r graphics output...2020/10/05 · um usc ut yyg bands: 95% prediction intervals aug−03 aug−17...
TRANSCRIPT
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
National
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
ISUIQVIAJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−Mobility
Oliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50k
100k
150k
200k
250k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver Wyman
PSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUAUCLAUCM
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50k
100k
150k
200k
250k
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Alabama
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Alaska
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
●
● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●● ● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●● ● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
American Samoa
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
●
Arizona
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●● ●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●● ●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Arkansas
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
California*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Colorado
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Connecticut
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
● ●
Delaware
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●
District of Columbia
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
●
● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Florida*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
●
Georgia
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
Guam
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMGeneva
JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ
NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMGeneva
JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ
NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSCWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Hawaii
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGoogle−HSPHJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
●
● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GenevaGoogle−HSPHJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Idaho
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
Illinois
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Indiana
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ● ● ● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ● ● ● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
Iowa
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Kansas
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Kentucky
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Louisiana*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Maine
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2
4
6
8N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2
4
6
8
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Maryland
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Massachusetts
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
Michigan
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Minnesota
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ●●
● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ●●
● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Mississippi*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
●
● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Missouri
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●● ●
●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●● ●
●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
Montana
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ● ●
●
●
●
● ●
Nebraska
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●● ●
● ●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●● ●
● ●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nevada
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
New Hampshire
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
New Jersey
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ●
●● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New York
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10k
20k
30k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10k
20k
30k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
North Carolina*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
North Dakota
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva
JHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Ohio
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oklahoma
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Oregon
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Pennsylvania
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
Puerto Rico
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimLSHTM
GenevaJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityPSIESG
TTUUCLAUMass−MBUSCYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimLSHTMGeneva
JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQNotreDame−MobilityPSIESGTTU
UCLAUMass−MBUSCWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Rhode Island
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
●
● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
1.4k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
South Carolina
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●● ● ●
●
● ●
●
South Dakota
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●● ● ●
●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Tennessee*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
250
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●●
●
●
Texas*
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
800
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
● ●
●
Utah
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ● ● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Vermont
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
Virgin Islands
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLLNQ
NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUMass−MB
USCYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1
2
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB
JHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLLNQ
NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUMass−MB
USCWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
20
25
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Virginia
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
200
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●● ●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●● ●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Washington
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ● ●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
West Virginia
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Wisconsin
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
50
100
150
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●● ●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●● ●
●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Wyoming
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ
MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
5
10
15
●
● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
● ●
● ●
● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS
NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
● ●
● ●
● ●●
Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26
0
20
40
60
80
100
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html