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Page 1: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Q4 2019 results

Investor presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

Page 2: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Contents

2

Highlights Q4 2019 3

Premiums and portfolio 9

Claims and expenses 13

Investment, capital and targets 18

Roadshows & Conferences 26

Background material 27

Appendix 46

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-

looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can

generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.

A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general

economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in

legislation or case law and reinsurance.

We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could

materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.

We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law.

Page 3: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Technical result (DKKm)

• Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by:

• Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively impacted by Alka & related synergies and underlying improvement

• Expense ratio of 14.6% (14.4% excl. Alka)

• Investment income boosted by strong equity returns, 7.2% vs -14.9% in Q4 2018

• Technical result of DKK 762m

• Stable improvement of the underlying claims ratio, Group & Private improved by 50 bps

• Weather and large claims below normal levels (but in line with Q4 2018), run-off result at 4.7% (4.1%) on the COR

• Expense ratio of 14.6% (14.4% excluding Alka)

• FY technical result of DKK 3,237m helped by more than DKK 250m lower than normal large and weather claims

• Investment income of DKK 198m (DKK -330m)

• Highly positive development in equity markets impact free portfolio return

• Match portfolio reported a small positive result

• No significant changes to asset mix

• Q4 DPS 1.70, Extraordinary DPS 1.65, Solvency ratio 162• Eighth year with an increased ordinary dividend (since 2012)

• Extraordinary DPS of 1.65 (DKK 500m)

• Solvency ratio of 162 as per year end (dividends already deducted), updated internal model sent to Danish FSA

3

Combined ratio

Expense ratio

Financial highlights Q4 2019- Improved technical result driven by profitable growth in the Private segment and the inclusion of Alka and related synergies, Q4 DPS of DKK 1.70 and Extraordinary DPS of DKK 1.65 (DKK 500m), solvency ratio of 162

Page 4: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Customer highlights Q4 2019

4

TNPS

Number of products per customer

• Transactional Net Promoter Score (TNPS) of 68 (67)

• Retention levels showed improvements in all business areas

• Number of products per customer unchanged compared to prior year

• In Q4, awareness of TryghedsGruppen’s member bonus among non-customers increased to 28%, up by 27% compared with the same period prior year

Page 5: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Improved technical result primarily driven by Private & Commercial

Q4 2018 business segments result not impacted by the one-offs from the Alka consolidation

5

Commercial, DK & NO (DKKm)*

Sweden (DKKm)*

Group (DKKm)

Corporate (DKKm)*

Private, DK & NO (DKKm)*

• Private - run-off level Q4 2019: 1.1% (2.9%)

• Commercial - run-off level Q4 2019: 3.3% (15.4%)

• Corporate - run-off level Q4 2019: 8.2% (5.5%)

• Sweden run-off level Q4 2019: 29.5% (6.1%)

Page 6: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

• Full run rate synergies impact in 2021 of DKK 300m

• 25% impact expected in 2019, 50% impact in 2020

• DKK 24m achieved in Q4 2019, half of it is costs

• General costs reduction (sponsorship, staff etc.)

• Synergies due to improved reinsurance power

• Claims synergies confirmed through detailed analysis of more than 700 contracts

• Significant potential in Motor claims procurement (average claims costs 8% lower in Tryg than Alka)

• Significant savings potential also in property claims

Alka synergies status update

135

90

75

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Claims Cost optimisation Revenueoptimisation andcommercial best

practice

Run-ratesynergies

DKK 300m

Realised benefits FY 2019 and targeted benefits 2021 (DKKm)

Targeted benefits 2019-2021

Alka merger benefits by category 2021

DKKm

DKKm

6

Page 7: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Shareholders’ remuneration

7

Shareholder remuneration since 2012

DKK

3.5

Share price performance since IPO

• Q4 DPS 1.70 (1.65), FY ExtraordinaryDPS 1.65

• Aim for a nominal stable increasingordinary dividend (annual)

• Quarterly dividend evenly distributed in different quarters

• High proftibility and low growth implieslimited increase in capital requirement

Strong focus on shareholders’ remuneration

Value of Tryg since IPO (DKKbn)

-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

Tryg equity Euro insurance index

Page 8: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

• STP: 36% (target of 50% in 2020)

Primary driver for STP from optimizing

existing robots to handle more claims, and

from the new claims handling system

starting to handle simple claim requests.

• Self Service: 61% (target of 70% in 2020)

Solutions enabling self service are

continuously being made available to

customers in Denmark, Norway and

Sweden. Online insurance check in

Denmark is an example of this.

• Financial benefits: DKK 60m

Digital initiatives across the Nordics have

realized benefits for approximately DKK

60m.

• Private business: ~DKK 60m

• Optimization of the channel mix ensures

better customer experience and efficient

distribution.

• In Denmark independent sales agents shows

good results thus improving the distribution

efficiency.

• Commercial business: ~DKK 30m

• In Norway distribution mix has been adjusted

to meet market demands more effectively.

• New sales agent profiles and independent

agents in Denmark improves distribution

efficiency.

• Across segments in Denmark and Norway,

partner agreements such as FDM, NITO and

Danske Bank have generated good leads.

Strategic initiatives

8

Digital Empowerment of CustomersFinancial Target DKK 100m – Total improvement DKK 60m

Distribution EfficiencyFinancial Target DKK 150m in 2020 – Total improvement DKK 90m

Claims ExcellenceFinancial Target DKK 600m in 2020 – Total improvement DKK 350m

Product & Service InnovationPremium target of DKK 1bn in 2020+ - Total GWP DKK 650m

• ~DKK 175m: Savings from leverage of

Trygs procurement power. In 2019 a

contract renewal of windshields services,

and a new 5 year contract with Recover

Nordic are examples of initiatives in this

area.

• ~DKK 145m: Improvement of the claims

handling process. E.g. increased focus on

using Tryg partners for auto repairs,

higher quality in claim assessments and

better recourse management.

• ~DKK 30m: Benefits from implementing

the fraud detection methodology from

Alka.

• New market demands addressed through

a balanced mix between new products,

bundling and prevention.

• ~DKK 450m: New products (e.g. Cyber,

Undo:, Pet, GoMore)

• ~DKK 150m: Bundling (e.g. Health, Child,

Group accident)

• ~DKK 50m: Prevention (e.g. Tryg Drive,

Alarm, Rat blocker)

• Tryg now has offices in Germany, Austria

and the Netherlands to promote the credit

and surety business, Tryg Garanti.

Page 9: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Premiums and portfolio

Page 10: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Gross earned premiums development

(Local currencies)

Group premiums up 10.4% in Q4, 5.6% excl Alka

10

DKKm Q4 2019 Q4 2018Local currencies

Q4 2019Local currencies

Q4 2018

Private 3,059 2,679 16.2% 21.2%

Commercial 1,079 1,044 4.8% 6.8%

Corporate 987 987 1.1% 2.9%

Sweden 364 361 3.3% 7.7%

Group 5,479 5,053 10.4% 13.0%

• Group premiums were up 10.4% in local currencies, or 5.6% excluding Alka

• Group premiums impacted in Q4 by a high level of bonus & rebates (strong profitability of partner agreements)

• Private lines reported a 7.6% growth excluding Alka, positive trends in both Denmark and Norway

• Commercial growth was 4.8% helped by portfolio acquisitions and positive underlying development

• Corporate growth was up 1.1% primarily driven by price increases and Tryg Garanti

• Sweden increased by 3.3% primarily driven by a strong growth in pet insurance and motor business

Page 11: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

11

Private - average prices

• DK: 2.3% positive developmentreflects price increases

• NO: 1.6% positive developmentreflects underlying priceincreases. Avg Motor price is higher in Norway primarilyreflecting different types of cars

• DK: 1.4% positive development reflects price adjustments

• NO: 2.4% positive development reflects primarily price adjustments

Average price:

5,100 6,200

House insurance – average price (index 2011 = 100)

Average price development Y/Y

1.4% 2.4%

(Q3 1.4%) (Q3 2.3%)

Average price

4,600 6,000

Motor insurance – average price (index 2011 = 100)

Average price development Y/Y

2.3% 1.6%

(Q3 2.0%) (Q3 1.8%)

Page 12: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Customer retention improved in all areas

12

• DK: customer retention up to 88.6% (88.0%) showing strongimprovement

• NO: customer retention at 89.0% (87.7%) showing an improvedtrend

• DK: customer retention at 91.6% (91.2%)

• NO: customer retention up to 87.1% (86.7%) showing an significant improvement

Commercial

Private

DK

Page 13: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Claims and expenses

Page 14: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Group underlying claims ratio at 73.4, 50bps better than Q4 2018

Private underlying claims ratio at 69.2, 50bps better than Q4 2018

Underlying claims ratios in all quarters in 2018 have been adjusted for Alka

“Expected FY 2020 underlying claims ratio better than FY 2019”

Corporate profitability not satisfactory for current underwriting year, profitability

initiatives across all book in 2020

Underlying claims ratio improving

14

Claims ratio, net (Commercial DK & NO)

Claims ratio, net (Sweden)

Group Underlying Claims ratioClaims ratio, net (Corporate)

Private Underlying Claims Ratio

Underlying development is adjusted for run-off, large claims, weather claims and interest.

Underlying development is adjusted for run-off, large claims, weather claims and interest.

Page 15: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

T

Project Description: Impact / Results

Category / Project Spend Country and Business impacts

• Claims has been working on a project with the aim to repair motor vehicles in a more sustainable way, by recycling used spare parts

• The repairment process is based on a collaboration between the engineers responsible for handling and distributing used parts and the claims department

• New system allows for improved view of the used part stock availability

• Work Shops are measured on providing at least one used part per 8 out of 10 value assessments

• Damage parts have to be replaced with original used parts of equal or better standards then previously

• No safety equipment/details are to be replaced with used part

2020 2021

Savings:

• Higher than DKK 10m*

*Approximate number

Project addressable spend:

The spend applies to cars that are 5 years or older (passenger cars and vans). Spend not including paint/coating.

• Total spend for 2019: DKK 317m

BU

Benefits:

• Recycling - environmental impacts

• Reduced Claims expenses • Circular economy • More volume and labor for

the workshops

Claims

Claims has for 2019 recycled 2,5% of used motor parts for repairs on cars older than 5 years. This amounts to approx. 2500 fewer car parts needed to be produced. Used spare parts are

leveraged in claims processes across all three countries. Improvements in the current process will yield:

NEW Parts

Safety Parts

Used Parts: 2,5% → 5% (2021)

Car A

Car B Car B

Savings:

• ~ DKK 7m*

*Approximate number

Claims Procurement - Recycling of used motor parts

Page 16: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Large claims, weather claims and run-off

16

Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%)

Weather claims, net DKKmLarge claims, net DKKm

Expected annual level 2019: DKK 600mExpected annual level 2019: DKK 550m

Claims reserves discounting rate (%)

Page 17: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Q4 Expense ratio of 14.6, FY at 14.2

17

FTE - Development

Expense ratio

Expense ratio by business areas

• The introduction of efficiency initiatives in 2017 has ensured a continued focus on cost in the business

• Expense ratio target for 2020 around 14%

• Investments in digitalisation will somewhat offset further efficiency gains

• Higher number of employees driven by higher premium level and in-sourcing in IT and Claims

14.4

Adjusted for Alka

Page 18: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Front page slide

Investment, capital and targets

Page 19: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

19

Total investmentsDKK 39.6 bn

Free portfolioDKK 11.4 bn

Match portfolioDKK 28.2 bn

DenmarkDKK 15 bn

NorwayDKK 8 bn

SwedenDKK 5 bn

Investments – Split in Match & Free portfolio

Splitting up the portfolio ‘risk-wise’

Page 20: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Investment return – low risk remains key

20

DKKm Q4 2019 Q4 2018 2018

Free portfolio226 -198 -33

Match portfolio 19 -42 -2

Other financial income and expenses -47 -90 -297

Total investment return 198 -330 -332

Key figures - InvestmentsDifferent asset classes Geographical exposure (%)

92%

1%

2% 3%1% 1%

AAA AA A BBB BB B or lowe r

Group fixed income portfolio rating split Corporate bonds portfolio (DKK 3.2 bn) rating split

Page 21: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Solvency position Q4 2019

21

• Solvency ratio based on the Partial Internal Model is 162 (Q3 2019: 169).

• Own Funds (OF) is primarily impacted by

• Result Q4 2019 of DKK 705m

• Dividends (Ordinary and Extraordinary) of DKK 1.012m

SCR is primarily impacted by

• Market fluctuations

• Based on Solvency II Standard Formula the solvency ratio is 131 (Q3 2019: 136).

• Standard Formula SCR DKK 6.293m

• Application for updated internal model sent to Danish FSA, including Sweden and other smaller changes.

Own funds walk

Solvency capital requirement walk

8,1198,464

705 -1.012

-38

7,100

7,600

8,100

8,600

9,100

9,600

Ow

n F

unds

Q3 '19

Results

Q4 '19

Cash d

ivid

end

Mis

cellaneous

Ow

n F

unds

Q4 '19

5,0215,000

50 -29

4,600

4,650

4,700

4,750

4,800

4,850

4,900

4,950

5,000

5,050

5,100

SCR

Q3

'19

Mar

ket

Oth

er

SCR

Q4

'19

Page 22: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Capital and solvency ratio development

22

• Tier 2 cap means that DKK 142m of subordinated loans are not included in Own funds

• Tier 1 capacity for practical purposes fully utilized, DKK 17m left as per Q4 (down from DKK 126m as per Q3 as Core Equity Tier 1 reduced by Extraordinary dividend) .

• The Danish FSA has explained that a ratio lower than 125 would result in increased surveillance.

• Solvency ratio development mostly a function of net profits (+) and dividends (-). Underlying development should remain pretty stable.

Capital Tiers as % of SCR

Solvency ratio development

165% 168% 171% 169%162%

Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19

4,501 90%

1,108 22%

2,510 50%

Q4 '19DKKm

Q4 '19% of SCR

CETier 1

ATier 1

Tier 2

Page 23: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Solvency ratio sensitivities

23

• The Solvency II ratio shows the highest sensitivity to spread risk for covered bonds• Assumption is for a 100bps widening/narrowing of our entire fixed income book (Danish government bonds, Danish

mortgage bonds, Norwegian government bonds, high yield etc.)

• Biggest spreads sensitivity (by far) in the fixed income area is towards covered bonds. Corporate and Government bonds sensitivities are low as exposure to these assets classes is low

• The Solvency II ratio is not highly sensitive to equity markets movements as most of the ‘Own funds’ hit from a sharp fall in equity markets would be offset by a lower capital requirement (lower market values combined with the effect of a reduced charge due to equity-dampener)

• Interest rate risk is very low as function of our matching strategy

162% 163%160%

168%

155%

161%163%

148%

175%

161%163%161%

163% 164%159% 160%

164%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

2019 Equity Property Interest Spread(Covered)

Spread(Corporate)

Spread(Government)

NOK/DKK SEK/DKK

Page 24: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Targets and outlook

24

✓ Financial targets for 2020 are firmly maintained

✓ As mentioned before the Alka acquisition will result in

annual depreciation of customer relations of

DKK127m within a 5 to 7 years period. Solvency

position (hence dividend capacity) not impacted by

the P&L charge

Customer targets, 2020

Financial targets, 2020

TNPS 70

No. of products per customer +10 %

Targets post Alka acquisition

Technical result DKK 3.3bn

Combined ratio ≤ 86

Expense ratio ~ 14

ROE after tax ≥ 21%

ROE after tax (%)

Page 25: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

It is important to know your investment case

25

”Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure?

It’s to see my dividends coming in.”

John D. Rockefeller

Page 26: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Date Place Participants from Tryg Arranged by

22/01/2020 Copenhagen

Morten Hübbe, CEO

Barbara Plucnar Jensen, CFO

Investor Relations

Nordea

23/01/2020 LondonMorten Hübbe, CEO

Gianandrea Roberti, IROCarnegie

23/01/2020 GenevaBarbara Plucnar Jensen, CFO

Peter Brondt, IR ManagerSEB

29/01/2020 Abu Dhabi/DubaiJohan Kirstein Brammer, CCO

Gianandrea Roberti, IROCarnegie

29/01/2020 OsloEspen Opedal, Head of NorwayPeter Brondt, IR Manager

DNB

04-05/02/2020 TokyoBarbara Plucnar Jensen, CFO

Peter Brondt, IR ManagerGoldman Sachs

19/03/2020 LondonPeter Brondt, IR Manager

Nikolaj Thalbitzer, IR AssociateMorgan Stanley Conference

30/03/2020 Ballerup

Supervisory Board

Morten Hübbe, CEO

Barbara Plucnar Jensen, CFO

Johan Kirstein Brammer, CCO

Lars Bonde, COO

Investor Relations

Tryg’s AGM

Q4 roadshows & conferences

2626

Page 27: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Background material

Page 28: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Claims Excellence

DKK 600m in claims cost reduction

Digital Empowerment

of Customers

DKK 100mSTP on claims: 50%Self-service: 70%

Tryg 2018 – 2020:

Strengthening the core, while embracing the future Product & Service

Innovation

+DKK 1bn in new products by 2020+

Distribution Efficiency

DKK 150m in technical result impact

Financial targets 2020

• Technical result: DKK 3.3bn

• Combined ratio: ≤86

• Expense ratio: ~14

• ROE: ≥21%

Customer targets 2020

• TNPS: 70

• Number of products per customer: +10%

Dividend policy

• Targeting a nominal, stable and increasing dividend

• Extraordinary dividend to further adjust the capital structure

Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation

Tryg’s equity story – a leading Scandinavian non-life insurer

28

Alka acquisition

DKK 300m in synergies with full run-rate impact in 2021

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Why invest in Tryg?

29

Pre-tax result by division (YE 2018 data)

Tryg is a dividend stockMotor combined ratios Nordics vs international

Total yield (dividend and buy backs / market cap) at year end

DKK

High insurance penetration in the Nordics

Premiums per capita (USD), 2017

Page 30: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Tryg at a glance

30

• Tryg goes back to the 18th century.

• Very strong brand position especially in Denmark.

• Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

• Approx. 80% retail business.

Retention rate - Private

Retention rate - Commercial

NorwayMarket position: #4

Market share: 13.1%CR in Q4 2019: 91.0 %

SwedenMarket position: #5Market share: 3.3%

CR in Q4 2019: 87.2 %

DenmarkMarket position: #1

Market share: 21.6%CR in Q4 2019: 83.5 % Business split 2019

Gross premium split by products 2019

Percentage

Percentage

DK

Page 31: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Premiums and reserves by lines of business

31

Run-off net by products Q4 2018

Percentage

Run-off net by products Q4 2019

Percentage

Gross claims reserve by products 2019

Percentage

Gross premium by products 2019

Percentage

Page 32: Q4 2019 results - Tryg · 2020-01-22 · Technical result (DKKm) •Pre-tax profit of DKK 940m (DKK 149m) driven by: •Technical result of DKK 762m (DKK 656m excl. Alka) positively

Gross premium split by geography

32

SE: Gross premium by products 2019

Percentage

Run-off net by products 2019

Percentage

DK: Gross premium by products 2019

Percentage

NO: Gross premium by products 2019

Percentage

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The run-off cycle

33

Run-off development

3 years

Claims buffer:

Run-off:

Claims estimate:

We assessed the claim at DKK 18,000 but reserve for DKK 20,000

• Initial assessment of the claims was DKK 18,000, but Tryg reserved for

DKK 20,000 adding some conservatism to best estimate

• At the time of setting up the claims reserves and booking the claims in the P&L,

the Loss ratio (hence the combined ratio) is worse than what should be if our initial

assessment is correct.

• After three years, (approx. and using average for Tryg group) the DKK 2,000

added for conservatism comes back in the P&L as a positive run-off gain or

reserves releases. All the above assumes that initial assessment was correct and

nothing has changed in the three years period.

• Figures in the example above are purely illustrative.

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Combined ratio development

34

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Structure of the Nordic insurance market

35

Denmark

DKK 56.6 bn/EUR 7.6bn (as at Q4 2018)

Sweden

SEK 86.6 bn/EUR 8.2bn (as at Q3-2019)

Norway

NOK 62,1 bn/EUR 6,4bn (as at Q3-2019)

Nordic

EUR 26.3bn (as at Q4 2018)

Percentage

PercentagePercentage

Percentage

Fremtind excluding DnB Liv and Sparebank1 Liv = 14.0

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Distribution of new sales 2019

36

Private

Commercial

Corporate

DK

DK

DK

NO

NO

NO

SE

SE

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Things that you may not know

37

• Motor insurance prices relatively similar in DK and the UK but cost of the insured good

(the car) substantially higher in DK driven by the registration tax for passenger cars

(100%-150% of taxable value on new vehicles approx.).

• Motor insurance remains a highly attractive business in Scandinavia unlike many

European countries.

• In Oslo, it costs approx. NOK 5,000 per month to hire a dog walker for 5 weekly walks,

each walk is minimum 60 minutes.

• In Sweden it is illegal to leave a dog home alone more than six hours, the dog has to be

out at least every six hours during the day.

• Pet insurance premiums totalled SEK 3.3bn at the end of September 2015 in Sweden

but that includes horses as well.

• Tryg believes that Pet insurance remains an attractive growth segment.

• Child insurance is an important product in Sweden with total market premiums above

SEK 2.5bn, the same product is virtually non-existent in Denmark and Norway. We

believe this will gradually change and plan to leverage on our Skandia child insurance

acquisition.

• In 2014, Tryg bought Securator reinforcing its leading position in the Nordic market for

product and extended warranty insurance, a market which is estimated at more than

DKK 2bn.

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Things that you may not remember

• Our maximum annual net exposure to a single large Property claim is DKK

100m which falls to DKK 75m in case of a second event and

DKK 50m in case of a third/fourth event, DKK 30m in case of a fifth event

and thereafter DKK 25m. This is based on our general reinsurance

programme.

• Our maximum net exposure for weather claims is DKK 150m per event.

The upper limit of the programme is DKK 7.25bn, which is statistically

sufficient to cover at least a 250-year event.

• We have bought an additional ‘horisontal’ reinsurance programme which

will cover any weather claims in excess of DKK 300m up to DKK 600m.

Weather claims have to be at least DKK 20m to end in the ‘horisontal’

agreement.

• Local accounting rules driven by Danish FSA means that all assets are

marked to market. This is different from Nordic/International peers where

many fixed income portfolios are hold to maturity and/or the marked to

market hits the NAV and not the P&L. The unrealised gains and losses

item does not show up in the P&L of some of our Nordic peers (as most

bonds are hold to maturity) or hits the NAV as opposed to the P&L.

38

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IBM study from 2007, probably little has changed

39

• Overall I am very satisfied with the

services of my insurance company

• My insurance agent only sold me

insurance coverage that I really needed

• My present insurance coverage offers

me enough flexibility

• Claims: my insurance company in

uncomplicated and helpful way

• I have full confidence in my personal

insurance agent

• My insurance is more cost effective than

most other insurances

Danish customers completely and strongly agree

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value and I.VW University of St. Gallen 2007 Insurance Study

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Population growth (2000-2019)

DK 9%

NO 19%

Population development in Norway in ‘1,000

Population development in Denmark in ‘1,000

40

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41

TryghedsGruppen and its members’ bonus

Denmark's ‘biggest’ family

Every 4th Dane receives a bonus!8% in 2019

> DKK 600mto Private customers

> DKK 210mcommercial customers

> DKK 115m for corporate customers

‘I expect to be in Tryg next year’

93%

81%

Bonus has a positive effect on retention

Have heard about Customer bonus

Have not heard about Customer Bonus

Retention rate increase by 1% gives approx. DKK 50-150m reduction in expenses on group level

TryghedsGruppen’s highest govern body is the Board of

representatives. The Board composes 70 representatives

chosen by and among Tryg’s Danish customers. Every year,

there is an election in one of the five geographical regions in

Denmark.

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42

Organisational and remuneration structure

Organisation chart Remuneration structure

The Executive Board are remunerated according to Tryg’s remuneration policy:

• Base salary

• Pensiono 25% of the base salary

• Variable pay

o Up to 50% of the base salary including pension

o The variable pay element is a Matching Shares

Programme:

The Executive Board may buy Tryg shares (so-called

investment shares) at market price for a predefined

amount. Four years after the purchase, Tryg will grant

one matching share per investment share free of charge.

Download Tryg’s statutory corporate governance report and remuneration policy on tryg.com

CEOMorten Hübbe

CFOBarbara Plucnar

Jensen

COOLars Bonde

CCOJohan Kirstein

Brammer

Private DK

Commercial DK

Corporate DK & Tryg Garanti

Claims DK

Private NO

Commercial NO

Corporate NO

Claims NO

Private SE & Affinity

Corporate SE

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Corporate Responsibility in Tryg

* Tryg means feeling protected and cared for.

43

Corporate Responsibility contributes to long-term value creation

Tryg’s Corporate Responsibility 2020 strategy is aligned with our corporate strategy and purpose: As the world changes, we make it easier to be tryg*.

• Tryg has published an independent Corporate Responsibility report 2019 on tryg.com

• Our four strategic focus areas are: Actively creating peace of mind, Climate & environment, Responsible workplace and Business etchics.

• Tryg has established a Corporate Responsibility Board to ensure governance throughout the organisation.

Corporate Responsibility BoardChair: CFO Barbara Plucnar Jensen

Procurement/ Sourcing

HR Facilities Investments

Claims Private Commercial Corporate

Legal/ Compliance

Corporate Responsibility team

Communications Investor Relations

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Tryg has a direct and indirect impact on the 17 SDGs.

However, we have focused on SDGs where we have a direct impact and pinpointed two specific goals for which we have defined Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

Corporate Responsibility in TrygUN Sustainable Development Goals

44

Strong opportunity

Low opportunity

Indirect impact

Direct impact

41% women in management positions in 2020

2%reduction in carbon emissions in 2020

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Key figures 2019 and Consensus 2020-2021

45

DKKm 2019A 2020 2021

Gross premium income 21,741 22,376 22,931

Technical result 3,237 3,362 3,535

Investment income, net 579 140 148

Pre-tax profit 3,628 3,305 3,488

Net income 2,845 2,572 2,711

Combined ratio 85.1% 85.0% 84.6%

Expense ratio 14.2% 13.9% 13.9%

Ordinary dividend per share 6.80 7.00 7.18

Extraordinary dividend per share 1.65 1.56 1.82

Based on 17 estimates ahead of Q4 2019

Consensus

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AppendixFollow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

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Group

47

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

Gross premiums

%DKKm %

% %

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Private

48

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

Gross premiums

%DKKm

* Including two months Alka

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Commercial*

49

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

Gross premiums

%DKKm

* Less than 100 employees or less than DKK 100m turnover

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Corporate*

50

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

Gross premiums

%DKKm

* More than 100 employees or more than DKK 100m turnover

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Sweden

51

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

Gross premiums

%DKKm

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52

Geographical combined ratio

Denmark Sweden

Norway

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Corporate history

53

• 1728, Copenhagen experienced what was later to be known as the Copenhagen Fire of 1728. The fire heightened public

awareness of the need for insurance

• 1731, The oldest component of Tryg’s history was the Danish insurance company Kjøbenhavns Brand was established by

Royal Decree as a result of the Copenhagen Fire of 1728

• 1880, The Norwegian insurance company Vesta was established. The name Vesta derives from Roman mythology, Vesta is

the goddess of hearth, home and family

• 1911, The name Tryg emerged (Tryg means peace of mind in Danish)

• 1990, The mutual company Tryg demutualised and the ownership of the new limited company was placed in Tryg I

Danmark

• 1994, Tryg acquired the Danish insurance operations of Winterthur

• 1995, Tryg acquired Baltica and continued operations under the name Tryg-Baltica

• 1996, Tryg-Baltica was listed on Copenhagen Stock Exchange. Tryg I Danmark retained a 60% ownership

• 1999, Tryg-Baltica merged with Denmark’s second largest banking group, Unidanmark whose general insurance activities

were integrated with Tryg. Tryg-Baltica de-listed

• At the end of 1999 the Norwegian insurance company Vesta was acquired from Skandia

• 2000, Tryg, Vesta and Unibank contributed to the formation of Nordea. Tryg I Danmark holds at this point a 6% stake in

the Nordic banking group

• 2001, Tryg established a branch in Finland

• 2002, Tryg I Danmark acquired Nordea’s non life activities and forms TrygVesta

• 2005, TrygVesta was listed on the OMX Nordic Stock Exchange in Copenhagen on October 14

• 2006, TrygVesta launched a Swedish branch in June

• 2009, The acquisition of the Swedish insurance company, Moderna, was completed in April

• 2012, Tryg sells its Finnish business to Sampo/If….

• 2015, Tryg split its share 1:5, meaning each share with a nominal value of DKK 25 was replaced by 5 shares with a

nominal value of DKK 5

• 2018, Tryg received the final approval of the Alka acquisition from the Danish authorities

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Sweden

% 2020E 2021E

GDP Growth (mainland) 1.0 1.6

Inflation 1.5 1.4

Unemployment 7.1 7.2

Current account balance in % of GDP

4.8 5.0

Budget balance in % of GDP -0.5 -0.6

Public debt in % of GDP 35.8 35.4

Norway

% 2020E 2021E

GDP Growth 2.3 2.1

Inflation 2.2 2.0

Unemployment 3.2 3.1

Current account balance in % of GDP

5.9 6.0

Budget balance in % of GDP 5.1 5.1

Public debt in % of GDP 0.0 0.0

Economic key figures

54

Source: Economic Outlook, Nordea Markets, September 2019

Denmark

% 2020E 2021E

GDP Growth 1.5 1.5

Inflation 1.2 1.4

Unemployment 3.9 3.9

Current account balance in % of GDP

5.5 5.1

Budget balance in % of GDP 0.6 0.0

Public debt in % of GDP 33.4 33.2