r graphics output...2020/10/05  · um usc ut yyg bands: 95% prediction intervals aug−03 aug−17...

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National Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 2k 4k 6k New Weekly Deaths Reported UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Geneva GT-DeepCOVID ISU IQVIA JCB JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL LNQ MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete STH TTU UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 50k 100k 150k 200k 250k Total Deaths Reported UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Geneva GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL LNQ MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete STH TTU UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Walmart YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 50k 100k 150k 200k 250k Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-10-05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html Alabama Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 New Weekly Deaths Reported UGA-CEID CMU Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Geneva Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU IQVIA JCB JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL LNQ MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete TTU UA UCLA UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 500 1k 1.5k 2k 2.5k 3k Total Deaths Reported UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Geneva Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL LNQ MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete TTU UA UCLA UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Walmart YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug-03 Aug-17 Aug-31 Sep-14 Sep-28 Oct-12 Oct-26 0 500 1k 1.5k 2k 2.5k 3k Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-10-05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

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Page 1: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

●●

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National

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGT−DeepCOVID

ISUIQVIAJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−Mobility

Oliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50k

100k

150k

200k

250k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGT−DeepCOVID

ISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver Wyman

PSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUAUCLAUCM

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50k

100k

150k

200k

250k

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Alabama

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

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60

80

100

120

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

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100

120

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

3k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

3k

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 2: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

Alaska

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

American Samoa

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQESGUMass−MBUSC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 3: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

Arizona

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●● ●

●● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

Arkansas

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 4: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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California*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Colorado

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

● ● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 5: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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Connecticut

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Delaware

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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● ●●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 6: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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District of Columbia

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

GenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APL

KarlenLANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

GenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Florida*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

10k

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 7: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ● ●

Georgia

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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300

New

Wee

kly

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

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8k

Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ●

● ●

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Guam

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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5

10

15

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMGeneva

JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ

NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLA

UMass−MBUSCYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ●

● ●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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15

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● ● ● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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20

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60

80

100

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMGeneva

JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ

NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLA

UMass−MBUSCWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 8: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

Hawaii

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

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20

25

30

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

GenevaGoogle−HSPHJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

GenevaGoogle−HSPHJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

Idaho

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

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50

● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 9: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

●●

● ●

Illinois

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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250

300N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

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6k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

● ●

Indiana

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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● ●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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1k

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Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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1k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 10: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

●●

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Iowa

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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500

1k

1.5k●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

●●

Kansas

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

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100

New

Wee

kly

Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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200

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1k

Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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1k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 11: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

●●

Kentucky

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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1.5k

Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

Louisiana*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 12: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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Maine

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2

4

6

8N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Maryland

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 13: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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Massachusetts

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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250N

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Michigan

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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New

Wee

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 14: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

Minnesota

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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20

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100

120N

ew W

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

● ●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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1k

1.5k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

Mississippi*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

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Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 15: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

● ●

Missouri

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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250

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

●● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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1k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

●●

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Montana

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

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300

Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 16: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

●●

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Nebraska

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

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50

60

70N

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●● ●

● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

Nevada

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

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60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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20

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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● ●

New Hampshire

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Tota

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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New Jersey

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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New

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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New Mexico

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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kly

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

New York

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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New

Wee

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ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10k

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Tota

l Dea

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ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 19: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

North Carolina*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

250

300N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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300

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

●●

North Dakota

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

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80

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

500

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

500

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 20: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Northern Mariana Islands

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva

JHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ

ESGUCLAUMass−MB

USCYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

3

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDGeneva

JHU−IDDJHU−APLLNQ

ESGUCLAUMass−MB

USCWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

3

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ●

Ohio

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

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300

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 21: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ● ●

●●

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Oklahoma

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●

●●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ●

●●

Oregon

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

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40

50

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 22: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

● ●●

Pennsylvania

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

● ● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

● ●

●●

Puerto Rico

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimLSHTM

GenevaJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQNotreDame−MobilityPSIESG

TTUUCLAUMass−MBUSCYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

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80

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

1k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimLSHTMGeneva

JCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQNotreDame−MobilityPSIESGTTU

UCLAUMass−MBUSCWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

1k

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 23: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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Rhode Island

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

1.4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

1.4k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

South Carolina

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 24: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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South Dakota

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

s

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

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30

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ● ● ● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

Tennessee*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

250

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

250

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 25: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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Texas*

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

800

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteSTHTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

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● ●

Utah

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

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50

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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● ● ● ● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

200

400

600

●●

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

Page 26: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

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Vermont

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

LNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Virgin Islands

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB

JHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLLNQ

NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUMass−MB

USCYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1

2

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

20

25

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDGenevaJCB

JHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLLNQ

NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUMass−MB

USCWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

● ● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

20

25

●● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 27: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

Virginia

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

200

● ●● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ● ●

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●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ● ●

●● ●

●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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● ●

Washington

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

TTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

● ●● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 28: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

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West Virginia

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLLNQMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

10

20

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50

60

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

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Wisconsin

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

100

150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTUUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

50

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGeneva

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteTTU

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYGBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

Page 29: R Graphics Output...2020/10/05  · UM USC UT YYG Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26 0 2k 4k 6k Ensemble Individual models

● ●

Wyoming

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

ISUIQVIAJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQ

MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

5

10

15

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

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Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGenevaGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLLNQMOBS

NotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteTTUUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartYYG

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

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● ●

● ●●

Aug−03 Aug−17 Aug−31 Sep−14 Sep−28 Oct−12 Oct−26

0

20

40

60

80

100

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals

Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−10−05 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html