quantifying central committee: approach and applications
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Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications. Victor Shih Department of Political Science, Northwestern University Wei Shan Department of Political Science, Duke University Mingxing Liu Peking University, Central Finance and Economic University. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Quantifying Central Quantifying Central Committee: Approach Committee: Approach
and Applicationsand ApplicationsVictor ShihVictor Shih
Department of Political Science, Northwestern Department of Political Science, Northwestern UniversityUniversityWei ShanWei Shan
Department of Political Science, Duke UniversityDepartment of Political Science, Duke UniversityMingxing LiuMingxing Liu
Peking University, Central Finance and Peking University, Central Finance and Economic UniversityEconomic University
Data: Central Committee (CC) DatabaseData: Central Committee (CC) Database The data quantify all the available The data quantify all the available
biographical information of CC and biographical information of CC and Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007
Each observation (row) represents one CC Each observation (row) represents one CC membermember
Columns keep track of all the basic Columns keep track of all the basic demographic variables: birth year, gender, demographic variables: birth year, gender, education level…etc.education level…etc.
Additional columns record positions held, Additional columns record positions held, start year, and end year (Adolph 2003)start year, and end year (Adolph 2003)
This creates a large database, but one can This creates a large database, but one can make logical statements to identify a make logical statements to identify a number of sub-populations among CC number of sub-populations among CC members.members.
A Look at the Original DataA Look at the Original DataMember, secretariat
Chair, Mass Organization
Member, CAC
Vice-secretary, CAC
Some Problems and SolutionsSome Problems and Solutions Coding ErrorsCoding Errors
– Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Database SeparatelyDatabase Separately
Pre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for PartyPre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for Party– Solution: develop a detailed picture of the Solution: develop a detailed picture of the
evolution of the Red Army and party before 1949 evolution of the Red Army and party before 1949 (on-going)(on-going)
Bureaucracies Shift Too muchBureaucracies Shift Too much– Solution: “Successor Principle” with some caveatsSolution: “Successor Principle” with some caveats
Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy (below ministerial level)(below ministerial level)– Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries, Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries,
provinces, MR, branches of PLAprovinces, MR, branches of PLA Overall, new information can easily be Overall, new information can easily be
incorporated by adding more columnsincorporated by adding more columns
Average Birth Year of CC MembersAverage Birth Year of CC Members18
8019
0019
2019
4019
60
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000year
birth year, 25th percentile birth year, 75th percentileMean birth year of CC members
Average Education Level of CC MembersAverage Education Level of CC Members0
.51
1.5
22.
5m
ean
leve
l of e
duca
tion
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000year
Factional Influence Indicators (with Factional Influence Indicators (with Shan and Liu)Shan and Liu)
We record the share of CC members We record the share of CC members with birth, education, or work ties with with birth, education, or work ties with a PSC member.a PSC member.
Sounds simple, but it requires highly Sounds simple, but it requires highly complex logical statements to derive complex logical statements to derive an annual indicator because we need an annual indicator because we need to:to:– Select people who are CC members in a Select people who are CC members in a
particular year ANDparticular year AND– Select those with birth and education ties Select those with birth and education ties
with the PSC member ORwith the PSC member OR– Those who have worked at a particular Those who have worked at a particular
danwei danwei at the same time thatat the same time that the PSC the PSC member worked theremember worked there
Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Guofeng versus Hu YaobangGuofeng versus Hu Yaobang
.1.1
5.2
.25
.3.3
5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990year
Share of HYB Supporters in CC Share of Hua Supporters in CC
Jiang versus Qiao versus HuJiang versus Qiao versus Hu.1
.15
.2.2
5.3
.35
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year
jiang_share qiaoshi_sharehujintao_share
Chairman Mao: A ReinterpretationChairman Mao: A Reinterpretation.4
.5.6
.7.8
Sha
re o
f CC
with
ties
with
PS
or C
hairm
an
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980year
Mao Formally Takes Over
7th Party Congress
8th Party Congress
9th Party Congress
10th Party Congress
Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Adolph and Liu)Adolph and Liu)
CCP Rewards Growth?CCP Rewards Growth?
Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?