rachael dempsey penn state’s institutes of the environment [email protected]

Rachael Dempsey

Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment

[email protected]

CARA REGIONCARA REGION

15% of the nations population15% of the nations population <10% of the territory<10% of the territory 2 largest estuaries2 largest estuaries One-quarter agricultureOne-quarter agriculture Two-thirds forestTwo-thirds forest

PRIOR RESEARCHPRIOR RESEARCH

United States Regional United States Regional AssessmentAssessment MARAMARA NERANERA

Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE TRENDS TRENDS

Temperature:Temperature: 52 degrees F, average annual T52 degrees F, average annual T 1 degree Fahrenheit increase1 degree Fahrenheit increase Projected Temperature increase Projected Temperature increase

Precipitation:Precipitation: 41 inches, average annual ppt41 inches, average annual ppt 10% increase10% increase Projected ppt variabilityProjected ppt variability

Extreme events are more noticeableExtreme events are more noticeable

LESSONS LEARNED FROM LESSONS LEARNED FROM MARAMARA

While processes are global in While processes are global in extent…extent…

Interactions with human systems Interactions with human systems at regional scales are decisive for at regional scales are decisive for planners and policy makers planners and policy makers

Global & national Global & national Regional & Regional & locallocal integrated assessments integrated assessments

GOALGOAL

Web-based information resource Web-based information resource and tools to support decision and tools to support decision making affected by changes in making affected by changes in land use and climateland use and climate

Stakeholder driven development, Stakeholder driven development, research and integrationresearch and integration

SECTORSSECTORS

AgricultureAgriculture EconomyEconomy EcosystemsEcosystems ForestsForests Human HealthHuman Health Sea-level riseSea-level rise Water resourcesWater resources

THE CONSORTIUMTHE CONSORTIUM

US Environmental Protection Agency US Environmental Protection Agency

Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Rhode Island, University, University of Rhode Island, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceVirginia Institute of Marine Science

Collaborators, Advisory Council, StudentsCollaborators, Advisory Council, Students 100+ stakeholders100+ stakeholders Scientific, public, private, government Scientific, public, private, government

sectors sectors

CASE CASE STUDIESTUDIESSSafeguarding:Safeguarding: Natural Natural

resourcesresources Local Local

EconomyEconomy InfrastructureInfrastructure

THE CARA WEBSITETHE CARA WEBSITE

Integrates climate and land use Integrates climate and land use change information at the regional change information at the regional and local levelsand local levels

Provides data, tools, guidance for Provides data, tools, guidance for assessing:assessing: Potential impactsPotential impacts Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities Options and opportunitiesOptions and opportunities

FOR FOR MULTIPLEMULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERSSTAKEHOLDERS

ImprovingImproving use of information in use of information in decision making and policydecision making and policy

EnhancingEnhancing dialog and cooperation dialog and cooperation among scientists and between among scientists and between science and societyscience and society

AdaptingAdapting to potential impacts due to potential impacts due to changes in land use and climateto changes in land use and climate

DATADATA

Climate dataClimate data Land use data Land use data Environmental quality data Environmental quality data Socio-economic dataSocio-economic data

Data sourcesData sources

WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN DODO Synthesize; interpret information:Synthesize; interpret information:

ClimateClimate Land useLand use EnvironmentEnvironment Socio-economicsSocio-economics

Gather additional informationGather additional information Make graphs, maps etc.Make graphs, maps etc. Visualize the future via scenarios Visualize the future via scenarios Assess change, vulnerability, Assess change, vulnerability,

uncertainty uncertainty Systematically evaluate options; planSystematically evaluate options; plan

WEB-BASED TOOLS, WEB-BASED TOOLS, GUIDANCEGUIDANCE Tools toTools to

Access, analyze information Access, analyze information Integrate information Integrate information Synthesize information Synthesize information Apply information Apply information otherother

Tool integrationTool integration Content integration Content integration Web integrationWeb integration

Guidance/ websiteGuidance/ website Development with stakeholders; case studiesDevelopment with stakeholders; case studies InteractiveInteractive IterativeIterative

TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor && AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler

TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed]

ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor && AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler

TOOLSTOOLS CARAVizCARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool : a visualization/mapping tool [completed][completed] ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends,

variability variability [in progress][in progress]

GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler


variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing

a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed]

SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler



a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors

[complete][complete]

CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler




[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change,

integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]

FloodLocatorFloodLocator FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler





integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea

level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress]

FutureShaperFutureShaper DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler





integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea

level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress] FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future

scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]

DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler


ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends, variability variability [in progress][in progress]

GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing : for choosing a Global Climate Model a Global Climate Model [completed][completed]

SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors [complete][complete]

CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]

FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods level rise/floods [in progress][in progress]

FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]

DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, : identifies critical decisions, policy options policy options [in progress][in progress]

e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler


ClimateTrendsVizClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, : identifies historical climate trends, variability variability [in progress][in progress]

GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a : for choosing a Global Climate Model Global Climate Model [completed][completed]

SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors [complete][complete]

CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments integrated assessments [in progress][in progress]

FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods rise/floods [in progress][in progress]

FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the scenarios of the [near completion][near completion]

DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, : identifies critical decisions, policy options policy options [in progress][in progress]

e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool: facilitates multiple stakeholder input, : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation participation [complete][complete]

DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler


variability variability [in progress][in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionToolGlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a : for choosing a

Global Climate Model Global Climate Model [completed][completed] SensitivityScreenToolSensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors : to identify sensitive sectors

[complete][complete] CARA-TutorCARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated : on climate change, land use change, integrated

assessments assessments [in progress][in progress] FloodLocatorFloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level

rise/floods rise/floods [in progress][in progress] FutureShaperFutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios : generates comprehensive future scenarios

of the of the [near completion][near completion] DecisionsSupportToolDecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy : identifies critical decisions, policy

options options [in progress][in progress] e-DelphiToole-DelphiTool: facilitates multiple stakeholder input, : facilitates multiple stakeholder input,

participation participation [complete][complete] DocuMentorDocuMentor & & AssessmentCompilerAssessmentCompiler: manages, : manages,

integrates, synthesizes information integrates, synthesizes information [in progress][in progress]

STAKEHOLDER CONCERNSSTAKEHOLDER CONCERNS

How has climate of the mid & upper How has climate of the mid & upper Atlantic region changed in recent past?Atlantic region changed in recent past?

How well do the models work?How well do the models work?How well do they simulate How well do they simulate thisthis climate? climate?

CLIMATE TOOLSCLIMATE TOOLS

View current and historic climate View current and historic climate by region, countyby region, county

Choose among 7 Global Climate Choose among 7 Global Climate ModelsModels

Analyze T or ppt for region, countyAnalyze T or ppt for region, county View model’s projections over timeView model’s projections over time Compare with other modelsCompare with other models

CLIMATE VARIABLESCLIMATE VARIABLES

TemperatureTemperature

PrecipitationPrecipitation

TIME PERIODSTIME PERIODS Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SONSeasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON

30-year periods: 30-year periods: 1961-19901961-1990 2010-20392010-2039 2040-20692040-2069 2070-20992070-2099

Model outputs only for monthly average Model outputs only for monthly average (time scales < one month NOT considered)(time scales < one month NOT considered)

EXAMPLE TIME SERIESEXAMPLE TIME SERIESTOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)TOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)

MODEL EVALUATIONMODEL EVALUATION

Description of climate models used Description of climate models used

(currently 5, planning on 7)(currently 5, planning on 7)

Modeled and observed climate Modeled and observed climate variables for 1961-1990: variables for 1961-1990: seasonal averages seasonal averages (planning) interannual variability(planning) interannual variability

7 GLOBAL CLIMATE 7 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSMODELS Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

((HCCPRHCCPR)) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organisation (Research Organisation (CSIROCSIRO)) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDLGFDL)) Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis

((CCCCCC)) Center for Climate Research Studies (Center for Climate Research Studies (CCSRCCSR)/ )/

National Institute for Environmental Studies (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIESNIES) ) Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfMMPIfM)) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCARNCAR))

MODEL EVALUATIONMODEL EVALUATIONLITTLE FALLS, NYLITTLE FALLS, NY

EVALUATION OVER REGIONEVALUATION OVER REGION

MODEL PROJECTIONSMODEL PROJECTIONS

Description of model inputs Description of model inputs (greenhouse gas concentrations)(greenhouse gas concentrations)

Projected climateProjected climate

IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATIONIPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATION

CO2

concentrations

Climatevariables:

Temperature,precipitation,

humidity, winds,etc. Population growth,

economy, behavior, etc.(IPCC “storyline”:

A2, B2, etc.)

CO2

emissions

Carbon Cycle Model Physical climate Model

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

RESULTING CORESULTING CO22 CONCENTRATIONS CONCENTRATIONS

Used by CARA

IPCC (2001)year

PROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NYPROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NY

INFORMATION INFORMATION INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION

Climate & Land UseClimate & Land Use Socio-economic factorsSocio-economic factors Environmental qualityEnvironmental quality

rachael dempsey penn state’s institutes of the environment [email protected]

Documents

nations population

cara region