q2 | 2016 market perspectivesq2 | 2016 market perspectives reasonable equity valuations source:...
TRANSCRIPT
Matthew F. BeaudrySenior Investment Director, Capital Markets
MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Q2 | 2016
2For dealer use only. Not for public distribution.
EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Table of Contents
• Global economic growth: Persistent but moderate
• Equities: Elongated cycles have created opportunities
• Fixed income: Opportunities exist outside of traditional benchmarks
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: PERSISTENT BUT MODERATE
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Global economic growth: Persistent but moderate
Source: World Bank, 6/7/16.
Real GDP YoY
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Global United States European Union Japan Latin America
2014 2015 2016 Estimated
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
China: Still a wild card
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Yuan relative to U.S. dollar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
China GDP %
CNH to USD
China corporate debt
as percentage of GDP
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Earnings and profit margins rolling over
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Recession Earnings Profit margins
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Housing market strength: Rising home sales and building permits
* Sources: Bloomberg, Fannie Mae, as of 6/30/16.
** Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/30/16.
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
Ma
r-1
2Ju
n-1
2S
ep
-12
De
c-1
2M
ar-
13
Ju
n-1
3S
ep
-13
De
c-1
3M
ar-
14
Jun-1
4S
ep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-
15
Ju
n-1
5S
ep
-15
De
c-1
5M
ar-
16
Ju
n-1
6
Thousands of homes
Ju
n-6
8
Ju
n-7
2
Ju
n-7
6
Ju
n-8
0
Ju
n-8
4
Ju
n-8
8
Ju
n-9
2
Ju
n-9
6
Ju
n-0
0
Ju
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
8
Ju
n-1
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000Thousands of building permits* **
Ma
y-1
6
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Consumer balance sheets are liquid and strong
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 12/31/15.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
U.S. households net worth U.S. personal consumption expenditures
U.S. households net worth and U.S. personal consumption expenditures
Trilli
on
s
Bill
ions
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Recession LEI YOY Index Yield curve*
Leading Economic Indicators Index and yield curve not signaling recession
* Yield curve represents yield difference between the 10-year and 2-year bend.
Sources: Conference Board, Bloomberg.
2016
EQUITIES: ELONGATED CYCLES HAVE CREATED OPPORTUNITIES
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Reasonable equity valuations
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16. Represented by the S&P 500 Index.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
0
10
20
30
40
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Average
Price/earnings ratio
0
2
4
6
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Average
Price/book ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Average
Price/cash flow
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Average
Price/sales ratio
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Greater dispersion of valuations by quintile
Sources: Bloomberg, Putnam, 6/30/16. Represented by the S&P 500 Index.
Price to earnings by quintile
25x
55x
25x
20x
15x
9x
Average 1st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile
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Cyclicality to growth and value
Source: http://indexcalculator.russell.com/ICStep4Series.aspx, 6/30/16.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
16
YT
D
Hu
nd
red
s
Performance difference between Russell 1000 Growth Index and Russell 1000 Value Index
Growth outperforms
Value outperforms
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Reaching extremes in growth vs. valueAnnualized trailing 10-year relative total return: Russell 1000 Growth–Russell 1000 Value
Source: Strategas, 6/30/16.
Growth
outperforms
Value
outperforms
2016
Extreme growth performance
Extreme value performance
Average
+2 StDev
-2 StDev
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Dividend growers priced attractively
Sources: Strategas, Putnam, as of 6/30/16. Represented by the Russell 1000 Index.
Dividend yield is cheap
Dividend growth is cheap
+1 StDev
-1 StDev
Average
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Dividend growers outperform over the long termAnnualized total return (%) for years 1972–2016
Source: Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All rights reserved. Represented by the S&P 500 Index.
See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers, refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
9.81%
7.33%
2.38%
-0.55%
Dividend growers No change Non-payers Dividend cutters
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
16
YT
D
Cyclicality to domestic and international equities
Source: Putnam, 6/30/16.
U.S. outperformance
International outperformance
Performance difference between S&P and EAFE
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Valuations are attractive outside the United States
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Europe Japan
Price/Cash flow relative to the U.S.
Emerging Markets
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Optimal allocation to international stocks
Sources: Putnam, Morningstar. S&P 500 Index used to measure U.S. stocks; MSCI EAFE used to measure foreign stocks. Data from 1970 to 2016.
Ab
so
lute
vo
latilit
y (
%)
13
14
15
16
17
18
% U.S stocks 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
% Foreign 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
International allocations for sample U.S. retirement plans
Source: Pensions & Investments magazine, 2015.
$1.9B
$6.3B
$10.9B
$2.7B
$10.7B
$28.9B
37%
30%
30%
30%
30%
29%
Alaska Electrical Pension Fund
District of Columbia
Merck
Air Products and Chemicals Inc.
Louisiana State Employees Retirement System
Connecticut Retirement Plans and Trust Fund
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Expected equity market returns
Sources: Ned Davis Research, Bloomberg. Represented by the S&P 500 Index.
Disclosure: Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All rights reserved.
See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers, refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
2.27
14.34
2.01
2.18
0.37
7.75
?
Past 5 years Going forward?
PE expansion
Current dividend yield
Consensus earnings growth
Other
PE expansion
Earnings growth
Dividend yield
12.4
?
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EO246 301451 6/16
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Volatility has increased: Where do we go from here?
Sources: Bloomberg, Chicago Board of Exchange Volatility Index, 6/30/16.
Last price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
The bright side of investor pessimism
Notes: AAII Sentiment Survey may be positive for stocks.
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism.
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Bullish sentiment (Right axis) S&P 500 fwd. 52-week return (Left axis) Average
38.5%
FIXED INCOME: OPPORTUNITIES OUTSIDE OF THE TRADITIONAL BENCHMARKS
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
FOMC dual mandates achieved: Moderate inflation and “full” employment
Source: Bloomberg, 3/31/16 and 6/30/16.
Core inflation YOY
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1985
1988
1990
1993
1995
1998
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
2013
Hu
nd
red
s
U.S. Core PCE U.S. Core CPI
U.S. unemployment rate
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1985
1988
1990
1993
1995
1998
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
2013
Recession U.S. unemployment rate
2016
2016
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Interest-rate risk is unprecedented given the low level of rates
Sources: Barclays, Putnam, as of 6/30/16.
This chart uses yield to worst as the representation of yield, and modified adjusted duration as the representation of duration.
Barclays Global Aggregate Index: historical yield vs. duration
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Du
ratio
n (y
ea
rs)
Yie
ld (
%)
Yield Duration
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Price sensitivity of various bond maturities
Source: Barclays, as of 6/30/16.
Percentage change in bond price
0.0% 0.90% 1.90% 2.83%4.77%
9.20%
22.21%
0.0% -0.90% -1.90%-2.83% -4.77%
-9.20%
-22.21%
Money Market 1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years 30 years
When rates fall 100 bps
When rates rise 100 bps
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We believe attractive opportunities exist outside of the indexCurrent spreads relative to historical period
Sources: Barclays, Bloomberg, Putnam, as of 6/30/16.
Data is provided for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All spreads are in basis points and measure option-adjusted yield spread relative to
comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries with the exception of non-agency RMBS and mezzanine CMBS, which are loss-adjusted spreads to swaps calculated using Putnam’s
projected assumptions on defaults and severities, and agency IO, which is calculated using assumptions derived from Putnam’s proprietary prepayment model. Agencies are
represented by Barclays U.S. Agency Index. Agency MBS are represented by Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Index. Investment-grade corporates are represented by
Barclays U.S. Corporate Index. High yield is represented by JPMorgan Developed High Yield Index. CMBS is represented by both agency and non-agency CMBS that are eligible
for inclusion in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; mezzanine CMBS is represented by the same index using the AA, A, and BBB components. Average OAS for Mezzanine
CMBS is for the 2000–2007 time period. Emerging-market debt is represented by the Barclays EM Hard Currency Aggregate Index. Non-agency RMBS is estimated using average
market level of a sample of below-investment-grade securities backed by various types of non-agency mortgage collateral (excluding prime securities). Mezzanine CMBS is
estimated from an average spread among baskets of Putnam-monitored new issue and seasoned mezzanine securities, as well as a synthetic (CMBX) index. Agency IO is
estimated from a basket of Putnam-monitored interest-only (IO) and inverse IO securities. Option-adjusted spread (OAS) measures the yield over duration equivalent Treasuries for
securities with different embedded options.
In the index
We believe opportunities in the heavily traded
benchmark sectors are scarce
Outside the index
Non-benchmark strategies may be compelling,
but they require specialized research
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High-yield spreads and default cycle
Spreads have come in from all-time highs; defaults continue to remain low
* Current default rate includes distressed exchanges.
Sources: JPMorgan, High Yield Market Monitor, 6/30/16; Putnam Investments.
Current spread:
664 bps
20-yr median spread:
561 bps
Current default rate*:
4.9%
Average default rate:
3.6%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%Default rate* Spread to worst 20-year median spread
Global high yield spreads vs. default rates 1/31/87–5/31/16
“Go-Go” years
Bull market
S&L debacle Subprime debacle
Bull market
Rolling calamities
Spre
adsD
efa
ult
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Muni supply is declining amid strong demand
Source: JP Morgan, as of 6/30/16.
* YTD. Source: Bond Buyer, as of 6/30/16.
$ M
illio
ns
New money supply
All muni fund flows
-5-4-3-2-101234
Fe
b-1
0
Apr-
10
Ju
n-1
0
Aug
-10
Oct-
10
Dec-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Apr-
11
Ju
n-1
1
Aug
-11
Oct-
11
Dec-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Apr-
12
Ju
n-1
2
Aug
-12
Oct-
12
Dec-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Apr-
13
Ju
n-1
3
Aug
-13
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Apr-
14
Ju
n-1
4
Aug
-14
Oct-
14
Dec-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Apr-
15
Ju
n-1
5
Aug
-15
Oct-
15
Dec-1
5
Fe
b-1
6
Apr-
16
Ju
n-1
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion
s (
$)
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Summary
• Global and domestic recession are unlikely for 2016
• Elongated cycles have created opportunities in equities
• Fixed Income: Opportunities outside of traditional benchmarks
APPENDIX
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EO246 301451 6/16
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Job vs. wage growth
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
U.S. employees on nonfarm payrolls, net change MoM
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
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Wage growth follows job growth
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
U.S. unemployment rate (%)4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Recession Wage growth Unemployment
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Dividends matter: Especially in low-return environments
Source: Strategas, 12/31/15 and 2/29/16.
Dividend contribution to total return
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
% of S&P 500 stocks with dividend
yields greater than the 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2015
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High correlation: Earnings and equity markets
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Last price Trailing 12M earnings per share
S&P 500
2016
37For dealer use only. Not for public distribution.
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
1675
1725
1775
1825
1875
1925
1975
2025
2075
2125
12
/1/1
5
12
/22
/15
1/1
2/1
6
2/2
/16
2/2
3/1
6
3/1
5/1
6
4/5
/16
4/2
6/1
6
5/1
7/1
6
6/7
/16
6/2
8/1
6
S&P 500 WTI oil prices
Oil’s correlation with the equity market
Short term
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
6/1
6/0
6
6/1
6/0
7
6/1
6/0
8
6/1
6/0
9
6/1
6/1
0
6/1
6/1
1
6/1
6/1
2
6/1
6/1
3
6/1
6/1
4
6/1
6/1
5
6/1
6/1
6
S&P 500 WTI oil prices
Long term
6/3
0/1
6
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Oil prices impact oil rig counts2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
MoM % change in rig count MoM % change in oil price
39For dealer use only. Not for public distribution.
EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
GDP growth less than 3% for a decade:Slower growth is still growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent change from preceding period in real gross domestic product
< 3% growth
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EO246 301451 6/16
Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
CapEx still weak
Source: Bloomberg, 5/31/16.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Hu
nd
red
s
Capital goods new orders: Nondefense ex aircraft YoY
41For dealer use only. Not for public distribution.
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Q2 | 2016 MARKET PERSPECTIVES
ISM non-manufacturing
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Indications of strength or weakness?
The Non-Manufacturing Index is a composite index of four indicators with equal weights: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. An
index reading above 50% indicates an expansion and below 50% indicates a decline in the non-manufacturing economy. For Supplier Deliveries Index, above
50% indicates slower deliveries and below 50% indicates faster deliveries.
Sources: Bloomberg, Institute for Supply Management, 6/30/16.
ISM manufacturing
2016
2016
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
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Brexit adds to uncertainty
Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/16.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
British pound relative to U.S. dollar
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EO246 301451 6/16
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70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
AAA Muni/U.S. Treasury ratiosMunis relatively rich vs. U.S. Treasuries, especially in the long end
Sources: MMD, Bloomberg, and Putnam, as of 6/30/16.
10-year AAA Muni/U.S. Treasury ratio
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%30-year AAA Muni/U.S. Treasury ratio
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Barclays Municipal Bond Index Barclays Municipal Bond Index rolling 3-year return
Municipal bonds have provided a steady stream of returns over time
• Municipal bonds have provided durable returns over time
– In 28 of the past 33 calendar years, municipal bonds have provided positive total returns
• The tax equivalent yield of municipal bonds is attractive relative to other fixed income
asset classes
Calendar-year returns (%)
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EO246 301451 6/16
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Morningstar HY Muni category average vs. selectfixed income indexes
All data as of 6/30/16.
* Distribution yield or yield to worst for indexes. Morningstar 12-month yield.
** Tax-adjusted yield (Federal 39.6% + Medicare 3.8%).
*** Morningstar HY Muni category average 12-month yield.
† Option-adjusted duration (years) or modified duration.
†† Adjusts taxable equivalent yield to match duration of Morningstar HY Muni category average.
Sources: Barclays, Putnam, JPM.
Category/index Yield (%)*
Tax-adjusted
yield (%)**
Average
rating
Duration
(years)†
Duration-
adjusted T/E
yield (%)††
Morningstar HY Muni category
average 12-month yield***3.92 6.93 BB 6.51 6.93
10-year U.S. Treasury 1.49 1.49 AAA 9.20 1.05
JPM HY Index (taxable) 7.11 7.11 BB- 4.75 9.74
Barclays Corp Index (taxable) 2.88 2.88 A3 7.49 2.50
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50
100
150
200
Munis vs. U.S. Treasuries
Sources: MMD, Bloomberg, Putnam, as of 6/30/16.
30-year AAA Municipal/30-year UST ratios(%)
Muni/Treasury ratios Averages Standard deviation
6/30/16
Since
1994
Since
2004
Since
2009
Since
1994
Since
2004
Since
2009
5 years 82% 82% 88% 86% 14% 17% 16%
10 years 87 88 93 95 11 12 10
30 years 88 96 102 106 13 14 11
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth
Value would benefit from financials and energy strength
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
Allocations will vary over time.
Sector weightings
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88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1967
1974
1981
1988
1995
2002
2009
2016
U.S. dollar cycles
Source: Bloomberg, 6/30/16.
$ $Short termLong term
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Credit spreads tighten
Source: Bloomberg, 5/31/16.
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Average less 10-year Treasury
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An unloved bull marketNet flows into mutual funds + ETFs ($BN)
Sources: Strategas, ICI, 12/31/15.
Equity
Year Domestic International Bond Money market
2009 3.3 65.3 417.2 (539.2)
2010 (34.4) 98.2 262.0 (524.7)
2011 (86.0) 28.3 163.7 (124.0)
2012 (78.2) 58.3 358.5 (0.3)
2013 122.2 204.2 (59.0) 15.2
2014 81.4 132.0 94.5 6.3
2015 (105.5) 203.5 29.2 21.4
2016 YTD (42.4) 4.8 87.6 (47.1)
Total (139.8) 798.7 1,354.0 (1,192.8)
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The views and opinions expressed are those of Matthew F. Beaudry, Senior Investment Director, Putnam Investments, June 2016, are subject
to change with market conditions and are not meant as investment advice.
All information is historical and not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and used as a broad measure of market performance.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Putnam Retail Management
putnam.com