quotes on budget approach...billions of dollars 2012-2021 discretionary budget authority 11 house...
TRANSCRIPT
House Budget Committee Democrats
Quotes on Budget Approach
Posters for Floor Debate on the FY 2012 Budget
XX
House Budget Committee Democrats
Criticism of the Republican Budget
4/26/2011
House Budget Committee Democrats
5
Washington Post: Fact-checking the Republican budget plan
The Pinocchio Test
“…the Ryan budget plan relies on dubious assertions, questionable assumptions and fishy figures…the budget presentation falls short of his claim that he is getting rid of budget gimmicks.”
Washington Post, p A8, 4/10/2011
Two Pinocchios
4/26/2011
6
House Budget Committee Democrats
No Shared Sacrifice
4/26/2011From: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
“Two-Thirds of Proposed Cuts in Ryan Plan Come from Low-Income Programs”, CBPP, 4/5/2011
Low-income program cuts………......(e.g. Medicaid, Pell Grants, food stamps, low-income housing)$2.9 trillion
Other program cuts………………$1.4 trillion
Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY 2012 Budget ResolutionNote: Manager’s amendment would add $0.2 trillion in other cuts
7
House Budget Committee Democrats
Conservative Economists Criticize ‘Off the Deep End’ Republican Budget
“It doesn’t address in any serious or courageous way the issue of the near and medium-term deficit. I think the biggest problem is revenues. It is simply unrealistic to say that raising revenue isn’t part of the solution. It’s a measure of how far off the deep end Republicans have gone with this religious catechism about taxes.”
- David Stockman, former head of OMB under Ronald Reagan
On unemployment, Ryan plan is “implausibly optimistic.”- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of CBO and economic advisor to John McCain and George W. Bush
…the plan doesn’t do anything to control health care costs, and cutting Medicaid is neither good policy, nor urgent…he notes “Medicaid should be one of the last parts of the health care budget to cut.”
- Tyler Cowen, General Director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University
“It’s just not going to work.”- Senator Saxby Chambliss
4/26/2011
Source: www.talkingpointsmemo.com , 4/11/2011http://www.bloomberg.com, 4/11/2011
8
House Budget Committee Democrats
Debt Subject to Limit Continues to Grow In Republican Budget
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Trill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Debt Subject to Limit in House Republican Budget
9
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republican Budget Pays for Tax Cuts for Millionaires by Cutting Vital Services
$800 B
Transportation, $276 B
Education, Training, Social
Services, $223 B
Income Security, $119 B
Health, $115 B
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Tax Cuts for the Wealthy Cuts to Vital Services
Billi
ons
of D
olla
rs
2012-2021
Discretionary Budget Authority
11
House Budget Committee Democrats
“SLASH-ONOMICS”By Anyone’s Estimate, Republicans’ spending Cuts in
H.R. 1 Would Lose Jobs, Not Create Them
-200,000
-700,000-800,000
-975,000-1,200,000
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke
Economist Mark Zandi
Economic Policy Institute
Center for American Progress
Jobs
4/26/2011
12
House Budget Committee Democrats 4/26/2011
Republican Budget Cuts Taxes $2.5 Trillion MORE than the Fiscal Commission
-1,619
-4,162
Commission House Republican BudgetTax Policy Changes, 2012-2021, in Billions of dollars
13
House Budget Committee Democrats
Fiscal Commission Raised $2.5 Trillion More in Revenue Than the Republican Budget
4/26/2011
$0.0$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
Commission Chairman Ryan
Trill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Sources: CBO, OMB, and the Fiscal Commission's “Moment of Truth" final report.
$2.5 Trillion
14
House Republican Budget
House Budget Committee Democrats
Historical Comparison Tables
4/26/2011
House Budget Committee Democrats
Top Tax Rate and Total Net Job Creation
3/30/2011
20.8 million jobs
created653,000 jobs lost
39.6%35%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Net
Tot
al P
riva
te-S
ecto
r Jo
b Cr
eati
on in
Mill
ions
Top
Tax
Rate
Source: Department of Treasury and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
President Clinton President Bush
15
House Budget Committee Democrats
Bush and Republicans Leave Obama an $8 Trillion Fiscal Mess to Clean Up
4/26/2011
Bush inherits a forecasted$5.6 Trillion 10-Year Surplus
Obama inherits a forecasted$8 Trillion 10-Year Deficit
17
House Budget Committee Democrats
Top Tax Rate and Average Annual Growth
2/16/2011
3.9%Real GDP Growth 2.1%
Real GDP Growth
39.6%35%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Infla
tion
-Adj
uste
d Ec
onom
ic G
row
th R
ate
Top
Tax
Rate
Source: Department of Treasury and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
President Clinton President Bush
18
House Budget Committee Democrats 4/26/2011
Economy Has Added 1.7 Million Private-Sector Jobs Since Start of 2010
(841)
-21
144
229
4865 93110
109143128
167
94
240230
-850
-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11
Monthly change in private payrolls(thousands)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls, U.S. Department of Labor.
Bush Administration Obama Administration
19
House Budget Committee Democrats
Recovery Takes Hold as Economy Grows For a Sixth Straight Quarter
Source: BEA 3/25/2011
Perc
ent o
f civ
ilian
labo
r for
ce
-4.0%
-6.8%
-4.9%
-0.7%
1.6%
5.0%3.7%
1.7% 2.6%3.1%
08-III 08-IV 09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV 10-I 10-II 10-III 10-IV
Ann
ualiz
ed P
erce
nt C
hang
e in
Rea
l GD
P
President Bush
2008 2009 2010
President Obama
20
House Budget Committee Democrats
Tax Issue Slides
House Budget Committee Democrats
Top Individual Tax Rates Have Fallen In the Post War Era, 1945-2011
4/26/2011
94%
35%
6.0%
1.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%19
45
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Real
Eco
nom
ic G
row
th
Tax
Rate
Top Individual Tax Rate
Real GDP Growth by Decade
Sources: Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
22
House Budget Committee Democrats
Top Corporate Tax Rates Have Fallen In the Post War Era, 1945-2011
4/26/2011
40%35%
6.0%
1.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%19
45
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Real
Eco
nom
ic G
row
th
Tax
Rate
Corporate Top Tax Rate
Real Economic Growth
Sources: Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
23
House Budget Committee Democrats
U.S. Corporate Tax Revenues as a Share of GDP are Low by OECD Standards
4/26/2011
1.1 1.
3 1.4 1.
7 1.9
1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
2.2 2.
4
2.4
2.4 2.5
2.5 2.
7 2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8 3.
1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
3.7
5.4
5.9
8.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Corp
orat
e Re
venu
es a
s a
Perc
ent o
f GD
P
Source: OECD, 2010.
25
House Budget Committee Democrats
GENERAL ELECTRIC Reported $14.2 Billion in Profits… and Received a $3.2 Billion Tax Refund
$14.2
$3.2
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
GE's Worldwide After-Tax Income
Billi
ons
of D
olla
rs
Tax Refund
Corporate Profits
4/26/2011
Source: New York Times, March 24, 2011, “G.E.’s Strategies Let It Avoid Taxes Altogether” by David Kocieniewski
$17.4 Billion
26
House Budget Committee Democrats 4/26/2011
Tax Expenditures Equal Entire Discretionary Budget
Security
Individual
Non-Security
Corporate
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Discretionary Spending FY11 Tax Expenditures FY11
In B
illio
ns o
f Dol
lars
$1.077 Trillion $1.068 Trillion
Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office
27
House Budget Committee Democrats
Health Care Slides and Quotes
House Budget Committee Democrats
Affordable Care Act Is Entitlement Reform; Bends Medicare Cost Curve
Total Medicare Spending as a Percent of GDP
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Pre-ACA
Post-ACA
4/26/2011
28
Source: 2009 and 2010 Medicare Trustees Reports
House Budget Committee Democrats
ACA is Entitlement Reform
4/26/2011
“Repealing the Affordable Care Act would cause needless economic harm and would set back efforts to create a more disciplined and more effective health care system…”
Letter Signed by Alice Rivlin and other economists to the HBC January 6, 2011
“I do believe that almost every idea about improving quality and reducing cost was incorporated in some way, usually as a pilot program, into the Affordable Care Act, and we need to fund it …”
“I strongly believe that the Affordable Care Act has the potential to bend the cost curve.”
Alice Rivlin, March 17, 2011
29
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republican Budget Cuts Taxes for Wealthy, Dismantles Medicaid
4/26/2011
$800
-$771
-$1,000-$800-$600-$400-$200
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000Tax Cuts for Wealthy
Dismantling Medicaid
Effect on deficit 2012-2021, in billions
30
House Budget Committee Democrats 4/5/2011
“A major feature of the Ryan plan is a drastic reform of Medicare and Medicaid - but reform with deep cuts and deeper than, I think, many of us would feel were realistic or humane.”
-Alice Rivlin, April 5, 2011
Republican Medicare and Medicaid Cuts Unrealistic and Inhumane
32
House Budget Committee Democrats
Rivlin Opposes Republican Health Proposal
4/26/2011
“We talked fairly recently and…I said I don’t actually support the form in which he put it in the budget.”
“We had worked together but the version that’s in the budget resolution is not one that I would subscribe to.”
- Alice Rivlin, Politico, April, 5 2011
33
34
34A
The Republican budget plan relies on massive cuts to Medicare, including a ration program in which seniors would use vouchers of diminishing value.
According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the Republican budget, “Ends Guaranteed Medicare.”
House Budget Committee Democrats
Issue Specific Slides
Big oil, green jobs, education, etc.
4/26/2011
House Budget Committee Democrats
“Big 5” Oil Company Profits 2001-2010
4/26/2011
-$5.0
$45.0
$95.0
$145.0
$195.0
$245.0
$295.0
$345.0
Exxon Chevron Conoco Phillips
Shell BP
Billi
ons
of D
olla
rs
2001-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$310
$152
$95
$207
$138
Source: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/01/oil_lust.html
35
House Budget Committee Democrats
“Big 5” Oil Company CEO Salaries
4/26/2011
$0.0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0$50.0$60.0$70.0$80.0$90.0
$100.0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Exxon Chevron Conoco Phillips Shell BP
$92.5
$65.9
$78.0
$66.0
Source: www.morningstar.com
36
House Budget Committee Democrats
Green Energy Generates 3.2 Times More U.S. Jobs than Fossil Fuels
5.3 Jobs
16.7 Jobs
Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Investments
Job Creation from $1 million in Spending
Source: Input-Output tables of the U.S. Commerce Department, as compiled by Center for American Progress
37
House Budget Committee Democrats
U.S. Students Are Not Globally Competitive
4/26/2011
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
Average = 496
Math Scores for 15-Year-Olds in OECD Countries
38
House Budget Committee Democrats
When Education Matters Most
4/26/2011
Unemployment rates by educational attainment for October 2009
15.3
11.2
8.9
4.8
10.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Less Than High School
High School Only Some College Bachelor's Degree All
Une
mpl
oym
ent
Rate
(%)
Peakunemploymentrate from thisrecession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
39
House Budget Committee Democrats
Additional Charts
4/26/2011
House Budget Committee Democrats
Fantasy: Heritage Foundation Predicts Bush 2001 Tax Cuts Will Create 1.4 Million Jobs by 2008
Reality: Payrolls Shrunk by 8.7 Million by 2008
4/11/2011
26 325 519 778 1,032 1,203 1,292 1,366
-1,591
-4,771
-6,730-7,149
-6,531
-5,686 -5,898
-8,650-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total Employment in Thousands, Difference from Baseline Projection
Heritage Actual
Source: Heritage (2001) and Center for American Progress’s calculation of BLS data.
42
House Budget Committee Democrats
Household Incomes fall for the First Time During Bush Years
4/26/2011
1.8%
0.6%
1.3%
0.8%
-0.1%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Ave
rage
Ann
ual G
row
th
Economic cycles (peak-to-peak)
Peak-to-peak household income growth during the past five economic cycles (on an annualized basis)
Source: Census Bureau Historical Income Statistics 2008.
43
House Budget Committee Democrats
Senior Citizens’ Health Costs Skyrocket Under Republican Budget
$12,500
$9,750
$8,600
$8,000
$9,150
$20,700
$6,150
$12,500
Government's Share Beneficiary's Share
Health care spending for a typical 65-year-old in 2022, in dollars
Health care spending for a typical 65-year-old in 2030, in dollars
4/26/2011
Republican Budget
Republican Budget
Current Medicare
Current Medicare
Source: Based on CBO analysis 4/5/11
44
House Budget Committee Democrats
Mandatory Spending in the Republican Budget
Health Care Programs
Health Care Programs
Social Security Social Security
All Other
All Other
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2050
Perc
ent o
f GD
P
Source: CBO
45
House Budget Committee Democrats
2010 Spending Detail
Defense Discretionary
Nondefense Discretionary
Other Mandatory
All Other
Mandatory Health Care
Programs
Social Security
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 All Other
Perc
ent o
f GD
P
Source: CBO
46
House Budget Committee Democrats
Defense Discretionary
4.7%
Nondefense Discretionary
4.6%
Other Mandatory
2.9%
All Other3.5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2050
Perc
ent o
f GD
PRepublican Long-Term Spending Plan Not Credible
By 2050, “All Other” Category Smaller Than Current Defense Levels
Source: CBO
47
All Other
House Budget Committee Democrats
Seniors and Disabled Individuals RepresentTwo-Thirds of Medicaid Spending
Medicaid Expenditures by Enrollment Group, 2007
Children: 20%
Seniors and Disabled: 67%
Adults: 12%
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
48
House Budget Committee Democrats
Affordable Care Act Helps Seniors In Doughnut Hole Save Thousands of Dollars
$520 $560 $632 $732 $834
$952 $1,111
$1,287 $1,485
$1,724
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average Part D Out-of-Pocket Savings for Medicare Beneficiaries With High Prescription Drug Costs
4/26/2011Source: Department of Health and Human Services
49
House Budget Committee Democrats
Our National Security Requires That We Address Our Debt
“The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.”
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen
4/26/2011
50
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republicans Want More Tax Cuts for These “Small Businesses”…
• Wall Street Investment House KKR• Big 4 Accounting Firm
PricewaterhouseCoopers• Fortune 100 Pipeline Co. Enterprise GP
Holdings
… And They Want the Middle Class to Pick up the Tab
4/26/2011
51
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republicans Don’t Want to Tell You Who They Count as “Small Businesses”
• Just under 3% of taxpayers (750,000) with net positive business income fall in the top two tax brackets.
• Many such businesses are hardly “small”: In 2005, 12,862 S Corps and 6,658 partnerships grossed more than $50 million.
Joint Committee on Taxation, July 14, 2010
4/26/2011
52
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republicans End Medicare and Gut Services... To Get to the Same Place as
Returning to Clinton-Era Tax Rates
Republican Budget Current Law
10-Y
ear
Def
icit
s $5.09 Trillion$5.47 Trillion
4/26/2011
52
(with President’s War Costs)
House Budget Committee Democrats
Republican Budget is not a Balanced Approach to Deficit Reduction
“…We are concerned that it falls short of the balanced, comprehensive approach needed to achieve the broad bipartisan agreement necessary to enact a responsible plan.”
“Bowles, Simpson react to Republican budget proposal”, March 30, 2011 Press Release
4/26/2011
1
House Budget Committee Democrats
Defense Spending Must be On the Table
4/26/2011
“Anybody who says you can't save money at the Pentagon has never been to the Pentagon. We can save money on defense and if we Republicans don't propose saving money on defense, we'll have no credibility on anything else.”
Gov. Haley Barbour, Politico, March 15, 2011
2
House Budget Committee Democrats
Fiscal Circumstances Require Us to Restrain Defense Spending
4/26/2011
“During the course of our Task Force’s work, we confronted the question of whether the military must sacrifice also. We understand that making cuts in this area is hard, but our fiscal circumstances require us to restrain defense spending growth and demand more efficiency from our military.”
- Former Sen. Pete Domenici, 2/24/2011
3
House Budget Committee Democrats
President Reagan’s Budget Director says, “Millionaire Tax Cuts Unconscionable”
“I find it unconscionable that the Republican leadership, faced with a$1.5 trillion deficit, could possibly believe that good public policy is to maintain tax cuts for the top 2 percent…”
-David StockmanAugust 7, 2010
4