quo vadis, internet? - cisco · quo vadis, internet? sp1 josef ungerman, ccie #6167 ... •...

Cisco Public© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1Cisco Expo

Cisco Expo

2012

Quo vadis, Internet?SP1

Josef Ungerman, CCIE #6167

© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 2

• What users do with the network?

VNI – trends in traffic growth and profiles

• Infrastructure Optimization

IP NGN Architecture, Simplification, 100GE

• Monetization

OTT, Videoscape

• IPv6 Transition

IPv4 Exhaust, CGN, dual-stack, 6/6/12 – W6L

• Mobility and LTE

Role of IP, Video, IPv6, Unified MPLS Transport


Global Usage Trends

The Cisco VNI Global Forecast methodology is built on independent analyst projections; fixed/mobile usage reports and verified with real network data.

Global, regional, and country-level data modeling

of consumer/business usage trends.

Global Forecast Data

6th

Anniversary

http://www.cisco.com/go/vni

email: [email protected]


63 EBper mo

20 EBper mo

81 EB

per mo

50 EB

per mo

38 EB

per mo28 EB

per mo

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


North America

22.3 EB/Month by 2015

26% CAGR, 3X Growth

Western Europe


32% CAGR, 4X Growth

Central/Eastern Europe


39% CAGR, 5X Growth

Latin America


48% CAGR, 7X Growth

Middle East & Africa


52% CAGR, 8X Growth

Asia Pacific


35% CAGR, 4X Growth

Japan


27% CAGR, 3X Growth



North America

288 million

Western Europe

314 million

Central/Eastern Europe

201 million up from 111M in 2010

(cca 45% is Russia)

Latin America

260 million

Middle East & Africa

495 million

Asia Pacific

1.33 billion

Japan

116 million



0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Pe

tab

yte

s/

Mo

nth

Business

Consumer 13%

87%

19%

81%(CEE 70%)


32% CAGR 2010–2015


0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Peta

byte

s/

Mo

nth

VoIP

Online Gaming

Web/Data

File Sharing

Internet Video

Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.79% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2015

15%

24%

61%

(CEE: 47%)


34% CAGR 2010–2015

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 10

Traffic

Revenue

MonetizationNew revenue streams

OptimizationEfficient delivery

Profitability


Profitability = ƒCapEx + OpEx

Revenue

Making revenue beyond

basic services

Increased service

scale

Improve customer

satisfaction

Manage the bandwidth

explosion from video

Simplify network

architecture

Maximize return from

infrastructure

= Monetization

= Optimization

Reduce operational

complexity

Increase traffic efficiency

Reduce environmental

requirements/impact


Internal Factors


• Services Monetization

External Factors

• IPv6 Transition

• Mobility and 4G


ACCESS AGGREGATION BACKBONE

SDH/ATM

Mobile

SDH

FR/ATM

Metro Ethernet

PDH MW SDH

FMC/

Packet

Core

ATM

IP/MPLS Internet

Gateway

PDH

CPE

DSLAM

MSAN

CPE

IGW

BRAS

CPE

Regional

DWDM

Backbone

DWDM

SGSN

GGSN

IGW

INTERNET

100’s 10’s 1’s

2G

3G

Data

Centers

1000’s


ANYACCESS

AGGREGATION

CarrierE AGGREGATIONIP/MPLS

BACKBONEIP/MPLS

Internet

Gateway

PDH MW

2G

3G

CPE

DSLAM

IGW

CGv6

BRAS

DWDM

INTERNET

CORE

Ethernet

MPLS-TP

IP/MPLS

…

FTTH

LTE, WiFI…

EDGE

IP NGN

• single multiservice IP/MPLS network

• operational hierarchy

• Circuits (Pseudowires) and Clouds (IP)

100’s 10’s1000’s 1’s

Data

Centers


ANYACCESS

AGGREGATION

CarrierE AGGREGATIONIP/MPLS

BACKBONEIP/MPLS

Internet

Gateway

2G

3G

CPE

DSLAM

IGW

CGv6

BRAS

DWDM

INTERNET

CORE

FTTH

LTE, WiFI…

EDGE

IP NGN

• single multiservice IP/MPLS network

• operational hierarchy

• Circuits (Pseudowires) and Clouds (IP)

100’s 10’s 1’s

Data

Centers

PGW

CarrierE ACCESSMPLS

ABR

1000’s


Moore law on cost of routing

7,757,49 7,65

2,77

2,69

2,74

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

4/S 8/S 16/S

Wa

tts

CRS Form Factor

Power @ 40G/slot

Power @ 140G/slot

Total Power

W/Gbps @ 40G/slot

W/Gbps @ 140G/slot

Reduced Power per Bit

$

per

Gig

1997 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010

93%

E.g. Core

Routing

Packet

Transport

Reduced Price per Bit


Investing in the Future

130nm

40G

SC

1.2Tb

9+X MC

11.5Tb

65nm

140G

SC

4.48Tb

9+X MC

40.3Tb

40nm

400G

SC

12.8Tb

9+X MC

115.2Tb

B2B

8.96Tb

B2B

25.6Tb

2004 2010 2013

• Custom Silicon development major innovator

(20,000 engineers – Cisco puts 13% revenue, almost 6B$ annually to R&D)

• Single-flow 100GE introduced in 2010 – unmatched until today!

Core Routing marketshare grew 60% 65% from 2010 to 2012!


Open environment enables full

range of solutions

Third-Party Services/ Content

NationalData Center/Cloud/VHO

RegionalData

Center/VSOEPC/Edge

Aggregation

Inter Data-Center IP Core

SP Services/Content

CRS-312x capacity of nearest competitor

Access-Agnostic

ASR 9000Highest capacity edge router on

the market

ASR 5000Unmatched capacity and speed

in mobile packet core

Cisco Nexus

and UCSBreakthrough speed, agility

for virtualized data centers

A unified IP NGN that delivers video, mobile, and cloud

http://www.vonage.com/lp/US/searchmsn/


Capex Percentage, per bit

DWDM Optics

DWDM Commons

TDM & Packet Switching & Routing

10G 40G 100G

TDM + Packet

Switching &

Routing

DWDM

Commons

DWDM

Optics


Integration on IP/MPLS and Optical Layers

Agile DWDM, Control Plane, UNI-C

100G Coherent technology

G-MPLS UNI-C interface

SRLG sharing, signalling

IPoDWDM Transponders

Black link standardisation

IETF SNMP MIB work

Optical OAM visibility

• This is a journey: technological + organisational

• Better cost structure: PoP space, power consumption

• Higher Availability

• Improved Provisioning times

IP layer

Fast Convergence technology


Home

• Dual Homing

• High Availability

• Single-Chassis-like look&feel

and Management of cluster

Members

• Stateful Failover between

chassis

• Active/active LAG user facing

Aggregation

(MPLS)

• Dual Homing

• High Availability

• Huge 1GE Fan-out

• Single-Chassis-like look&feel

and Management of Cluster

Members and Satellite

• Satellites appear like ASR

9000 Linecards

• Simplified topology, No

Spannig tree or other L2

redundancy protocols needed

ClusterASR 9000

Distributiion

FTTX

GPON

MSAN

VDSL

Home

MSAN

VDSL Cluster & Satellite

Core

BNG

BNG

ASR 9000

BNG

Virtual Cluster

BNG

BNG

ASR 9000

BNG

Virtual ClusternxGE

Satellite

Aggregation

(MPLS)

ASR 9000

Distributiion

Core

ASR9000 nV


Drivers of Collaboration

• Access to OTT Services and Applications drives penetration of Consumer Broadband

• Guaranteed Delivery of Rich Media Services like Video & TV (ex. CDN, QoS…)

• Targetted Advertising

Drivers of Competition

• OTT CommunicationsProviders like Skype, GoogleTalk… represent Service Substitution and Pricing threats to Traditional Voice & Msg.

• OTT Content Providers & Aggregators like BBC, Apple & Hulu are looking for opportunities to use The Internet as a means to disintermediate video distribution businesses.

• IXP based connectivity

Source: IBSG analysis *OTT: Over-The-Top


Business to Business to Consumer (B2B2C)

ServiceProviders

ContentBroadcasters

Advertisers

ContentAggregators

ApplicationProviders

E-Tailers

Increase service velocity

Accelerate monetization

Provide a differentiated user experience

Business Benefits

MONETIZE


CG

v6

Carr

ier

Gra

de

IP

v6

Cloud

Network

Client

SP Content

Third-Party Content



RegionalData

Center/VSO

RegionalData

Center/VSO

IP Core CRS-1 & 3

EPC/EdgeASR 5K/9K

IP RAN

Business

SP Wi-Fi

• Intelligent offload

•Personalized services

AIR

•Adaptive Intelligence

•Network offload

Mobile

Videoscape

•Mobile video

optimization

•Enhanced user

experience


RIR Pool

IANA Pool

Feb 3, 2011

*

Feb 6, 2012


• Mar 23, 2011:$11.25 per IPv4

• http://blog.internetgovernance.org/blog/_archives/2011/3/23/4778509.html

• Need for SIDR (Secure Inter-Domain Routing)

• Distributed database and RPKI infrastructure for verifying PREFIX origin AS with RIR

http://blog.internetgovernance.org/blog/_archives/2011/3/23/4778509.html




Internet v6 Content

YouTube goes IPv6

DE-CIX IPv6: 30x increase

Google is 1/10th of

Internet (think W6L)

Netflix Video surpasses

p2p in US (29.7%)

NIX.CZ – World IPv6 Day (June 8, 2011)

NIC.CZ – cca 70.000 domains with AAAA


PDNGWServingGatewayeNB

IPv4Public

Internet

public IPv4 public IPv4

Public IPv4 deployment


NAT44

PGWeNB

IPv4 IPv4

private IPv4 private IPv4

Internet

public IPv4

CGN/CGv6

SGW

NAT

Private IPv4 deployment

IPv4 address sharing – using CGN (Carrier Grade NAT overload)

100Gbps throughput, 100M sessions…

Massive logging requirements to comply with data retention laws

Internet moves from L3 to L4

Resiliency, performance huge additional cost

Courtesy of Jason Fesler, ,Yahoo


NAT44

PGWeNB

IPv4 IPv4

private IPv4 private IPv4

Internet

public IPv4

CGN/CGv6

SGW

NAT

How to bypass the expensive CGN?

IPv6 !

either dual-stack or v6-only

public IPv6


SSID: CiscoExpov6• Vyzkoušejte přístup do Internetu pomocí IPv6

• Na vlastní kůži si ověříte technologii NAT64, DNS64.

• Vaše data „potečou“ přes 100Gb/s Ethernet a přes nejmodernější CGNsystém

• Potřebujete opravdu IPv4 pro přístup do Internetu?

• Zajímá Vás víc? Navštivte stánek CISCO, kde vše uvidíte a opravdu uslyšíte.

• Jediné co musíte udělat je zapnout podporu IPv6 ve Vašem operačním systému.

• Jsme IPv6 ready!

• www.whatismyip.com

• www.whatismyipv6.com6.6. 2012


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

er

of

Devic

es (

B)

22M

127M

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

42% CAGR 2011–2016


• What was it?

A single day (24 hrs) where major content providers advertised a AAAA DNS record for their production service (e.g. www.cisco.com, www.facebook.com); coordinated by the Internet Society

• Who participated?

Google, Facebook, Yahoo!, Akamai , Cisco , Limelight Networks were among 434 participants that offered content from their main websites over IPv6 for a 24-hour "test drive“. Cross-industry community effort: http://www.worldipv6day.org/participants/index.html

• Why do this?

Demonstrates commercial viability of IPv6

Helps identify areas of improvement in IPv6 functionality

• What happened? Nothing!

Only isolated issues reported (Y!: 2.2m v6 users served, 10 support calls)

>3% of v6 traffic is v6-enabled countries like France

http://www.cisco.com/

http://www.facebook.com/

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/world-ipv6-day-firing-up-engines-on-new.html

http://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-engineering/world-ipv6-day-solving-the-ip-address-chicken-and-egg-challenge/484445583919

http://www.yahoo.com/

http://www.akamai.com/ipv6

http://www.limelightnetworks.com/

http://www.worldipv6day.org/participants/index.html


• What is it?

www.worldipv6launch.org ; coordinated by the Internet Society

• W6L: Turn it on, leave it on.

Since 6/6/12, IPv6 becomes part of a regular business!

• Who will turn on IPv6 AAAA forever?

Google, Facebook, Yahoo!, Akamai , Microsoft…

CPE vendors – Cisco, D-Link

• Practical support: http://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/

• V6 World Congress, Feb 2012

Motto links to W6L: Open The Floodgates

http://www.worldipv6launch.org

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/world-ipv6-day-firing-up-engines-on-new.html

http://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-engineering/world-ipv6-day-solving-the-ip-address-chicken-and-egg-challenge/484445583919

http://www.yahoo.com/

http://www.akamai.com/ipv6

http://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ex

ab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Middle East and Africa (MEA)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Latin America (LATAM)

North America (NA)

Western Europe (WE)

Asia Pacific (APAC)

* Includes Japan

*

22.56%

40.01%

18.18%

6.54%

5.88%

6.83%


78% CAGR 2011–2016


0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Mobile VoIP (0.2%)

Mobile Gaming (.8%)

Mobile File Sharing (7.4%)

Mobile M2M (3.4%)

Mobile Web/Data (24.5%)

Mobile Video (63.8%)


(Figures in

legend refer

to traffic

share in

2016.)

83% CAGR 2011–2016


0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exa

byte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Home Gateways (7.7%)

Non-Smartphones (12.6%)

Tablets (10.7%)

Other Portable Devices (2.0%)

Laptops and Netbooks (22.8%)

Smartphones (40.6%)

M2M (3.5%)


(Figures in

legend refer

to traffic

share in

2016.)

83% CAGR 2011–2016


TDM transport of packets is no longer economically viable, lacks statistical multiplexing which makes it very expensive

Full transformation to NGN needs to occur from core to customer

Long term vision is critical, this will be the network for the next decade

What is the most effective technology choice that will:

Minimize CapEx and OpEx?

Provide carrier class service delivery?

Maximize service agility?

Carriers want the deterministic attributes of transport networks with the flexibility of the internet

Chart from Infonetics, Text from DT


MPLS Core

Internet

Mobile PE

7600

eRNC, MGW

MME, SGW…

Mobile Edge

BNG’s

Wireline EdgeDSLAM’s

N-PE

ASR9000

U-PE

ASR9000

Cell Sites

CSG

ASR901

PE’s

Business

Users

Pre-AGG

[10GE]

AGG

[10GE]RAN

[GE]

Pre-AGG

ASR903

Unified MPLS Mobile Transport

Which Technology? MPLS.

AGG

ASR9000

Pre-AGG

ASR903

CSG

ASR901


ASR901 – lowest power consumption in industry

2/3 less than comparable competitive offering

25,000 cell sites, $0.12 per KWhr

5 year power savings NPV is $10 Million


Intelligent offload for 2G, 3G, or 4G Networks

•Carrier-Grade

•Unified Architecture

•Seamless Experience

•Converged Packet

Core

• Intelligent & Secure

Access Radio

Cisco Aironet 1550

Access Point

Seamless mobility, security and

RF excellence

• Outdoor 11n access point

• Reduced interference with

CleanAir

• Dual radio access points

• DOCSIS 3.0 option

SMB

Managed AP

Internet

3G/4G

Macro Site

Indoor

Hotspot

Metro WiFi

Partner

Net

MSP

Credentials

IP Core

Stadium / Large

Venue

WLC for

On-Premise

Content

UCS

Wireless LAN

Controller (WLC)

Wireless Control

System (WCS)

IP

Backhaul

ASR 5000SCE



IP NGN Architecture, Simplification, 100GE

• Services Monetization

OTT, Videoscape

• IPv6 Transition

IPv4 Exhaust, CGN, dual-stack, 6/6/12 – W6L

• Mobility and 4G

Role of IP, Video, IPv6, Unified MPLS Transport

Thank you.

quo vadis, internet? - cisco · quo vadis, internet? sp1 josef ungerman, ccie #6167 ... •...

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