 2020
EUR 832 903 864
Var € 67 -25 -24
13
D E M A N D
P U L P P R I C E
Demand weakening by the end of Q1, with the impact of the pandemic and consequent lockdown measures clearly affecting paper consumption; UWF global demand fell 6.4% in Q1 2020, (Europe declining 3.9% in Q1, but Asia severely impacted in March). Coated Woodfree and mechanical grades significantly more impacted (-11% and -13% respectively); still, the adjustment in demand may not have been so harsh as apparent consumption seems to estimate, as the fall in imports and the very low paper inventories at the beginning of 2020 may have influenced this figure
Hardwood pulp prices have stabilized, remaining flat at 680 USD/ton since January 2020
Several producers announced capacity reduction due to the Covid-19 downtimes across the world, namely in Europe and in the USA for April, May and June (including NVG)
The benchmark for paper in Q1 2020 averaged 864 € which represents a fall of roughly 6% in comparison to the 914€ price average in Q1 2019. Current price level is equivalent to Q2 2018.
B A L A N C E S / D
P R I C E L E V E L
<< UWF Market Condit ions
14
NAVIGATOR PAPER & PULP PERFORMANCE
PAPER PERFORMANCE
• UWF output increased 5% YoY and 12% QoQ and sales volume increased 4% Q1 2020 vs Q1 2019, and remained flat from Q4 to Q1
• Order book close to record levels throughout most of Q1
• Average price for Q1 2020 was down 6% vs Q1 2019 and flat vs Q4
• Improved product mix with weight of mill brands increasing to 71% (+2.1 p.p. YoY)
• Increase in market share among European producers of 0.6 p.p.
PULP PERFORMANCE
• Production increased 7% Q1 2020 vs Q1 2019, and 8% from Q4 to Q1
• Sales volume increased 34% YoY with Navigator recovering sales in Europe and diversifying to other markets
• Higher volumes were not enough to offset the decrease in prices: pulp turnover decreased 12% YoY and 20% QoQ
<<
15
• Sales turnover increased to € 36 million, representing a growth of 8% YoY and 18% QoQ
• Global volume of tissue sold increased to 26 kton (+20% QoQ), sustained by the Covid-19 pandemic
• Sales mix improved YoY with the growth of the share of finished products (86% vs 74% in Q1 2019)
46% Consumer
45% Away-from-Home +C&C
9% Parent Reels
41% Portugal
34% Spain
25% Extra-Iberia
Revenue by segment
(Q1 2020)
Revenue by geography
(Q1 2020)
<< Record Performance in T issue
16
M €
CAPEX Q1 2020
22.7 6.6
2.4 13.7
CAPEX Q1 2020 Core Business improvement
Capex
Environment Maintenance, Efficiency
improvements & others
<< CAPEX OF € 22.7 Mi l l ion ( V S € 3 2 . 5 M i l l i o n )
Reduction in capex Q1 2020 of almost € 10 million vs. Q1 2019
32 36
20
70
23
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Capex over the last 5 Quarters (M €)
17
FREE CASH FLOW IMPROVEMENT
Free Cash Flow evolved positively to € 15 million and compares favorably with FCF of € 10 million in Q1 2019; increase in clients and inventories in Q1 reflect change vs. year-end 2019,
where a significant effort was made to anticipate receivables and when inventories are traditionally low
M €
<<
22.7
10.5
14.9
70.7
4
8.2
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OperatingCash Flow
CAPEX Inventories Clients State & PublicEntities
Suppliers Other Free CashFlow
43
8.1
18
NET DEBT at € 800 MILLION
617
738 742 693
559
740 732 683 677
796 776 715
800
1.6 1.8 1.9
1.7
1.3
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
1.8 1.9 1.9
2.3
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Net debt Net debt/EBITDA
M €
Net debt increased € 85M* vs year-end 2019, after the Group proceeded to the distribution of € 100 million in reserves in January
* Without IFRS 16
<<
Current Average Cost of Debt
19
Debt Rate Profile (March 2020):
Fixed Variable
67% 33%
Navigator increased significantly its short term liquidity to 256 M€ at the end of March and has no significant repayments in 2020
Debt maturity profile
Total debt: € 1,055.2 million Average maturity: 3 years
118
287
53
299
100 76
123
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-2028
<< Conservative Debt Profile
20
Q1 2020 RESULTS PRESENTATION
Covid-19 Impact & Outlook
Market & Group
Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
21
People Community Business Continuity
Ensuring a prompt response to unprecedented times
<< Execut ive Committee focus
on Covid-19 context
22
Contingency plan drawn in Februrary, progressively updated design to protect the health of all employees, their families and our communities, as well as our suppliers and clients
Implementation of preventive, sanitisation and strict containment measures across the mills
Home-office to roughly 940 employees
Distribution of protection equipment and implementation of temperature control mechanism at all the mills
<< Act ions taken to take care o f our People
23
Donation of safety equipment to the Hospital of Setúbal and Hospital of Aveiro and to the paediatric ward of the Hospital of Setúbal
Jointly donation of the latest radiology to District Hospital of Figueira da Foz*
Paper initiatives: donation to 3600 children from needy families in order to support school activities and the joint initiative with Portugal’s largest graphic papers distributor allowing 1500 points of sale the possibility to print their customers’ documents during lockdown and distributing 100,000 paper bags
Measures to support our suppliers, most of which are small & mid.size companies, allowing them to continue to operate as our business partners and as providers of the Portuguese Economy
*Reduces the diagnosis time, the risk of infection and the number of times the exams are repeated, decreasing substantially the radiation doses on the patients
<< Act ions taken to take care o f our
Community
24
Creation of a Crisis Management Office in charge of managing and overseeing the evolution of Covid-19
Business continuity plan: support across the supply chain, control of operations at all mill sites and significant reinforcement of IT systems (allowing for almost 1000 employees to work from home and increasing networks security)
Close monitoring of raw materials and maintenance rescheduled
Maintain a comfortable and robust liquid position at €256 million vs €160 million in the end of 2019
<< Act ions taken to take care o f our Business
25
Deteriorating market conditions as result of Covid-19
Consequences of Lockdown
With schools, universities and offices closing, the sudden and unexpected economic slowdown affected Navigator’s main markets and had a direct impact on its clients and paper consumption
Partial stoppage of Paper production
End of March marked by a downturn in order book
From April 21st paper machines reduced production from 700 to 2000 tons per day, until end of June
Pulp adjustment
Pulp production was adjusted according to the needs
Aveiro is producing under business-as-usual
Solid performance on Tissue division
Tissue Mill in V. V. de Rodão is working without restrictions and Aveiro’s mill registered record operating levels in March
<<
26
Suppliers
Balance mill’s needs while securing our suppliers’ activities
Support small & mid size suppliers with know-how and guidance
Liquidity
Increase immediate liquidity to € 256 M resulting from revolving credit facilities increment + € 95 million unused facilities
Additional € 65 M of short-term financing guaranteed in April
Capex
Capital expenditure for 2020 revised from an estimated €158 million to € 70 million
Efficiency and cost reduction programmes
Annual target for reduction in fixed costs in 2020 of € 45 million
Responsive measures taken to secure business well being
Prompt measures to preserve business well being
<<
PULP PAPER
• Increase in NVG pulp sales in Q2 as a result of lower integration needs and increase in capacity implemented in 2018
• Improvement in global demand for pulp, sustained by China and recovery in Europe
• Accommodation of operations and maintenance activities
TISSUE
• Continued growth is perceived in Q2, but decline in economic activity (namely in tourism) may impact tissue demand
• More benefits attached to scale
economies
• Trade-off between demand of the At Home segment and Away from Home should prevail
27
• Q2 will be very challenging and marked by great uncertainty
• Recovery will depend on the rhythm of reduction in lockdown measures
• Demand is expected to fall significantly in
Q2 in Europe and USA, with gradual recovery by year end
• NVG reduced paper production will last from April 21st until end of June
• Q2 is estimated to be the most difficult quarter for UWF sales, and May probably the most difficult month; some positive signs in orders have emerged very recently which allow to expect a slight improvement starting in June
Short-term outlook and challenges for 2020
<<
May 26th 2020
Q1 2020
Results Presentation