quarterly market detail - q4 2014 single family … stats/2014/q4...q4 2012 31.9% 24.8% q2 2014...

Produced by Florida REALTORS® with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month.

Data released on Wednesday, February 11, 2015. Next quarterly data release is Monday, May 11, 2015.

Q3 2014 917 10.2%

7.7%

19.4%

Q2 2014 906

Q1 2014 640

10.6%

29.0%

14.5%

37.4%

27.6%

-10.6%

Q3 2012 645

Q2 2012 659

3.5%

7.9%

-4.3%

Economists' note : Closed Sales are one of the simplest—yet most

important—indicators for the residential real estate market. When

comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we

recommend using the year-over-year percent changes rather than the

absolute counts. Realtors® and their clients should also be wary of

quarter-to-quarter comparisons of Closed Sales because of potential

seasonal effects.

Q4 2013 690

Q3 2013 832

Q2 2013 841

Q1 2012 468

Q4 2011 454

Q1 2013 536

Q4 2012 624

$193,687 -0.4%

76 72 5.6%

532 23.3%

$170,000 $166,000 2.4%

1,013 1,001 1.2%

Q4 2013Percent Change

Year-over-Year

218 188 16.0%

824 690 19.4%

Summary Statistics

Closed Sales

Paid in Cash

$192,827

Q4 2014

656New Pending Sales

New Listings

Median Sale Price

Q4 2014

Average Sale Price

Median Days on Market

91.3%

149

Average Percent of Original List

Price Received

Pending Inventory

Inventory (Active Listings)

Quarter

1,823

Months Supply of Inventory 6.7

0.3%

130 14.6%

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

19.4%

1,879 -3.0%

Closed Sales

824

91.0%

7.8 -14.4%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Quarterly Market Detail - Q4 2014

Tallahassee MSA Single Family Homes

300

500

700

900

1,100

Clo

sed

Sal

es

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Closed Sales The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter



Q1 2012 27.1% 4.5%

Q4 2011 25.6% 21.3%

Q3 2012 24.7% 21.9%

Q2 2012 23.5% 5.7%

Economists' note : This statistic is simply another way of viewing

Cash Sales. The remaining percentages of Closed Sales (i.e. those not

paid fully in cash) each month involved some sort of financing, such as

mortgages, owner/seller financing, assumed loans, etc.

Q4 2013 27.2% -14.6%

Q3 2013 23.4% -4.9%

Q2 2013 24.5% 4.1%

Q1 2013 24.6% -9.2%

Q4 2012 31.9% 24.8%

Q2 2014 27.7% 13.1%

Q1 2014 30.2% 22.5%

Q4 2014 26.5% -2.9%

Q3 2014 27.5% 17.3%

Q4 2011 116 8.4%

QuarterPercent of Closed

Sales Paid in Cash

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Q2 2012 155 14.0%

Q1 2012 127 0.0%

Q4 2012 199 71.6%

Q3 2012 159 26.2%

Q1 2014 193 46.2%

Economists' note : Cash Sales can be a useful indicator of the extent to

which investors are participating in the market. Why? Investors are

far more likely to have the funds to purchase a home available up front,

whereas the typical homebuyer requires a mortgage or some other

form of financing. There are, of course, many possible exceptions, so

this statistic should be interpreted with care.

Q4 2013 188 -5.5%

Q3 2013 195 22.6%

Q2 2013 206 32.9%

Q1 2013 132 3.9%

Q3 2014 252 29.2%

Q2 2014 251 21.8%

Quarter Cash SalesPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 218 16.0%



5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Pct

. of

Clo

sed

Sa

les

Pai

d in

Cas

h

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Cas

h S

ale

s Quarterly Market Detail - Q4 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Cash Sales The number of Closed Sales during the quarter in which buyers exclusively paid in cash

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cash Sales as a Percentage of Closed Sales The percentage of Closed Sales during the quarter which were Cash Sales



Economists' note : Because of the typical length of time it takes for a

sale to close, economists consider Pending Sales to be a decent

indicator of potential future Closed Sales. It is important to bear in

mind, however, that not all Pending Sales will be closed successfully.

So, the effectiveness of Pending Sales as a future indicator of Closed

Sales is susceptible to changes in market conditions such as the

availability of financing for homebuyers and the inventory of

distressed properties for sale.

Economists' note : In a recovering market, we expect that new listings

will eventually rise as sellers raise their estimations of value. But this

increase will take place only after the market has turned up, so New

Listings are a lagging indicator of the health of the market. Also be

aware of properties which have been withdrawn from the market and

then relisted. These are not really New Listings.

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

Q4 2011

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q3 2014

Q2 2014

Q1 2014

Q4 2013 532

616

661

504

484

559

Percent Change

Year-over-YearNew Pending Sales

656

687

799

9.9%

-1.9%

-4.1%

-5.6%

12.3%

3.0%800

628

689

534

431

16.7%

2.4%

4.1%1,177

7.8%1,345

23.8%1,233

25.1%1,001

-0.3%1,248Q2 2012

1.3%996Q3 2012

-15.4%777Q4 2011

-9.5%1,131Q1 2012

14.2%1,344Q1 2014

15.3%1,551Q2 2014

Quarter

QuarterPercent Change

Year-over-YearNew Listings

6.9%1,318Q3 2014

1.2%1,013Q4 2014

5.3%

-15.7%

23.3%

11.5%

20.9%

10.9%



600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Ne

w L

isti

ngs

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Pe

nd

ing

Sale

s Quarterly Market Detail - Q4 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


New Pending Sales The number of property listings that went from "Active" to "Pending" status during the quarter

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New Listings The number of properties put onto the market during the quarter



Q1 2012 $191,570 7.5%

Q4 2011 $184,257 -2.1%

Q3 2012 $183,593 -5.0%

Q2 2012 $186,176 -5.1%

Economists' note : As noted above, we prefer Median Sale Price over

Average Sale Price as a summary statistic for home prices. However,

Average Sale Price does have its uses—particularly when it is analyzed

alongside the Median Sale Price. For one, the relative difference

between the two statistics can provide some insight into the market for

higher-end homes in an area.

Q4 2013 $193,687 0.7%

Q3 2013 $198,202 8.0%

Q2 2013 $200,274 7.6%

Q1 2013 $185,690 -3.1%

Q4 2012 $192,294 4.4%

Q2 2014 $189,595 -5.3%

Q1 2014 $183,234 -1.3%

Q3 2014 $201,949 1.9%

Q1 2012 $168,500 6.8%

Q4 2011 $157,000 -4.8%

Average Sale PricePercent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 $192,827 -0.4%

Quarter

Q3 2012 $162,850 -1.3%

Q2 2012 $160,000 -5.8%

Economists' note : Median Sale Price is our preferred summary

statistic for price activity because, unlike Average Sale Price, Median

Sale Price is not sensitive to high sale prices for small numbers of

homes that may not be characteristic of the market area.

Q4 2013 $166,000 0.6%

Q3 2013 $177,250 8.8%

Q2 2013 $164,950 3.1%

Q1 2013 $167,350 -0.7%

Q4 2012 $165,000 5.1%

Q2 2014 $165,000 0.0%

Q1 2014 $160,000 -4.4%

Q3 2014 $175,000 -1.3%

Median Sale PricePercent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 $170,000 2.4%

Quarter



$160K

$170K

$180K

$190K

$200K

$210K

Ave

rage

Sal

e

Pri

ce

$140K

$150K

$160K

$170K

$180K

$190K

Me

dia

n S

ale

Pri

ce


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Median Sale Price The median sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. 50% of sales were above and 50% of sales were below)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Average Sale Price The average sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. total sales in dollars divided by the number of sales)



Q1 2012 89.4% 2.2%

Q4 2011 87.6% -1.6%

Q3 2012 90.6% 1.6%

Q2 2012 90.2% 1.8%

Economists' note : The Average Percent of Original List Price Received

is an indicator of market conditions, in that in a recovering market, the

measure rises as buyers realize that the market may be moving away

from them and they need to match the selling price (or better it) in

order to get a contract on the house. This is usually the last measure to

indicate a market that has shifted from down to up, and is another

lagging indicator.

Q4 2013 91.0% 1.2%

Q3 2013 92.9% 2.5%

Q2 2013 92.8% 2.9%

Q1 2013 90.7% 1.5%

Q4 2012 89.9% 2.6%

Q2 2014 93.0% 0.2%

Q1 2014 91.8% 1.2%

Q3 2014 92.5% -0.4%

Q1 2012 115 -8.7%

Q4 2011 124 22.8%

Avg. Pct. of Orig. List

Price Received

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 91.3% 0.3%

Quarter

Q3 2012 95 1.1%

Q2 2012 84 -25.0%

Economists' note : Median Days on Market is the amount of time the

"middle" property selling thisquarter was on the market. That is, 50%

of homes selling this quarter took less time to sell, and 50% of homes

took more time to sell. We use the median rather than the average

because the median is not particularly sensitive to sales of homes that

took an unusually large amount of time to sell relative to the vast

majority of homes in the market.

Q4 2013 72 -25.0%

Q3 2013 57 -40.0%

Q2 2013 62 -26.2%

Q1 2013 96 -16.5%

Q4 2012 96 -22.6%

Q2 2014 62 0.0%

Q1 2014 77 -19.8%

Q3 2014 75 31.6%

Median Days on

Market

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 76 5.6%

Quarter



75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Avg

. Pct

. o

f O

rig.

Li

st P

rice

R

ece

ive

d

0

50

100

150

Me

dia

n D

ays

on

M

arke

t Quarterly Market Detail - Q4 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Median Days on Market The median number of days that properties sold during the quarter were on the market

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Average Percent of Original List Price Received The average of the sale price (as a percentage of the original list price) across all properties selling during the quarter



Q1 2012 12.1 -12.7%

Q4 2011 11.5 -16.9%

Q3 2012 10.9 -13.1%

Q2 2012 12.1 -18.2%

Economists' note : This is an indicator of the state of the market,

whether it is a buyers' market or a sellers' market. The benchmark for

a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 Months of

Inventory. Higher numbers indicate a buyers' market, lower numbers

a sellers' market.

Q4 2013 7.8 -15.0%

Q3 2013 8.6 -21.2%

Q2 2013 9.4 -22.7%

Q1 2013 9.5 -21.5%

Q4 2012 9.2 -20.3%

Q2 2014 8.6 -7.7%

Q1 2014 8.3 -12.8%

Q3 2014 7.9 -8.5%

Q1 2012 2,173 -17.0%

Q4 2011 2,084 -17.4%

Months SupplyPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 6.7 -14.4%

Quarter

Q3 2012 2,025 -13.3%

Q2 2012 2,226 -13.9%

Economists' note : There are a number of ways to calculate Inventory,

so these numbers may not match up to others you see in your market.

We calculate Inventory by counting the number of active listings on the

last day of the quarter, and hold this number to compare with the same

quarter the following year.

Q4 2013 1,879 2.8%

Q3 2013 2,031 0.3%

Q2 2013 2,065 -7.2%

Q1 2013 1,950 -10.3%

Q4 2012 1,827 -12.3%

Q2 2014 2,209 7.0%

Q1 2014 2,072 6.3%

Q3 2014 2,069 1.9%

InventoryPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Q4 2014 1,823 -3.0%

Quarter


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1,700

2,200

2,700

3,200

Inve

nto

ry


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Inventory (Active Listings) The number of property listings active at the end of the quarter

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

Mo

nth

s Su

pp

ly o

f In

ven

tory

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Months Supply of Inventory An estimate of the number of months it will take to deplete the current Inventory given recent sales rates



$100,000 - $149,999 156 23.8%

Sale Price Closed SalesPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 63 0.0%

$50,000 - $99,999 121 23.5%

$150,000 - $199,999 161 23.8%

$200,000 - $249,999 107 2.9%

$50,000 - $99,999 99 30.3%

$100,000 - $149,999

$400,000 - $599,999 39 30.0%

$600,000 - $999,999 12 33.3%

73 -8.8%

Economists' note : Closed Sales are one of the simplest—yet most

important—indicators for the residential real estate market. When

comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we

recommend using the year-over-year percent changes rather than the

absolute counts. Realtors® and their clients should also be wary of

quarter-to-quarter comparisons of Closed Sales because of potential

seasonal effects.

Sale PriceMedian Days on

Market

Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 91 16.7%

$1,000,000 or more 0 -100.0%

$250,000 - $299,999 96 68.4%

$300,000 - $399,999 69 -1.4%

Economists' note: Median Days on Market is the amount of time the

"middle" property selling this quarter was on the market. That is, 50%

of homes selling this quarter took less time to sell, and 50% of homes

took more time to sell. We use the median rather than the average

because the median is not particularly sensitive to sales of homes that

took an unusually large amount of time to sell relative to the vast

majority of homes in the market.

$150,000 - $199,999 74 7.2%

$200,000 - $249,999 78 13.0%

$250,000 - $299,999

$400,000 - $599,999 84 13.5%

62 -6.1%

$300,000 - $399,999 62 -12.7%

$600,000 - $999,999 53 39.5%

$1,000,000 or more (No Sales) N/A

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Less than $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$600,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 or more

Me

dia

n D

ays

on

Mar

ket

Q4 2013 Q4 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

Less than $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$600,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 or more

Clo

sed

Sal

es

Q4 2013 Q4 2014

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180



Closed Sales by Sale Price The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter

Median Days on Market by Sale Price The median number of days that properties sold during the quarter were on the market



Initial Listing Price New ListingsPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 67 3.1%

$50,000 - $99,999 142 0.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 176 1.7%

Economists' note: In a recovering market, we expect that new listings

will eventually rise as sellers raise their estimations of value. But this

increase will take place only after the market has turned up, so New

Listings are a lagging indicator of the health of the market. Also be

aware of properties which have been withdrawn from the market and

then relisted. These are not really New Listings.

$150,000 - $199,999 224 11.4%

$200,000 - $249,999 121 -13.6%

$250,000 - $299,999 97 -11.8%

$300,000 - $399,999 103 14.4%

$400,000 - $599,999 55 3.8%

$600,000 - $999,999 24 4.3%

$1,000,000 or more 4 0.0%

Current Listing Price InventoryPercent Change

Year-over-Year

Less than $50,000 108 -4.4%

$50,000 - $99,999 277 -15.0%

$100,000 - $149,999 311 -8.5%

Economists' note: There are a number of ways to calculate Inventory,

so these numbers may not match up to others you see in your market.

We calculate Inventory by counting the number of active listings on the

last day of the quarter, and hold this number to compare with the same

quarter the following year.

$150,000 - $199,999 358 8.8%

$200,000 - $249,999 195 -10.6%

$250,000 - $299,999 167 -4.6%

$300,000 - $399,999 185 4.5%

$400,000 - $599,999 135 12.5%

$600,000 - $999,999 68 23.6%

$1,000,000 or more 19 -26.9%

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Less than $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$600,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 or more

Inve

nto

ry

Q4 2013 Q4 2014

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

0

50

100

150

200

250

Less than $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $599,999

$600,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 or more

Ne

w L

isti

ngs

Q4 2013 Q4 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250



New Listings by Initial Listing Price The number of properties put onto the market during the quarter

Inventory by Current Listing Price The number of property listings active at the end of the quarter

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

Closed Sales

Median Sale Price

Q3

Q4



Q4 2014 Q4 2013Percent Change

Year-over-Year

Traditional

565 468 20.7%

$204,000 $205,000 -0.5%

Foreclosure/REO

228 175 30.3%

$87,600 $91,500 -4.3%

Short Sale

31 47 -34.0%

$164,600 $111,000 48.3%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Me

dia

n S

ale

Pri

ce

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Clo

sed

Sal

es

Traditional Foreclosure/REO Short Sale

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



Quarterly Distressed Market - Q4 2014


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

quarterly market detail - q4 2014 single family … stats/2014/q4...q4 2012 31.9% 24.8% q2 2014...

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