q3 earnings presentation · q3 earnings presentation september 2018. from time to time home capital...
TRANSCRIPT
Q3 earnings presentation
September 2018
From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included inthe Annual Report, periodic reports to shareholders, regulatory filings, press releases, Company presentations and other Companycommunications. Forward-looking statements are made in connection with business objectives and targets, Company strategies,operations, anticipated financial results and the outlook for the Company, its industry, and the Canadian economy. These statementsregarding expected future performance are “financial outlooks” within the meaning of National Instrument 51-102. Please see the riskfactors, which are set forth in detail in the Risk Management section of the 2018 Third Quarter Report, as well as the Company’s otherpublicly filed information, which is available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) at www.sedar.com,for the material factors that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risk factors arematerial risk factors a reader should consider, and include credit risk, liquidity and funding risk, structural interest rate risk, operationalrisk, investment risk, strategic risk, reputational risk, compliance risk and capital adequacy risk along with additional risk factors thatmay affect future results. Forward-looking statements can be found in the Report to the Shareholders and the Outlook section in the2018 Second Quarter Report. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “will,” “believe,” “expect,”“anticipate,” “intend,” “should,” “estimate,” “plan,” “forecast,” “may,” and “could” or other similar expressions.
By their very nature, these statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainty,general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-lookingstatements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, global capital market activity, changes in government monetaryand economic policies, changes in interest rates, inflation levels and general economic conditions, legislative and regulatorydevelopments, competition and technological change. The preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors.
These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-lookingstatements. The Company presents forward-looking statements to assist shareholders in understanding the Company’s assumptions andexpectations about the future that are relevant in management’s setting of performance goals, strategic priorities and outlook. TheCompany presents its outlook to assist shareholders in understanding management’s expectations on how the future will impact thefinancial performance of the Company. These forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Companydoes not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by it oron its behalf, except as required by securities laws.
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Forward-Looking Statements
➢ Book value per share, earnings per share, return on equity all higher
➢ Markets resuming normal growth patterns
➢ Fourth consecutive quarter of origination growth
➢ Improved margins and operating efficiency
➢ Credit quality of loan portfolio remains high
➢ Oaken continues to contribute to funding profile
➢ Next steps in digital strategy
➢ Announcement of SIB, plans to apply for NCIB
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CEO Q3 Update
Third Quarter 2018
Financial Results
4
5
Q3 2018 Financial Highlights
Income StatementQ3 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 Sequential
ChangeYear over year
Change
Revenue (millions) $105.1 $101.6 $95.4 3.44% 10.17%
Net Interest Income (NII) (millions) $89.8 $84.1 $88.8 6.78% 1.13%
Net Interest Margin (TEB) (NIM) 2.03% 1.91% 1.85% 12 bps 18 bps
Non-Interest Expenses (millions) $55.6 $55.4 $59.9 0.36% (7.18)%
Provision as a % of Gross Uninsured Loans (annualized) 0.13% 0.22% (0.14%) (9 bps) nm
Net Income (millions) $32.6 $29.6 $30.0 10.14% 8.67%
Net income per share $0.41 $0.37 $0.37 10.81% 10.81%
Balance Sheet Q3 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2017 Sequential
ChangeYear to date
Change
Total Originations (millions) $1,435.8 $1,230.2 $872.1 16.71% 64.64%
Total Loans (billions) $16.04 $15.45 $15.07 3.90% 6.17%
Loans Under Administration (billions) $22.82 $22.51 $22.52 1.33% 1.24%
Assets Under Administration (billions) $24.66 $25.00 $25.04 (1.20)% (1.36)%
Net Non-Performing Loans Ratio 0.34% 0.34% 0.30% flat 4 bps
CET1 Ratio 23.27% 23.21% 23.17% 6 bps 10 bps
Book Value per share $23.82 $23.40 $22.60 1.79% 5.40%
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Q3 2018 Originations and Discharges – sequential change
Commercial originations: $419.8 million
Single-family residential originations: $1,016.0 million
Fourth quarter of sequential increases in volume
Total originations: $1,435.8 million
7.0%
49.5%
16.7%
12.6%Total discharges: $828.0 million
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Continued growth in mortgage volumes
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Traditional Single-family ResidentialMortgages
Accelerator Single-family ResidentialMortgages
Residential Commercial Mortgages Non-Residential CommercialMortgages
Mill
ion
s
Mortgage Originations by Type
Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
(millions) Q3 2018 Q2 2018 Q/Q Change Q3 2017 Year/Year Change
Traditional Single-family Residential Mortgages $ 959.1 $ 875.9 9.50% $ 202.7 373.16%
Accelerator Single-family Residential Mortgages $ 56.9 $ 73.5 (22.59)% $ 21.3 167.14%
Total Residential Mortgages $ 1,016.0 $ 949.4 7.01% $ 224.0 353.57%
Residential Commercial Mortgages $ 207.6 $ 129.4 60.43% $ 99.1 109.49%
Non-Residential Commercial Mortgages $ 212.2 $ 151.4 40.16% $ 62.0 242.26%
Total Commercial Mortgages $ 419.8 $ 280.8 49.50% $ 161.1 160.58%
Total Mortgage Advances $ 1,435.8 $ 1,230.2 16.71% $ 385.1 272.84%
Growth in both residential and commercial
Highest level since 2017 liquidity event
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(0.07%)
1.85%
2.02% 2.02% 1.91% 2.03%
(0.50%)
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Net interest margin
Recovery in net interest margin
• Reduced funding cost from standby line of credit facility
• Continued spread compression relative to historical levels
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Net interest margin improvement from Q2
• More efficient asset mix
• Somewhat offset by higher rates on liabilities
• Reduced costs from standby credit facility
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Conservative underwriting and improving credit metrics
LTV Ratio (Q3 2015 – Present)
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017 2018
Weighted-average LTV Ratios for Uninsured Residential Mortgages
Weighted-average LTV Ratios for Uninsured Residential MortgagesOriginated During the Period
Loan-to-value metrics on new originations and on overall portfolio have stabilized at very conservative levels
▪ Net non-performing loans remained at low level
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High credit quality of loan portfolio
0.34%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018
Net Non-Performing Loans as a Percentage of Gross Loans
0.34%
0.29%
Reported under IFRS9
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Credit loss experience demonstrates successful risk management
Reported under IFRS9
• Provisions in Q3 were $4.0 million versus $6.5 million in Q2
• Net write-offs as percentage of gross loans below 5 bp for the year to date
• Results in 2018 reported under IFRS9 which may limit comparability to prior periods
0.02%0.03%
0.05%0.03%
0.11%
0.03%
0.05%
0.02%
0.05%
0.13%
0.05%
(0.11)%
0.09%0.16%
0.17%
0.10%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Net write-offs as % of gross loans Provisions as % of gross loans
Prudent underwriting discipline evident in low levels of provisions and write-offs
▪ Asset/Liability model based on long funding principle
▪ Near term non-securitized mortgage book run off exceeds repayment schedule of contractual GIC maturities
▪ Securitization funding provides the Company with low cost long-term matched funding
▪ $419.7 million of demand deposits at September 30, 2018
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Long Funded Balance Sheet
Maturity Profile as at September 30, 2018 ($ billions)
2.5
7.0
2.8
0.6
12.9
1.5
4.4 4.2
1.8
11.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0-3 months 3-12 months 1-3 years Over 3 Years Total
Non-Securitized Contractual Mortgage Maturities
Contractual Fixed Term Deposit Maturities
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Oaken share of deposit funding
$13.3
$10.7 $10.6 $9.5 $9.5 $9.7 $9.4
$2.0
$1.8 $2.2
$2.0 $2.2 $2.4 $2.6
$15.3
$12.5 $12.8
$11.5 $11.7 $12.2 $12.0
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Broker and Oaken Deposits in $Billions
Broker Oaken Total
• Oaken deposits have grown by over 25% year to date
• Growth in Oaken is key strategic focus
• Opportunities for efficiencies and improved client experience through digital initiatives
Aggregate available liquidity of $1.88 billion at end of Q3 2018 including $500 million undrawn
credit facility.
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Maintaining prudent liquidity level
$1,655
$1,454
$1,817
$1,376
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Mill
ion
s
Liquidity Resources
Liquid assets at carrying value As % of Total assets
✓ Management of liquidity is a key element in sustainable risk culture
✓ Reduced reliance on demand deposits in favour of fixed-term GICs
✓ Maintaining appropriate liquidity to support our future growth plans
➢ No participation from management or directors
➢ Capital and liquidity levels remain conservative post-SIB
➢ Continue to generate capital from operations
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Capital plan: A commitment to value creation
➢ Terms will be announced on or about November 12
➢ Accretive to book value, earnings and ROE
➢ Funded from available cash on hand
Intention to apply for Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) following completion of SIB
Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) for up to $300 million in common shares
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Capital and Leverage metrics
Basel III Common Equity Tier 1▪ Plans for SIB
incorporate conservative approach to risk management
▪ Post-SIB CET1 levels will be well in excess of industry average
▪ Post-SIB liquidity well within prudent range
Leverage Ratio
21.25%
23.17%23.64%
23.21% 23.27%
Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
7.89%
8.70%
9.02% 8.96%9.20%
Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Questions
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Total on-balance sheet mortgage portfolio balance of $15.25B, of which 90.9% is residential mortgages
▪ 23.4% of residential mortgage portfolio is insured
▪ Weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of the uninsured residential mortgage portfolio is 59.3% compared with 59.3% at the end of Q2.
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Mortgage Lending Q3 2018 Highlights
Single-Family Residential Loans by Province Insured Uninsured Equity Line Visa Total %
British Columbia $254.4M $715.9M $5.7M $976.0M 7.2%
Alberta $510.3M $254.1M $8.9M $773.3M 5.7%
Ontario $1,815.3M $8,700.9M $318.8M $10,835.0M 80.3%
Quebec $127.8M $242.8M $1.1M $371.7M 2.8%
Other $339.0M $191.5M $2.3M $532.8M 3.9%
Total $3,046.8M $10,105.2M $336.8M $13,488.7M 100.0%`