q.31 i know it's a long way off, but thinking about …...clinton trump johnson clinton trump...

Q.31 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump?

StateHillaryClinton

DonaldTrump Other

DK/Ref/NotVote

Arizona 43 48 6 3Florida 52 39 6 3Michigan 50 39 6 5NorthCarolina 51 41 5 3NewHampshire 44 43 9 3Nevada 45 47 4 4Ohio 47 48 3 2Pennsylvania 49 39 8 5Wisconsin 47 36 7 10

Q.35 Now let me as you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

StateHillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

GaryJohnson Other

DK/Ref/NotVote

Arizona 39 45 10 3 4Florida 49 38 9 2 2Michigan 48 33 12 3 3NorthCarolina 48 38 8 1 4NewHampshire 41 41 10 5 4Nevada 44 44 9 1 3Ohio 41 41 14 1 4Pennsylvania 45 36 13 2 4Wisconsin 44 32 16 3 5

Q.37 (DO NOT ASK IN MICHIGAN OR FLORIDA) Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, I know it's a long way off, but if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you be voting for -- (Democratic incumbent/candidate ) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?

State Democratic Republican OtherDK/Ref/NotVote

Arizona 42 44 4 10

NorthCarolina 38 36 1 25NewHampshire 47 46 1 5Nevada 41 46 0 13Ohio 43 40 2 15Pennsylvania 38 46 1 15Wisconsin 46 45 0 9

Battleground 2016: new game

June 30, 2016

1

Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11 - 20. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election, 2014 election, or registered since the 2014 election were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=300) of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/-5.66 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-nine percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full electorate in each state. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote) on outcome variables (associations, statement pairs), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results.

2

State Breakdowns

Rustbelt Target States:

Ohio New Hampshire

Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan

Diverse Target States:

Arizona Florida Nevada

North Carolina

Senate Battleground:

Arizona

Florida*

Nevada

North Carolina

Ohio

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

*The Senate vote results were excluded in Florida where Senator Rubio had not yet announced his candidacy.

3

THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND

49 41

10

2-Way Vote

45 38

11 6

3-Way Vote

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?

+8

Clinton leads Trump across the battleground

4

2 – Way Vote 3 – Way Vote

Other/DK Gary Johnson

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton Other/DK

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

+7

PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND

40 25 25 27 13 10 18

53 43 42 41

32 31 30

34 32 33 45 39 34 51

40 42 43 52 51 44

60

Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)

Trump and state GOP leaders now face of toxic GOP brand

5

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.

Mean: 40.7

Net: -1 Net: -13

Mean: 53.5

Net: +13

Mean: 48.0

Net: -19

Mean: 40.2

Net: -11

Mean: 42.4

Net: +1

Mean: 47.9

Barack Obama

Bernie Sanders

Mean: 34.2

Net: -30

Donald Trump

Republican Party

GOP in State Legislature

Hillary Clinton

Democratic Party

39 49

36 45

12

86

5 7

64

20 12

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?

Trump gets less than half of the white vote, even in 2-way race

6

+10 +9 +44 +81

African American White


Hispanic

46

24 22

36 32

25

41 39

13

48 41

5

46 44

5

Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

Clinton winning all generations, including millennials

7

+22 +2 +2 +7


White Millennials

Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent

+4

39

50

11

2016 Vote (2-way)

Clinton

Trump

Other/DK/Refused

45

46

10

2016 Vote (2-way)

Clinton

Trump

Other/DK/Refused

63 26

10

2016 Vote (2-way)

Clinton

Trump

Other/DK/Refused

The 2016 “women’s vote” is more complicated than you think

8

Unmarried Women (31% of Clinton vote)

NEW CHART

Married Women (27% of Clinton vote)

College-Educated Women (28% of Clinton Vote)

White Non-College Educated Women (18% of Clinton vote)

66

33

1

2012 Vote Obama

Romney

Other/DK/Refused

56

43

1

2012 Vote Obama

Romney

Other/DK/Refused

57 32

11

2016 Vote (2-way)

Clinton

Trump

Other/DK/Refused

45

53

2

2012 Vote

Obama

Romney

Other/DK/Refused

39

59

2

2012 Vote

Obama

Romney

Other/DK/Refused


66

33

62

23 10

52 47 50

31

13

Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson


Improved margins among unmarried women from 2012

9

+33 +39 +19 +5

Unmarried Women


2012 2016 2012 2016

White Unmarried Women

42 43

8

62

23 10

Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson

45 53

66

33

Obama Romney Obama Romney


Marriage gap sustained, even though married women now even

10

+8 +33 +39 +1

2012 Marriage Gap: 41


Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Unmarried Women

2016 Marriage Gap: 40

78 77 75 75 75 75 73 73 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 59 58

How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from one to ten, with one meaning they don’t matter at all and ten meaning they matter tremendously. You can choose any number between one and ten.

RAE less determined to vote than non-RAE, driven by millennials

% 10 – Matters Tremendously

11


38

11

48

Voting for Trump Considering Trump Never Trump

45

10

40

Voting for Clinton ConsideringClinton

Never Clinton

12

Never Trump nearing half Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton/Trump, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton/Trump for President in November?

Trump Vote Clinton Vote


26

51

20 27

65

8 3 16

55

24

2

Dem Ind Rep Clinton Sanders Other Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Other

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton for President in November?

Composition of Clinton’s winnable voters

13

Clinton’s Winnable Voters

Democratic Primary

Republican Primary


Partisanship

89

4 5

32 33 24

5

80

11

Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson


Clinton has consolidated 9-in-10 Democrats, Trump only 8-in-10, and real Libertarian vote with Independents

14

Democrats (40%)

Republicans (35%)

Independents (24%)


31 30 24

15

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Other DK/Refused

36

10

52

Democrat Independent Republican


Majority of Johnson voters are Republican, but three-in-ten will vote for Clinton in 2-way ballot

15

2-Way Vote Partisanship

Johnson Voters


*Partisanship is show by Democrats/Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans/Republican leaning Independents

31

26

32

30

25

34

23

21

37

47

49

51

51

48

56

46

51

59

10

6

5

7

6

9

10

7

29

19

19

15

21

17

23

28

22

8

5

8

11

9

12

26

16

21

28

18

26

16

23

36

16

23

16

14

17

14

18

26

19

31

46

31

33

49

28

31

49

39

16

Romney defectors driven by leadership/immigration, Obama defectors by desire for change/nationalism/economy

Income

I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Immigration

Values

Strong Leader

Middle class

Special interests

Right kind of change

Has what it takes

The future

+3

+26

+15

+31

+2

+5

+10

+30

+5

Economy

Incomes & wages

Taxes

Special interests

Stands for America

Right kind of change

Issues matter to me

The future

Strong leader

+37

+23

+23

+27

+39

+46

+32

+40

+17

ROMNEY ‘12, NOT TRUMP ‘16 OBAMA ‘12 NOT CLINTON ‘16

17

THE RUST BELT PLAY & DIVERSE STATE STRATEGY

47 53

81

13 3 18 23 22 20 24

RAE Non-RAE White AfricanAmerican

Hispanic Minority UnmarriedWomen

Millennial WhiteNon-

CollegeMen

WhiteNon-

CollegeWomen

% of Voters

DIVERSE STATES

56 44

67

14 14

31 25 22

15 20

RAE Non-RAE White AfricanAmerican

Hispanic Minority UnmarriedWomen

Millennial WhiteNon-

CollegeMen

WhiteNon-

CollegeWomen

% of Voters

18

Very different demographics in these sets of states RUSTBELT STATES

47 44 39 36

9 13 5 6


+8 +8

Clinton's margin across both areas suggests big Electoral College battleground

19

DIVERSE STATES RUSTBELT STATES

Other/DK Gary Johnson

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton Other/DK Gary

Johnson Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

49

38

9

48

38

8

44 44

9

39 45

10

Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson


Growing diversity producing bigger battleground

20

+6

DIVERSE STATES

+10 -- +11

Florida North Carolina Nevada Arizona

44

54

39 45

50 49 49

38

52 46 44 44

48 51 48

38


And running ahead of 2012 margins in the diverse states

21

+13

Diverse States

+10

+10

Arizona Florida Nevada North Carolina

+6 +1 +11 +6 -- -3 +10

+4

2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres.

-6

41 41

14

41 41

10

45

36

13

44

32

16

48

33

12

Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson


No advantage for Trump in the states he needs to win

22

+12

RUSTBELT STATES

-- +9 -- +15

Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan

55 60

75

45

60 64

75

48

22 23

11 21 25 23

15

28

17 10 12

28

10 10 6

15

RAE UnmarriedWomen

Minorities Millennials RAE UnmarriedWomen

Minorities Millennials

Clinton Trump Johnson

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?

RAE vote comparable in two areas, so composition is everything

23

RUSTBELT STATES

+33 +37 +60 +20 +35 +41 +64 +24

DIVERSE STATES

32

50

14

36 43

11


31

61

3

37

52

9


24

Trump performs better with working class men in diverse states I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

+18 +7 +30 +15

DIVERSE STATES RUSTBELT STATES

White Non-College Men

White Non-College Women

White Non-College Men

White Non-College Women

25

VALUES & LEADERSHIP

5

12

28

18

15

27

54

33

45

30

20

31

74

56

41

55

Much more Much more

26

Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.


Immigrants today are a burden on our country. Immigrants today strengthen our country.

More and more, I don't identify with what America has become.

More and more, America is a place that I can feel comfortable as myself.

Whites are losing out because of preferences for blacks and Hispanics.

Blacks and Hispanics face discrimination that needs public attention.

Women who demand equality are actually seeking special favors.

Women get fewer opportunities than men for equal pay and good paying jobs.

Majorities disagree with Trump’s outlook on society

+22

+13

+29

+59

31

12

39 47

30 34

55

30

62

74

53 57

18 34

13 7 19 17

33

55

27

16

34 31

All presidential BG voters Trump Votes Johnson Voters Clinton Voters Rustbelt States Diverse States

Strengthen much more Burden much more

+35 +25 +19 +22 +58 +26

Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.

Trump supporters are particularly isolated on immigrants

27

Immigrants today strengthen our country. Immigrants today are a burden on our country.

Total BG

Trump Voters

Johnson Voters

Clinton Voters

Rustbelt States

Diverse States


26

22

27

21

27

24

21

41

41

40

37

39

37

35

30

28

35

33

38

36

40

46

48

48

48

52

52

52

Trump much more Clinton much more


28

Clinton leads on values & qualifications

Has what it takes to be President

The right approach to immigration

For the middle class

Best for America’s future

+17

+15

+13

+12

+8

+7

Shares your values

Raising incomes and wages

+5 Will bring the right kind of change

PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions

Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions

26

34

33

26

33

31

29

21

42

46

47

43

45

44

42

39

24

32

30

25

34

34

32

24

38

44

46

44

46

46

46

44 Trump much more Clinton much more


29

But at parity on the economy and safety

Finally raising issues that matter to me

Safety

Strong leader

A better economy

+4

+2

+1

+1

+1

+3

The right approach to taxes

Stands up for America

+4 Honesty

+5 Stands up for corporate special interests on behalf of ordinary people




6 13 15 16

21 22 23 25 30 38 47

Authentic and likeable

Family and women

Big business and big money

Affirmative action/Equal rights

Abortion rights/Gay marriage

President Obama's work

Qualifications for President

Immigration

Obamacare

Safe from terrorists

Jobs and the economy

Her lead is based on her leadership qualities

30

Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people say they might vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. After I read this list, tell me which THREE are the most important in your decision.


31

THE SENATE STORY

39 48

44 45 38

44 42 38 41 44

36

46

AZ NC NV

Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand.


Room for Democratic Senate vote to grow in diverse states

32

+10 +2 +6 +2

Arizona North Carolina Nevada

-- +5

Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?

President Senate President Senate President Senate

DIVERSE STATES

41 41 45 44 41 41

36 32

47 43

38 46 46

40 46 45

NH OH PA WI

Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand.


Democratic Senate candidates competitive with room to grow

33

+3 +9 +8 -- -- +1

New Hampshire Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin

+12 +1

Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?

President Senate President Senate President Senate President Senate

RUSTBELT STATES

25

10

57

Very certain to vote for Democrats Somewhat certain to vote for Democrats Will not vote for Democrats

34

One quarter of GOP Senate voters defect on hearing GOP abortion, gun and gay marriage agenda

Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose:

• Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people

After hearing the Republican candidates takes these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?

Not Voting for Senate Democrat*

* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan

+35

36

19

13

10

Opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest

Opposes restricting gun rights for people on theterror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault

rifles

Opposes gay marriage and new laws barringdiscrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender

people

Opposes new laws guaranteeing equal pay forwomen

35

Abortion, guns and gay marriage drive GOP Senate voters to Democrats down ballot [IFWILL VOTE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE AFTER HEARING GOP INFO] Which one of the Republican candidates' positions bothered you the most?

SENATE BATTLEGROUND

15 percent volunteered

all of the above

64 38 41

53 37

77

49 57 61

55

15 41 36 33 40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Will not vote for Democrats

Very certain vote for Dems

36

Democratic votes to be gained down-ballot, especially among RAE in diverse states

Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose:

• Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people

After hearing the Republican candidates take these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?

* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan

Clinton NOT Senate Dem

RAE Diverse States

Unmarried Women

Diverse States Undecided in Senate Vote

Millennials Diverse States

Not Voting for Senate Democrat*

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 22 Bloomsbury Sq. London, UK WC1A 2NS T: +44 (0)20 3740 9029

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 25 Broadway 9th Floor New York, NY 10004 T: (212) 231 0050

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q.31 i know it's a long way off, but thinking about …...clinton trump johnson clinton trump...

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