q2.16 financial results - national bank of greece › english › the-group › investor... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Q2.16 Financial Results
August 31, 2016
1 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be
accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in
this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.
Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been
obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any
such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are
subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information
contained herein.
In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge
and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying
methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you
should not place undue reliance on them.
Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are
subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties
include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are
cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be
construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to
pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are
advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect
the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.
Legal
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
Table of Contents
1 Financial Highlights
2 Liquidity
3 Profitability
4 Asset quality
5 Capital
6 Macro
7 Appendix
Financial Highlights
1
4 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
€ m 1H16 1H15 yoy 2Q16 1Q16 qoq
NII 961 959 0% 482 479 +1%
Fees & Commissions1 149 150 -1% 76 73 +4%
Pillar-2 costs (45) (91) -51% (15) (30) -50%
Insurance income 41 63 -35% 23 18 +30%
Trading & other income (49) (30) 63% (43) (6) >100%
Income 1,058 1,051 1% 524 534 -2%
Operating Expenses (628) (641) -2% (319) (309) +3%
Core PPI 478 440 9% 247 231 +7%
PPI 429 410 5% 205 225 -9%
Provisions (365) (2,680) -86% (208) (158) +32%
Operating Profit 64 (2,271) n/m (3) 67 n/m
Other impairments (46) (171) -73% (12) (34) -66%
PBT 18 (2,442) n/m (15) 33 n/m
Taxes (15) 535 n/m (9) (7) +34%
PAT (cont. ops) 3 (1,908) n/m (23) 26 n/m
PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) 150 n/m (3.028) 71 n/m
Minorities (21) (15) 34% (10) (10) 0%
Other one-offs - - n/m - - n/m
Attributable PAT2 (2,975) (1,773) 68% (3.062) 87 n/m
P&L Highlights
1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs
2. Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has
no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16
H1.16 Group PAT from continued operations breaks even at € 3m
Highlights
Group P&L
Q2 Group core PPI at €247m, driven by domestic core PPI, up by
10% qoq
• Domestic core income is driven by funding cost improvements as time
deposit repricing continued unabated in Q2 (-19bps qoq), ELA was
reduced further (-€4.9bn qoq) and Pillar II exposure dropped further
and was eliminated in July allowing for the Government representative
to leave the Board
• H1.16 OpEx in Greece, down by 3% yoy, driven by both personnel
(-2.9% yoy) and G&A (-4.3%); future VRS savings will provide further
cost containment
• Q2 domestic provisioning run rate at 231bps vs 164bps in Q1, due to
credit charges relating to a limited number of corporate defaults
during Q2. H1.16 CoR at 197bps, or 189bps at Group level
• Q2 trading income includes €35m related to the VISA transaction
H1.16 Group PAT2 from continued operations breaks even at €3m,
reflecting domestic core income growth and CoR reduction relative
to 2015
Positive recurring PAT contribution from our SEE international
business rises to €52m in H1, +98% yoy
5 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Improving liquidity profile, substantially reduced NPE stock, strong capital position
Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group
2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15
Liquidity
L/D ratio 91% 92% 91% 96% 99%
ELA exposure (€ bn) 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6 17.6
o/w Pillar exposure (nominal)2 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0 16.9
Profitability
NIM (bps) 285 280 280 279 264
Cost / Core income 56% 57% 64% 64% 62%
Asset quality
NPE ratio 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1% 43.5%
NPE coverage ratio 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2% 52.4%
Cost of Risk (bps) 216 162 746 251 2 195
Capital
CET1 phased-in 16.8%1 17.2%3 17.5%3 9.6% 9.5%
CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.2%1 16.7%3 16.8%3 8.8% 8.7%
RWAs (€ b) 40.51 40.43 40.33 60.7 62.9
1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment,
2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016
3. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment,
Significant ELA reduction and elimination of Pillar II and III exposure
• ELA reduced by an impressive €6b from end Q1.16, resulting into a current exposure of just
€5.0b, underscoring NBG’s unique liquidity profile
• Elimination of Pillar II and III exposure, reduces fee costs by half in Q2.16; implies an
annualized funding cost saving of ca €200m compared with 2015
• Regain access to repo market with EFSF bonds currently at €3.4b
• L:D ratio at 91% in Greece and the Group
• Domestic deposits broadly stable in Q2, +€300m qtd
1st Quarter of NPE stock reduction, excluding write offs
• The stock of NPEs contracts for the first time (-€0.9bn qoq) reflecting the combined positive
impact of favourable formation trends, curing and write offs
• Domestic 90dpd retail formation remains negative (-€98m); all retail segments, including SB,
recorded negative formation
• Domestic 90dpd corporate formation edges sharply lower qoq but remains elevated due to a
small number of corporate exposures lapsing into default
• H1.16 domestic CoR at 197bps; NPE coverage at an industry leading 55% (+140bps qoq)
• UBB ranked top among peers with excellent results in both the AQR and the ST, confirming a
solid capital position with CET1 adjusting by just 40bps to 25.7%.
CET 1 pro forma1 ratio at 16.8%
• CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.2%1, including CoCos, CET 1 at 21.6%
• Group RWAs at 40.5b1 of which €34.7b in Greece (phased in)
• Capital adequacy to be further enhanced by implementation of the restructuring plan
Highlights
Liquidity
2
7 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Eurosystem funding (€ bn)
1. Latest available data
2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds
ELA drops by €6bn to just €5bn, underscoring NBG’s unique liquidity advantage
Liquidity
Peer group analysis1: liquidity position
14.2
9.8 10.0 10.1
12.5 11.8
8.9 8.2
13.9
17.615.6 11.5
11.0
6.1
5.0
14.2
23.6
27.6
25.6
24.0
22.8
14.9
13.2
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Aug
€ 3.6bn repo
placed with
the market
over the past
5 months
5.0
13.5
15.4
18.3
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
8% 24% 29%ELA /
Assets2
L:D ratio 91% 150%144%
20%
127%
ELA
exposure
(€ bn)
8 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Eurosystem collateral cash values (€ bn) | Aug 2016
Pillar II and III exposure fully repaid
Liquidity
Pillar II & Pillar III eliminated
9.9
6.4
3.8
1.8
5.7
5.1
7.2
4.3
15.6
11.511.0
6.1
5.0
9.8
ELA Sep-15 ELA Dec-15 ELA Mar-16 ELA Jun-16 ELA Aug-16 Undrawn
liquidity
Other ELA
collateral
(cash value)
Pillar-2 & 3
bonds
(cash value)
No Pillar
exposure
EFSF / ESM
6.3
Other
1.91.2
11.0
2.4
14.6
Cov. bonds
Credit claims
Other
ECB:
€ 8.2bn
Cash value of eligible collateral:
€ 22.9bn
9 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
-2.2
-4.8
-3.6
0.30.8
-0.9
0.00.3
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 qtd
Deposit evolution by geography (€ bn)
35.5 35.836.6 35.7 35.7
6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.5
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Deposits stabilize in Q2, increasing in Q3
Liquidity
Greek deposit flows per quarter (€ bn)
YoY
+0.6%
+8.1%
Group
ex-TUR
SEE &
Other
Greece
41.5 41.9 43.0 42.0 42.2 +1.7%
+0.9%+2.2%
-2.5% 0%
-€10.6 bn +€0.5 bn
10 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
45.8 44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0
7.6 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.1
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
98%
94%
90%91%
91%
99%
96%
91%92%
107%
104%
97%96%
92%
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
L:D ratio evolution
L:D ratio steady at 91%
Gross loan evolution by geography (€ bn)
Liquidity
Group
Greece
SEE & Other
SEE &
other
Greece
53.4 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.1
YoY
-3.9%
-7.0%
-4.3%Group
ex-TUR
-0.5%-2.0% -0.9% -0.7%
Profitability
3
12 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Group Core PPI decomposition by region (€ m)
155139
153
189207
43
41
37
42
40
198
180190
231
247
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Domestic Core PPI recovery (+10% qoq, €207m), is driven by funding cost
reduction and fee income growth
Profitability
Domestic Core PPI bridge
189+4
+8
+15
-9
207
1Q16 ΔNII Δfees &
Insurance
Δ Pillar II
costs
ΔOpEx 2Q16
Greece
SEE &
Other
-5%
+10%
qoq
+10%
qoq
+7%
13 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
SEE & Other
Greece
379 389 392 396 400
249267 269 268 274
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
Domestic NII picks up on the back of improving funding costs
Profitability
Domestic NII quarterly evolution (€ m)
Domestic NII breakdown
396
-11
+9 +4
-2
3400
1Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem
& wholesale
ΔSecurities Subs & other 2Q16
84 83 82 83 83
354 356 355 361 355
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Loans 430 434 411 395 384
Deposits -94 -80 -69 -55 -46
Bonds 83 85 86 85 83
Eurosystem & wholesale -54 -58 -49 -40 -36
Subs & other 12 10 13 11 14
Total 379 389 392 396 400
NII +€4m qoq,
excludes
+€15m funding
cost saving
qoq from Pillar
II exposure
accounted for
in fees
14 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
14.216.4 17.4 17.7 17.8
6.2
6.57.4 6.6 6.8
15.113.0
11.8 11.5 11.1
35.5 35.8 36.635.7 35.7
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Time
Sight &
other
Savings
-0.1% qoq
Greek deposit yields (bps)
25 25 24 2420
185 185
163
132
113
101
90
77
62
51
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Time deposit yields drop by 19bps qoq, new production at 85bps
Profitability
Greek deposits evolution (€ bn)
Time
Total
New production
yield
at 85 bps
57% 64% 68% 68% 69% Core deposits/total
Mkt share 35%
Core
15 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Greek lending yields (bps)
263 262 264 261 258
933 934956 953 947
652673
658672
650
430 421 420 421 417
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Corporate lending yields resilient, despite market rates moving deeper into
negative territory
Profitability
Greek loan evolution (€ bn)
18.0 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0
18.1 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.4
45.8 44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0
411 408 408 409 404
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Corporate
SBL
Consumer
Mortgages
Consumer
SBLs
Corporate
Mortgages
Total lending yield (bps)
-0.7% qoq
34.8 33.8 33.0 32.5 32.4 Net loans
Gross loans
16 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
82 4 4 5
3
56 5 5
24
20
2422 23
15
13
1517
17
3
3
2 33
29
1926
1622
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Insurance
Fund management
Banking fees
Corporate lending
Retail lending
Custody, brokerage
inv. Banking
53
4250 50 52
30
21
29
1823
25
23
24
23
24
108
86
103
91
99
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Greece1
SEE &
Other
Insurance
Group fees & insurance income (€ m)
1. Excl. Pillar fee charges
Fee line recovery reflects Pillar II and III repayment as well as a pick-up in core fees
Profitability
Domestic fees1 & insurance decomposition (€ m)
-48 -53 -54 -30 -15 Pillar 2 cost
0.52% 0.42% 0.50% 0.44% 0.47% Fees1/Assets
50
42
53
82 62 76 66 74
+4%
+37%
qoq
Total
Total1
5250
+12%
17 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
62%
65%
63%
56%55%
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m)
Group OpEx by category (€ m)
Domestic H1.16 costs, down by 3% yoy, support C:I recovery; upcoming VRS will
provide further improvement
Profitability
Headcount evolution (‘000)
Domestic cost-to-core income evolution
Greece Group
1H16 1H15 yoy 1H16 1H15 yoy
Personnel 324 334 -2.9% 393 401 -1.9%
G&As 122 127 -4.3% 176 181 -2.9%
Depreciation 49 48 +2.3% 60 59 +0.5%
Group 495 509 -2.8% 628 641 -2.0%
167 163 168 161 163
90 96 9482 88
257 259 262243 251
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
15.012.2 12.0 12.3
10.1
7.9 7.8 7.7
25.1
20.1 19.8 20.0
FY09 1 FY14 FY15 2Q16
G&A &
other
Staff
SEE &
Other
Greece
Includes Astir
Palace
seasonal
employment
18 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Operating profit evolution (€ m)
SEE contributes €52m in Group PAT for H1.16, +98% yoy
Profitability
SEE headline figures
P&L items (€ m) 2Q16 1Q16 qoq 1H16 1H15 yoy
NII 83 83 -1.0% 166 167 -0.8%
Core income 107 108 -0.4% 215 216 -0.4%
OpEx (67) (66) 2.6% (133) (132) 1.1%
PPI 50 55 -8.9% 105 90 16.9%
Provisions (20) (24) -15.3% (44) (55) -21%
Operating profit 30 31 -4.1% 62 35 77.2%
Net profit after min. 25 27 -6.3% 52 26 98.1%
3942 40
5550
-27-23
-68
-24-20
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Pre-provision income Provisions
1218
-28
31 30Operating
profit
Selective ratios 2Q16 1Q16 1H16 1H15
Liquidity
L/D ratio 92% 96% 92% 107%
Profitability
NIM (bps) 355 361 357 341
Cost / Core income 63% 61% 62% 61%
Asset quality
90dpd ratio 26.5% 27.0% 26.5% 28.0%
90dpd coverage ratio 59.1% 58.3% 59.1% 54.1%
Cost of Risk (bps) 133 155 144 177
Asset quality
4
20 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
75% 67% 69%64%
33%39% 38%
35%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
41
40686 127 2
2,302
232
671
134 188
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
90dpd flows (€ m) Provisions (€ m)
Greece: 90dpd formation and provisions
Greece: 90dpd ratio and coverage
74.9% 73.4%76.8% 76.5% 76.6%
32.1%33.8% 34.1% 34.7% 34.4%
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans
2. Texas Ratio: (NPLs-Provisions)/TBV
3. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
90dpd ratio levels off as formation trends improve
Asset Quality
Peer Group analysis3: asset quality (Group)
Group: 90dpd ratio and coverage
72.3% 71.3% 74.6% 74.5% 74.7%
31.5%33.0% 33.1% 33.6% 33.3%
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
400 271 329 164 231CoR1(bps)
SEE & other:
90dpd ratio: 26.5%
Coverage: 59.1%
Coverage
ratio
90dpd
ratio
0.6x 1.2x 0.9x 1.2xTexas
ratio2
Includes
AQRIncludes
AQR
Quarterly credit
charges relate to a
limited number of
corporate defaults
Stable excl.
write-offs
21 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
71121
154
281
37
122
-133 -117-70
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
SBLs (€ m)
Mortgages1 (€ m)
6 31 36 5385
35
-3
10
-13
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
1. Mortgage formation up to 3Q14 Is on 180dpd basis; 4Q14 onwards is on a 90dpd basis
Retail formation remains negative, corporate formation decelerates but remains
affected by limited corporate defaults
Asset quality
Corporate (€ m)
Consumer (€ m)
22 14 15 42 2176
-22 -26 -19
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
16381
28
-42-101
173246 260
106
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
22 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows (€ m)
Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ bn)Mortgage roll-rates
14.7 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.1
6.16.1
6.7 6.65.9
20.821.3
22.0 22.0
21.1
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
FNPEs & other
impaired
90dpd
Q2 NPEs contract by almost €1bn reflecting favourable collection trends, curing
and write-offs
Asset quality
831
627
485
356
1,072
510
812
609
381
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Benefits from
€0.3bn of Q2
write-offs10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
RR1-->2 RR2-->3 RR3-->4
45.4% 47.4% 49.2% 49.6% 47.9%NPE ratio
23 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment
Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment
1. Bank level
Coverage of 90dpd loans at 77%; most of FNPEs are less than 30dpd
Asset quality
Domestic forborne stock breakdown (€ bn)
Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)
Cash
coverage
Cash
coverage
13% 55% 47% 25% 26%LLAs/
Gross loans
15.1
4.0 0.71.3 21.1
90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs
42%
97%
76%
102% 77%
31%
57%62%
25%
34%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE
29%
82%67%
62% 55%
44%
67%71%
40%48%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE
FNPE<30 dpd
4.0
FNPE 31-90dpd
0.7
FNPE >90dpd
2.9
FPE 2.1
9.7
Collateral
coverage178% 7% 52% 53% 54%
Capital
5
25 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
17.2%16.8%
16.2%
1Q16 2Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded
Peer Group analysis2: CET1 Capital ratios3
Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation (€ bn)CET 1 ratio
7.0 6.8
2.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
2.0
9.1 8.8
Ordinary
equity
GW &
intangibles
Minority
interest
Other CET1
1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and NBGI divestments, and CoCos repayment
2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
3. Excl. CoCos and State prefs.
CET1 ratio at 16.8%1; adding CoCos boosts ratios by 530bps
Capital
RWAs
(€ bn)
CET1:
€7.0bn
16.2%
12.7%
16.2%13.1%
16.8%
13.6%
16.6%
14.1%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
CoCosExcluding CoCos
(+530ps)
TBV: €6.9bn
Phased-in
Fully loaded
40.4 40.5
CET1:
€6.8bn
40.4
CET1:
€6.6bn
QoQ delta due to:
CoCo div, 2Q16 PAT
and Reg. adj. &
other
Macro
6
27 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q)
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece
Unemployment rate and employment growth
+0.2% q-o-q &
-0.9% y-o-y in Q2:16
and positive y-o-y
growth in H2:2016
according to EU
Commission forecasts
GDP deflator, HICP, core inflation & house prices (y-o-y)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
200
9:Q
2
200
9:Q
4
201
0:Q
2
201
0:Q
4
201
1:Q
2
201
1:Q
4
201
2:Q
2
201
2:Q
4
201
3:Q
2
201
3:Q
4
201
4:Q
2
201
4:Q
4
201
5:Q
2
201
5:Q
4
201
6:Q
2
GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-6
-2
2
6
May-08
Jan-0
9
Sep
-09
May-10
Jan-1
1
Sep
-11
May-12
Jan-1
3
Sep
-13
May-14
Jan-1
5
Sep
-15
May-16
Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)
%y-o-y
GDP trends in H1:2016 bode well for a pick-up in economic activity in 2H, as deflation lowers,
labor market conditions improve, and property price drops abate
-85
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ar-
12
May-1
2Ju
l-1
2S
ep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13
May-1
3Ju
l-1
3S
ep
-13
No
v-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ar-
14
May-1
4Ju
l-1
4S
ep
-14
No
v-1
4Ja
n-1
5M
ar-
15
May-1
5Ju
l-1
5S
ep
-15
No
v-1
5Ja
n-1
6M
ar-
16
May-1
6Ju
l-1
6
Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)
Retail (left axis) Consumer (right axis)
Greece - Business & consumer confidence indicators
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
200
8:Q
2
200
8:Q
4
200
9:Q
2
200
9:Q
4
201
0:Q
2
201
0:Q
4
201
1:Q
2
201
1:Q
4
201
2:Q
2
201
2:Q
4
201
3:Q
2
201
3:Q
4
201
4:Q
2
201
4:Q
4
201
5:Q
2
201
5:Q
4
201
6:Q
2
HICP (y-o-y) Core inflation (y-o-y)
House prices (total, y-o-y) GDP deflator (y-o-y)
y-o-y
28 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Current account balance (% GDP)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6f
Greece Euro area
% GDP
Manufacturing production and capacity utilizationGoods and services exports (y-o-y)
Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, OECD, NBG Estimates
Economic rebalancing continues, driven by healthy exports and a further import adjustment,
albeit capital controls constrain liquidity stressing smaller, domestically-oriented enterprises
60
65
70
75
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jun
-09
Oct-
09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Oct-
10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct-
11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct-
12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct-
13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct-
14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct-
15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Capacity utilization (right axis)
Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
% %
-55-45-35-25-15-551525
-55-45-35-25-15-55
1525
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Mar-
13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec-1
3
Mar-
14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec-1
4
Mar-
15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec-1
5
Mar-
16
Jun
-16
Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a.)
Transportation (y-o-y, 12m m.a.)
Other services (y-o-y, 12m m.a.)
Exports of goods (excl.oil & ships, 12m m.a.)
% %
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6f
Germany Ireland Greece Spain Portugal
Cost competitiveness – ULC based exchange rate
Index 2004=100,Performance relative to 37 industrial countries
Capital controls
29 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission (Compliance Report), Bloomberg,
Gen. Government: Total and primary balance
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
2009 2010 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016
% GDP
surplus
deficit
excluding SMP &
ANFA revenue
EU funding and Gov. arrears clearance
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Gen. Government Total balance
Gen. Government Primary balance
Primary balance (Programme target)
% GDP
The fiscal adjustment remains credible and official funding inflows, along with other positive
effects from the completion of the 1st review, will offset the fiscal drag
Primary balance,
2015 (as % of
GDP): +0.7% vs.
target of -0.25%
State budget primary balance (% GDP)
Greek & Portuguese 10y Gov. Bond yields
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aug
-10
Dec-10
Apr-
11
Aug
-11
Dec-11
Apr-
12
Aug
-12
Dec-12
Apr-
13
Aug
-13
Dec-13
Apr-
14
Aug
-14
Dec-14
Apr-
15
Aug
-15
Dec-15
Apr-
16
Aug
-16
Greece: 10y Government bond yield Portugal: 10y Government bond yield
%1st Review completion, ECB
waiver reinstatement, Brexit
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
H2:2015 H2:2016-2017 2018
Clearance of government arrears (negative sign stands for new arrears
accumulation)EU funds
% GDP
Appendix
7
31 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Balance Sheet | Group
Group Balance Sheet & P&L
P&L | Group
€ m 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15
Cash & Reserves 1 974 1 873 2 208 1 982 2 074
Interbank placements 2 909 2 753 2 799 2 788 3 002
Securities 24 187 25 337 24 852 22 233 22 584
Loans (Gross) 51 133 51 512 51 969 52 477 53 444
Provisions (12 712) (12 909) (12 843) (12 357) (12 204)
Goodwill & intangibles 143 142 147 259 273
Tangible assets 1 311 1 315 1 325 1 384 1 413
DTA 5 087 5 093 5 096 5 104 4 582
Other assets 9 143 8 686 7 912 8 089 7 791
Assets held for sale 742 27 941 27 767 28 580 30 233
Total assets 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538 113 192
Interbank liabilities 20 278 25 003 25 166 26 948 28 963
Due to customers 42 184 42 047 42 959 41 890 41 496
Debt securities 1 276 1 279 1 252 1 960 1 874
Other liabilities 10 113 9 621 8 387 8 836 8 535
Hybrids - - - 83 83
Liabilities held for sale 301 23 931 23 643 23 555 24 028
Minorities 701 735 725 724 714
Equity 9 064 9 128 9 100 6 543 7 500
Total liabilities and equity 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538 113 192
Appendix
€ m 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15
NII 482 479 474 472 463
Net fees 61 43 21 13 30
Insurance income 23 18 29 21 30
Core Income 567 540 524 506 523
Trading & other income (43) (6) 108 (178) 80
Income 524 534 632 328 603
Operating Expenses (319) (309) (333) (325) (325)
Core Pre-Provision Income 247 231 190 180 198
Pre-Provision Income 205 225 298 3 278
Provisions (208) (158) (739) (256) (2 329)
Operating Profit (3) 67 (441) (253) (2 051)
Other impairments (12) (34) (247) (51) (134)
PBT (15) 33 (688) (304) (2 185)
Taxes (9) (7) (62) 518 540
PAT (cont. ops) (23) 26 (750) 214 (1 645)
PAT (discount. ops) (3 028) 71 (1 160) (595) 34
Minorities (10) (10) (2) (12) (5)
Other one-offs - - (138) (9) -
Attributable PAT (3 062) 87 (2 050) (401) (1 616)
Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the
translation of Finansbank’s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1
capital in Q2.16
32 National Bank of Greece Q2.16 results
Greece
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other
Appendix
SEE & Other
€ m 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15
NII 400 396 392 389 379
Net fees 37 20 (3) (10) 5
Insurance income 22 16 26 19 29
Core Income 459 432 415 398 413
Trading & other income (52) (19) 105 (178) 84
Income 407 413 520 219 497
Operating Expenses (252) (243) (262) (259) (257)
Core Pre-Provision Income 207 189 153 139 155
Pre-Provision Income 155 170 258 (39) 240
Provisions (188) (134) (671) (232) (2 302)
Operating Profit (33) 35 (413) (271) (2 062)
Other impairments (10) (34) (242) (51) (134)
PBT (44) 2 (655) (322) (2 196)
Taxes (5) (3) (62) 521 543
PAT (49) (1) (717) 199 (1 653)
€ m 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15
NII 83 83 82 83 84
Net fees 24 23 24 23 25
Insurance income 1 2 3 2 1
Core Income 107 108 109 108 110
Trading & other income 10 13 3 1 (4)
Income 118 121 112 109 106
Operating Expenses (67) (66) (72) (67) (68)
Core Pre-Provision Income 40 42 37 41 43
Pre-Provision Income 50 55 40 42 39
Provisions (20) (24) (68) (23) (27)
Operating Profit 30 31 (28) 18 12
Other impairments (1) (0) (5) (1) (1)
PBT 29 31 (33) 18 11
Taxes (3) (4) (0) (2) (3)
PAT 26 27 (33) 15 9
Contact details
Paul Mylonas
Deputy CEO
+30210 334 1521
Greg Papagrigoris
Head of IR
+30210 334 2310
Anthony Kouleimanis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 3037
This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of
this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with
respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will
conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as
any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
Ioannis Kyriakopoulos
Group CFO
+30210 334 3051
Maria Kanellopoulou
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1537
Ilias Katsikalis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1401