q2fy20 result update | banking and financial services...

7
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511 Please refer to important disclosure at the end October 23, 2019 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES RBL Bank More pain as stress pool expands Although we were prepared to brace for an unpleasant print on asset quality, RBL Bank’s reported slippages exceeded our steep Rs12.2bn estimate by a significant 10%. The stress pool has now expanded, accounting for a buffer zone, to Rs18bn (of which, Rs8bn slipped during Q2FY20). While management attributed economic downturn as one of the reasons for the this expanding ripple of stress, we believe the results leave equally legitimate doubts on the sustenance of asset quality and an early return to normalised earnings in Q4FY20E. We have further slashed our earnings estimates (Exhibit 2, pp. 2), target price, and rating (top right box). What went wrong? RBL Bank reported Rs13.77bn in slippages, of which Rs2.5bn worth of slippages were technical in nature (substantially, a single exposure), slipping and recovering. Majority of Rs8bn slippages happened from an identified stressed pool, leaving behind another Rs10bn of stress pool, which may fully materialize. The caveat here is that Rs18bn includes a buffer, with the bank’s management willing to err on side of caution than have an unpleasant surprise later through higher slippages. What worked well? Loan growth momentum (~27.5% YoY) was on expected lines as RBL Bank began rationalizing exposures during Q2FY20, leading to a slowdown in corporate loans. Further, the retail loan momentum continued (85.6% YoY), driven by business loans (1.8x YoY and, credit cards (1.2x YoY). Lastly, fees slackened on the back of a loss of momentum in the balance sheet, with processing fees declining the most (-46.4% YoY), followed by general banking and FX fees. Card fees remained a robust contributor (50%) to overall other income, fees/avg. assets was 1.8% (annualized). Earnings normalcy by Q4FY20: The management’s quest to return to normalcy in earnings as early as Q4FY20, by continuing with higher (but sequentially lower) provisions in Q3FY20E and some leftover provisioning in Q4FY20E, assumes the stress pool stays static. However, the management did not clarify the provisioning levels it may want to achieve before resuming a normalized earnings trajectory. This compares with an earlier guidance of 25–30% PCR on the stress pool. We estimate that the bank shall absorb another Rs5bn in NPL provisioning in H2FY20E. Valuation normalcy to take longer: RBL Bank was already treading a tightrope with its higher credit costs and rich valuations. Hence, the multiples did not take long to snap as the bank identified stress in its corporate portfolio. With Q2FY20 results, we believe RBL Bank will have to endure a longer path to valuation recovery than it will have to for earnings normalcy. Hence, we feel raising fresh capital becomes tougher although the lower tax rates do provide some relief. Valuation: We are downgrading the stock to ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Rs370, slashing the fair value multiple to 2.2x FY21E ABV from 3.5x previously. Key upside risk is recovery/reduction in stress pool. STOCK INFO BSE 540065 NSE RBLBANK Bloomberg RBK IN Reuters RATB.NS Face Value (Rs) 10 Equity Capital (Rs mn) 4,305 Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 14,497,850 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters - Public 100.00 (as on Sept, 2019) PRICE PERFORMANCE STOCK PERFORMANCE 3m 6m 12m RBK IN Equity (40.0) (57.9) (38.8) SENSEX 1.6 (0.5) 13.5 Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research Ravikant Bhat +91 22 6240 6474 [email protected] Prithvish Uppal +91 22 6240 6453 [email protected] ACCUMULATE CURRENT PRICE (INR) 287 UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE 29% TARGET PRICE (INR) 370 PREVIOUS TARGET (INR) 630 (CMP as on 22 Oct 2019 closing) Financial summary Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net interest income 5,564 8,192 12,213 17,663 25,395 Growth (%) 19.6 26.3 49.1 44.6 43.8 Net profit 2,072 2,925 4,460 6,351 8,670 Growth (%) 20.7 9.7 52.5 42.4 36.5 ROE (%) 20.8 19.0 12.2 11.5 12.2 ROA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 ABV (Rs) 245.3 277.7 111.1 152.4 168.7 EPS (Rs) 46.8 51.3 11.9 15.1 20.3 P/E (x) 10.3 9.4 24.1 19.0 14.1 P/ABV (x) 2.0 1.7 2.6 1.9 1.7 Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

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Page 1: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

INSTITUTIONAL

EQUITIES

IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511 Please refer to important disclosure at the end

October 23, 2019

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES

Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES

RBL Bank More pain as stress pool expands

Although we were prepared to brace for an unpleasant print on asset quality, RBL Bank’s

reported slippages exceeded our steep Rs12.2bn estimate by a significant 10%. The stress

pool has now expanded, accounting for a buffer zone, to Rs18bn (of which, Rs8bn slipped

during Q2FY20). While management attributed economic downturn as one of the reasons

for the this expanding ripple of stress, we believe the results leave equally legitimate

doubts on the sustenance of asset quality and an early return to normalised earnings in

Q4FY20E. We have further slashed our earnings estimates (Exhibit 2, pp. 2), target price,

and rating (top right box).

What went wrong? RBL Bank reported Rs13.77bn in slippages, of which Rs2.5bn worth of slippages were technical in nature (substantially, a single exposure), slipping and recovering. Majority of Rs8bn slippages happened from an identified stressed pool, leaving behind another Rs10bn of stress pool, which may fully materialize. The caveat here is that Rs18bn includes a buffer, with the bank’s management willing to err on side of caution than have an unpleasant surprise later through higher slippages.

What worked well? Loan growth momentum (~27.5% YoY) was on expected lines as RBL

Bank began rationalizing exposures during Q2FY20, leading to a slowdown in corporate

loans. Further, the retail loan momentum continued (85.6% YoY), driven by business

loans (1.8x YoY and, credit cards (1.2x YoY). Lastly, fees slackened on the back of a loss

of momentum in the balance sheet, with processing fees declining the most (-46.4%

YoY), followed by general banking and FX fees. Card fees remained a robust contributor

(50%) to overall other income, fees/avg. assets was 1.8% (annualized).

Earnings normalcy by Q4FY20: The management’s quest to return to normalcy in

earnings as early as Q4FY20, by continuing with higher (but sequentially lower)

provisions in Q3FY20E and some leftover provisioning in Q4FY20E, assumes the stress

pool stays static. However, the management did not clarify the provisioning levels it may

want to achieve before resuming a normalized earnings trajectory. This compares with

an earlier guidance of 25–30% PCR on the stress pool. We estimate that the bank shall

absorb another Rs5bn in NPL provisioning in H2FY20E.

Valuation normalcy to take longer: RBL Bank was already treading a tightrope with its

higher credit costs and rich valuations. Hence, the multiples did not take long to snap as

the bank identified stress in its corporate portfolio. With Q2FY20 results, we believe RBL

Bank will have to endure a longer path to valuation recovery than it will have to for

earnings normalcy. Hence, we feel raising fresh capital becomes tougher although the

lower tax rates do provide some relief.

Valuation: We are downgrading the stock to ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Rs370,

slashing the fair value multiple to 2.2x FY21E ABV from 3.5x previously. Key upside risk is

recovery/reduction in stress pool.

STOCK INFO

BSE 540065

NSE RBLBANK

Bloomberg RBK IN

Reuters RATB.NS

Face Value (Rs) 10

Equity Capital (Rs mn) 4,305

Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519

52wk High/Low 717 / 241

Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 14,497,850

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters -

Public 100.00

(as on Sept, 2019)

PRICE PERFORMANCE

STOCK PERFORMANCE

3m 6m 12m RBK IN Equity (40.0) (57.9) (38.8)

SENSEX 1.6 (0.5) 13.5

Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Ravikant Bhat

+91 22 6240 6474

[email protected]

Prithvish Uppal

+91 22 6240 6453

[email protected]

ACCUMULATE

CURRENT PRICE (INR)

287

UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

▲29%

TARGET PRICE (INR)

370

PREVIOUS TARGET (INR)

630 (CMP as on 22 Oct 2019 closing)

Financial summary Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net interest income 5,564 8,192 12,213 17,663 25,395

Growth (%) 19.6 26.3 49.1 44.6 43.8

Net profit 2,072 2,925 4,460 6,351 8,670

Growth (%) 20.7 9.7 52.5 42.4 36.5

ROE (%) 20.8 19.0 12.2 11.5 12.2

ROA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2

ABV (Rs) 245.3 277.7 111.1 152.4 168.7

EPS (Rs) 46.8 51.3 11.9 15.1 20.3

P/E (x) 10.3 9.4 24.1 19.0 14.1

P/ABV (x) 2.0 1.7 2.6 1.9 1.7

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 2: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

RBL Bank

2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly table (Rs mn) Y/E: Mar Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY (%) Q1FY20 QoQ (%) Q2FY20E Var. (%)

Interest income 21,262 14,634 45.3 20,227 5.1 21,007 1.2

Interest exp. 12,575 8,705 44.5 12,054 4.3 12,622 (0.4)

NII 8,687 5,930 46.5 8,173 6.3 8,385 3.6

Other income 4,415 3,331 32.5 4,812 (8.2) 5,067 (12.9)

- Fee income 3492 2,726 28.1 4,069 (14.2) 4,385 (20.4)

- Forex income 388 372 4.4 503 (22.8) 428 (9.2)

- Trading profits 535 233 129.4 241 122.4 254 110.4

Net income 13,102 9,261 41.5 12,985 0.9 13,452 (2.6)

Opex 6,744 4,770 41.4 6,797 (0.8) 7,001 (3.7)

-C/I ratio 51.5 51.5

52.3

52.0

-Staff exp. 1,961 1,509 29.9 1,845 6.2 2,030

Op. profit 6,358 4,491 41.6 6,188 2.8 6,452 (1.4)

Provisions 5,333 1,397 281.8 2,132 150.2 3,080 73.1

- NPL prov. 5,390 1,090 394.5 2,010 168.2 2,833

PBT 1,025 3,094 (66.9) 4,056 (74.7) 3,371 (69.6)

Taxes 482 1,048 (54.0) 1,386 (65.2) 1,129

Tax rate (%) 47.0 33.9 - 34.2 - 33.5

PAT 543 2,045 (73.4) 2,671 (79.7) 2,242 (75.8)

Business Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY (%) Q1FY20 QoQ (%) Q2FY20E Var. (%)

Business 1,213,052 936,628 29.5 1,176,480 3.1 1,258,635 (3.6)

Deposits 628,291 477,901 31.5 608,110 3.3 647,637 (3.0)

- CA 65,342 56,870 14.9 56,554 15.5

- SA 101,155 60,216 68.0 100,338 0.8

- CASA 166,497 117,086 42.2 156,892 6.1

- TDs 461,794 360,815 28.0 451,218 2.3

Advances 584,761 458,727 27.5 568,370 2.9 610,998 (4.3)

-Agri 0 15,597

0

-Retail 201,380 108,473 85.6 183,900 9.5

-SSI / SME 78,670 63,370 24.1 77,330 1.7

-Corporate 304,711 271,287 12.3 307,140 (0.8)

- CASA 26.5 24.5

25.8

- CD ratio

96.0

93.5

Key ratios Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY (%) Q1FY20 QoQ (%) Q2FY20E

NIM (%) (calc) 4.19 3.80

4.11

4.24

CAR (%) 11.88 13.12

12.07

11.87

RoE (calc) (%) 2.78 11.75

13.89

RoA (calc) (%) 0.25 1.26

1.30

EPS (Rs.) (ann.) 5.05 18.99

24.97

Asset Quality Q2FY20 Q2FY19 YoY (%) Q1FY20 QoQ (%) Q2FY20E Var. (%)

GNPAs (Rs mn) 15,391 6,450 138.6 7,892 95.0 17,835 (13.7)

GNPAs (%) 2.60 1.40

1.38

2.89

NNPAs (Rs mn) 9,123 3,386 169.5 3,716 145.5 12,112 (24.7)

NNPAs (%) 1.56 0.74

0.65

1.98

PCR (%) 40.73 47.51

52.91

32.09

Slippages 13,770 1,420 869.7 2,250 512.0 12,311 11.9

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 3: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

RBL Bank

3

Exhibit 2: Revision in earnings estimates Y/E Mar FY20E FY21E

(Rs mn) Earlier Revised % change Earlier Revised % change

Net interest income 34,454 34,837 1.1% 48,055 42,464 -11.6%

PPOP 27,075 26,809 -1.0% 37,549 34,207 -8.9%

PAT 10,022 7,534 -24.8% 15,467 12,545 -18.9%

EPS (Rs) * 23.4 17.5 -25.2% 36.2 29.1 -19.5%

ABV (Rs) 169.4 157.2 -7.2% 207.2 189.2 -8.7%

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

*Change in o/s equity, hence EPS change doesn’t correspond to profit change. (Rs mn)Business growth is moderating

Exhibit 3: Business momentum consolidating at lower growth rate (Rs bn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 % QoQ % YoY Comp.

Business 701 755 842 871 937 1,021 1,127 1,176 1,213 3.1 29.5 -

Deposits

Savings 54 52 49 58 60 65 82 100 101 0.8 68.0 16.1

Current 32 41 48 52 57 63 64 57 65 15.5 14.9 10.4

CASA 87 93 97 110 117 128 146 157 166 6.1 42.2

Retail term deposits 279 294 342 339 361 393 438 451 462 2.3 28.0 73.5

Total 366 386 439 450 478 522 584 608 628 3.3 31.5 100.0

Advances

Retail 69 78 89 98 108 131 149 184 201 9.5 85.6 34.4

Corporate 200 223 238 250 271 285 304 307 305 (0.8) 12.3 52.1

Agriculture 21 20 19 15 16 16 16 0 0 n.m. n.m. -

MSME 46 48 57 59 63 68 74 77 79 1.7 24.1 13.5

Total 336 369 403 422 459 499 543 568 585 2.9 27.5 100.0

CASA 23.7 24 22 24.5 24.5 24.6 25 25.8 26.5

CD ratio 91.8 95.5 91.7 93.9 96.0 95.6 93.0 93.5 93.1

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Exhibit 4: Corporate loan book being consolidated, shall temper overall loan growth momentum (Rs bn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Comp.

Wholesale 200 223 238 250 271 285 302 307 305 (0.8) 12.3 52.1

-C&IB 139 156 162 171 188 200 214 220 221 0.7 17.6 37.9

-CB 61 67 75 78 83 85 89 87 83 (4.6) 0.3 14.2

Non-wholesale 136 146 165 172 187 214 239 261 280 7.2 49.4 47.9

-BBB 69 78 89 98 108 131 149 184 201 9.5 85.6 34.4

-LAP and working capital 35 38 44 53 50 57 65 69 73 5.0 44.6 12.5

-Unsc business loans 14 10 9 12 12 14 15 40 35 (11.8) 183.3 6.0

-Cards 13 18 22 29 37 45 53 67 80 20.3 118.1 13.7

-Others 8 13 13 5 9 16 17 8 13 63.7 49.1 2.3

-DB & FI 46 48 57 59 63 68 74 77 79 1.7 24.1 13.5

-Micro banking 25 0 0 0 39 42 50 50 52 3.7 31.5 8.8

-IFI 16 0 0 0 17 17 16 17 16 (7.1) (5.6) 2.7

-MSME 5 0 0 0 8 9 10 11 11 6.9 52.1 2.0

-Agri 21 20 19 15 16 16 16 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0.0

Wholesale (%) 59.6 60.5 59.0 59.2 59.1 57.1 55.7 54.0 52.1

Non wholesale (%) 40.4 39.5 41.0 40.8 40.9 43.0 43.9 46.0 47.9

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 4: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

RBL Bank

4

Exhibit 5: Fees reflecting balance sheet slowdown (Rs mn) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Comp.

Core Fees 2,025 2,298 2,714 2,706 3,098 3,479 3,888 4,571 3,880 (15.1) 25.2 87.9

-FX 344 345 380 325 372 383 467 503 388 (22.8) 4.4 8.8

-Proc Fee 567 666 651 649 713 800 894 869 466 (46.4) (34.7) 10.5

-Gen. banking 304 276 380 325 434 487 428 549 349 (36.3) (19.5) 7.9

-Distribution 81 92 163 108 93 104 156 91 116 27.3 25.2 2.6

-Credit cards 506 712 896 1,082 1,239 1,426 1,594 2,149 2,212 2.9 78.5 50.1

-Trade & Others 223 207 244 216 248 278 350 411 349 (15.1) 40.9 7.9

Trading-FICC 386 284 406 554 233 262 205 241 535 122.5 129.6 12.1

Total non-int. inc. 2,411 2,582 3,120 3,260 3,331 3,741 4,092 4,812 4,415 (8.2) 32.5 100.0

Core fees / avg. ass. (%) 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.8

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 5: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

RBL Bank

5

Income Statement (standalone)

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Interest Earned 37,132 45,076 63,007 87,524 109,089

Interest Expended 24,918 27,413 37,612 52,687 66,625

Net Interest Income 12,213 17,663 25,395 34,837 42,464

Other Income 7,555 10,682 14,424 20,103 26,394

Net Income 19,768 28,345 39,818 54,940 68,858

Total Income 44,686 55,758 77,431 107,627 135,482

Total Expenses 6,102 9,527 14,058 19,970 24,442

Pre Provision Profit 9,204 13,311 19,398 26,809 34,207

Provisions 2,389 3,645 6,407 15,890 17,255

Profit before tax 6,815 9,665 12,992 10,920 16,952

Tax 2,354 3,315 4,322 3,386 4,408

Profit after tax 4,460 6,351 8,670 7,534 12,545

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Balance Sheet (standalone)

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Liabilities

Equity 3,752 4,197 4,267 4,306 4,306

Reserves and Surplus 39,594 62,634 71,197 77,996 89,249

Net Worth 43,346 66,831 75,464 82,302 93,555

Deposits 345,881 439,023 583,944 739,625 933,593

Borrowings 79,798 92,614 118,321 139,183 160,355

Other Liabilities & Provisions 17,713 20,031 25,850 34,251 38,638

Total Liabilities 486,748 618,508 803,588 995,369 1,226,150

Assets

Cash and Bank Balance 29,479 25,893 48,395 47,861 60,307

Money at Call and Short Notice 12,457 16,951 17,626 30,496 40,726

Investments 134,817 154,475 168,404 192,302 224,062

Advances 294,490 402,678 543,082 682,065 861,091

Fixed Assets 2,587 3,340 4,025 4,190 4,371

Other Assets 12,917 15,170 22,056 38,456 35,591

Total Assets 486,748 618,508 803,588 995,369 1,226,150

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 6: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

RBL Bank

6

Key Ratios (standalone)

Y / E March FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Valuations / per share data

Earnings Per Share (Rs) 11.9 15.1 20.3 17.5 29.1

Book Value Per Share (Rs) 115.5 159.2 176.9 191.1 217.3

Adj Book Value Per Share (Rs) 111.1 152.4 168.7 157.2 195.5

P/E (x) 24.1 19.0 14.1 16.4 9.9

P/BV (x) 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3

P/ABV (x) 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5

Balance Sheet Ratios (%)

CAR 13.7 15.3 12.5 11.5 10.8

Tier I 11.4 13.6 12.1 10.7 10.1

-CET1 11.4 13.6 12.1 10.7 10.1

Leverage (TA / Net worth) 11.2 9.3 10.6 12.1 13.1

Credit/Deposit 85.1 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.2

CASA 20.6 23.3 24.7 26.1 28.1

Growth Y-o-Y (%)

Net Advances 38.7 36.7 34.9 25.6 26.2

Deposits 42.1 26.9 33.0 26.7 26.2

Business 40.7 31.5 33.9 26.7 26.6

Net Interest Income 49.1 44.6 43.8 37.2 21.9

Other Income 54.0 41.4 35.0 39.4 31.3

Net Profit 52.5 42.4 36.5 -13.1 66.5

Return Ratios (%)

ROA 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1

ROE 12.2 11.5 12.2 9.6 14.3

RoRWA 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.5

Yield / Margin (%)

Yield on Funds 8.5 8.2 8.9 9.7 9.8

Cost of Funds 5.7 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.0

Interest Spread 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 3.8

Core spreads 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.2

Net Interest Margin 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.2

Cost / Income 53.4 53.0 51.3 51.2 50.3

Other Ratios (%)

Gross NPA 1.2 1.4 1.4 3.8 3.3

Net NPA 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.1 1.1

PCR 53.2 49.3 54.0 44.4 67.8

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

RoA Tree (standalone) (%) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Interest Earned 8.45 8.16 8.86 9.73 9.82

Interest Expended 5.67 4.96 5.29 5.86 6.00

Net Interest Income 2.78 3.20 3.57 3.87 3.82

Other Income 1.72 1.93 2.03 2.23 2.38

Net Income 4.50 5.13 5.60 6.11 6.20

Total Income 10.17 10.09 10.89 11.97 12.20

Total Expenses 2.41 2.72 2.87 3.13 3.12

Pre Provision Profit 2.10 2.41 2.73 2.98 3.08

Provisions 0.54 0.66 0.90 1.77 1.55

Profit before tax 1.55 1.75 1.83 1.21 1.53

Tax 0.54 0.60 0.61 0.38 0.40

Profit after tax 1.02 1.15 1.22 0.84 1.13

Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Institutional Research

Page 7: Q2FY20 RESULT UPDATE | BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES …bsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2019-10-23 · Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 123,519 52wk High/Low 717 / 241 Avg

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (“INSL”) and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from INSL. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. All the projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by authors of this report independently. None of the forecasts were prepared with a view towards compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles.

This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of individual clients. The research analysts of INSL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. INSL does not take any responsibility thereof. Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this report, which contain words such as ‘will’, ‘would’, etc., and similar expressions or variations of such words may constitute ‘forward-looking statements’. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. INSL undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. INSL accepts no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of use of this report.

This report has been prepared by INSL based upon the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by INSL that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of INSL and INSL does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances. This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward-looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis report. This report may not be followed by any specific event update/ follow-up.

Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter;

Disclosure of Interest Statement

1 Details of business activity of IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (INSL) INSL is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE and MCX - SX in all the major segments viz. Cash, F & O and CDS segments. INSL is also a Depository Participant and registered with both Depository viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, INSL is a Registered Portfolio Manager and is registered with SEBI.

2 Details of Disciplinary History of INSL No disciplinary action is / was running / initiated against INSL

3 Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest

No (except to the extent of shares held by Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates')

4 Whether Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' is holding the securities of the subject company

Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (http://www.indianivesh.in/Research/Holding_Disclosure.aspx?id=10).

5 Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.

No

6 Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the document

No

7 Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months

No

8 Has research analyst or INSL or its associates managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months

No

9 Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

No

10 Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

No

11 Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the document.

No

12 Has research analyst served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No

13 Has research analyst or INSL engaged in market making activity for the subject company No

14 Other disclosures No

INSL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Definitions of ratings

>= USD 2 bn > USD 500 mn to 2 bn <= USD 500 mn

BUY >= 15% >= 20% >= 25%

ACCUMULATE 0 to <15% 0 to <20% 0 to <25%

REDUCE 0 to -15% 0 to -20% 0 to -25%

SELL < -15% < -20% < -25%

Our target prices are on a 12-month horizon basis.

Other definitions

NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been arrived at due to certain circumstances not in control of INSL. The information is not meaningful to arrive at a rating as per our definition above and is therefore excluded.

CS = Coverage Suspended. INSL has suspended coverage of this company.

UR=Under Review. Such e invest review happens when any developments have already occurred or likely to occur in target company & INSL analyst is waiting for some more information to draw conclusion on rating/target.

Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company

One year Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.nseindia.com and www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose name of company in the list browse companies and select 1 year in icon YTD in the price chart)

IndiaNivesh Securities Limited

Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511

Corporate Office: Lodha Supremus, 17th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai - 400 013.

Registered Office: 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai - 400 007.

Tel (Board): 022 6240 6240 | Fax: 022 6240 6241

e-mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in

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