quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

11
Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios May 2014 David A. Fleming

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Presentation by David Fleming to the Energy and transport futures workshops in Alice Springs, 13 and 15 May 2014. This is presentation 2 of 3. The others are: Foran T, Fleming D, Spandonide B, Williams R and Race D. 2014. Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities. Energy and transport futures workshops. 13 and 15 May. Alice Springs. http://www.slideshare.net/Ninti_One/remote-energy-futures-australia and Spandonide B, Foran T, Fleming D, Williams R and Race D. 2014. Transport and Energy Futures in Remote Australia: Exploration of key issues. Energy and transport futures workshops. 13 and 15 May. Alice Springs. http://www.slideshare.net/Ninti_One/spandonide-b-explorationkeytransportissuesremoteaustraliaetfworkshop15may2014

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Page 1: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

May 2014

David A. Fleming

Page 2: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

2

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Cities

(n=581)

Inner

Regional

(n=260)

Outer Region

(n=306)

Remote

(n=96)

Very Remote

[VR] (n=107)

Alice Springs

(n=5)

Difference:

Cities – VR

Household Median

Income (nominal dollars,

weekly)

1518.21 1107.06 1048.65 1083.67 1138.83 1524.80 379.38

Change 2001-2011 (%) 67.32 52.82 51.49 56.57 52.65 60.43 14.67

Notes: Parentheses show number of SLAs in the respective sample. Values reported are averages over the samples.

Page 4: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

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Figure A1. Components of household expenditure allocation

Housing

Energy

Assets, maintenance and others

Fuel for Vehicle

Dwelling energy

Ho

use

ho

ld In

com

e

Food

Page 5: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

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Green lines show natural gas pipelines across the country Red lines show the national electricity grids

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Rel

ativ

e p

etro

l pri

ces

(Dar

win

=1

acr

oss

tim

e)

N

om

inal

cen

ts p

er li

tre

of

un

lead

ed p

etro

l

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7

Cities

(n=581)

Inner Regional

(n=260)

Outer Region

(n=306)

Remote

(n=96)

Very Remote

[VR] (n=107)

Alice Springs

(n=5)

Difference:

Cities – VR

Household Median Income

(nominal dollars, weekly) 1518.21 1107.06 1048.65 1083.67 1138.83 1524.80 379.38

Change 2001-2011 (%) 67.32 52.82 51.49 56.57 52.65 60.43 14.67

Estimates from AAA (2013) Cities Inner Regional Outer Region Remote Very Remote Alice Springs Difference:

Cities – VR

2011 Average petrol price

(cents per litre) 140.66 142.43 144.47 144.37 152.72 161.58 -12.07

2001 Average petrol price

(cents per litre) 86.87 91.58 93.15 98.83 98.52 107.01 -11.65

Notes: Estimates from AAA data are obtained by averages of selected localities belonging to the respective ABS remoteness. categories.

Page 8: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

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Climate zone Avg cost, weekly

1 $38

2 $30

3 $37

4 $40

5 $36

6 $43

7 $47

Source: www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/4670.0~2012~Main%20Features~Climate%20zone~10007

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Outer Regional Remote Very Remote

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012

Supplied 6,656 5,420 5,064 4,991 4,955 4,475 6,703 6,459 5,732

Generated 462 630 1,057 817 931 1,681 474 1,065 1,832

Non-gener. households

6,174 5,570 5,367 5,262 4,856 4,652 6,139 6,005 5,739

Annual volume (kWh), median household consumption

Note: Households Energy Consumption Survey (HECS) data based on sample of SLAs

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• Based on the components of an average household budget expenditure (figure A1) and the discussed data sources, a spreadsheet modeling tool is provided to visualize how energy costs can affect household budgets under different scenarios

• Scenarios to be translated into differential energy costs across geographies

• Parameters to change in model: growth rates for income, electricity and fuel costs

• Outcomes: Share of energy expenditure for average household budgets over time and across space

Page 11: Quantitatively assessing the energy burden on household budgets: trends and scenarios

Thank you CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and Governance Research Group David A. Fleming Research Economist t +61 2 6246 4302 e [email protected]