q4 fy16 earnings slides final no guidance
TRANSCRIPT
August 17, 2016
Q4 Fiscal Year 2016 Conference Call
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of Cisco, including future operating results. These projections and statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially from those in the projections or other forward-looking statements. Please see Cisco’s filings with the SEC, including its most recent filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of important risk factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those in the projections or other forward-looking statements.
GAAP RECONCILIATION During this presentation references to financial measures of Cisco will include references to non-GAAP financial measures. Cisco provides a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information on our website at www.cisco.com under “Financial Info” in the “Investor Relations” section. http://investor.cisco.com/investor-relations/financial-information/Financial-Results/default.aspx
Business Momentum & Key Trends
Financial Overview
Business Outlook
Q&A
Q4 & FY 2016 Highlights
• Executed extremely well in Q4: revenue growth of 2% y/y* and record non-GAAP EPS which grew 9% y/y*
• FY16 revenue of $48.7B, up 3% y/y* and record non-GAAP EPS of $2.36, up 8% y/y*
• Gross and operating margins consistently strong throughout the year
• Service Provider and Emerging Markets turned negative in Q4 with orders down 5% and 6% respectively y/y*…the remainder of the business remained healthy with orders growing 5% y/y*
• Overall macro environment remains uncertain….well positioned to capture the benefits of any tailwinds
• Aggressively investing in priority areas to drive growth over the long term, regardless of the environment
• Strong performance in security, data center switching, collaboration and services as well as continued success in the transition of our business model to software and subscriptions
• Focused on accelerating innovation across our portfolio
* Year-over-year growth normalized to exclude the SP Video CPE Business for Q4 and FY 2015, which was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Business Momentum & Key Trends
Financial Overview
Business Outlook
Q&A
$M
Y/Y %
Change*
Switching $3,794 2%
NGN Routing 1,876 (6%)
Collaboration 1,149 6%
Data Center 873 (1%)
Wireless 752 5%
Security 540 16%
Service Provider Video 444 (12%)
Other Products 124 114%
Service 3,086 5%
Total Cisco $12,638 2%
Q4 FY 2016 – Revenue Highlights
Certain reclassifications have been made to the amounts for prior periods in order to conform to the current period’s presentation. Historical revenue by product category and service is available on our website at http://investor.cisco.com under “Financial Info” in the “Investor Relations” section.
30%
15%
9% 7%
6%
4%
4%
1%
24% Switching
NGN Routing
Collaboration
Data Center
Wireless
Security
SP Video
Other
Service
Revenue % of Total
Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding
* Year-over-year growth normalized to exclude the SP Video CPE Business for Q4 FY 2015, which was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015. SP Video CPE Business revenue was $487M for Q4 FY 2015.
Q4 FY 2016 Product Orders: Geographic Regions & Customer Segments
Geographic Region Y/Y % Change*
Americas 3%
EMEA (3%)
APJC 4%
Total Cisco 1%
Product Book to Bill Comfortably above 1
Customer Segment Y/Y % Change*
Enterprise 3%
Public Sector 1%
Commercial 5%
Service Provider (5%)
Total Cisco 1%
* Year-over-year growth is normalized to exclude the SP Video CPE Business for Q4 FY 2015, which was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Q4 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2015 Y/Y Change
Excluding SP
Video CPE
Business $M (except per-share amounts and percentages)
Total Cisco Total Cisco SP Video
CPE
Business
Excluding SP
Video CPE
Business
Revenue $12,638 $12,843 $487 $12,356 2%
Gross Margin 64.6% 62.1% 17.1% 63.9% 0.7pts
Operating Expenses $4,202 $4,216 $37 $4,179 1%
OPEX (% of Revenue) 33.2% 32.8% 7.5% 33.8% -0.6pts
Operating Income $3,966 $3,759 $46 $3,713 7%
Operating Income (% of Revenue) 31.4% 29.3% 9.5% 30.1% 1.3pts
Net Income $3,189 $3,012 $37 $2,975 7%
EPS (diluted)* $0.63 $0.59 $0.01 $0.58 9%
Q4 FY 2016 Non-GAAP Income Statement Details
* Amounts may not sum due to rounding.
Q4 FY 2016 GAAP Income Statement Highlights
$M (except per-share amounts and percentages) Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016
Revenue* $12,843 $12,000 $12,638
Product
Service
$9,911
$2,932
$8,875
$3,125
$9,552
$3,086
Gross Margin 60.2% 64.3% 63.1%
Product Gross Margin
Service Gross Margin
59.0%
64.5% 63.8%
65.9%
62.2%
66.0%
Operating Expenses $4,852 $4,737 $4,672
OPEX (% of Revenue) 37.8% 39.5% 37.0%
Operating Income (% of Revenue) 22.4% 24.9% 26.1%
Net Income $2,319 $2,349 $2,813
Year/Year Change 3% (4%) 21%
EPS (diluted) $0.45 $0.46 $0.56
Year/Year Change 5% (2%) 24%
*Includes SP Video CPE Business revenue for Q4 FY 2015 of $487M. The SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Capital Allocation
$M Q1 FY 2016 Q2 FY 2016 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016 FY 2016
Share Repurchases $1,207 $1,262 $649 $800 $3,918
Dividends Paid 1,068 1,065 1,308 1,309 4,750
Total $2,275 $2,327 $1,957 $2,109 $8,668
Share Repurchase Program*
Amount Purchased
($M)
Number of Shares
(M)
Avg. Price Per
Share
Q4 FY 2016 Purchases $800 28 $28.70
FY 2016 Purchases $3,918 148 $26.45
Q1 FY 2016 Q2 FY 2016 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016 FY 2016
Dividends per Share $0.21 $0.21 $0.26 $0.26 $0.94
*Approximately $15.4B remaining authorized funds in repurchase program as of the end of Q4 FY 2016.
Business Momentum & Key Trends
Financial Overview
Business Outlook
Q&A
Business Momentum & Key Trends
Financial Overview
Business Outlook
Q&A
Q&A
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS These presentation slides and the related conference call contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding future events (such as the impact of the challenging macro environment, our ability to successfully invest in key priority areas such as security, IoT, collaboration, next generation data center and cloud, our ability to deliver shareholder value, profitable growth and strong margins, continued growth of our software and subscriptions business, and the size of the restructuring and the amount and timing of the related charges) and the future financial performance of Cisco that involve risks and uncertainties. Readers are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are only predictions and may differ materially from actual future events or results due to a variety of factors, including: business and economic conditions and growth trends in the networking industry, our customer markets and various geographic regions; global economic conditions and uncertainties in the geopolitical environment; overall information technology spending; the growth and evolution of the Internet and levels of capital spending on Internet-based systems; variations in customer demand for products and services, including sales to the service provider market and other customer markets; the return on our investments in certain priorities, key growth areas, and in certain geographical locations, as well (as maintaining leadership in routing, switching and services; the timing of orders and manufacturing and customer lead times; changes in customer order patterns or customer mix; insufficient, excess or obsolete inventory; variability of component costs; variations in sales channels, product costs or mix of products sold; our ability to successfully acquire businesses and technologies and to successfully integrate and operate these acquired businesses and technologies; our ability to achieve expected benefits of our partnerships; increased competition in our product and service markets, including the data center market; dependence on the introduction and market acceptance of new product offerings and standards; rapid technological and market change; manufacturing and sourcing risks; product defects and returns; litigation involving patents, intellectual property, antitrust, shareholder and other matters, and governmental investigations; our ability to achieve the benefits of the announced restructuring and possible changes in the size and timing of the related charges; man-made problems such as cyber-attacks, data protection breaches, computer viruses or terrorism; natural catastrophic events; a pandemic or epidemic; our ability to achieve the benefits anticipated from our investments in sales, engineering, service, marketing and manufacturing activities; our ability to recruit and retain key personnel; our ability to manage financial risk, and to manage expenses during economic downturns; risks related to the global nature of our operations, including our operations in emerging markets, currency fluctuations and other international factors; changes in provision for income taxes, including changes in tax laws and regulations or adverse outcomes resulting from examinations of our income tax returns; potential volatility in operating results; and other factors listed in Cisco’s most recent reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K filed on May 24, 2016 and September 8, 2015, respectively. The financial information contained in these presentation slides and the related conference call should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes thereto included in Cisco’s most recent reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K as each may be amended from time to time. Cisco’s results of operations for the three months and the year ended July 30, 2016 are not necessarily indicative of Cisco’s operating results for any future periods. Any projections in these presentation slides and the related conference call are based on limited information currently available to Cisco, which is subject to change. Although any such projections and the factors influencing them will likely change, Cisco will not necessarily update the information, since Cisco will only provide guidance at certain points during the year. Such information speaks only as of the date of these presentation slides and the related conference call.
Supplemental Materials
Performance Against Q4 FY 2016 Guidance
$M (except percentages) Q4 FY 2016 Guidance Q4 FY 2016 Actual
Revenue $12,638
Year/Year Change* 0% - 3% growth 2%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 63% - 64% 64.6%
Non-GAAP Earnings per Share $0.59 - $0.61 $0.63
* Year over year growth normalized to exclude SP Video CPE Business for Q4 FY 2015, which was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Q4 FY 2016 Non-GAAP Income Statement Highlights $M (except per-share amounts and percentages) Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016
Revenue* $12,843 $12,000 $12,638
Year/Year Change
Product
Service
4%
$9,911
$2,932
(1%)
$8,875
$3,125
(2%)
$9,552
$3,086
Gross Margin 62.1% 65.2% 64.6%
Product Gross Margin
Service Gross Margin
61.0%
65.9% 64.5%
67.1%
63.9%
67.0%
Operating Expenses $4,216 $4,226 $4,202
OPEX (% of Revenue) 32.8% 35.2% 33.2%
Operating Income (% of Revenue) 29.3% 30.0% 31.4%
Net Income $3,012 $2,880 $3,189
Year/Year Change 6% 3% 6%
EPS (diluted) $0.59 $0.57 $0.63
Year/Year Change 7% 6% 7%
*Includes SP Video CPE Business revenue for Q4 FY 2015 of $487M. The SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Q4 FY 2016 Key Financial Measures
$M (except DSO, non-GAAP inventory turns and headcount) Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016
Cash and Cash Equivalents and
Investments $60,416 $63,512 $65,756
Operating Cash Flow $4,138 $3,064 $3,818
Accounts Receivable $5,344 $4,047 $5,847
Days Sales Outstanding 38 33 42
Inventory $1,627 $1,343 $1,217
Non-GAAP Inventory Turns 11.5 11.7 14.0
Purchase Commitments $4,078 $3,794 $3,896
Deferred Revenue $15,183 $15,272 $16,472
Product Deferred Revenue $5,426 $5,406 $5,851
Service Deferred Revenue $9,757 $9,866 $10,621
Headcount 71,833 73,104 73,711
$M (except per-share amounts)
Q1
FY 2015
Q2
FY 2015
Q3
FY 2015
Q4
FY 2015
Q1
FY 2016
Q2
FY 2016**
Revenue $479 $361 $519 $487 $411 $93
Gross Margin $96 $66 $84 $83 $43 $13
Operating Expenses $38 $35 $37 $37 $32 $11
Operating Income $58 $31 $47 $46 $11 $2
Net Income $45 $24 $36 $37 $8 $2
EPS (diluted) $0.01 — $0.01 $0.01 — —
SP Video CPE Business Historical Financial Information*
* Stand-alone financial information is unaudited.
** Represents one month of results as the SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
Q4 FY 2016 Geographic Revenue and Total Gross Margin
Excluding SP Video CPE Business
Revenue Total Gross Margin Percentage
$M (except percentages) Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016
Americas $7,410 $7,062 $7,638 65.0% 66.3% 64.9%
EMEA 3,021 3,001 3,105 63.6% 65.5% 65.2%
APJC 1,925 1,937 1,895 59.8% 60.4% 62.5%
Geographic Total $12,356 $12,000 $12,638 63.9% 65.2% 64.6%
Including SP Video CPE Business
Revenue* Total Gross Margin Percentage
$M (except percentages) Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2015 Q3 FY 2016 Q4 FY 2016
Americas $7,801 $7,062 $7,638 62.7% 66.3% 64.9%
EMEA 3,110 3,001 3,105 62.1% 65.5% 65.2%
APJC 1,932 1,937 1,895 59.5% 60.4% 62.5%
Geographic Total $12,843 $12,000 $12,638 62.1% 65.2% 64.6%
*Includes SP Video CPE Business revenue for Q4 FY 2015 of $487M . The SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY 2016 on November 20, 2015.
FY 2016 Non-GAAP Income Statement Highlights $M (except per-share amounts and percentages) FY 2015 FY 2016
Revenue* $49,161 $49,247
Year/Year Change
Product
Service
4%
$37,750
$11,411
0%
$37,254
$11,993
Gross Margin 62.4% 64.2%
Product Gross Margin
Service Gross Margin
61.5%
65.4%
63.3%
66.8%
Operating Expenses $16,482 $16,482
OPEX (% of Revenue) 33.5% 33.5%
Operating Income (% of Revenue) 28.9% 30.7%
Net Income $11,354 $12,022
Year/Year Change 5% 6%
EPS (diluted) $2.21 $2.36
Year/Year Change 7% 7%
*Includes SP Video CPE Business revenue for FY 2016 and FY 2015 of $504M and $1,846M, respectively. The SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY
2016 on November 20, 2015.
FY 2016 GAAP Income Statement Highlights
$M (except per-share amounts and percentages) FY 2015 FY 2016
Revenue $49,161 $49,247
Product
Service
$37,750
$11,411
$37,254
$11,993
Gross Margin 60.4% 62.9%
Product Gross Margin
Service Gross Margin
59.3%
64.0%
62.0%
65.6%
Operating Expenses $18,911 $18,300
OPEX (% of Revenue) 38.5% 37.2%
Operating Income (% of Revenue) 21.9% 25.7%
Net Income $8,981 $10,739
Year/Year Change 14% 20%
EPS (diluted) $1.75 $2.11
Year/Year Change 17% 21%
*Includes SP Video CPE Business revenue for FY 2016 and FY 2015 of $504M and $1,846M, respectively. The SP Video CPE Business was divested during Q2 FY
2016 on November 20, 2015.