QualifiersQualifiers

or, how certain are you? or, how certain are you?

Who takes an umbrella to Who takes an umbrella to class if the weather class if the weather

forecaster says…forecaster says… It will It will probablyprobably

rain today.rain today.

There There mightmight be be rain today.rain today.

We doubt We doubt it will it will rain until tonight.rain until tonight.

Wouldn’t you prefer…Wouldn’t you prefer…

There is a 90% chance There is a 90% chance rain today.rain today.

There is a 20% chance There is a 20% chance rain today.rain today.

There is only a 10% chance of rain today, There is only a 10% chance of rain today, but as a cold front moves in after 5 p.m., but as a cold front moves in after 5 p.m., there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms this there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms this evening.evening.

What about …What about …

Consider, for example, you are an Consider, for example, you are an ambassador who reads a CIA report that says ambassador who reads a CIA report that says there is there is little chancelittle chance of a terrorist attack of a terrorist attack against the American Embassy in Cairo against the American Embassy in Cairo at at this timethis time. .

If you were the ambassador in Egypt, do you If you were the ambassador in Egypt, do you increase security, leave it where it is, or increase security, leave it where it is, or decrease it (divert resources to other decrease it (divert resources to other problems)? What if you try to plan a three problems)? What if you try to plan a three months ahead?months ahead?

What if you had odds?What if you had odds?

If the ambassador believes that there is no If the ambassador believes that there is no more than a more than a one-in-a-hundredone-in-a-hundred chance, chance, he/she may elect to not do very much. If the he/she may elect to not do very much. If the ambassador believes that there may be as ambassador believes that there may be as much as a much as a one-in-fourone-in-four chance of an attack, chance of an attack, he/she may decide to do quite a bit. The he/she may decide to do quite a bit. The term “little chance” is consistent with term “little chance” is consistent with either of those interpretations, and there is either of those interpretations, and there is no way to know what the report writer no way to know what the report writer meant.meant.

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html

From

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/fig18.gif

Sherman Kent’s ranking of certainty. The dots represent what “odds” a group of test subjects assigned to various stated certainties like “we doubt.” Notice that some dot groupings are well-defined, others more subject to interpretation.

““Amount” QualifiersAmount” Qualifiers

____________ student(s) believe(s) in the honor ____________ student(s) believe(s) in the honor system.system.

Few Most Nearly all SomeFew Most Nearly all Some The vast majority of Almost no About The vast majority of Almost no About

half of allhalf of all

Only a rare Many A slim majority of Only a rare Many A slim majority of Rank these qualifiers from most to leastRank these qualifiers from most to least

““Time/frequency” Time/frequency” QualifiersQualifiers

Students ___________ initiate an honor cases Students ___________ initiate an honor cases when they observe “serious” cheating.when they observe “serious” cheating.

Consistently Rarely Almost neverConsistently Rarely Almost never

Usually Often Sometimes Are Usually Often Sometimes Are likely to likely to

As often as not Always FrequentlyAs often as not Always Frequently

Qualifiers for the rest of Qualifiers for the rest of us:us:

Use qualifiers to indicate Use qualifiers to indicate certainty/amount/frequencycertainty/amount/frequency

Use qualifiers to convert Use qualifiers to convert generalizationsgeneralizations into more accurate claims.into more accurate claims.

UVA students believe the single sanction is UVA students believe the single sanction is unfair.unfair.

Many Many UVA students believe the single UVA students believe the single sanction is unfair.sanction is unfair.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_keyjudgements.html