Q2 2013 April-June

Jobs Outlook Survey Report

Published by the Society for Human Resource Management

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Half of HR professionals are con� dent that the U.S. economy will add jobs in the second quarter of 2013, according to the newest Jobs Outlook Survey (JOS) by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM). Optimism in labor market growth is up from the end of 2012, perhaps due to positive hiring reports from the government in early 2013 and data that show the U.S. economy is still growing, albeit unevenly, under adverse conditions.

The JOS examines hiring and recruiting trends across a six-month spectrum. The results for the second quarter of 2013 show that hiring activity will be strong during the April-June timeframe, and layoff rates will also remain low. Among the survey’s highlights:

■ A total of 50% of respondents have some level of con� dence in the U.S. job market for the second quarter of 2013 and expect job growth: 41% are somewhat optimistic about job growth in the United States, and another 9% are very optimistic and anticipate job growth during the quarter (see Figure 1A). These numbers represent a modest increase from the fourth quarter of 2012, when a combined 45% of respondents expressed some level of optimism about job growth in the labor market. It is also a slight drop from the second quarter of 2012, when a combined 58% of respondents expressed some level of optimism about job creation.

■ In the second quarter of 2013, 44% of respondents will conduct hiring, up from 35% in the second quarter of 2012. Among employer categories, medium-sized companies (those with 100 to 499 employees) will be the most likely to add jobs (47% of those surveyed) in the second quarter (see Figures 2A-2D).

■ In the � rst quarter of 2013, 49% of companies added jobs, up from 40% in the � rst quarter of 2012. Another 11% decreased staf� ng levels in the � rst quarter of 2013, nearly unchanged from 10% a year ago (see Figures 3A-3D).

SHRM’s JOS report examines hiring and recruiting trends based on a biannual survey of public- and private-sector human resource professionals who have a direct role in the staf� ng decisions at their companies. Respondents come from small, medium and large companies from around the United States and belong to a variety of for-pro� t, nonpro� t and government entities.

For the second quarter of 2013, a combined 25% of respondents have concerns about the job market and anticipate job cuts in the U.S. labor force (20% are somewhat pessimistic and expect further losses in jobs, 5% are very pessimistic). This number is up from a combined level of

JOBS OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT

Q2 2013 (April-June)

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OPTIMISM ABOUT JOB GROWTH IN Q2 2013 (APRIL-JUNE)

Source: SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey (April-June 2013)

Note: Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Note: Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Note: States that belong to each region surveyed in the JOS are as follows:

Northeast: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont

Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin

Southeast: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia

West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

Figure 1A | Optimism About Job Growth in the United States in Q2 2013

(n = 454)

Figure 1B | Optimism About Job Growth in the United States in Q2 2013 (by Region)

■ Very pessimistic about job growth, anticipating job losses■ Somewhat pessimistic about job growth, anticipating job losses■ Neither optimistic nor pessimistic about job growth■ Somewhat optimistic about job growth■ Very optimistic about job growth

West (n = 86)

Midwest (n = 154)

Southeast (n = 117)

Northeast (n = 63)

6% 42% 9%20% 23%

6% 37% 10%15% 31%

3%42% 10%24% 21%

2%24% 21% 49% 5%

Very optimistic about job growth

Somewhat optimistic about job growth

Neither optimistic nor pessimistic about job growth

Somewhat pessimistic about job growth, anticipating job losses

Very pessimistic about job growth, anticipating job losses

9%

25%

20%

41%

5%

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LOOKING AHEAD: Q2 2013 (APRIL-JUNE)

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18% one year ago, but down slightly from a combined 28% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

HR professionals’ degree of optimism varies across U.S. regions. Respondents from the Northeast are the most con� dent, at a combined level of 54% (49% are somewhat optimistic about job growth, 5% are very optimistic). Respondents from the Midwest have the lowest combined level of faith in the job market, at 47% (37% are somewhat optimistic, 10% are very optimistic about job growth).

With steady, if unspectacular, economic growth as of late, many employers are also holding the line on hiring. Exactly half of HR professionals surveyed said their companies will keep staf� ng levels � at during the second quarter of 2013. Following the third quarter of 2012, when gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a healthy 3.1%, GDP advanced only by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to a second estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, due in part to a decline in government spending.

Job creation is typically one of the last segments of the economy to bounce back in a recovery, but federal data show solid gains lately in the labor force. Employers added an average of 195,000 jobs from November 2012 through January 2013, and a preliminary estimate showed a gain of 236,000 jobs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Despite the payroll growth, the rolls of part-time workers and long-term unemployed have also remained high. Throughout 2012 and early 2013, more than 8 million people have been employed part time for “economic reasons,” either because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to � nd a full-time job, according to the BLS. On any given month, close to 5 million people are considered “long-term unemployed,” or without work for 27 weeks or more.

Looking ahead, the JOS results show that 44% of companies overall will conduct hiring during the second quarter of 2013. Among employment sectors, privately owned for-pro� t companies will be the most likely to create jobs during the quarter (48%). That sector is followed by publicly owned for-pro� t companies (45%), government entities (39%) and nonpro� ts (33%).

In employer size categories, medium-sized companies (100 to 499 employees) will hire at the highest rate in the second quarter of 2012 (47%), followed closely by small companies (one to 99 employees), 46% of which will hire, and large employers (500 or more employees) at 39%.

Only 6% of respondents said their organizations will conduct layoffs during the second quarter, the lowest layoff rate for the second quarter since the JOS was � rst issued in 2009. Government sector entities are the most likely to trim payrolls (10%), followed by publicly owned for-pro� t companies (9%), privately owned for-pro� t companies (5%) and the nonpro� t sector (4%).

Figure 2A | Planned Changes in Total Staff Level

(n = 422)

Will decrease total staff6%

Will increase total staff 44%

Will maintain total staff50%

Figure 2C | Planned Changes in Total Staff Level by Organization Sector

 Overall

(n = 422)

Publicly Owned For-Profi t (n = 76)

Privately Owned For-Profi t (n = 209)

Nonprofi t (n = 81)

Government(n = 31)

Will increase total staff 44% 45% 48% 33% 39%

Will maintain total staff 50% 46% 47% 63% 52%

Will decrease total staff 6% 9% 5% 4% 10%

Note: Respondents who answered “not sure” were excluded from this analysis. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

46%

Figure 2B | Planned Changes in Total Staff Level by Organization Staff Size

■ Small (1 to 99 employees) (n = 102)■ Medium (100 to 499 employees) (n = 135)■ Large (500 or more employees) (n = 168)

Note: Respondents who answered “not sure” were excluded from this analysis.

Will increase total staff

Will maintain total staff

Will decrease total staff

48%49%54%

47%

39%

6%4%

7%

Source: SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey (April-June 2013)

Figure 2D | Categories of Workers Companies Will Hire in Q2 2013

(n = 436)

Salaried individual contributor/professional

Labor, low-skilled

Labor, skilled (e.g., technician, mechanic)

Management (e.g., director, manager)

Administrative/secretarial

Contract/temporary positions

Executive (e.g., CEO, VP)

45%

20%

18%

7%

5%

3%

1%

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Hiring activity in the � rst quarter of 2013 was also very positive. Of the HR professionals surveyed, 49% said their companies created jobs in the January-March timeframe. This percentage was up from 40% in the � rst quarter of the 2012. Just 11% of HR professionals surveyed said their organizations conducted layoffs in the � rst quarter of 2013.

Among the 49% of respondents that did hire staff in the � rst quarter of 2013, medium-sized employers hired at the highest rate (54%), followed by small employers (52% of which added workers) and large companies (43% of which conducted hiring). Also among those employers that created jobs, 81% said they added full-time positions during the quarter, followed by part-time positions (10%), full-time contract/temporary positions (6%) and part-time contract/temporary positions (3%).

Some HR professionals said their hourly employees are spending more time on the job lately. Of those surveyed, 21% said nonexempt employees worked more hours in the � rst quarter of 2013 compared with the fourth quarter of 2012, up from a rate of 15% in the � rst quarter of 2012.

In some cases, employers’ struggles with � lling vacancies may be driving the rise in nonexempt workers’ hours. Weakened demand continues to be the obstacle for widespread job growth in the U.S. labor force, but other SHRM data show that many employers want to add jobs and cannot � nd properly skilled candidates to take those positions.

Recruiting dif� culty, which measures how dif� cult it is for HR professionals to � ll openings of “strategic importance” to their companies, was at a four-year high for the months of January and February in the service sector, according to SHRM’s monthly Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report. A separate November 2012 SHRM survey also showed that 43% of HR professionals said “obtaining human capital and optimizing human capital investments” would be the biggest investment challenge facing their organization during the next decade.

Nearly half of respondents (45%) in the JOS said the workers they had the most dif� culty hiring in the � rst quarter of 2013 were “salaried individual contributors/professionals,” such as analysts, nurses or engineers. Another 19% had dif� culty � nding skilled laborers, such as technicians and mechanics.

For the remainder of 2013, most economists and labor market observers are not forecasting major improvements in the U.S. economy and the job market, but rather a “slow and steady” progression for both.

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LOOKING BACK: Q1 2013 (JANUARY-MARCH)

Figure 3D | Categories of Workers Most Diffi cult to Hire in Q1 2013

Figure 3C | Changes in Total Staff Level by Organization Sector

 Overall

(n = 420)

Publicly Owned For-Profi t (n = 81)

Privately Owned For-Profi t (n = 221)

Nonprofi t (n = 87)

Government (n = 31)

Increased total staff 49% 54% 48% 48% 42%

Maintained total staff 40% 31% 40% 44% 55%

Decreased total staff 11% 15% 11% 8% 3%

Note: Respondents who answered “not sure” were excluded from this analysis. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Figure 3B | Changes in Total Staff Level by Organization Staff Size

■ Small (1 to 99 employees) (n = 113)■ Medium (100 to 499 employees) (n = 142)■ Large (500 or more employees) (n = 176)

Increased total staff

Maintained total staff

Decreased total staff

52% 54%

43%37%39%

43%

11%7%

14%

Figure 3A | Changes in Total Staff Level

Decreased total staff 11%

Increased total staff 49%

Maintained total staff 40%

(n = 464)

(n = 353)

Note: Respondents who answered “not sure” were excluded from this analysis.

Note: Respondents who answered “not applicable, all positions were relatively easy to fi ll” were excluded from this analysis.

Source: SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey (April-June 2013)

Note: Total may not equal 100% due to rounding; respondents who answered “not sure” were excluded from this analysis.

Salaried individual contributor (e.g., nurse, engineer)

Labor, skilled (e.g., technician, mechanic)

Management (e.g., director, manager)

Labor, low-skilled

Administrative/secretarial

Executive (e.g., CEO, VP)

Contract/temporary positions

45%

19%

18%

8%

5%

3%

1%

13-0190

w w w . s h r m . o r g

SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey Methodology

A sample of HR professionals was randomly selected from SHRM’s membership database, which included approximately 250,000 individual members at the time the survey was conducted. Only members who had not participated in a SHRM survey or poll in the last six months were included in the sampling frame. Members who were students, located internationally or had no e-mail address on file were excluded from the sampling frame. In February 2013, an e-mail that included a hyperlink to the SHRM Jobs Outlook Survey was sent to 4,000 randomly selected SHRM members, and 473 HR professionals responded, yielding a response rate of 12%. The survey was accessible for a period of two weeks, and three e-mail reminders were sent to nonrespondents in an effort to increase response rates.

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Disclaimer

This report is published by the Society for Human Resource Management. All content is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a guaranteed outcome. The Society for Human Resource Management cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions or any liability resulting from the use or misuse of any such information. Reference to any specific commercial product, process or service by trade name, trademark, service mark, manufacturer or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation or favoring by SHRM.

Project TeamProject leader: Joseph Coombs, workplace trends and forecasting specialist

Project contributors: Robert Boyd, survey research analyst

Evren Esen, manager, Survey Program

Jennifer Schramm, M.Phil, GPHR, manager, Workplace Trends and Forecasting

Alexander Alonso, Ph.D., SPHR, VP, Research

Copy editing: Katya Scanlan, copy editor

Design: Jihee Lombardi, senior design specialist