rabi s sainjunasc: result based planning 12 th august 2015 rabi s sainju national planning...

Rabi S Sainju NASC: Result Based Planning 12th August 2015

Rabi S Sainju

National Planning Commission Secretariat

Result Based Planning

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Presentation Outline

1. Background : Demand for Better Result

2. Concept and focus of RBP3. Elements and Basic Tools of RBP 4. Result based Planning Process5. Result based Management 6. Result Chain7. Operationalization of RBP in Nepal8. Conclusions

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Background: Demand for Better Results

• GDP-centered economic growth led to steady increase in income inequality

• Realization to introduce participation, transparency and accountability into government work.

• Increasing demand for the delivery of sustainable and more equitable development.

• Positive changes of NPM movement on some countries in 1980s through greater accountability in the public sector

• Greater realization for optimum use of limited resources for achieving greater value for money and international goals

• Realization among the donors for development effectiveness 3


Began in UK, New Zealand, Australia in the 1980s Expanded to USA in early1990s Encouraged by OECD among developed countries during

the 1990s Pushed by USA (Bush Adm.) as a policy for devt aid

starting early 2001 Being increasingly adopted by developing countries and

agencies in various forms

RB Approach in Public Sector Mgmt

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What is result based planning ?

• Result-based planning uses public’s needs and desired results as the foundation for planning

Result based planning focuses on the key questions: “How has the planning made a

difference?” “How are the lives of the general public

better as a result of planning?”

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Result Based Planning Why and How ?

• Results-based planning focuses more on the results in terms of outcome and impact of the plan.

• It tries to ensures whether the outcome and impact of the plan is as per the set medium term goals and long term vision.

• It gives importance to strategy as to how it could be realized by looking at different options it have and develop policies and programs to realize the goals and targets.

• It is thus more a strategic planning as against the normal medium term planning that started from the Communist Regime in Russia focusing more the material balance.

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Result Based Planning Why and How ? (Contd..)

• It focus on a medium term goal derived from a clear vision of the future,

• It propose a combination of objectives that have been prioritized by rigorous analysis of the political, social and economic environment.

• The long-term vision however should be based on a well documented assessment of the country’s socioeconomic status and include goals to be achieved in each of the strategic areas.

• It also need to respond to the question “How do we want to get there?”

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RBP: Why do we care?

• Changes focus from HOW to get it done to WHY we do it• To drive the planning process from people’s need • Makes us accountable to our client and stakeholders• Help to demonstrate results:

1. Better implementation2. Better communication3. Stronger capacity development4. More realistic project schedules5. Useful evaluation results6. Reducing opportunities and pressures for corruption

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Timeline

Early ’70s

Projects (Logframe; Cost-Benefit Analysis)

Mid ’80s

Sectoral Programs (Results Frameworks; Performance Monitoring Plans)

Mid ’90s

Country-Wide and Agency-Level RBM Systems (Medium-term Plans; Annual Reports)

Early ’00s

Multi-County Frameworks (Global Goals; Common Indicators; Development Effectiveness Reports)

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Elements of a Result Based Planning• Understand where we are ? – Analysis of the socio-economic status , poverty

and inequality and the strength and weaknesses of the economy and the country’s development effort. Finding gaps and strength.

• Clear vision as to what we want to achieve or where we want to reach over a medium to long term? – Setting up of long term vision and objectives and targets for the medium term.

• Clear understanding of the path as to how we achieve vision and objectives ? - Choosing options for better strategy to attain the objective/goals and designing policies and programs to ensure its outcome/output and impact relating to medium term objectives and long term vision.

• Clear understanding of the resources - both human and capital and institutional setup to achieve set targets? Analysis of resource potential and availability, both domestic and foreign, in financing policies and programs and assessing institutional set ups to carry out plan implementation.

• Ensure whether we have accomplished the set targets . Designing monitoring and evaluation system to check implementation process , output and the quality of work done as envisaged.

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Basic Tools Used in Result Based Planning

• Planning consistency is given top most priority in RBP. Most often a macro planning model is used for checking the consistency and analysis.

• Expenditure framework that make consistency in resource potential and availability in the likely future situation is also used for the purpose.

• Result Framework is widely used to check the consistency in the outcome/impact, output and inputs.

• Result based monitoring framework is used for monitoring and evaluation of the plan and provide feed back.

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Goals

Plan

Results-based planning process

Budget

ImplementMonitor

Evaluate

Plan for results• Results defined• Indicators, targets

Budget for results• Budget aligned with

activities

Implement for results

Monitor results• Linked to planning• How & who• Data, reporting

Evaluate results• How & who• Dissemination,

feedback

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A result is a desirable change resulting from a cause-effect relationship (output, outcome and impact)

RBM includes Defining realistic expected results with proper analysis Identifying beneficiaries & design programmes meet their

needs Monitoring progress for results using result indicators Reporting on results achieved and resources involved Identifying and managing risks Lessons learning and informed decision making

Result Based Management (RBM)

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Str

ate

gic

Pla

nn

ing

1. Identifying clear and measurable objectives

2. Selecting indicators

3. Setting explicit targets

Perf

orm

an

ce

Measu

rem

en

t

4. Developing performance monitoring systems

5. Reviewing, analyzing and reporting actual results vis-à-vis targets

Resu

lts-

Base

d

(Perf

orm

an

ce)

Man

ag

em

en

t

6. Using evaluation findings to provide complementary information and explanation

7. Using performance information for accountability, learning, resource allocation decisions, and reporting to stakeholders and partners

Moving from Strategic Planning to RBM

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Operational vs. Developmental results

Inputs Activities

The adm./mgmt. product of agency, its programmes or projects

Developmental results

Output Outcome Impact

An actual change in the state of human devt. that is the logical consequence of investment in devt

Operational results

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Logic models and Results chain

• Results chain identify the means-ends relations in the analysis of objectives

• Steps in results chain;– Start from outcome – Identify the impact the outcome contributes to– Define outputs– Plan for the activities needed to achieve those outputs– Work on the inputs needed to implement those activities

• For establishing means-ends relationship use logic models within the RBM shift or use results chain

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Inputs

Outputs

IntermediateOutcomes

National StrategicOutcomes

Resources

WS SectorNew WS Sys.

MunicipalityWaste Mgmt Sys.

Access toDrinking Water

Reduced infectious diseases

Proper GarbageDisposal

PersonalCleanliness

Health SectorHealth Edu Program

Result Chain

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The likely or achieved short-term andmedium-term effects of an intervention’soutputs.

Positive and negative, primary and secondarylong-term effects produced by adevelopment intervention, directly or indirectly,intended or unintended.

Impact:

Outcome:

Outputs:

Example

The products and services which result from the completion of activities within a development intervention.

Standard of living of the farmers increased in selected districts

2000 farmers have been trained to improve cropping pattern in selected districts

Agriculture Productivity increased in selected districts

Human Change

Products & ServicesSkills & Abilities

Institutional & Behavioural Change

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Focus on performance

‘Performance’ defined as output/outcome/impact not completion of activities or budget disbursement

Emphasis on efficiency (allocative, operational) and effectiveness

Efficiency: how the budget is used to deliver outputs ?

Effectiveness: are the outputs resulting in outcomes for the people?

Emphasis on Accountability for results

What does RBP bring to PSM?

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Benefits/advantages of RBM

• Better priority setting and improved resource allocation and usage

• Integrates interventions at different levels: program, organization, sector, country

• Improved customer orientation • More consultation and participatory interaction• Acceptance of accountability for performance • Provides a common framework to discuss performance

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Economic Growth Situation in Nepal

Plan Period ICOR Economic Growth at base price (%)

Poverty line (%) Gini Coefficient

Remark

Third Plan (2022-27) 2.2

Fourth Plan (2027-32) 1.8

Fifth Plan( 2032-37) 2.3 34 (NPC)

Sixth Plan (2037-42) 4.4

Seventh Plan (2042-47) 4.57 49

2047-48; 2048-29 7.03; 4.66

Eighth Plan ( 2049-54) 4.3 4.84 41.76 (NLSS I) 0.34

Ninth Plan (2054-59) 4.1 3.70 38

Tenth Plan (2059-64) 4.3 3.58 30.85 (NLSS II) 0.41

TYIP (2064-67) 4.8 4.65 25.16 (NLSS III) 0.33

TYP ( 2067-70) 5.0 3.97 23.88 CBS22


Indicators for Nepal’s Graduation from LDC (Example)

Indicators 2013 2015 2018 2021 2024

Gross National Income 721 753 947 1207 1560Human Assets Index 62.1 70.1 76.6 82.9 86.6Percentage of population Undernourished 17 16 14.5 13 11.5Mortality rate for children aged five or under 48.7 38 32 26 22Gross secondary enrolment ratio 51.7 54 60 65 68Adult literacy rate 59.1 75 85 95 100Economic Vulnerability Index 27.8 27.5 26.4 25.3 24.3Population 27.22 27.89 29.12 30.32 31.58Remoteness (Adjusted for LLDC) 56.6 56.6 56.6 56.6 56.6Merchandises export concentration 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11Share of Agri. , Fisheries & Forestry 32.2 33.89 32.32 30.83 29.41Instability of exports of goods and services 11.6 11.2 10.6 10 9.8Victims of natural disasters 0.73 0.71 0.65 0.6 0.55Instability of agriculture production 2.25 2.05 1.9 1.75 1.5


RB Practices in Nepal

Level Planning Budgeting Monitoring

National MTP/ TYPLog frame,Result matrixes

MTEF PMASRB monitoringNDAC

Sectoral SWApBusiness plan as a sectoral strategy

MTEF sectoral papersRBB

Performance indicatorsMDAC

Project Log frames mandatory

Performance based budgetRBB

Performance M&E

Local DPPs Log frame based

D-MTEFFormula based grants

MCPMDPMASSocial audits

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Result Based MTEF

Strategic link between periodic plan and budget established Budget predictability improved and resources estimates

made more realisticMulti-year budgetingUnit costingSystematic budget estimation/negotiation processes Improved coordination among NPC, MOF & line ministries

Prioritization of projects/programs. Establish linkages with defined results

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Conclusion• Result-based Planning System is necessary for :

Effectiveness Efficiency Accountability Transparency

• It contributes on:enlarging the size of the economy, leveling the playing field for investment Ensure contribution of all in growth process sustain the present level of achievementsbenefit to all sections of society improve economic growth.

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Take home message

• Frameworks/tools help in design but are not panacea• Form commitment of leadership needed to proceed

results-based reforms• Adopt sequential approaches linking broad-based and

pilots• Institutionalization and mainstreaming is necessary • Capacities need to be enhanced• Linking incentive structure with results is vital for the

success27


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rabi s sainjunasc: result based planning 12 th august 2015 rabi s sainju national planning...

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