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February 13 th 2019 Q4/FY 2018 Results Presentation

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Page 1: Q4/FY 2018 Results Presentationen.thenavigatorcompany.com/var/ezdemo_site/storage/... · 2019-02-13 · Chinese market Supply: • During 2018, the increase in pulp supply came from

February 13th 2019

Q4/FY 2018

Results Presentation

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1

<<

Executive Directors

Diogo da Silveira

António Redondo

Nuno Santos

João Paulo Oliveira

Investor Relations Joana Appleton

PARTICIPATION

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Q4/FY 2018 RESULTS PRESENTATION

Outlook Market Main

Highlights Group

Performance

01 02 03 04

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2

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FY 2018 /Q4 HIGHLIGHTS <<

2018: a record year for turnover, EBITDA and net profit Lower volumes of pulp and UWF paper due to production stoppages Average price for pulp, paper & tissue improved and offset production loss Total Capex of 216 M€ with conclusion of expansion projects Strong generation of FCF of € 211 million

In millions € YEAR 2018

YEAR 2017

%CHANGE 18/17

Turnover 1.692 1637 3.3%

EBITDA 455 403 12.7%

EBITDA/SALES 26.9% 24.7% 2.2 pp

ROCE 16.2% 13.6% 2.6 pp

CAPEX 216.5 114.7 101.8

Net Debt/EBITDA 1.50 1.72 -0.22

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1.132 1.095

1.385

1.488 1.502 1.531 1.542 1.628

1.577 1.637

1.692

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

272

222

400 385 385

350 328

390 397 404

455

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+49% +68%

Showing consistent and strong financial growth in the last 10 years, Navigator recorded in 2018 record values for turnover and EBITDA

Turnover in Million €. EBITDA in Million €.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2018: A RECORD YEAR

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Outlook Market Main

Highlights Group

Performance

01 02 03 04

<<

5

Q4/FY 2018 RESULTS PRESENTATION

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PIX Europe

6

<< PULP PRICES REMAIN AT A HIGH LEVEL

YoY 2018 average price increase in

BHKP:

+26% in USD

+21% in Euros

Pulp prices have been softening since the end of 2018, remaining at high levels

Week

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 7 17 27 37 47 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52 10 20 30 40 50

USD/ton BHKP EUR/ton BHKP

USD/ton €/ton

Av. 2016: 626 €/ton

Av. 2017: 729 €/ton

Av. 2018: 880 €/ton

Av. 2016: 693 USD/ton

Av. 2017: 826 USD/ton

Av. 2018: 1038 USD/ton Last PIX

(W5/2019): 1000 USD/ton

Last PIX (W5/2019): 873 €/ton

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Ch in e s e m a rk e t

Supply:

• During 2018, the increase in pulp supply came from the ramp-up of new capacity (built in previous years); there are currently no significant new pulp capacity planned for 2019 and 2020

• Supply was restricted by planned and unplanned production stoppages throughout the year

Demand:

• Demand was strong during most of 2018, namely for BHKP (+2.5% Est.), cooling down in Q4,

mainly driven by slow down in China (downtimes from paper and board producers and destocking effect from end-users)

• This led to lower pulp prices at the end of 2018

• Recently, actions from pulp producers such as production curtailments and domestic stock increases contributed to a re-balance of pulp prices; specifically, actions taken by the current world pulp production leader, Suzano, have contributed to improve market stability

Glo b a l M a rk e t S i tu a t io n

UPDATE ON THE PULP MARKET

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Source: PPPC; The Navigator Company

Share UWF On P&W global demand (exc. NP)

50%

Source: PPPC; The Navigator Company

8

YoY %

-3,6%

-0,8%

-4,5%

-5,2% TOTAL UNCOATED

WOODFREECOATED

WOODFREEUNCOATED

MECHANICALCOATED

MECHANICAL(Inc. SuperCalendered)

-7,4%

(M tons) 81.4 40.5 20.1 10.2 10.6

PAPER DEMAND IN 2018 UWF REMAINS ONE OF THE BEST PERFORMING GRADE IN P&W PAPERS

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UWF MARKET CONDITIONS

D E M A N D

P U L P P R I C E

UWF demand in 2018 was stronger in the US than in Europe; in the second half, demand rebounded in Europe namely in Cut-Size

Hardwood pulp prices remained at high levels even after year-end softening; since the start of the year, pulp prices are showing signs of picking-up

North American producers continue to close capacity; recent announcement from GP will take out of the market 8% capacity in NA

Paper prices increase announced by all producers for beginning January in Europe and for March in the US

B A L A N C E S / D

P R I C E L E V E L

Order entry in the first month of January 2019 was 1.6% above 2018 O R D E R B O O K

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Source: FOEX

EUROPEAN MARKET PAPER PRICE – A4 B-COPY

2014 2016 2015 2017 2018

10

<< UPWARD TREND IN PAPER PRICES IN 2017 AND 2018

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

€/ton

Week

Last PIX (W5 2019): 917 €/ton

Av. 2016: 823 €/ton (Var. W1-52: -3.5%)

Av. 2017: 815 €/ton (Var. W1-52: +4.1%)

Av. 2018: 873 €/ton (+9.0%)

YoY 2018 average price increase in

A4 B-COPY:

+7%

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Oultook Market Main

Highlights Group

Performance

01 02 03 04

<<

11

Q4/FY 2018 RESULTS PRESENTATION

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<< NAVIGATOR PAPER PERFORMANCE IN FY 2018

• UWF sales volume of 1.513 kton (-65 kton YoY) with product mix

improvement:

+ Premium products share up to 54% (+5 pp YoY; +47 kton)

+ Mill brands up to 69% (+7 pp YoY; +47 kton)

• Navigator led 4 paper price increases in Europe (January, March,

July & October) and implemented several increases in International

markets and in the US

• Average sales price increased 8.5% YoY in spite of FX negative impact

(USD impacted ~30% of paper sales); with constant exchange rate

price increase would have been around 10%

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<< PULP TURNOVER IMPACTED BY REDUCTION IN VOLUME

• Pulp sales in volume of 253 kton, 58 kton less YoY due to decreased

availability of pulp:

+ Start of the year with no pulp stocks available

+ Extensive downtime for planned maintenance at Setúbal

pulp mill in Q1 and maintenance downtime and capacity

increase in Figueira da Foz in Q2, with the need to build up

inventory

+ Downtime due to Leslie hurricane in Figueira da Foz in Q4

• Navigator’s net price in 2018 increased +24% YoY

• Sales mix improvement: increase in the weight of Decor and Special paper

sales in Europe, high contribution segments, from 62% to 73% YOY

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14

<< NON-INTEGRATED TISSUE BUSINESS IMPACTED BY PULP PRICE

• Overall tissue performance in 2018 impacted by the rise pulp prices (non-integrated capacity) and start-up of new tissue mill (which doubled the Group´s nominal tissue capacity)

• Global volume of tissue sold increased 14% YoY, while converted products grew by 27% already including converting sales from new mill

• Average sales price 7,5% higher YoY due to improvement in product mix (decreased weight of reels) and price increase; Sales increased 23% to € 91million (vs. € 74 million 2017)

39% Consumer

59% Away-from-Home

2% Parent Reels

51% Portugal

35% Spain

13% France & Others

Revenue by segment

(2018)

Revenue by geography

(2018)

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Note

135,7

15

<<

2018 - RECORD LEVEL OF EBITDA

Positive impact of pulp and paper prices in EBITDA

Price effect includes 25 M€ negative impact of FX

Volume

403,8

R17 Price

-54,4

-27,2

Costs Pellets, Anti-Dumping

& Others*

455,2

R18

EBITDA

M €

-2,7

* Others include change in biological assets (namely Mozambique)

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PERMANENTLY FOCUSED ON OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE

through cost reduction and efficiency - M2 program

Global 5 year target for 2016-2020: €100 million,

of which €64 million already achieved in 2016, 2017 & 2018

M2 program estimated impact

on EBITDA of € 20.8 million YOY

99 new initiatives of cost reduction since the beginning of the

year, with the following examples impacting EBITDA:

Reduction of softwood consumption (F.Foz): € 2.5 million

New pile chips management system (F.Foz): € 2 million

Overall logistics optimization (shipping/inland transportation): € 2.2 million

16

<<

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17

<<

FREE CASH FLOW AT € 211 MILLION

Free Cash Flow negatively impacted by high Capex, but positively impacted by cash from pellets sale

377,2

211,1

-216,5

-33,8

-50,4

134,5

Operating CashFlow

CAPEX Inventories Clients Suppliers &others

Free Cash Flow

M €

Free Cash Flow

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<<

NET DEBT AT € 683 MILLION

Net debt evolving positively in Q4, decreasing € 49 million Q4/Q3 and € 10 million YoY after € 216 million Capex

641 617

738 742 693

559

740 732 683

1,6 1,6 1,8 1,9

1,7

1,3

1,7 1,6 1,5

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Net debt Net debt/EBITDA

M €

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Current Average Cost of Debt

(December 2018):

1.60%

Debt maturity profile

Total debt: € 765 million Average maturity: 2.6 years

19

112

187

226

10

210

10 10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2028

<<

DEBT PROFILE

Debt Rate Profile

(December 2018):

Fixed Variable

68% 32%

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<<

2018 – FINANCIAL RESULTS

-7,7

-22,5

2017 2018

Negative impact of € 14,8 million,

resulting from:

• € 10 million change in currency hedging

costs compared with 2017

• € 3.3 million change in market value of

Cash investments

• € 1.5 million related to the difference

between the nominal and present value

of the outstanding amount regarding the

sale of the pellet business

M €

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216,5

6,5

128,8

81

CAPEX Expansion/DevelopmentCapex*

Maintenance & recurringcapex

Regulatory Capex

21

<<

CAPEX OF € 216 MILLION ( V S . € 115 M I L L I O N )

M €

CAPEX

* Includes Po3 + Tissue Cacia + Heavy Weights

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<<

START-UP OF PULP EXPANSION AT F. FOZ

Optimization Project 3

Ecoefficiency:

Total CAPEX of € 82 million

MAIN

GOALS

22

Increase the annual pulp production from 580,000 to 650,000 tAD

Increase the efficiency of pulp process

Reduce wood and chemicals specific consumption

Implementation of BAT (ex: O2 delign)

Environmental advantage for flue gas and liquid effluent emissions

Collection and burning of diluted odorous gases

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Conversion of PM3

Conversion of PM3 in Setúbal

Paper Mill

HeavyWeights

Production of Heavy Weights paper

(135g to 300g/m2)

Total estimated CAPEX

12 M€

GOAL

35kton in cruse year

exploring new business opportunities

23

HEAVYWEIGHTS

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<< CONCLUSION OF NEW AVEIRO TISSUE MILL

Successful book-building of new clients in Portugal, Spain, France and UK

24

RECAP

Total Capex:

€126

Converting line started in May

Start-up of reels production in September 2018 – currently in ramp-up phase

4 converting lines: two Domestics, Industrial and Napkins

Navigator becomes the 3rd largest producer in Iberia with production capacity of 130 kton reels and 120 kton converting

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MoU signed with the Government of Mozambique to study precedent conditions for phase 1 “Best endeavours” commitment to achieve project readiness by December 31st unreached Recording in 2018 accounts of impairment related to biological assets of € 6.7 million recorded + € 12 million provision

25

MOZAMBIQUE PROJECT- UPDATE 2018

P h a s e 1 : W o o d c h i p M i l l

Investment: USD 260 M

Start-up in 2023

40 000 ha planted area

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Outlook Market Main

Highlights Group

Performance

01 02 03 04

<<

26

Q4/FY 2018 RESULTS PRESENTATION

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Outlook for 2019

PULP PAPER

Stable outlook for UWF prices in 2019:

No foreseeable change in market conditions for pulp and paper in the near future and main concerns remain consequences of increasing trade tensions and impact on exchange rates

Prices should remain stable at a high level

Navigator implemented another price increase in European markets in January and announced another one in the US for March

Order book remains solid

2019 challenges: increase volumes available for sale; higher costs for energy and wood

TISSUE

Navigator successfully implemented a price increase announced for end 2018

OUTLOOK

27

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Ramp-up of integrated tissue mill will bring additional volumes

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AIMING TO BECOME A CARBON NEUTRAL COMPANY

After ATF (largest photovoltaic solar plant in an industrial setting in Portugal) NVG installed a new solar plant in Espirra

Installed capacity: (ATF + Espirra) 2.2 MW + 113kW

Solar Photovoltaic Panels: 8800 + 352

Electricity cost avoidance (Year):

264,000 € + 20,000€

CO2 avoidance (Year): (ATF)

1140 tons of cO2 avoided year

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FOCUSED ON BUILDING THE FUTURE BIO-ECONOMY

RAIZ & Inpactus project

Plantation trees Forestry residues

Biorefinery

Biomass deconstruction & separation processes

1 tonne wood Pulp

Fibers

Chemicals & energy recovery

(combustion) Pulping By-products

Biomass components

Paper

Tissue

Market pulp

Heat and electricity

Biochemicals Bioproducts Biomaterials

Examples of bioproducts from biorefinery

Essential oils

Sugars for bioethanol and bioplastics

Thermoplastic bio composites

Lignin-based foams for thermo insulation

Bacterial cellulose for biomedical applications

Nanocellulose for paper coating and food additives

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EUCALYPTUS ESSENTIAL OILS PROJECT

Expected conclusion: 2019 CAPEX: € 5 million

Eucalyptus’ leaves

Biorefinery

Oils extraction

Distribution and Sales

547 M€ Market

8.7% CAGR Forest

& Extraction Company

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Bacj

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31

FY 2018 RESULTS PRESENTATION

Annex

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QUARTERLY FIGURES – YOY EVOLUTION

427 385

432 435 439

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Turnover (M €)

104 111 115 115 115

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

EBITDA (M €)

62 53

66 52 53

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Net Earnings (M €)

25% 29% 27% 26% 26%

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

EBITDA/Sales (%)

15% 17% 18% 19%

13%

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

ROCE (%)

21% 18%

23% 18% 18%

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

ROE (%)

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This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A.. Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its subsidiaries’ undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisors or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussion in connection with this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person shall not have any liability whatsoever (including in case of omission, negligence or otherwise) for any losses, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith or with respect to their reliance upon the completeness and accuracy of any such information, as well as any damages resulting hereof.

DISCLAIMER

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