questioning assumptions about transport trends · 2012-03-21 · questioning assumptions about...

QUESTIONING

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT

TRANSPORT TRENDS

TRANSPORT ECONOMICS

FORUM, 20 MARCH 2012

Chris Loader, ChartingTransport.com

http://chartingtransport.com/

Agenda

Are traffic volumes increasing?

Will traffic volumes increase in the future?

Are road congestion costs going to double?

Is Melbourne’s road congestion getting worse?

Are petrol prices driving a shift to public transport?

Are freeways and public transport in competition?

Is public transport mode share increasing?

Are car greenhouse emissions still increasing?

Is car ownership increasing?

Is traffic increasing on our roads?

BITRE report released

15 March 2012

Is traffic increasing on our roads?

Source: BITRE Report 127, table A3

35

40

45

50

55

60

Mar

-90

Mar

-91

Mar

-92

Mar

-93

Mar

-94

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

bill

ion

s

Vehicle kilometres travelled per quarter -Australia

Is traffic increasing on Melbourne

roads?

Source: BITRE Report 127, table A4

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

Mar

-90

Mar

-91

Mar

-92

Mar

-93

Mar

-94

Mar

-95

Mar

-96

Mar

-97

Mar

-98

Mar

-99

Mar

-00

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

bill

ion

s

Vehicle kilometres travelled per quarter -Melbourne

VicRoads data shows much the

same trend

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

trav

el v

olu

me

inde

x (1

993

-94

= 10

0)

Melbourne road traffic volumes

Source: VicRoads Traffic Systems Performance Monitoring Bulletins

Australian per person vehicle travel

peaked in September 2003

Source: BITRE Report 127 September 2003 was also the peak for the eight capitals

BITRE’s regression model fit

Source: BITRE Report 127

BITRE accounting for the GFC


BITRE assumptions about the

future

Unemployment declines slightly to 2015

Petrol prices constant in real terms

‘GFC effect’ over by 2020

Forecast for Melbourne traffic


What if petrol prices rise to $2/litre

by 2020?

Source: BITRE Report 127, figure 4.1

Australian Traffic per person

Growth still forecast with high fuel

prices

Source: BITRE Report 127, figure 4.2

Australian aggregate traffic

Different futures..

What if..

Petrol prices rose,

Unemployment stayed ‘high’, and

The ‘GFC effect’ on the savings rate continued?

Unfortunately BITRE didn’t test a combined

scenario.

Are such trends likely to be independent?

Car use peaked in 2004

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Estimated car passenger kms per capita - Australian cities

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Canberra

Source: BITRE 2011 statistics yearbook

Melbourne traffic – the monitored

network


Melbourne traffic growth in more

detail


80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Gro

twh

in t

rave

l in

dex

(19

93

-94

= 1

00)

Change in Melbourne traffic volumes

inner - freeways

inner - divided

inner - undivided

inner - undivided with trams

outer - freeways

outer - divided

outer - undivided

ChartingTransport.wordpress.com

Traffic growth off the freeways

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Gro

twh

in t

rave

l in

dex

(19

93

-94

= 1

00)

Change in Melbourne traffic volumes (ex freeways)

inner - dividedinner - undividedinner - undivided with tramsouter - dividedouter - undivided

ChartingTransport.wordpress.comSource: VicRoads Traffic Systems Performance Monitoring Bulletins

Is it just Melbourne where traffic

growth has stalled?

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

19

89

-90

19

90

-91

19

91

-92

19

92

-93

19

93

-94

19

94

-95

19

95

-96

19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-00

20

00

-01

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

Growth in vehicle kms since 1989-90

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth


Traffic trends on toll roads

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Rolling year on year average daily traffic growth, Australian toll roads

Eastlink (Melbourne)

Citylink (Melbourne)

Hills M2

M1 Eastern Distributor

Westlink M7

M5 (south western)

M4 (western)

Gateway Br (Brisbane)

Logan/Gateway Ext (Brisbane)

Sources: TransUrban, ConnectEast, Brisbane Motorways

So are congestion costs going to

double 2005 to 2020?

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

bill

ion

km

s

Australian major cities: estimate of total annual vehicle kms

BITRE WP71 forecasts

BITRE Report 127 estimated actuals

Sources: BITRE Working Papers 71 and 127

Definition of avoidable social costs

of congestion

Source: BITRE Working Paper 71

0

5

10

15

20

25

80 100 120 140 160 180

Av

oid

ab

le s

oci

al c

ost

of

con

ge

stio

n ($

b)

Australian large cities vkms

Forecast social costs of congestion by vkms

What congestion costs have been

avoided by reduced traffic growth?

2010-11 forecast

2010-11

estimated actual

Sources: BITRE Working Papers 71 and 127

What assumptions didn’t

eventuate?

Projected no change in urban PT mode share

Forecast increases in per person travel

Ongoing strong economic growth

Less population growth than occurred

Assumptions that didn’t eventuate

(2)


What is happening to congestion in

Melbourne?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

km/h

Melbourne AM Peak average travel speed

outer - freeways

inner - freeways

outer - undivided

outer - divided

inner - divided

inner - undivided

inner - undivided with trams

What is happening to congestion in

Melbourne? (2)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Variability of Travel Time - all monitored roads, Melbourne

AM peak

PM peak

off peak

all day

Data source: VicRoads Traffic System Performance Monitoring bulletinsSource: VicRoads Traffic Systems Performance Monitoring Bulletins

What about public transport?

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Estimated mass transit passenger kms per capita

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Canberra

Source: BITRE 2011 statistics yearbook (note: includes private bus travel)

Public transport patronage more

recently..

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

Re

lati

ve to

20

01

-02

pat

ron

age

Public transport patronage growth since 2001-02

South East Qld PerthMelbourne AdelaideGreater Sydney CanberraHobart AucklandWellington Christchurch

SEQ Perth

Melbourne

Auckland

Sources: state agencies

How does public transport growth

compare to road traffic growth?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

gro

wth

sin

ce 1

99

5-9

6

Growth trends in Melbourne transport

Public transport patronage

Road traffic volumes

Sources: patronage estimates, BITRE Working paper 127

Are rising petrol prices driving the

mode shift to public transport?

300

350

400

450

500

90 100 110 120 130 140

Pu

blic

Tra

nsp

ort

Pat

ron

age

(mill

ion

s)

Melbourne financial year average unleaded fuel price

(in June 2009 cents per litre)

Melbourne Public Transport Patronage and real unleaded fuel prices, 1998/99 - 2010/11

Sources: ABS, patronage estimates

Or is it CBD employment?

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

130 150 170 190 210 230

Pu

blic

Tra

nsp

ort

Pat

ron

age

-M

elb

ou

rne

(mill

ion

s)

Melbourne CBD employment Thousands

Melbourne Public Transport Patronage and CBD employment 1991/92 - 2007/08

Sources: City of Melbourne CLUE, patronage estimates

Or city activity in general..

Sources: City of Melbourne, patronage estimates

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

680 700 720 740 760 780 800

Pu

blic

Tra

nsp

ort

Pat

ron

age

(mill

ion

s)

Estimated weekday population in the City of Melbourne (thousands)

Melbourne Public Transport Patronage 2003/04 - 2009/10and City of Melbourne estimated weekday daytime

population 2004-2010

2006

..more recent CBD data on

occupied floor space

Sources: Property Council of Australia Office Market Report data, patronage estimates

R² = 0.9921

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8pu

bli

c tr

ansp

ort

pat

ron

age

(mil

lio

ns)

Melbourne CBD occupied office floor space (m2) Millions

Melbourne public transport patronage and Melbourne

CBD occupied office floor space 1996-2011

NB: Occupied office space grew by

1.3% in calendar 2011

Is there a relationship between radial

freeway traffic and train patronage?

Sources: TransUrban, patronage estimates

Public transport mode share in

Australian cities

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Estimated mass transit share of passenger kms

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Canberra


And in Melbourne more recently..

9.6% 9.6%10.1%

10.5%

13.3%

12.4%

10.7% 10.7% 10.6%11.0% 11.3%

12.2% 12.5%

11.6%

14.1%

13.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1997-

98

1998-

99

1999-

00

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

2005-

06

2006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

Melbourne public transport mode share of weekday motorised trips

SurveyEstimateLower boundUpper bound

Data sources: Vic DOTSource: Department of Transport (Vic)

Are transport emissions growing?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mt

CO

2-e

Australian annual transport greenhouse gas emissions

Source: Department of Climate Change

Breakdown of transport emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Mt

CO

2-e

Australian transport emissions

Domestic aviation

Domestic marine

Railways

Motorcycles

Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses

Light Commercial Vehicles

Cars

Source: Department of Climate Change AGEIS

Trends in road emissions per

capita

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Ton

nes

CO

2e

Road Transport Emissions per capita

NSW

Vic

Qld

WA

SA

Tas

ACT

NT

Source: AGEIS to 2009

Are our cars getting more greenhouse

friendly?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

g C

O2

e/k

m

Estimated car emissions per km, Australia

Sources: Department of Climate Change AGEIS, BITRE 2011 yearbook

Is it efficiency or less car use

reducing emissions?

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.25

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Australian car emissions per capita

no efficiency improvement post 2004

reported

Is car ownership increasing?

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Passenger cars per 100 population

NSW

Victoria

Queensland

South Aust

West Aust

Tasmania

NT

ACT

Australia

Sources: ABS Motor Vehicle Census, population data

More on transport patterns and

trends...

ChartingTransport.com

http://chartingtransport.com/

questioning assumptions about transport trends · 2012-03-21 · questioning assumptions about...

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