quarterly report 1: food mapping€¦ · quarterly report on rice, maize, millet, sorghum, &...

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Quarterly Report On

Rice, Maize, Millet, Sorghum, & Cassava

in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, & Nigeria

March 31, 2018 Public Version

Prepared by: Endsight Consulting On behalf of Palladium International Ltd.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

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Contents

Letter from WAFM Team Lead ................................................................................................ 1

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 2

Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 2 Food Security ......................................................................................................................... 2 Findings .................................................................................................................................. 3 Recommendations.................................................................................................................. 4

Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5

History of Drought in West Africa ............................................................................................ 5 Burkina Faso ............................................................................................................................ 6

Food Security Status .............................................................................................................. 6 Demand .................................................................................................................................. 6 Trade Flows............................................................................................................................ 7 Trade Policy ........................................................................................................................... 8

Ghana ....................................................................................................................................... 9

Food Security Status .............................................................................................................. 9 Demand .................................................................................................................................. 9 Trade Flows...........................................................................................................................10 Trade Policy ..........................................................................................................................11

Niger ........................................................................................................................................12

Food Security Status .............................................................................................................12 Demand .................................................................................................................................12 Trade Flows...........................................................................................................................13 Trade Policy ..........................................................................................................................14

Nigeria .....................................................................................................................................15

Food Security Status .............................................................................................................15 Demand .................................................................................................................................16 Trade Flows...........................................................................................................................17 Trade Policy ..........................................................................................................................18

Climatic Conditions ................................................................................................................19

Regional Coordination ............................................................................................................20

Market Barriers ......................................................................................................................20 Stakeholder Cooperation .......................................................................................................21

Recommendations ..................................................................................................................23

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Acronyms ANSAT Agence Nationale de le Securite Alimentaire Du Togo

CCA Cellule Crises Alimentaires

CET Common External Tariff

CFA Communauté Financière Africaine/African Financial Community

CH Cadre Harmonisé

CIGIAR Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research

CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for drought control in the Sahel

CMC Commission Mixte de Concertation Etat-Donateurs

CRC Commission Restreint de Concertation

DNPGCA Dispositif National de Prévention et Gestion des Crises Alimentaires

ECOWAS Economic Community of West Africa

ETLS Economic Trade Liberalisation Scheme

EU European Union

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FMARD Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

FSRD Food and Strategic Reserve Department

GBP British Pound

GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System

GIIF Global Index Insurance Facility

IBLI Index Based Livestock Insurance

ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

IDP internally displaced persons

IPC Integrate Food Security Phase Classification

IS Intervention Stock

KG Kilogram

MT Metric Ton

NAFCO National Food Buffer Stock Company

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Protection

NEDC North East Development Commission

OPAM Office des Produits Agricoles du Mali

OPVN Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger

PFJ Planting for Food and Jobs

RAAF Regional Agency for Agriculture and Food

SNS National Security Stock

SONAGESS Société nationale de gestion des stocks de sécurité

TCI Taxe Conjoncturelle à l’Importation

UEMOA Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine

UN United Nations

UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund

USAID US Agency for International Development

WAFM West Africa Food Markets Programme

WFP World Food Programme

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Exhibits

Exhibit 2: Projections for Target Crops in Target Countries During 2018 ..................................................... 3

Exhibit 3: Average Prices Reported by Vendors Who Sell Directly to Households ...................................... 3

Exhibit 4: Food Price Fluctuations & Agricultural Calendar .......................................................................... 4

Exhibit 5: Average Prices for Target Crops in Target Countries (GBP/kg) ................................................... 4

Exhibit 7: Consumptions Trends of Target Crops ......................................................................................... 6

Exhibit 8: Food Price Fluctuations in Burkina Faso ...................................................................................... 7

Exhibit 9: Prices in Burkina Faso (CFA/kg) ................................................................................................... 7

Exhibit 10: Burkina Faso Imports .................................................................................................................. 7

Exhibit 11: Burkina Faso Exports .................................................................................................................. 7

Exhibit 12: Burkina Faso Maize Export to Region ........................................................................................ 8

Exhibit 13: Consumption Trends of Target Crops in Ghana ......................................................................... 9

Exhibit 14: Food Prices Fluctuations in Ghana ............................................................................................. 9

Exhibit 15: Prices of Target Crops in Ghana (Cedi/kg) ............................................................................... 10

Exhibit 16: Ghana Imports........................................................................................................................... 10

Exhibit 17: Regional Sources of Ghana Imports ......................................................................................... 10

Exhibit 18: Ghana Maize Imports from Region ........................................................................................... 11

Exhibit 19: Ghana Exports .......................................................................................................................... 11

Exhibit 20: Consumption Trends of Target Crops in Niger ......................................................................... 12

Exhibit 21: Food Price Fluctuation in Niger ................................................................................................. 12

Exhibit 22: Prices of Target Crops in Niger (CFA/kg) ................................................................................. 13

Exhibit 23: Niger Imports ............................................................................................................................. 13

Exhibit 24: Niger Maize Imports from Region ............................................................................................. 13

Exhibit 25: Niger Exports ............................................................................................................................. 13

Exhibit 26: Boko Haram Attacks on Markets............................................................................................... 15

Exhibit 27: Consumption Trends Among Target Crops in Nigeria .............................................................. 16

Exhibit 28: Food Price Fluctuations in Nigeria ............................................................................................ 16

Exhibit 29: Prices in Northern Nigeria (Niara/kg) ........................................................................................ 17

Exhibit 30: Prices in Southern Nigeria (Niara/kg)........................................................................................ 17

Exhibit 31: Nigeria Imports 2007-2016 ........................................................................................................ 17

Exhibit 32: Nigeria Rice Imports from Region ............................................................................................. 18

Exhibit 33: Nigeria Exports 2007-2016 ....................................................................................................... 18

Exhibit 34: Percent Normal Rainfall December 23, 2017 to March 22, 2018 ............................................. 19

Exhibit 35: Monthly Rainfall 2018 ................................................................................................................ 19

Exhibit 36: Forecast of Monthly Rainfall Changes from March 2018 .......................................................... 20

Exhibit 37: Countries Implementing Bans on Cereal Exports 2008-2013 ................................................... 20

Exhibit 38: IPC classification ....................................................................................................................... 22

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1 Do not circulate or reproduce without permission from WAFM, the Palladium Group and DFID. All rights reserved

Letter from WAFM Team Lead

March 31, 2018

House No. G770/4, Botwe Dzorwulu Street, Accra, Ghana

Dear Colleagues,

The West Africa Food Markets (WAFM) Programme is pleased to disseminate the first of four quarterly reports of the implications of food security implications of Rice, Maize, Millet, Sorghum, and Cassava value chains along the Ghana-Burkina Faso and Nigeria-Niger corridors.

WAFM is funded by UKaid/ Department of International Development (DFID) to address food insecurity and enhance staple food trade. These quarterly reports complement WAFM’s two primary components, the Challenge Fund and the Policy Facility, by aggregating and disseminating data from and among key stakeholders in the region.

The objectives of this report are to:

• Deepen Cooperation among existing networks of private and inter-governmental actors;

• Generate an understanding of strategic food reserves;

• Set out national trade policies likely to be enforce in the event of acute food shortages;

• Identify market barriers and possible ways to avoid or mitigate negative impacts on trade; and

• Provide recommendations for quick wins and mini initiatives.

This first report lays the groundwork for further analysis in the reports to come, and readers are welcome to contact the Report Manager, Steven Grudda ([email protected]) with questions, feedback, or additions.

Thank you for your time.

Sincerely,

Noel Yao Kossonou

Policy Facility Manager

West Africa Food Markets Programme

mailto:[email protected]

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Executive Summary

Methodology

Beginning on December 19, 2017 and building on the Food Mapping Report conducted by Sahel Capital Partners and Advisory Ltd. in June 2017, Endsight Consulting used field interviews, email & phone surveys, and desk top research to compile this report. Surveys were conducted in markets in the following towns:

Burkina Faso: Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Pama Ghana: Accra, Techiman, Tamale Niger: Tilabery, Dosso, Birni-Konni Northern Nigeria: Kano, Gashua, Maiduguri Southern Nigeria: Lagos, Ogbomosho, Calabar

Food Security

Target countries generally enjoyed good weather conditions in 2017 which contributed to relatively strong crop production. Food security in Ghana is projected to remain in Cadre Harmonisé “CH” Phase 1 - Minimal throughout 2018. Most of Burkina Faso is CH Phase 1 – Minimal except for six provinces that are in CH Phase 2 - Stressed. Certain departments in Niger and states in Nigeria are affected by food insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency. Areas within the departments Diffa in Niger and the states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe in Nigeria are in CH Phase 3 – Crisis with at least two areas in northeastern Nigeria in CH Phase 4 – Emergency.

Exhibit 1: Food Security Status December 2017

Source: Cadre Harmonisé

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Findings

Exhibit 2: Projections for Target Crops in Target Countries During 2018

Source: Endsight Consulting analysis based on data from Ministries of Agriculture, FAO, and World Bank

Exhibit 3: Average Prices Reported by Vendors Who Sell Directly to Households

Source: Endsight Consulting field surveys

Rice Maize Millet Sorghum Cassava

Project Production for 2018 (MT)

Burkina Faso 362,027 1,649,010 953,310 1,575,720 72,000

Ghana 720,316 1,964,797 158,735 276,724 19,139,079

Niger 99,948 6,333 3,798,908 1,941,657 2,000

Nigeria 8,050,880 11,082,960 1,510,390 6,298,150 64,478,600

Projected Per Capita Consumption for 2018 (KG) Total

Burkina Faso 20 60 59 57 6 202

Ghana 32 27 6 8 170 243

Niger 12 3 140 47 7 209

Nigeria 28 30 26 34 113 231

Projected Population fro 2018

Burkina Faso 19,795,009

Ghana 29,613,709

Niger 22,307,085

Nigeria 196,134,517

Projected Demand for 2018 (MT)

Burkina Faso 395,900 1,187,701 1,167,906 1,128,316 118,770

Ghana 947,639 799,570 177,682 236,910 5,034,330

Niger 267,685 66,921 3,122,992 1,048,433 156,150

Nigeria 5,491,766 5,884,036 5,099,497 6,668,574 22,163,200

Projected Difference between Production & Demand for 2018 (MT)

Burkina Faso (33,873) 461,309 (214,596) 447,404 (46,770)

Ghana (227,323) 1,165,227 (18,947) 39,814 14,104,749

Niger (167,737) (60,588) 675,916 893,224 (154,150)

Nigeria 2,559,114 5,198,924 (3,589,107) (370,424) 42,315,400

Average Report Prices in GBP for Quarter 1 2018

Burkina Faso 0.38 0.20 0.31 0.26 0.22

Ghana 0.74 0.31 0.63 0.67 0.14

Niger 0.44 0.25 0.29 0.25 0.31

Northern Nigeria 0.60 0.20 0.24 0.22 0.27

Southern Nigeria 0.47 0.27 0.35 0.30 0.15

Expected Change in Price between March & April 2018

Burkina Faso 1.34% 4.27% 2.76% 5.71% 1.50%

Ghana -1.81% 5.21% 4.79% 1.61% 5.86%

Niger 1.96% 14.63% 10.77% 9.56% 1.00%

Northern Nigeria 4.82% 16.98% 10.11% 8.03% 6.04%

Southern Nigeria 11.80% 17.00% -8.54% 4.34% -1.28%

Rice Maize Millet Sorghum Cassava

Average Report Prices in GBP for Quarter 1 2018

Burkina Faso 0.38 0.20 0.31 0.26 0.22

Ghana 0.74 0.31 0.63 0.67 0.14

Niger 0.44 0.25 0.29 0.25 0.31

Northern Nigeria 0.60 0.20 0.24 0.22 0.27

Southern Nigeria 0.55 0.30 0.39 0.28 0.12

Expected Change in Price between March & April 2018

Burkina Faso 1.34% 4.27% 2.76% 5.71% 1.50%

Ghana -1.81% 5.21% 4.79% 1.61% 5.86%

Niger 1.96% 14.63% 10.77% 9.56% 1.00%

Northern Nigeria 4.82% 16.98% 10.11% 8.03% 6.04%

Southern Nigeria 7.94% 10.43% -3.89% 3.27% 1.38%

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Food prices generally remain relatively low during the first quarter and tend to rise swiftly during the second quarter as stocks of crops harvested at the end of the prior year begin to dwindle. The table below shows the relationship between the agricultural calendar and average yearly food price fluctuations for all target countries. The highest food prices are usually recorded during the lean season in July, August, and September, which are also referred to as the “Hungary Months”.

Exhibit 4: Food Price Fluctuations & Agricultural

Calendar

Source: Endsight Consulting analysis of FAO Data 2012-2017 (2010=100)

Prices for target crops are expected to increase an average of 7% from March to April 2018, prices for target crops in target countries are expected to increase 7% and quantity purchased by vendors selling to households is expected to decrease by 3%.

The largest average price increases are expected for Maize (10.1%) followed by Cassava (6.6%), Sorghum (6.2%), Rice (4.1%), and Millet (2.8%). Average quantity demanded is expected to decrease most for Maize (-4.4%) followed by Cassava (-2.9%), Sorghum (-2.7%), Rice (-1.8%), and Millet (-1.2%). Rice is by far the most expensive target crop, followed by Millet, Sorghum, and then

Maize. Cassava is the cheapest and most abundant. Exhibit 5: Average Prices for Target Crops in Target

Countries (GBP/kg)

Source: Endsight Consulting field surveys

Recommendations

The top three recommendations from this report are: 1. Expand the use of Mobile Phone Based Market Information Tools such as ESOKO and

M-FARM. 2. Establish a Pilot Project to Facilitate Off-Take Agreements with Food Aid Providers for

IDPs Returning to Secure Areas in Northeastern Nigeria. 3. Conduct a Feasibility Study on Index Based Food Aid Procurement and Distribution

under ECOWAS/RAAF.

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Hunary Months

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Maize

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MilletSorghum

Cassava

February March April forecast

Planting Tending Harvest

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Introduction

This is the first of four quarterly reports on the food security implications of Rice, Maize, Millet, Sorghum, and Cassava (“Target Crops”) value chains in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria (“Target Countries”). After presenting the historical context, the report proceeds to describe demand, trade flows, trade policies, and food reserve conditions for target crops in each target country. Then follow sections providing regional analysis of climatic conditions as well as comments on regional cooperation. The report concludes with recommendations for quick wins and mini-initiatives for stakeholders to consider.

History of Drought in West Africa

West Africa has experienced several wet and dry periods since the 8th century. Experts indicate that the 8th to 14th centuries constituted a wetter phase and the latter period gave way to dryer conditions.1 The 16th and 18th centuries are estimated to have been wetter periods for the Sahel, even more than in the 1900s. However, the Guinea Coast is thought to have experienced a period that was dryer than the 1900s.

Drought affected the Sahel every other decade during the mid to late 1700s. Records indicate famine conditions were present in modern day Senegal and Gambia as late as 1752 before rainfall improved again for another decade. Research shows that by 1768 rainfall was once again insufficient over much of the Sahel, and famines were registered in Timbuktu (1770-1771) and Trarza (1771-1775). Rainfall increased again during the 1780s. Water levels in Lake Chad were high, and parts of Niger even experienced flooding. Then, in the 1790s, climactic conditions changed and research indicates drought occurred in Kano, Nigeria (1793-1795) and food shortages in the Western Sahel.2

During the 1800s, rainfall on the Guinea Coast fluctuated a great deal more than in the Sahel region, yet the Sahel experienced many droughts throughout the 1800s while none were recorded in the Guinea Coast. One of the worst famines during this period occurred in Borno, Nigeria during the 1830s,3 and severe drought and famine conditions were also witnessed in Senegal.4

Rainfall increased significantly during the early 1900s, particularly in the Sahel. The region enjoyed high rainfall during the 1950s in particular, though the Guinea Coast had more annual variation in rainfall than did the Sahel. The most significant climatic shift during the 1900s was the start of dryer period in the 1960s that has persisted to this day. Beginning in 1968 the West African Sahel experienced severe droughts and famine that “ravaged the region in the 1970s and 1980s.”5

So far during the 2000s, rainfall has been variable in the region. While rainfall has occasionally reached or exceeded the average recorded from 1920-2000, rainfall in the region has generally remained below average the average for that period.6 Since 2007, there have been few studies on rainfall in the Sahel region, however there are indications that 2008 rainfall reached the long-term average for the region, with some evidence confirming this for broader West Africa as well. Normal rainfall was then recorded in 2009, followed by high rainfall in 2010, and then an abnormally dry year in 2011.7 The Sahel region experienced drought and food crisis in 2011-2012, which was the fourth incident of drought in less than 10 years.8

Looking ahead, climate change is a significant threat to the region. As noted by USAID, West Africa is “…one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change, as temperature increases are projected to be 1.5 times higher than in the rest of the world. Climate vulnerability is compounded by the region’s high dependence on rain-fed agriculture.” Additionally, climate change is linked with increased conflict, especially in the Sahel, further threatening food security in the region.9

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Burkina Faso

Agriculture comprises one third of Burkina Faso’s economy, though the country has rather variable rainfall, and a somewhat difficult climate with issues regarding land degradation, deforestation and desertification.

The most commonly produced cereals in Burkina Faso are maize, millet and sorghum, and the large majority of cereals produced are consumed in the country. Imports of rice have been increasing, but demand for rice remainsrelatively low, likely due to its higher price. This may change, however, as the greatest expected price increases in coming months are for other cereals.

Cereal production in Burkina Faso is currently “sufficient but limited”10 and trade levels remain low, but food insecurity in the country is minimal at this point. This may change in the second quarter of the year, however, because rainfall was lower than average in some areas in the north (see Climatic Conditions section) during the first quarter and an influx of refugees from Mali is increasing pressure on the food system. The government may also struggle to meet its food stock procurement target, however, overall, Burkina Faso is organized relatively well to respond to food insecurity.

Food Security Status

Food insecurity in Burkina Faso was minimal during the first quarter of 2018, but six provinces are expected to become stressed during the second quarter and two of those may reach crisis unless preventative actions are taken. Most provinces remain in CH Phase 1, in which the level of food insecurity is minimal, however, the situation is likely to deteriorate in the northeast. In addition to other contributing factors, insecurity in Mali caused 23,800 refugees to flee into Burkina Faso at the end of last year, causing additional pressure on food security in the country11.

A few provinces, including Soum, Oudalan, Sanmatenga, Namentenga, Passoré, and Boulkiemdé, may move to Integrate Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 2 as

early as March-May12,13, and without preventative action, some of these provinces, particularly Soum and Oudalan, may even move to CH Phase 3. Thus, most provinces are secure while a few are stressed and may transition to crisis. (See Food Security Status Map in Introduction)

Demand

Total demand for target crops in Burkina Faso during 2018 is projected to be 4 million MT, with average consumption of 202 kg/person.

Maize, millet, and sorghum are the most commonly produced and highly demanded crops in Burkina Faso. Virtually all the demand for these crops is supplied by domestic production, and about 90% of domestic production is consumed as food. Rice is growing in popularity among consumers and producers, however the country is still a net importer of rice. As shown in the pie chart below, demand for cassava is very low.

Exhibit 7: Consumptions Trends of Target Crops

Source: Endsight Consulting analysis based on FAO data 2009-2013

Food prices in Burkina Faso fluctuate similarly to the regional average displayed in the executive summary. Prices are lowest during the first quarter of the year and tend to increase about 7% the second quarter. Prices typically remain flat during quarter three before descending again in the middle of quarter four.

Cassava 3%

Rice10%

Sorghum28%

Millet29%

Maize30%

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Exhibit 8: Food Price Fluctuations in Burkina Faso

Source: Endsight Consulting analysis of FAO data 2012-2017 (2010=100)

Target crop prices are expected to increase next quarter as quantity starts decreasing and the government purchasing program begins. Findings from surveys with local vendors show rice is the most expensive, followed by millet and sorghum. Maize is the cheapest, being the only one exported in any meaningful volume. The price web below shows price increases for all crops.

Exhibit 9: Prices in Burkina Faso (CFA/kg)

Source: Endsight Consulting

The greatest expected increase is sorghum (5.7%) followed by maize (4.3%) and millet (2.8%), and rice (1.3%). Since rice is heavily imported, the commodity is less susceptible to the seasonal price changes affecting the other three. On average, prices of target crops are expected to rise 3.5% from March to April, indicating vendor expectations that prices for target crops will increase more quickly than average historical food prices because of their central role in diets.

Quantity is expected to decrease 4% from March to April as consumers respond to increasing prices. While some vendors purchase more when prices increase, believing they can increase margins, most vendors purchase less, expecting households will also purchase less.

Trade Flows

Burkina Faso has little formal trade recorded with Ghana, Niger, or Nigeria in the target crops. Among these countries, it imports from Ghana the most, but that amount has been less than 1% of total imports of cassava, maize, millet, sorghum, and rice.

Exhibit 10: Burkina Faso Imports

Source: Endsight Analysis of UN Comtrade data (kg millions)

Burkina Faso imports most of the country’s rice, maize, and cassava from Cote d’Ivoire, while Mali is the primary source of imported millet and sorghum. Rice is by far its largest import14, making up well over 90% of all imports of the commodities examined and amounting to an average of $92 million per year.

Exhibit 11: Burkina Faso Exports

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade data (kg millions)

The country’s largest export is maize, which has made up between 60-88% of its trade of target crops over the last 10 years. Among

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300Maize

Rice

Millet

Sorghum


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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BurkinaFaso:ImportsofRice,Maize,Millet,Sorghum&Cassava,2007-2016,(millionsofkg)

Grainsorghum Maize(corn) Manioc(cassava) Millet Rice

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target countries, Burkina Faso exports the most of these commodities to Niger.

Recent analysis shows that cereal trade remains low as production is “sufficient but limited”.15 Reports indicate there is currently an informal cereal export restriction in force at the border between Burkina Faso and Niger. Yet, markets in Niger were said to be satisfactorily supplied with maize and sorghum from Burkina Faso and other countries, indicating that trading is ongoing.

Exhibit 12: Burkina Faso Maize Export to Region


Formal trade statistics currently represent only a portion of trade in the region. A great deal of informal trade takes place across Africa and among target countries. For example, approximately 67% of the maize exported from Burkina was exported informally in 2015.16 Forecasts of 2018 trade flows in Burkina Faso in Annex 3 show that maize exports and rice imports are expected to increase while little change is expected for trade of other target crops.

Trade Policy

Burkina Faso is a member of ECOWAS and the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). Both are working to liberalize trade. ECOWAS uses the Economic Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS), and UEMOA provides members with preferential tariffs. Both agreements also have a Common External Tariff (CET), with the ECOWAS CET being largely based on that of UEMOA. The CET tariff bands are set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 35%, with the fifth tariff band meant to protect sensitive industries, and Burkina Faso

has implemented the CET. The average tariff for agricultural products (14.9%) is much higher than that of cereals (5%) because they are treated as strategic for food security, including locally produced crops like maize.17 However, Burkina Faso has at times removed tariffs altogether for strategic products during periods of food crisis.

UEMOA countries are also able to impose an “additional safeguard border tax,” the TCI (taxe conjoncturelle à l’Importation), of 10% when “the cost, insurance, and freight price of a product falls below a given trigger price reference.” The TCI can be implemented for a six-month period.18

As observed in the chart in the Market Barriers section to come, Burkina Faso is one of the few countries in West Africa that imposes seasonal restrictions on trade.19 These include blanket official restrictions (with no set time limit); seasonal official restrictions (with a time limit specified); and unofficial, but real restrictions (where traders are turned back from border). The latter is what sources indicate is in effect currently.

It is difficult to estimate the exact volume of trade turned away at the border due to such restrictions as formal and informal trade are likely to be affected differently, with informal trade being less impacted and formal trade experiencing large scale or total reductions. A 2013 study indicates that, “countries intervening to restrict their exports are not among the main causes of the insecurity of the poor in the developing world. Nevertheless, export restrictions proved to significantly contribute to exacerbating negative effects on food security when an unexpected, rapid increase of food staple prices occur and a food crisis develops.”20

Signals that restrictions may be put in place soon include announcements by the Ministry of Agriculture that rains have been insufficient in certain parts of the country or that certain crops have been destroyed or failed.

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BurkinaFaso,ExportsofMaizetoneighboringcountries,

2007-2016,(millionsofkg)

Benin Cameroon Coted'Ivoire Ghana Mali Niger Togo

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Ghana

Ghana is among the most food-secure countries in Africa, but still 6 million Ghanaians, 21 percent of the population, live in rural poverty21. Northern Ghana is historically an area of chronic poverty and malnutrition. More than 70 percent in the Upper West region live in rural areas compared to the national average of 49 percent. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood throughout the country, however the sector is more important in the North than in the South where services and industry are more prominent.

In 2017, the new administration implemented the “Planting for Food and Jobs” (PFJ) policy, which aims to increase agricultural production of five crops: maize, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and vegetables. The PFJ is focused on increasing food productivity and minimizing the cost of importing. The initiative provides farmers with subsidized agricultural inputs, fertilizer, and improved seeds; free extension services; market linkage opportunities; and e-agriculture, a technological-based system to monitor, track activities and progress of farmers through a database system22. In total, the five-year PFJ program is projected to produce an additional 540,000 tons of maize, 337,500 tons of rice, 64,800 tons of sorghum, and 36,000 tons of soybeans23 to support food security in Ghana.


Food insecurity in Ghana was CH Phase 1 minimal during the quarter and is expected to remain in this category throughout the year. Ghana enjoyed a good harvest and markets are adequately supplied across the country.

Demand

Projections for 2018 indicate total demand for target crops in Ghana to be 7.2 million MT and per capita consumption to be 243 kg.

Cassava is the most commonly consumed target crop in Ghana. Virtually all of demand is supplied by domestic production, however only 40-45% of domestic cassava production is

consumed. Use as animal feed is about 20-25% of local production, and losses are very high, ranging from 20-30%. Rice and maize are becoming increasingly important food sources in Ghana, and these crops are much more widely traded. Losses for both crops are unsustainably high (over 15%). Sorghum and millet are in low demand and are mostly consumed in the northern part of the country.

Exhibit 13: Consumption Trends of Target Crops in

Ghana


Food prices in Ghana fluctuate less than average when compared to other countries in the region. The lowest prices tend to occur in November and increase 8% from those to the highest prices in July.

Exhibit 14: Food Prices Fluctuations in Ghana


Target crop prices are all expected to increase next month, except for Rice, due to lower availability. Findings from surveys with

Cassava70%

Rice13%

Maize11%

Millet 3% Sorghum 3%

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local vendors show that prices for Sorghum and Millet are nearly as high as those of Rice, while Maize is significantly cheaper, and Cassava is by far the most affordable due to the crop’s abundance.

Exhibit 15: Prices of Target Crops in Ghana

(Cedi/kg)


Respondents expect prices to increase less in Ghana than in the other countries during the coming month. Cassava (5.9%) is expected to increase the most in April followed by Maize (5.2%) and Millet (4.8%). Sorghum (1.6%) is expected to increase slightly and Rice (-1.8%) to decrease slightly. On average, target crop prices are expected to increase 3.1% from March to April, with the brunt of this price increase affecting cassava, the most affordable and commonly consumed crop.

Quantity demanded by local vendors is expected to decrease by 1% on average. As the seasonal supplies of Rice, Millet, Sorghum, and especially Maize start to dwindle prices increase and quantity of consumption decreases. Cassava quantities, however, reduce less than the others due to more constant availability, so Cassava traders enjoy higher margins during this time of the year. Rice is the only crop expected to increase in consumption quantity as consumers take advantage of slightly lower prices.

Trade Flows

Ghana’s main cereal import is rice, which primarily comes from international rather than regional sources. The figures below demonstrate how much rice Ghana is importing compared to the other target crops, and the breakdown for bordering and regional countries further identifies what a small share of imports they make up, with significant declines in imports from the region beginning in 2011.

Exhibit 16: Ghana Imports

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade data (kg millions) No Data Available for 2014-2015

The average amount annually imported from countries outside the region stands at about 99%. Most of these imports come from countries in Asia. The Government of Ghana has also signaled an intent to reduce rice imports by 10% by the year 2020.

Exhibit 17: Regional Sources of Ghana Imports

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade, data (kg millions)

No Data Available for 2014-2015

Ghana’s imports of maize from the region increased during the quarter, however, the exact increase figure is unknown. This is particularly interesting because Ghana requires an export permit for maize, which would seem to signal unmet demand despite most maize produced staying inside the country.

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Benin BurkinaFaso Cameroon Coted'Ivoire Niger Nigeria Togo

Public Version


Togo, in particular, is responsible for the most recently witnessed spike in maize imports. The table below demonstrates how important Togo has become as a source of maize for Ghana.

Exhibit 18: Ghana Maize Imports from Region


No Data Available for 2014-2015

Ghana has very few exports in recent years of staple cereals to other countries in the region, or generally. Government policies described in the introduction of this section aim to increase production of staple agricultural goods, but available data does not indicate that this has translated to an increase in exports.

Exhibit 19: Ghana Exports

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade data (kg millions) No Data Available for 2014-2015

Trade Policy

Ghana, like all countries covered in this report, is a member of ECOWAS. ECOWAS has a tool in place to liberalize trade called the Economic Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS). It also has a common external tariff (CET), with ECOWAS’ CET largely based off UEMOA’s. The CET tariff bands are set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 35%, with the fifth tariff band meant to protect sensitive industries, and Ghana has implemented the CET.

For agricultural products, the average tariff is approximately 14.9%, but cereals, because they are strategic for food security, are subject to only a 5% duty, including locally produced crops like maize.24 Ghana currently requires

export permits for selling maize outside the country, which might also affect exports generally.

As noted above, the Government of Ghana is attempting to scale up local production of staple crops to reduce the need for imports. It has indicated plans to decrease imports of rice by 10% by the year 2020.

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Confidential – Department for International Development (DFID-UK)


Niger

Niger enjoyed a better than usual harvest in 2017, however food security has not necessarily improved. Niger’s cereal yields are among the lowest in the world, producing only 447 kilograms per hectare of arable land in 2014 while the world average was 3,633 and the average in Africa was 1,524.25 Certain populations remain vulnerable to food insecurity because they are not be able to access food, particularly those who are internally displaced and refugees from Mali and Nigeria. Three regions are most affected, Diffa, Tahoua, and Tillaberi. The Country Humanitarian Team has evaluated 1.4 million people face acute food insecurity and 1.7 million people require nutrition support. In Diffa region alone, 408,367 persons need food assistance and 100,855 persons require nutrition support26. Thus, the humanitarian crisis will worsen this year, and the number of persons requiring food assistance are already increased.


According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, as of December 2017, three departments in the Diffa region, N’Guigmi, Diffa, and Bosso, are Cadre Harmonisé (CH) Phase 3 - Crisis; and 12 provinces, three in Diffa region, eight in Tahoua, one in Dosso, and one Tillabéri, are CH Phase 2 - Stressed.

FEWSNET evaluation, which uses the IPC 2.0, showed a slightly different assessment in February 2018. Like Cadre Harmonisé, IPC names three provinces in the Diffa region, N’Guigmi, Bosso and Diffa, as IPC Phase 3 - Crisis, however more departments in IPC are “Stressed” than in Cadre Harmonisé. These departments are in Diffa, Zinder, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabéri, Dosso regions.

These differences may be because IPC assessment is more recent, however, as discussed in the Regional Coordination section, these two standards use slightly different criteria.

Demand

Total demand for target crops in Niger during 2018 is projected to be 4.7 million MT with per capita consumption of 209 kg.

Millet is the most in demand target crop in Niger, and virtually all of demand is supplied by domestic production. About 70% of production is consumed. Farmers use around 15% for animal feed and 3-5% for seed. Losses are rather high, ranging from 10-15%. Sorghum is also in strong demand. Losses and use as seed tend to be higher than millet, yet animal feed use is lower. Demand for rice, cassava, and maize is relatively low. The vast majority of rice and maize is imported.

Exhibit 20: Consumption Trends of Target Crops in

Niger


Food prices in Niger have the greatest fluctuation of all four countries. Prices dip lower in March and remain higher in December than the regional average. The spread between the lowest and highest prices tends to be 10% as compared to 7% and 8% in the other countries.

Exhibit 21: Food Price Fluctuation in Niger


Cassava 3%Rice 6%

Maize 1%

Millet67%

Sorghum23%

110

115

120

125

130


Public Version


Target crop prices are expected to increase due to decreasing availability. Findings from surveys with local vendors show that rice is by far the most expensive crop followed by millet, maize, and then sorghum. Niger imports over 20 times the rice it produces, accounting for the higher cost of this crop. The price web below shows prices increasing in each month.

Exhibit 22: Prices of Target Crops in Niger (CFA/kg)


Survey respondents expect prices to increase for all crops next month. Maize (14.4%) has the highest expect increase, due to harvest of the irrigated maize crop in April which commands a higher price. High increases are also expected for millet (10.8%) and sorghum (9.6%) as traders anticipate annual price patterns. Expectations for rice (2%) are rather low. On average, the expected price increase for the group is 9.2%, indicating expectations that prices for these staple food crops will increase more quickly than the annual trend for all food prices.

Quantity is expected to only decrease 4.1%, however, indicating low price elasticity. Consumers in Niger are less sensitive to prices changes than those observed in Burkina Faso and Ghana.

Trade Flows

According to official trade data, the majority of Niger’s imports are rice, though maize has

made up a distance second. Imports typically account for 10% of total domestic cereal requirements, and according to the WFP, are expected to increase by about 10% in 2018 compared to previous years.27

Exhibit 23: Niger Imports

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade,data (kg millions)

Agricultural markets in Niger were well supplied in February 2018 due to the “recovery of imports from Nigeria”, as well as an “influx of maize and sorghum from Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana.”28 According to official data and estimates, much of Niger’s imports from Nigeria in recent years have been millet and sorghum, with exports of maize from Nigeria declining, as seen below.

Exhibit 24: Niger Maize Imports from Region

Source: Endsight analysis of UN Comtrade,data (kg millions)

Exhibit 25: Niger Exports


As shown above, rice is the target crop that Niger exports most though quantities are small. Reports indicate that much more rice is being exported informally.

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Grainsorghum Maize(corn) Millet Rice

Public Version


Insecurity due to Boko Haram is disturbing formal and informal trade with Nigeria east of Kano.

Trade Policy

Niger is a member of ECOWAS and the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). Both are working to liberalize trade. ECOWAS is using the Economic Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS), and UEMOA uses a community preferential tariff. Both agreements also have common external tariff (CET), with ECOWAS’ CET being largely based on that of UEMOA’s. The CET tariff bands are set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 35%, with the fifth tariff band meant to protect sensitive industries, and Niger has implemented the CET.

For agricultural products, the average tariff is approximately 14.9%, but cereals, because they are strategic for food security, are subject to only a 5% duty, including locally produced crops like maize.29 However, in periods of food crisis countries have been known to remove the requirement for these tariffs. UEMOA countries are also able to impose an “additional safeguard border tax,” the TCI (taxe conjoncturelle à l’Importation), of 10% when “the cost, insurance, and freight price of a product falls below a given trigger price reference.” The TCI can be implemented for a six-month period.30

Currently, export restriction measures are in place at the border of Burkina Faso and Niger. Niger has received a significant amount of imports from Burkina Faso in the past several years, however this has tapered since 2015, likely due to the imposition of official and unofficial export bans in Burkina Faso.



Nigeria

Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy, and the leading importer of cereals in the region. The country is the world’s largest producer of cassava, one of Africa’s leading producers and consumers of rice, and one of the world’s largest importers of it as well.

Despite the country’s reliance on imports, the president has put in place a number of barriers for importing rice (e.g. in the form of currency conversion restrictions) with a goal of increasing local production. Sources indicate that this is actually just causing an increase in informal imports and smuggling of rice into the country, that is then being sold as locally produced rice. Estimates indicate that as much as 90% of the rice from Benin is being exported unofficially into Nigeria.31 The low numbers for official rice imports are further elaborated in the section that follows.

Conflict in the northeast part of the country is also causing problems in terms of food security. According to WFP, in 2017, Borno state had the most conflict related events since the Boko Haram crisis began. Food assistance is needed and insecurity is elevating.


Nigeria is not yet food-secure country; it still spends $3 to $5 billion annually on food imports, mainly rice, wheat, sugar and fish. The number of people who live below the poverty line represent 60 percent. Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast coupled with periodic floods and droughts have increased the vulnerability of the populations, particularly those who live in rural areas. The result of the evaluation of food security by a national team in October-December 2017 has resulted of 16 states affected by food and nutrition insecurity. Population in CH Phases 4 and 5 are in three states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe32.

The Nigerian humanitarian crisis is focused on Northeast of the country due to level of internally displaced persons in the region. The violence in the areas has left 7.7 million people in need of an emergency assistance.

Moreover, as of February 2018, the International Organization for Migration reported 1,782,490 internally displaced persons (IDPs), which was an increase of 4.5 percent compared to December 2017 registered data33. A larger number, 85 percent of IDPs, are form Borno, 7 percent form Adamawa and 5 percent from Yobe, which data are consistent with other studies.

The situation in the Northeast requires food assistance from donors and humanitarian organizations. In the three most affected states, Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, 34.3 percent of households are food insecure, which 4.7 percent are severally food insecure. FEWS NET has reported “the continuing Elevated Risk of Famine or IPC 5 in inaccessible areas of the Northeast.34”

“…markets have seen 38 direct attacks between November 2014 and December 2016 at a rate of one market attack every 18 days. Similarly, Boko Haram attacks are well timed to disrupt agricultural production with the peak period of attacks immediately preceding the lean season and then reaching a secondary peak just at the harvest’s conclusion; both seem almost designed to deter agricultural labour as well as the transport of agricultural goods to market.”35…

Exhibit 26: Boko Haram Attacks on Markets

Source: OECD



Roads Reopened in Northeastern Nigeria

The Nigerian military reopened several roads in Borno State this quarter, some of which had

been closed for over five years. Leadership of Operation Lafiya Dole opened routes from

Maiduguri to Baga (near lake Chad), Gomboru (Cameroon border via Dikwa), Banki (Cameroon

border via Bama), and Gwonza (via Bama). The map in Annex 8 shows the newly reopened

roads. Crucially, roads were reopened from Maiduguri to the border towns of Gomboru and

Banki enabling cross-border trade with Cameroon.36 37

Food aid delivery routes are best via Kano – Damaturu (WFP sub-office) – Maiduguri (WFP

office) and then on to the newly accessible towns. The stretch from Damaturu to Maidurugi is

somewhat hazardous, especially at night. Until construction on the Gombe – Biu stretch is

complete deliveries directly to towns in southern Borno State remain difficult. Access to the

north via Diffa is not advisable due to poor road network.

Demand

Projections for 2018 indicate total demand for target crops in Nigeria to be 45.3 million MT and per capita consumption to be 230 kg.

Cassava is the highest demand crop in Nigeria. As the global leader in Cassava production. This crop is the center piece of Nigerian diets.

Exhibit 27: Consumption Trends Among Target

Crops in Nigeria


Nigeria manages the Cassava crop more efficiently than does Ghana with losses typically just above 10%. About 40% of the crop is consumed, however, because nearly 50% is used as animal feed. Sorghum, Maize, Rice, and Millet split the remaining demand rather evenly. Excluding Rice, these crops are also important sources of animal feed with, for example, around 30% of the Maize crop going to animal feed.

Food prices in Nigeria rise more steadily during the first half of the year than the regional average before dropping off as harvesting begins. Prices tend to increase 8% between January and August.

Exhibit 28: Food Price Fluctuations in Nigeria


Target crop prices in Northern Nigeria are expected to increase an average of 9.2% in the coming month, which is similar to price expectations in Niger and more than double the increases expected in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Southern Nigeria. The largest

Cassava49%

Rice12%

Maize13%

Millet11%

Sorghum15%

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Public Version


expected price increase is for Maize (17%) followed by Millet (10.1%), Sorghum (8%), Cassava (6%), and finally Rice (4.8%). As shown below, Rice prices are consistently higher than those of other crops in Northern Nigeria. Exhibit 29: Prices in Northern Nigeria (Niara/kg)


Quantity in Northern Nigeria is expected to decrease only 4.1%, however, indicating low price elasticity. Quantity demand is expected to decrease most for Maize (-7.4%) as the prices spike in the coming quarter. The next largest decrease in quantity demanded is expected to be millet (-4.4%) followed by sorghum (-3.5%), cassava (-2.6%), and then rice (-2.1%).

Target crop prices in Southern Nigeria are expected to increase by an average of 3.8%. The largest increases are expected for maize (10.4%) followed by rice (7.9%), sorghum (3.3%), and then cassava (1.4%). Prices for millet are expected to decrease by 3.9%.

Quantity in Southern Nigeria is expected to drop only slightly (-0.9%). Markets in this area are less susceptible to seasonal fluctuations because they have access to vast quantities of cassava as well as abundant rice and maize, both domestically produced and imported.

Exhibit 30: Prices in Southern Nigeria (Niara/kg)


Trade Flows

Nigeria is the main food importer in the region, and the largest importer of rice in Africa. Much of the imports of rice are thought to flow through the porous borders of the country.38 One can see from the official trade data below that there must either be unregistered trade data from 2016, or a great deal of informal rice imports in 2016 to account for the exceptionally low numbers.

Exhibit 31: Nigeria Imports 2007-2016

Source: Ensight Analysis of UN Comtrade data (kg millions) No Data Available for 2015.

The large majority of Nigeria’s rice imports come from countries outside the region (mostly in Asia). One can see from the figures above and below that less than 1% of Nigeria’s imports of rice are from the region.

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Exhibit 32: Nigeria Rice Imports from Region


No Data Available for 2015.

Regarding official exports, there is a downward trend in Nigeria’s exports of cereals. Official trade data does not capture any exports in 2016 of the cereals examined in this report, and no trade data is available for 2015. However, outside analysis from WFP, indicates that exports from Nigeria have “recovered,” which signals there is more happening that is not officially recorded.

Additionally, Nigeria is estimated to be one of the larger exporters of maize in the region, with large flows annually to Niger. These are also not registered in the official data yet. Nigeria also exports more processed foods to other countries in the region, signaling the more sophisticated structure of its economy.

Conflict in the northeast part of the country is causing disruptions and likely also affect trade within the region.

Exhibit 33: Nigeria Exports 2007-2016


No Data Available for 2015.

Trade Policy

Nigeria, like all countries covered in this report, is a member of ECOWAS. ECOWAS has a tool in place to liberalize trade called the Economic Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS). It also has a common external tariff (CET) (with

ECOWAS’ CET largely based off UEMOA’s). The CET tariff bands are set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 35%, with the fifth tariff band meant to protect sensitive industries, and Nigeria has implemented the CET. For agricultural products, the average tariff is approximately 14.9%, but cereals, because they are strategic for food security, are subject to only a 5% duty, including locally produced crops like maize.39

Nigeria also occasionally implements blanket official restrictions on imports. Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria has banned importers from being able to access foreign exchange markets in over 40 different categories of imports, including rice. Such restrictions can have very negative effects on trade in the region.

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Climatic Conditions Rainfall was better than average this quarter. Exhibit 36 shows total rainfall during the quarter as compared to normal rainfall.

Normal rainfall was recorded in central Ghana and central Nigeria during the quarter, which is good for Cassava production.

Above average rainfall was recorded across southern Burkina Faso with areas around the town of Gaoua receiving 400% normal rainfall levels. Parts of northwest Ghana, southwest Niger, and northwest Nigeria also recorded higher than average rainfall. Rainfall in the Niger River Delta was above average. Areas in eastern Niger around the town of N’Gourti received 400-600% normal rainfall, most of which came in January.

Below average rainfall was recorded in northern Burkina Faso, where regions northeast of the capital Ouagadougou received 25-50% less than normal. The desert regions of northern Niger were also abnormally low. Pockets of low rainfall around the town of Gusau in northwestern Nigeria as well around the town of Gombe in northeaster Nigeria were also abnormally low.

Exhibit 34: Percent Normal Rainfall December 23,

2017 to March 22, 2018

Source: NOAA

Monthly analysis in Exhibit 37 below shows that the quarter started with virtually no rain in January before making up the deficit with extra rainfall in February. In all three months, there was little to no rainfall in northeastern Nigeria and southeaster Niger around Lake Chad region.

Exhibit 35: Monthly Rainfall 2018

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) U.S. Department of Commerce

Monthly Rainfall 2018

January February March



Forecasted monthly rainfall for the second quarter of 2018 shown in Exhibit 38 below indicates a normal approach to rainy season. The forecasts are average results from seven different forecasting techniques from different sources including National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The pictures show anomalies in millimeters compared to rainfall

levels in March. Rainfall in April is expected to be similar to March. In May, Burkina Faso and northern Ghana as well as central Nigeria and the Lake Chad region are expected to receive about half a millimeter more than they did in March. Rainfall increases are more widespread in June, especially across central Nigeria and central Burkina Faso, as the rainy season approaches.

Exhibit 36: Forecast of Monthly Rainfall Changes from March 2018

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) U.S. Department of Commerce

Rainfall requirements for target crops vary. According to the FAO Irrigation Water Training Manual #3, both millet and sorghum optimally require 450-650 mm water/growing period, and maize requires 500-800 mm water/growing period before factoring in heat and humidity and other climactic conditions. Due to higher temperatures, conditions in the Sahel require the higher ends of these ranges. Cassava can produce with as little as 400 mm water per year, but ideal yields occur when the crop receives 1700 mm/year. Rice has the highest water requirements at 1400 to 1800 mm a year, which is why rice farming in this region is usually unsustainable without irrigation.

Regional Coordination

Several market barriers hinder trade and stakeholders can improve performance by deepening cooperation.

Market Barriers

Physical barriers to trade include roadblocks, bribes, and long wait times for border procedures, but one of the greatest barriers to trade in target countries is lack of enforcement of trade policy, especially by border officials. Unofficial and official export bans also can cause many problems for trade in the region. The figure below demonstrates the presence of such barriers.

Exhibit 37: Countries Implementing Bans on Cereal

Exports 2008-2013

Burkina Faso Ghana Niger Nigeria

Blanket official restriction

(no set limit) X X

Seasonal official restrictions

(time limit specified) X

Unofficial but real (traders

turned back from borders) X

Source: Food Across Borders Conference, Accra, 2013

April May June

Public Version


Language differences also have a significant effect on trade, though in some cases they are a barrier and in other cases they help facilitate trade. For instance, both Burkina Faso and Niger are members of Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) for francophone West Africa (8 countries) while Ghana and Nigeria are not. As noted by Torres (2016), collaboration between Francophone and Anglophone countries in the region is structural barrier to trade. Additionally, intra-regional trade is higher among francophone countries with each having another francophone West African country in their top 5 partners. This, however, is not the case for English speaking countries in the region.

Oligopolies dominate the rice trade.40 One study found that in the West African markets examined, the top five or six rice importers were responsible for 81 - 95% percent of imports. These importers have degree of influence over pricing and intentionally drive down competition to protect their market share in the rice market.

Exogenous barriers like terrorism are also major barriers, with groups like Boko Haram presenting a very serious problem for food security, travel, trade and market activity in the region. In fact, a recent OED report specifically points to a correlation between the frequency of Boko Haram events and decreased market activities (Annex 7).41 Other exogenous barriers also affect trade, including exchange rates, fuel prices and disease outbreaks (e.g. ebola).

Currency differences also create a disincentive for traders to switch from informal to formal trade because exchange rates are usually more profitable in informal trade channels. If managed well, implementation of the ECO, a single currency for the region can eliminate this barrier. Presidents from the region committed to establishing a regional currency by 2020 during the Fifth Meeting of the Presidential Task Force on the ECOWAS Single Currency Programme on February 21, 2018 in Ghana.

In addition to these barriers to trade, the lack of formal data on trade flows and the very high rates of informal trade present a barrier to coordinating, tracking, and monitoring trade flows in the region. A recent report on this topic indicates that, “intraregional trade of food staples in ECOWAS is believed to be highly informal and undocumented, and therefore already playing a much more important socio-economic role than revealed by official statistics.”42 According to the World Bank, up to 66-80% of intraregional trade in staple foods is informal and not accounted for in official statistics.43

Stakeholder Cooperation The four WAFM countries are members of multiple regional organizations, such as ECOWAS, UEMOA, CILSS, and others. Two critical components of stakeholder cooperation in the region are food security assessment and food reserve management. Food security status assessment is currently coordinated satisfactorily, though improvements can and should be made. Food reserve management requires improved coordination.

Food Security Status Assessment is highly technical in nature and requires a common standardized methodology to ensure harmonized analysis that delivers comparable and reliable information to decision makers. Currently, three organizations lead assessment in the region:

1. FAO/Global Information and Early Warning System (FAO/GIEWS),

2. FEWSNET, and 3. the Permanent Interstate Committee

for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).

Each organization has its own evaluation methods, but the most known well-known framework is the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which is a standardized tool for food security analysis and decision-making44. As shown in Exhibit 38 below, IPC uses five color-coded phases to classify the severity of food insecurity.



Exhibit 38: IPC classification

IPC uses both area and household based classification. The key criterion for area classification is that “20 percent of the population must be in that phase or worse based on the household group classification.45”

FAO/GIEWS uses IPC to assess food security status of all countries of the world and provides technical support to countries at the request of their government. In addition to reports and alert bulletins, it has developed web-based tools to facilitate access and analysis of data.

FEWS NET uses an IPC compliant classification for 34 target countries, including Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria but not Ghana. It also periodically publishes early warning bulletins.

CILSS uses the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) which integrates certain elements of IPC version 1.0 but not completely compliant with IPC. Discussions on integrating IPC 2.0 are ongoing. CILSS is a regional organization established in 1973 following the Sahel ‘s drought crisis in 1970s. It has 13 state members including Burkina Faso and Niger. CILSS plays a major coordination role in the evaluation of food security status in the region. Implementation of CH is supported by ECOWAS, UEMOA, and certain international NGOs. In addition to these regional

organizations, FEWS NET, FAO, WFP, EU, USAID, UNCEF, IPC/Global Support Unit, Joint Research Center/EU support the Cadre Harmonisé. Furthermore, CILSS and the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC/OECD Secretariat) jointly coordinate the Food Crisis Prevention Network or RPCA (Réseau de Prévention de la Crise Alimentaires au Sahel et en Afrique de l’Ouest), which is an international network for cooperation and coordination under the political leadership of ECOWAS and UEMOA.

To increase cooperation among stakeholders CILSS should work closely with FEWS NET to integrate IPS 2.0 in Food Security Assessment methodology used by CH.

Food reserve management is much less coordinated than food security assessment. Responses to food insecurity are usually carried out by partnerships between national governments and international organizations such as WFP, UNICEF, USAID, FAO, and others. National rather than regional level coordination with donors limits response effectiveness, especially when food crisis cross borders.

A regional food reserve management effort is underway and merits further support from all stakeholders. ECOWAS established a regional food reserve in 2013, which is currently co-

Public Version


funded by ECOWAS and the EU and implemented by the Regional Agency for Agriculture and Food (RAAF)46. The food reserve has two components: a physical stock (1/3) and a financial stock (2/3). RAAF secured agreements with national food security companies—SONAGESS in Burkina Faso, NAFCO in Ghana, OPVN in Niger, FRSD in Nigeria, OPAM in Mali, CSA in Senegal, and ANSAT in Togo. Reserves are stored in Ghana , Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria47.

In August 2017, Nigeria received 1,130 tons of cereals, maize, sorghum and millet from the regional food reserve for the states of Borno, Gombe and Adamawa. Nigeria was also to receive an additional 780 tons of rice in the first

quarter of 2018. As a December 2017, the Regional Food Reserve has 11,178 tons of cereals in stock (millet, sorghum, maize and rice).

The European Union is the only international financial partner, allocating 56 million Euros, which represent half of the 60,000 tons initially planned for the first four years, and procedures for procurement and distribution remain somewhat tenuous as country’s balance domestic needs with regional commitments. Increasing funding and improving procurement and distribution practices are imperative to improving stakeholder coordination on food reserve management.

Recommendations

1. Feasibility Study on Index Based Food Aid Procurement and Distribution under ECOWAS/RAAF. Building on lessons learned from Index Insurance pilot projects in West Africa funded by the World Bank, WAFM conducts a feasibility study on using Indexed metrics to guide procurement and distribution of RAAF food reserves. RAAF should not only help country members develop policy but also monitor actions to prevent food crisis in collaboration with donors and international partners.

2. Pilot Project to Facilitate Off-Take Agreements with Food Aid Providers for IDPs Returning to Secure Areas in Northeastern Nigeria. Coordinate agreements under the North East Development Commission (NEDC) and work with Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre to cauterize support for the initiative in the IDP Policy as stakeholders update the 2012 version. Engage funding partners to off-set procurement costs for Food Aid providers sourcing from returned IDPs. For example, World Bank’s Multi-Sectoral Crisis Recovery Project for North Eastern Nigeria plans to provide $200 million.

3. Expand use of Mobile Phone Bases Market Information Tools such as ESOKO and M-FARM. Equip leaders of farmer, trade, and marketing associations in target countries working with target crops with iPads and train them to load and use data on mobile market information platforms.

4. Nigeria: Facilitate partnerships with large traders in the North (Babban Gona) with significant outreach to smallholders in order to diversify beyond maize to other crops critical to food security.

Public Version

Annex I: Regional Trade Routes – Burkina Faso & Ghana

Source: Sahel Capital Partners & Advisory 2017

Public Version

Annex II: Regional Trade Routes – Niger & Nigeria

Source: Sahel Capital Partners & Advisory 2017

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Annex 3: Burkina Faso Formal Trade Forecasts

Source: Endsight Analysis of UN Comtrade,data (Forecast data begins in 2017)


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40

60

80

100

120

140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

sEstimated Exports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018

(millions of kg)

Grain sorghum Maize (corn) Manioc (cassava) Millet Rice

524

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s

Burkina Faso: Estimated Imports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018 (millions of kg)


Public Version

Annex 4: Ghana Formal Trade Forecast



0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

sForecast of Exports for Ghana, 2007-2018

(millions of kg)


-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s

Ghana: Estimated Imports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018 (millions of kg)


Public Version

Annex 5: Niger Formal Trade Forecast



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

sNiger: Estimated Exports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018

(millions of kg)

Grain sorghum Maize (corn) Millet Rice

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s

Niger: Estimated Imports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018(millions of kg)

Grain sorghum Maize (corn) Manioc (cassava)

Millet Rice

Public Version

Annex 6: Nigeria Formal Trade Forecast



0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s

Nigeria: Estimated Exports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018(millions of kg)


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

s

Nigeria: Estimated Imports of Staple Cereals, 2007-2018, (millions of kg)


Public Version

Annex 7: Impact of Boko Haram Attacks of Market Activity

Public Version

Annex 8: Roads Reopened in Northeastern Nigeria

Public Version

Sources

1 According to Norrgård, who indicates that “There is only a limited amount of information for this period, but the caravan trade across the El Djouf desert seems to have flourished, which would have been impossible in drier conditions. A study of Lake Bosumtwi (Talbot & Delibrias, 1977) indicated that wetter conditions also prevailed on the Guinea Coast until at least the 13th century; however, a trend towards more arid conditions then commenced, especially in the Sahel.” 2 Stefan Norrgård, “Changes in Precipitation Over West Africa During Recent Centuries,” April 2017, Climate Science. 3 Weiss, H. (2014). Migrations during Times of Drought and Famine in Early Colonial Northern Nigeria. Studia Orientalia Electronica, 95, 1-30. 4 Philip D. Curtin, Economic Change in Precolonial Africa: Senegambia in the Era of the Slave Trade, 2 vols. University of Wisconsin Press (1975). 5 Sharon E. Nicholson, “The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability,” October 2012. ISRN Meteorology, Volume 2013 6 Data on rainfall over the centuries is summarized from Stefan Norrgård, “Changes in Precipitation Over West Africa During Recent Centuries,” April 2017, Climate Science. 7 Sharon E. Nicholson, “The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability,” October 2012. ISRN Meteorology, Volume 2013. 8 Reliefweb, Sahel Crisis 2011-2017. Available online: https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ot-2011-000205-ner 9 Burke, Marshall B., Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John A. Dykema, and David B. Lobell. 2009. “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.”

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (46): 10670-20674. 10 WFP Regional Bureau Dakar Markets Update for West and Central Africa, March 2018. 11 http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/burkina-faso.html 12 Résultats prévisonnels de la campagne Agricole et de la situation alimentaire et nutritionnelle 20172018. Novembre 2017. Ministère de l’Agriculture et des Aménagements Hydrauliques. Burkina Faso 13 USAID Food Assistance Fact Sheet Burkina Faso. February 2018 14 Measured by value in USD. 15 West and Central Africa WFP Regional Bureau Dakar Markets Update: March 2018 16 Sahel Capital, Food Mapping Study. June 2017. 17 Jean-Christophe Maur and Ben Shepherd, Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West AfricaA Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries .World Bank Group, 2015. 18 Ibid 19 Trade Hub and African Partners Network, “Seasonal Ban On Cereal Exports In West Africa,” January 2015. 20 Anania, G. (2013). Agricultural export restrictions and the WTO: What options do policy-makers have for promoting food security?. ICTSD. Draft paper. July (http://ictsd. org/i/library/173466/) 21 Francis Mulangu. November 30, 2017. Enhancing food and nutrition security in a newly middle-income country: Ghana’s unique challenge. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/11/30/enhancing-food-and-nutrition-security-in-a-newly-middle-income-country-ghanas-unique-challenge/ 22 Ministry of Food and Agriculture. Planting for Food and Jobs: FAQs. Retrieved from http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=15114 23 Ministry of Food and Agriculture. Evaluation of Expost 2016-2017 and Provisional 2017-2018 Cereal and Food Balances. Presentation in 27-29 November 2017. Bamako, Mali 24 Jean-Christophe Maur and Ben Shepherd, Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West AfricaA Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries .World Bank Group, 2015. 25 Endsight analysis of World Gouvernance Indicators 26 Communauté Humanitaire de Niger. 2018 Niger : Aperçu de Besoins Humanitaires. Novembre 2017. Retrieved from https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/ner_hno_2018_final_lowres.pdf 27 West and Central Africa WFP Regional Bureau Dakar Markets Update: March 2018 28 West and Central Africa WFP Regional Bureau Dakar Markets Update: March 2018 29 Jean-Christophe Maur and Ben Shepherd, Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West AfricaA Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries .World Bank Group, 2015. 30 Ibid 31 Paul Wallace and Ruth Olurunbi, “Smugglers Thrive as Nigeria Tries to Keep Foreign Rice Away,” Bloomberg. March 22, 2018. 32 CILSS, FAO & FMARD. Cadre Harmonisé for Identification of Risk Areas and Vulnerable Population in Sixteen States and Federal captal Territory (FCT) of Nigeria. 33 IOM. Displacement Tracking Matrix. Round XXI Report – February 2018. Nigeria. 34 FEWS NET. Nigeria Food Security Alert. March 2, 2018 35 Van Den Hoek, J. (2017), "Agricultural market activity and Boko Haram attacks in northeastern Nigeria", West African Papers, No. 9, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/13ba9f2e-en 36 Vanguard. Boko Haram: Army reopens Maiduguri-Bama-Banki int’l highway. March 24, 2018 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/03/boko-haram-army-reopens-maiduguri-bama-banki-intl-highway/ 37 Daily Post. Boko Haram: Army set to reopen major roads in Borno. February 22, 2018 http://dailypost.ng/2018/02/22/boko-haram-army-set-reopen-major-roads-borno/ 38 JOINT CILSS/FEWS/NET/FAO/WFP/JRC/EU 2017/2018 PRE-HARVEST ASSESSMENT MISSION IN NIGERIA 39 Jean-Christophe Maur and Ben Shepherd, Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West AfricaA Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries .World Bank Group, 2015. 40 World Bank. 2015. Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West Africa - a Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries. Washington: World Bank. 41 OECD and Sahel and West Africa Club, “Agricultural Market Activity and Boko Haram Attacks in Northeastern Nigeria,” West African Papers, September 2017. No. 09. 42 Carmen Torres and Jeske van Seters, “Overview of trade and barriers to trade in West Africa: Insights in political economy dynamics, with particular focus on agricultural and food trade,” July 2016. 43 World Bank. 2015. Connecting Food Staples and Input Markets in West Africa - a Regional Trade Agenda for ECOWAS Countries. Washington: World Bank. 44 http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-about/tr/ 45 IPC. Technical Manual Version 2.0. FAO Rome. 2012 46 ECOWAS http://araa.ecowas-agriculture.org/project/regional-food-security-reserve 47 Newsletter Regional Food Security Reserve, ECOWAS. Bulletin no 1, December 2017

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