radiation detection materials markets: 2015-2022 sample chapter

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n-tech Research Report

Radiation DetectionMaterials Markets2012-2022

2n-tech research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058Phone: 804-938-0030

Email: [email protected]: www.ntechresearch.com

Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.



Table of Contents6 List of Exhibits8 Executive Summary 8 E.1 Radiation Detection for Security and Health 8 E.1.1 How Radiation Detection Materials Can Improve Homeland Security 9 E.1.2 Addressing Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons 11 E.1.3 Accelerating Development of Medical Imaging and the Need for New Materials 12 E.1.4 Industrial Applications Impacting Health and Safety 13 E.2EffectofNewerMaterialsontheRadiationDetectionMaterialsMarket 13 E.2.1ContinuingEffortstoReplaceHelium-3forNeutronDetection 14 E.2.2 Improving Performance and Reducing Cost of Scintillation and Semiconductor Materials 15 E.3 Key Firms to Watch 15 E.3.1 Scintillation Materials Suppliers 17 E.3.2 Semiconductor Materials and Detector Suppliers 18 E.3.3 Companies Further up the Supply Chain 18 E.3.4 Role of Governments and National Laboratories 20 E.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Radiation Detection Materials 20 E.4.1 Summary by Material Class 20 E.4.2 Summary by Application

23 Chapter One: Introduction 23 1.1 Background to this Report 23 1.1.1 Changes since Last Report 25 1.1.2MaterialsforDetectingX-raysandGammaRays 26 1.1.3 Materials for Neutron Detection 26 1.1.4 Homeland Security and Medical Imaging Markets Driving Materials Requirements 28 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report 29 1.3 Methodology of this Report 30 1.4 Plan of this Report

32 ChapterTwo:TrendsinMaterialsforRadiationDetection



32 2.1ShiftingAwayfromLegacyMaterials 32 2.1.1 The Future of Sodium Iodide 33 2.1.2 Use of Plastic Scintillation Materials 35 2.1.3 The High Cost of HPGe 36 2.2CommercializationofNewerScintillationMaterials 37 2.2.1CesiumandStrontiumIodide-basedMaterials 39 2.2.2 CLYC (Cs2LiYCl6) and Related Materials 40 2.2.3 Lanthanum and Cerium Bromide 42 2.2.4 Fluorides and Oxides 42 2.2.5 LSO and other Silicates 45 2.2.6Yttrium-basedCeramics 46 2.2.7 Nanomaterials and other Next Generation Alternatives 47 2.3 Development of Alternative Semiconductor Radiation Detection Materials 47 2.3.1 Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) and Related Materials 49 2.3.2 Other Compound Semiconductors 50 2.4Replacing3-HeliumforNeutronDetection 50 2.4.1Boron-basedMaterials 51 2.4.2Lithium-basedMaterials 52 2.4.3 CLYC 52 2.4.4 Other Options 54 2.4.5 Fast Neutron Detection 54 2.5 The Radiation Detection Materials Supply Chain 54 2.5.1EffectofRawMaterialSupplyandDemandontheMarketforDetection Materials 58 2.5.2 Impact of Materials Trends on Raw Materials Suppliers 59 2.5.3EffectiveStrategiesforScintillatorCrystalManufacturers 61 2.5.4 How Materials Changes Impact Equipment and Device Manufacturers 63 2.6 Key Points from this Chapter

65 Chapter Three: Key Applications for Radiation Detection Materials 65 3.1 Health and Security Applications Driving Materials Development 67 3.2 Homeland Security 68 3.2.1 Cargo Scanning and Securing Ports of Entry 70 3.2.2 Securing Cities and Keeping People Safe 70 3.3 Military Applications 70 3.3.1 Portable Detectors



71 3.3.2 Opportunities for Larger Scale Systems 72 3.3.3 Nuclear Weapons 73 3.4NuclearPowerPlants 75 3.5 Medical Imaging 75 3.5.1 PET and SPECT Scanning 77 3.5.2X-RayImaging 78 3.5.3 Radiation Therapy and Other Applications 79 3.6 Industrial Applications Related to Health and Safety 80 3.7 Oil and Mining Industry 81 3.8ScientificandResearchNeeds 81 3.8.1High-EnergyPhysics 82 3.8.2 Pharmaceutical Industry 83 3.9 Key Points from this Chapter

84 Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for Radiation Detection Materials 84 4.1 Forecasting Methodology 85 4.2 Forecasts of Scintillation Materials 98 4.3 Forecasts of Semiconductor Materials 101 4.4ForecastsofNeutronDetectionMaterials 104 4.5 Forecasts by Radiation Detection Application 112 Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report

113 About the Author



14 ExhibitE-1:WorldwideRadiationDetectionMaterialVolumeandRevenue, by Material Type 16 ExhibitE-2:WorldwideRadiationDetectionMaterialsRevenue,byApplication, $ Millions 38 Exhibit2-1:ComparisonofFluoride-basedScintillationMaterials39 Exhibit2-2:ComparisonofOxide-basedScintillationMaterials59 Exhibit2-3:CompaniesSupplyingScintillationMaterialsandDetectors65 Exhibit3-1:RadiationDetectionMaterialsandtheirApplications72 Exhibit3-2:WorldwideNuclearWeaponsArsenals73 Exhibit3-3:NuclearPowerPlantsUnderConstructionorPlanned,byRegion76 Exhibit3-4:OpportunitiesforMaterialsinPETandSPECTImaging77 Exhibit3-5:FundingforResearchonScintillatorsforPETandSPECTApplications86 Exhibit4-1:WorldwideScintillationMaterialVolumeandRevenue,byMaterialType89 Exhibit4-2:NaIScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication91 Exhibit4-3:CsICrystalScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication92 Exhibit4-4:CsIThin-FilmScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication94 Exhibit4-5:Lanthanum-basedScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication96 Exhibit4-6:OtherSimpleSaltsScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication98 Exhibit4-7:CLYC-basedScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication100 Exhibit4-8:Oxide-basedScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication102 Exhibit4-9:Silicate-basedScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication104 Exhibit4-10:Yttrium-basedScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication106 Exhibit4-11:PlasticScintillatorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication108 xhibit4-12:NanomaterialsVolumeandRevenue,byApplication109 Exhibit4-13:HPGeVolumeandRevenue,byApplication111 Exhibit4-14:CdTe/CZTVolumeandRevenue,byApplication111 Exhibit4-15:OtherSemiconductorVolumeandRevenue,byApplication113 Exhibit4-16:Revenuefor3HeReplacements,byMaterial,$Millions113 Exhibit4-17:RevenuefromNeutronDetectionMaterialsinVariousApplications, by Material, $ Millions 115 Exhibit4-18:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforDomesticSecurity, by Material, $ Millions 117 Exhibit4-19:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforMilitaryApplications, by Material, $ Millions

List of Exhibits



118 Exhibit4-20:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforNuclearPower, by Material, $ Millions 120 Exhibit4-21:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforMedicalImaging, by Material, $ Millions 121 Exhibit4-22:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforIndustrialApplications, by Material, $ Millions 122 Exhibit4-23:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforOilandMining, by Material, $ Millions 123 Exhibit4-24:RevenuefromRadiationDetectionMaterialsforScientificApplications,by Material, $ Millions 124 Exhibit4-25:RevenuefromScintillatorandSemiconductorMaterialsby Geographical Region, $ Millions 126 Exhibit4-26:RevenuefromMaterialsforNuclearPower,byGeographicalRegion, $ Millions



1.1 Background to this Report

Radiation detection materials suppliers are in a position to both drive future direction and benefit from growth in demand forradiation detection applications. The real question is which materials will see increasing use and which ones will either never become commercialized or will be supplanted by better options.

Scintillation materials remain the most cost-effective option and have sufficientperformance for many applications. Applications that require very high resolution rely on semiconductor materials, typically high-purity germanium (HPGe).Here, because of its high cost and the fact that it needs to operate at cryogenic temperatures, there is a drive to replace HPGe with alternative semiconductor materials that can function at room temperature.

TheabovematerialdetectgammaandX-rayradiation. Neutron detection is a separate category, and has been dominated by 3-Helium (3He). While 3He is an excellentneutron detection material, supplies have been dwindling while costs increase, and effortstoreplaceitwithothermaterialsareaccelerating.

1.1.1 Changes since Last Report

NanoMarkets has not published a

Chapter OneIntroduction



comprehensive report on radiation detection materials since May 2013. The need for materials with higher performance and higher sensitivity at lower cost has not disappeared, but materials development has advanced somewhat in the past two years:

• Since our last report, there has been an increasing interest in materials that can detect both gamma rays and neutrons, promising a potentially cost-effectivedual purpose solution. This has been a goal for many years, but we are reaching a point where realistic solutions are becoming commercially available at a price that could make transitioning over worthwhile.

• Some materials that looked especially promising back in 2013, materials such as strontium iodide, have lost some of their momentum. That is not to say they will not achieve commercial success eventually, just that progress hasn’t come as fast as proponents would have liked.

The drive to discover new scintillation materials continues, but there is a parallel effort on research to improve existingmaterials that appears to be accelerating. Existing materials do not face the same barriers to entry that make introduction of new materials difficult, and materialsuppliers are recognizing opportunities to extend the life span of materials they are already using.

• The increase in need for mobile radiation detection is putting more emphasis on materials that can function in various environmental conditions. Mobile detectors have size and weight limits, which puts a premium on materials that can achieve excellent resolution and yield while using relatively thin crystals.

• The crisis in 3He supplies has been temporarily alleviated somewhat by severaldevelopmentssincemid-2013:

• The U.S. government passed the Helium Stewardship Act in October 2013, which allowed the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to allow helium extraction from reserves in Texas and other locations through 2021, instead of drawing down reserves by 2015 as planned back in 1996 when 3He demand was low.

• U.S.-based Air Products developeda new process that extracts helium from underground carbon dioxide and has built a facility to implement this technology. Its Doe Canyon, Colorado facility is scheduled to open in March 2015 and supposedly will be able to supply helium for at least several decades.

• Countries outside the U.S. have expanded helium production capabilities. New refiningfacilitiesinQatarandAlgeriaareincreasing global supplies.

• Both the U.S. and China are pursuing



efforts to figure out a way to extract3He from the moon, where it is plentiful, and ship it to Earth. This appears to be a long shot that may not be economically worthwhile even if it becomes technically feasible and in any case will take over a decade (and perhaps much longer) to achieve.

That said, the finite supply and increasingcost of 3He remains an issue for anyone looking to buy 3He, and the need to findalternative materials for neutron detection has not abated. Annual global helium production still outstrips demand, and much of production is 4He. Although it is possible to produce 3He from 4He, the process is not cost-effective and has notbeen developed on an industrial scale.

Recent changes may have bought some much-needed time for the radiationdetection materials industry to develop replacement materials. But there is still a sense of urgency, since we certainly can’t wait until 3He is extracted from the moon.

1.1.2 Materials for Detecting X-rays and Gamma Rays

Much of the focus in the radiation detection industryisonmaterialsthatcandetectX-rayand gamma radiation. While scintillation materials are currently the only practical solution from a cost perspective for security and medical applications requiring large area or array detectors, improvements in resolution, efficiency, sensitivity, and

decay time are all desirable in order to fully meet the performance demands of today’s applications.

Sodium iodide (NaI), which has been around for 50 years, remains the dominant scintillation material. Other simple salts are also used commercially, such as cesium iodide (CsI), which has seen increased adoption forX-ray imaging. Inaddition,avariety have been used as scintillators in positron emission tomography (PET) for manyyears,beginningwiththallium-dopedNaI and bismuth germanate (BGO). Most systems today use lutetium silicate (LSO) or lutetium yttrium orthosilicate (LYSO).

Dozens of materials have promising scintillation properties and have been the subject of research in recent years. The challenge is that in order to displace existing materials, modest improvements inpropertiesarenotsufficienttoconvinceequipment and instrumentation makers to buy them. In the absence of government regulations demanding phasing out of certain materials, new materials will need to show dramatic improvements without anysignificantincreaseincost.Thisisaveryhigh bar.

Most potential replacements are not yet there, but NanoMarkets believes we may see some subtle shifts in demand over the next three to eight years. For example, Thermo Fisher has come out with a handheld isotope detector that uses CLYC for neutron detection. Also, Kromek just announced



newordersforitsCZT-baseddetectorsformedical and security applications, to be filledbyearly2016.

1.1.3 Materials for Neutron Detection

The radiation detection industry has a desperate need to find new neutrondetection materials to replace 3He. While 3He is an excellent neutron detector, global stocks of 3He are dwindling, because the major supply of 3He is generated as a byproduct of tritium production in nuclear weapons manufacturing. With the end of the cold war, demand now greatly outstrips production.

Production of new 3He from new tritium production is unfeasible, as it is estimated that costs would be around $20,000/liter. Another possible new source would be extraction of 3He from natural gas fields that are rich in helium. 3He existsat 0.2 ppm in helium (4He) and can be extracted by gaseous diffusion; however,construction of a plant to implement such technology would cost in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. The U.S. government started rationing 3He in June 2010. Many physics applications, such as neutron scattering facilities, have also been informed that they must find alternativeneutron detection technologies. The need for alternative materials to replace 3He in neutron detectors continues and remains a major priority and opportunity for suppliers.

1.1.4 Homeland Security and Medical Imaging Markets Driving Materials Requirements

Research into developing new materials for radiation detection and improving existing materials is driven by the needs of two sectors: homeland security and medicalimaging.

Homeland security: The recently proposed FY2016 Federal Budget for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) includes several increases that are relevant to the radiation detectionmaterialsmarket:

• IncreasedDomestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) budget of 17 percentcompared to FY2015, including $45 million to buy radiological and nuclear detection equipment for portal monitors at points of entry

• Funding of $10 million toward systems to detect nuclear and radiological materials within metropolitan areas as part of the government’s “Securing the Cities” program

• Funding within Science and Technology to support DHS efforts in cargo andpassenger screening and border security

• Customs and Border Protection (CBP) funding of $85 million for X-ray andgamma ray imaging systems for cargo



inspection, some of which is replacing over 5000 aging systems

At the time of publication, we do not know how much of this proposed budget will be approved, but the increases give a sense of the opportunity for expanding funding going toward radiation detection equipment and instrumentation, which will require an accompanying investment in materials. There are also opportunities for improved materials in several security-relatedapplications: • Shipping—The rate of false positive

alarms due to mischaracterization of NORMs as active threats is unacceptably high, resulting in significant costs.Replacing older equipment using detection materials based on PVT(polyvinyl toluene) or NaI with equipment using newer materials will be cost-effective so long as the newmaterials do not command too much of a price premium.

• Personal protection—First responders already carry Personal Radiation Detectors (PRDs). PRDs represent a potential mass market, beyond personnel working in national security, if prices can be reduced to acceptable levels.

• Isotope identification—RadioactiveIsotopeIdentificationDevices(RIIDs)aredevices that are larger than PRDs and

include a spectrometer that can identify specific isotopes. There is a need formaterials that can serve this function at a lower cost than existing solutions.

• Active detection—Current detection technology relies on passively detecting radioactive materials. Active interrogation methods, which bombard a source with gamma rays or neutrons and examine the interactions, may require different detection materials.This is an important area for research.

• Medical Imaging: Trends in medical imaging that may affect detectionmaterialsdevelopmentinclude:

• Computer tomography (CT)—increased insurancecoverageforCT-basedcancerscreening, proposed in November 2014, is likely to lead to an increase in demand. Monitoring of radiation dosage is important in order to limit radiation exposure during screening.

• Time-of-flight techniques—PositionEmission Tomography (PET) scanners with time-of-flight (ToF) capabilityenable3-dimensionalimaging.Thisnewgeneration of PET scanners requires scintillators with very fast decay times. Lanthanum bromide is one promising option.

Growth in hybrid diagnostic imaging—this includes systems that combine PET with CT or MRI scanning.



• Accelerated adoption of digital imaging, which is rapidly replacing film-basedsystems. Digital detectors based on CsI and amorphous silicon (a-Si) offerbetter contrast and resolution than the phosphor systems they are replacing, and costs are coming down.

• Improvements in radiation detection materials can enable machines with better performance. Such improvements include increased signal-to-noise ratiosto improve sensitivity, allowing diagnosis and treatment using lower doses of radiation. Also, improved timing and energy resolution, which is important for increasing adoption of ToF techniques.

The National Institute of Health (NIH) in the U.S. is currently funding a variety of research projects designed to look into new scintillation materials for medical imaging, especially geared at improving the performance of PET and SPECT systems. Though it will likely be many years, if ever, before these are implemented in commercial systems, it points to future diversification of detection materials forthese applications.

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report

The objective of this report is to give a detailed analysis of the current and emerging trends in radiation detection materials. It is important to note that we

cover detection of radioactive isotopes, not general electromagnetic radiation such as infrared radiation.

This report includes some discussion of radiation detection equipment and instrumentation, but only in the context of how radiation detection materials are being used and how application needs and improvements in materials intersect. Other NanoMarkets reports delve into radiation detection equipment in detail.

This report evaluates specific radiationdetection materials that are commercially available as well as those in development that are likely to see commercial use in the foreseeable future, and examines how end uses for these materials are evolving. Our coverage includes the following classes of materials:

• Scintillation materials—from simple salts such as NaI and CsI to newer materials, including CLYC, materials based on rare earth metals, and next generation alternatives

• Semiconductor materials, including both simple and compound semiconductors, with a focus on the trend toward materials that function at room temperature

• Neutron detection materials and the drive to replace 3He with materials that are more readily available

As the focus of this report is markets,



we do not delve deeply into the physics behind the use of each material as a radiation detector. We discuss materials properties and scientific principles only tothe extent necessary to explain choices of specificmaterialsforgivenapplicationsandrationale behind the prospects for a given material.

This report discusses applications in industries that are driving growth in materials development, as well as other industries that are experiencing slower growth but also use nontrivial quantities of radiation detection materials. We cover the followingapplicationcategories:

• Homeland security, including border protection, transportation, and protecting individual personnel

• Medical applications, including both X-ray and nuclear imaging as well asradiotherapy

• Nuclear applications, both securing and monitoring nuclear power plants and addressing nuclear weapons proliferation

• Military applications, which have some overlap with homeland security but also differingrequirements

• Industrial applications, especially those thataffecthealthandsafetyofworkersand the public

• The oil and mining industry, particularly oil well logging

• Scientific and research uses, includinghigh energy physics at national laboratories

• Much of the focus is on the first twoapplications, as these are the ones primarily driving growth in the radiation detection materials markets at the present time, but NanoMarkets believes that all these applications provide potential revenue streams for suppliers of radiation detection materials.

1.3 Methodology of this Report

The general methodology for this report is the same as in all NanoMarkets reports. We have synthesized data from a wide variety of sources to provide a sense of what radiation detection materials are in commercial use today and how they are being used. We have then identifiedandanalyzed the trends inthe industry with the goal of showing where the main opportunities will be found over the next eight years.

We rely on both primary and secondary sources for our information. Primary sources include phone and email interviews with representatives from a variety of organizations.Theseinclude:

• Companies that supply radiation



detection materials in the form of crystals or scintillators

• Companies that supply raw materials to the scintillator manufacturers

• Instrumentation providers, to get their perspective on materials needs

• National Laboratories that are doing research into radiation detection materials

• Secondary research comes from company websites, press releases, government and industry reports, trade press articles, and white papers.

We have also taken some background information from previously published NanoMarkets reports on radiation detection. In all cases we reevaluate existing information in light of the current marketandadjustitappropriatelytoreflectcurrent conditions and NanoMarkets’ sense of where the industry is headed. Specifically,wehaveexaminedthefollowingNanoMarketsreports:

• Radiation Detection Materials Markets–2013

• Radiation Detection Markets: 2014–2021

• Radiation Detection in Military and Security Markets – 2015 to 2022

• Radiation Detection in Medical and HealthcareMarkets–2015-2022

The forecasting approach in this report uses a model that is similar to those in all NanoMarkets reports, taking into account materials pricing, addressable markets for each material, and estimated market penetration.Furtherdetailsonthespecificforecasting methodology for this report appear in Chapter Four. We note, however, that our forecasting approach is differentfrom some of our recent reports in the radiation detection sector.

1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two of this report discusses trends in materials for radiation detection, beginning with trends toward replacing legacy materials such as sodium iodide with newer materials that can provide improved isotope identification for today’smost demanding applications. The chapter examines the status and prospects of a large variety of possible scintillation and semiconductor materials. It also looks at lower cost alternatives to HPGe and at replacements for 3He for neutron detection.

Chapter Two continues with a discussion of the supply chain for radiation detection materials and how materials trends impact suppliers. We evaluate the prospects for various materials suppliers as the radiation detection market grows, with a particular emphasis on suppliers that are at the



forefront of developing and commercializing new materials and manufacturing processes.

Chapter Three focuses on applications. We examine industries such as medical and security that are driving the market for new detection materials, as well as slower growing industries that still play an important role in the overall radiation detection materials market.

ChapterFourpresentsNanoMarkets’eight-year forecasts for revenue from radiation detection materials. We provide granular forecasts, breaking the total market down by type of material, end application, and geographic location.

radiation detection materials markets: 2015-2022 sample chapter

Technology

semiconductor materials

related materials

new materials

materials requirements

glen allen

neutron detection

homeland security

cost of scintillation