r graphics output · 2021. 1. 4. · arizona nov−01 nov−15 dec−01 dec−15 jan−01 jan−15...
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National
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
500k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
500k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alaska
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5
10
15
20
25
30N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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American Samoa
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
14k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
14k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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California
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
●
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Colorado
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Connecticut
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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District of Columbia
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORC
ColumbiaDDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceOliver WymanPSIESG
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
● ●●
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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● ●●
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Florida
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●● ● ●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Georgia**
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
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Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
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●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APL
PSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
● ●●
● ●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
LSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APL
PSIUCLAUMass−MB
USC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
● ●●
● ●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
Hawaii
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5
10
15
20
25N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5
10
15
20
25
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●●
● ●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●●
● ●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Idaho
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Illinois
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
Indiana
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Iowa*
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Kansas
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Kentucky
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
Louisiana
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Maine
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Maryland
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ●●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
Massachusetts
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
● ●
Michigan
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
Minnesota*
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Mississippi
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Missouri
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Montana*
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nebraska
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
Nevada
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●●
● ●
●
●●
● ●
●
New Hampshire
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
●●
● ●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
New Jersey
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
New York**
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
-
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
North Carolina
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
North Dakota
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
●
●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Ohio
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ● ●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
Oklahoma
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Oregon
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Pennsylvania
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Puerto Rico
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNC
Covid19SimLSHTMJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLPSIESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNC
Covid19SimLSHTMKarlenLANL
PSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Walmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Rhode Island
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
South Carolina
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
South Dakota
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Tennessee
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−04 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
-
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
Texas
Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−1