quotes/images/news articles from last winter how cold was last winter enso, large scale patterns...
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• Quotes/Images/News Articles From Last Winter
• How Cold Was Last Winter
• ENSO, Large Scale Patterns (PNA/NAO/AO)
• Mean Upper Air Composites From Past Winters
• What Indices Can Be Used & Possibly Predict Warmer or Colder Winters
*Winter 2013-14
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*Quotes/Images/HumorTwitter/Facebook/News Articles
December 2013Backyard Rink Done. Bring on the
Cold Weather!
Might Cry Tears of Joy if There's a Snow Day Tomorrow.
Snow on ground... Fire in the fireplace… Good hoops on TV… Thank
you, Santa, for the Early Gift.
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January 2014
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February 2014
My car handles this Snow about as well as the Titanic handled the
Atlantic Ocean
Best part of the cold!!! predicted a high of 4 on Thursday. On the bright
side haven't seen a mosquito in months!
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Global Warming Lecture Cancelled Due to Unexpected Blizzard
March 2014
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1 1874-1875 4.0 2 1886-1887 5.7 3 1935-1936 7.3 4 1872-1873 7.9 5 1903-1904 8.4 6 1916-1917 8.5 7 1882-1883 9.2 8 1978-1979 9.4 9 2013-2014 9.7 (Yes! It was a Cold Winter)
*How Cold Was It?Coldest Winters in the Twin Cities: 1872-73 to 2013-14
1981-2010 Normal: 18.7 degrees F (Using Data From xmACIS2. Seasonal Calculations Method – Average of High/Low Temperature by Days
(December 1st thru February 28th)
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*What is considered NormalDue to simplicity, this presentation will use the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport for records, normals and winter trends (Using the typical December 1st to February 28th for Climatology).
Record Highs
Record Lows
Winter 2013-
14
32°
0°
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*How Cold Was It?Average Mean Temperature
Winter Months
Coldest In The Last 33 Years
Average Mean
Temperature9.7 F
Coldest On Record
4.0 F (1874-75)
Average Mean Temperature In Winter
Winter of 2013-14°
Last Colder Mean Temperature
Winter of 1978-79 (9.4F)
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*How Cold Was it?
There Were 9 Days In The
Past 33 Years That Were Colder Than -23 F
What About Extremes… Lowest Temperatures That Had Record Lows?
A Reflection of Longevity Vs. Short-Term Cold Spells
-29F (1983-84), Only Ranked 43rd Coldest Winter
-32F (1995-96), Only Ranked 60th Coldest
Winter
Lack Of Extreme Lows In The 2000s
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*How Cold Was it? Consider How Many Days Were Below
+10F, 5F, 0F, -10F, -15, -20F, -25F During the Last 33 Years? All Recorded Years?
Do You See Any Trends?
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*How Cold Was it? The Top Coldest
Winters Vs. Coldest
Temperatures On Record
Coldest Winters Coldest Temp For That Winter
1 1874-1875 4.0 -32
2 1886-1887 5.7 -363 1935-1936 7.3 -344 1872-1873 7.9 -315 1903-1904 8.4 -336 1916-1917 8.5 -257 1882-1883 9.2 -318 1978-1979 9.4 -28
9 2013-2014 9.7 -23
1887-88 -411879-80 -39*1886-87 -361885-85 -361969-70 -341935-36 -34*1885-86 -34*1903-04 -331898-99 -33
Top Coldest Lows:
Having extreme low temperatures doesn’t necessarily mean a Very Cold Winter And Vice Versa
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*El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Fluctuating Ocean Temperatures along the Equatorial Pacific
- Naturally Occurring Phenomena - Warm Phase, Cold Phase, Neutral Phase
Effects on the Upper Midwest
- During El Niño Years… - There is a Higher Probability of a Warmer Winter
- During La Nina Years…- There is a Higher Probability of a Colder Winter
- During Neutral Years…- No Significant Probability Either Way.
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*Top Coldest Winters Since
19811 2013-2014 9.7 Neutral2 1981-1982 11.7 Neutral3 2000-2001 13.2 La Nina- 1993-1994 13.2 Neutral5 1985-1986 13.5 Neutral6 2008-2009 14.0 La Nina7 1983-1984 14.1 La Nina8 1996-1997 14.4 Neutral9 1984-1985 14.8 La Nina10 2007-2008 15.0 La Nina
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*Top Warmest Winters Since
19811 2001-2002 26.8 Neutral2 2011-2012 26.2 La Nina3 1997-1998 25.8 El Nino4 1986-1987 25.7 El Nino5 1982-1983 23.9 El Nino6 1991-1992 23.6 El Nino7 1999-2000 23.0 La Nina8 2005-2006 22.8 La Nina9 2004-2005 21.4 El Nino- 1998-1999 21.4 La Nina
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* Conditional Height Anomalies During Positive & Negative Phases of The PNA/NAO/AO
Pacific/North American – North American Oscillation – Arctic Oscillation
Characteristics of +NAO/-NAOStronger Jet Stream
Stronger Icelandic LowStronger Azores Highs
Warmer Eastern U.SLess Build Up Cold Air
Weaker Jet StreamColder Air Builds Up/Spills South
Colder Eastern U.S.
Characteristics of +PNA/-PNAStronger 50H Western U.S.
Colder Air Spills Southward Northern Plains/Eastern U.S.
Colder/Drier
Stronger Trough Western U.S.Southwestern Flow
Warmer/Wetter Northern Plains
Characteristics of +AO/-AOCold Air Stays North
Stronger/Less Wavy Jet Stronger Trade Winds
Below Average 50H in Arctic
Colder Air Spills South Weaker/More Wavy JetWeaker Trade Winds
Above Average 50H in Arctic
Positive/Negative Phases of the PNA/NAO/AO Have Larger Effects on Short Term Weather Extremes
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*Typical Cold Upper Midwest Teleconnections
PatternNegative AO
Positive PNA
Polar VortexDrops South
As A Result of -AO
Positive NAO
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* Composite Anomaly 500 mbCold Winters
Average vs 2014
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* Composite Anomaly 500 mbWarm Winters
Average vs 2012
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*What Indices Could be Used For Forecasting
Winter Trends
Long Term (3 – 6 Months)
• El Nino Vs. La Nina Vs. Neutral
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/extended.phphttp://hopwrf.info/CFS/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml
Short Term (1 – 3 Weeks)• PNA… NAO and AO
Phases
http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/#
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Final Thoughts The Winter of 2013-14 Was…
• More Cumulative of Cold Temperatures Vs Extremes
A Common Theme For The Coldest Winters in the Past…• Greater # Of Days Where Overnight Low Temperatures Were Below Zero
The Correlation of the Positive & Negative Phases of the PNA, NAO & AO Have Much Larger Impacts On Winter Patterns/Trends In The Upper Midwest In The Short Term (1 - 3 Weeks Out)
For the Upper Midwest to Have A Similar “Cold” Winter of 2013-14• +PNA, -AO, +NAO Combination (At Least Short Term)
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*Other Interesting Discussions…References…
Scientific Discussions on Climate Change…- More Extreme Weather Events Are Coming Years
Due To Climate Change- The Effects of Less Sea Ice in the Arctic is Causing More Severe
Winters in the Northern Plains. - The Expansion of Antarctica Sea Ice… How Does This Play
In The Climate Change Model
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
http://www.climate.gov/
http://www.globalchange.gov/
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