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R. Popper
(2010)
Foresight experiences and output
in Europe and Latin America
Rafael [email protected] - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
www.iknowfutures.eu
R. Popper
(2010)
What is Foresight?
R. Popper
(2010) What is foresight?
Prospective
&
Futures
Foresight
Participation
&
Networking
Policy-making
&
Planning
• Broadly speaking…
• Foresight is not about
– forecasting by experts
• Foresight is more about
– sharing a vision and/or a set of objectives(for our children‟s future?)
– promoting trandisciplinarity research
– engaging key stakeholders, including decision- and policy-makers
– drawing upon and creating knowledge networks
– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making
– organising a long term thinking process Foresight is
a process
R. Popper
(2010)
Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy.
The main focus of activity has been at the national level. Governments have sought to set priorities, to build networks between science and industry and, in some cases, to change their research system and administrative culture. Foresight has been used as a set of technical tools, or as a way to encourage more structured debate with wider participation leading to the shared understanding of long-term issues.
R. Popper
(2010) The Many Faces of Foresight
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others 2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
European foresight is arguably more diverse and fragmented both in
terms of the actors involved and the methodology applied than in the
USA.
Foresight is characterised by:
• long-term orientation
• use of a range of formal tools & techniques for long-term analyses
• involvement of a wide pool of expertise and stakeholders
• crossing disciplinary boundaries and professional compartments
Foresight Generations:
• 1st Generation: dynamics of technology
• 2nd Generation: technology and markets
• 3rd Generation: technology and markets + social dimension
• 4th Generation: distributed role in the STI system
• 5th Generation: combined with other strategic fora
Rationales to argue the case for, and inform the design and use of, foresight
• Rationale 1: directing or prioritising investment in STI
• Rationale 2: building new networks & linkages around a common vision
• Rationale 3: extending the breadth of knowledge & visions of the future
• Rationale 4: bringing new actors into the strategic debate
• Rationale 5: improving policy-making and strategy formation
1
Ian Miles, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
R. Popper
(2010) From Futures to Foresight
Foresight is a set of approaches:
• Policy-making approaches ( longer-term perspective to strategic planning, allowing
flexibility and preparedness to deal with uncertainty, disruptive events and innovations,
enabling greater integration and “joining-up” of discrete and compartmentalised lines of
action.
• Participative approaches involve interaction of wider ranges of stakeholders and experts in
envisioning the future. This reflects several goals: enlarging the knowledge base,
engagement, legitimacy; and enlistment, the mobilisation of those involved in the process as
actors that can embed the messages of the programme into their own
organisations/practices.
• Prospective approaches: matching of (present and forecast) opportunities and capabilities,
framing a vision of desirable and feasible futures.
2
Ian Miles
Policy-making
Participative ProspectiveFORESIGHT
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight Methodology3
Rafael Popper
Pre-Foresight
Rationales
Sponsor(s)
Objectives
Orientation
Resources
- Core team *
- Time
- Money
- Infrastructure
- Cultural
- Political
Approaches
Time horizon
Methodology
Workplan
- Activities
- Tasks
- Deliverables
Scope
- Context
- Coverage
Recruitment
Project team *
- skills
Partners
Sub-contractors
Steering Group
Experts
- Thematic
- Sectoral
- Regional
- National
- International
Champions
- Thematic
- …
International
Panels
Methodologist
Facilitators
Rapporteurs
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge/visions through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 4: shaping the future through
strategic planning
Step 5: evaluating
Generation
Existing knowledge
is amalgamated,
analysed and
synthesised
Tacit knowledge is
codified
New knowledge is
generated (e.g.
elucidation of
emerging issues,
creation of new
visions and images
of the future, etc.)
Action
Advising
- Strategies
- Policy Options
- Recommendations
- …
Transforming
- Networking
- Policy-making
- Decision-making
- …
Renewal
Learning
- Process
- Products
Evaluation
- Impacts
- Efficiency
- Appropriateness
Dissemination
- Shared Visions
- Foresight Culture
- …
KNOWLEDGE
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight Methodology3
Rafael Popper
Pre-Foresight
Rationales
Sponsor(s)
Objectives
Orientation
Resources
- Core team *
- Time
- Money
- Infrastructure
- Cultural
- Political
Approaches
Time horizon
Methodology
Workplan
- Activities
- Tasks
- Deliverables
Scope
- Context
- Coverage
Recruitment
Project team *
- skills
Partners
Sub-contractors
Steering Group
Experts
- Thematic
- Sectoral
- Regional
- National
- International
Champions
- Thematic
- …
International
Panels
Methodologist
Facilitators
Rapporteurs
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 4: shaping the future through
strategic planning
Step 5: evaluating
Generation
Existing knowledge
is amalgamated,
analysed and
synthesised
Tacit knowledge is
codified
New knowledge is
generated (e.g.
elucidation of
emerging issues,
creation of new
visions and images
of the future, etc.)
Action
Advising
- Strategies
- Policy Options
- Recommendations
- …
Transforming
- Networking
- Policy-making
- Decision-making
- …
Renewal
Learning
- Process
- Products
Evaluation
- Impacts
- Efficiency
- Appropriateness
Dissemination
- Shared Visions
- Foresight Culture
- …
KNOWLEDGE
The Foresight
Diamond
R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)
Methods relying on the originality
and inventiveness of very skilled
individuals & their tacit knowledge
Methods relying heavily
on codified knowledge,
information, data,
indicators, etc.
Methods relying on
tacit knowledge of
people with
privileged access to
relevant information
or with accumulated
knowledge
Methods
relying
heavily on the
participation
and shared
views of
experts and
non-experts
R. Popper
(2010)
Foresight is not mere fashion
R. Popper
(2010)
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others 2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Evolution of Programmes/Exercises
R. Popper
(2010)
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others 2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Evolution of Programmes/Exercises
We have mapped
(i.e. scanned & analysed)
these and many more experiences…
R. Popper
(2010)
EFMN EFP Mapping Foresight in the world
• EFMN (now EFP) Mapping Foresight work has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world
• The mapping has been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions
2005 2006 20072004
437cases mapped
> 800
identified
767cases mapped
> 1400
identified
100cases mapped
846cases mapped
> 1600
identified
2008
> 1000cases mapped
> 2000
Identified
2009
Mapping
Foresight
Key Lessons
+
Findings
Introducing
networking
(SNA) and
systemic
analyses
into
Foresight
(Foresight Ark)
2010-2012
Mapping
Foresight
&
Forecasting
Introducing
Wild Cards &
Weak Signals
(WI-WE)
systems
+
Web 2.0 scanning
+
Bottom-up
Evaluation
R. Popper
(2010)
So, what do we know about Foresight
experiences and practice?
R. Popper
(2010) Over 2000 foresight studies mapped
0
200
400
600
800
Inte
rnatio
nal
Euro
pe
Latin A
merica
No
rth A
merica
Asia
Oceania
Levels 0&1 Levels 2&3
+
R. Popper
(2010)
Foresight in Europe
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Belgium
• Sponsors: Délégation à l'aménagement du
territoire et à l'action régionale (DATAR);
Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry; the
Ministry of Defence; the Conseil économique et
social régional (CESR-Centre); among others
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
developing a long-term vision on the
opportunities and threats for the Flemish region
(broad socio-economic orientation).
2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g.
investigating which energy system the Flanders
region would need in 30-50 years and how such
a system could be achieved.
3. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. understanding the meaning of
nanotechnology for improving the
competitiveness of the country.
4. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
developing methodologies and tools to assess
the impact of flood risk reduction measures.
5. Network building: e.g. organising a network of
competent suppliers fitted to the companies‟
needs and a framework for innovation.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Denmark
• Sponsors: Ministry of Science, Technology and
Innovation (VTU); the Ministry of Trade and
Industry; the Ministry of Environment; the
Environmental Protection Agency; the Risø
National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy; and
the Nordic Innovation Centre, among others.
1. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. analysing environmental potentials and
risks related to three generic technologies
(nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT) within
the coming 15-20 years.
2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
promoting strategies for sustainable
development in coastal areas.
3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. providing decision
support for companies and research institutes
in defining R&D priorities and assisting
governmental decision-makers in making
effective framework policies for the introduction
of hydrogen energy.
4. Network building: e.g. creating a framework for
an open debate between experts, politicians and
stakeholders in the energy sector.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Finland
• Sponsors: National Fund for Research and
Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture
and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament;
and the National Technology Agency of Finland
(TEKES), among others.
1. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. facilitating a multifaceted discussion about
the potential of new technologies in supporting
the independent living of elderly people.
2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
exploring the future development trends in
knowledge intensive business services (KIBS)
as a whole and by sub-sectors.
3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping regional
bodies to prioritise innovations about
knowledge society developments.
4. Network building: e.g. generating information on
long-term development views for decision-
making by regional, sub-regional and local
actors.
5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
influencing the educational system by
promoting the capabilities for reacting to
qualifications needs.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in France
• Sponsors: National Fund for Research and
Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture
and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament;
and the National Technology Agency of Finland
(TEKES), among others.
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
determining how France can distinguish itself
and stay among the most competitive and
attractive countries through technology.
2. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. detecting weak signals of disruptive events,
to forecast next technological breakdowns and
to provide a continuous technology watch on
key subjects for the micro/nanotechnology
community.
3. Public engagement: e.g. reviewing and
launching a national debate on the challenges of
the French Research and Innovation System.
4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. analysing
supply and demand of technologies for France
in order to help firms to have a better vision of
their technological preferences.
5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
developing, piloting & demonstrating the value
of „light‟ and flexible regional foresight methods.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Germany
• Sponsors: Federal Ministry of Education and
Research (BMBF); Bavarian State Ministry of
Sciences, Research and the Arts; government of
Rheinland-Pfalz; companies like Siemens AG;
among others.
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
analysing the strategies that regions should
implement to become future-oriented.
2. Public engagement: e.g. picking up values and
ideals of the population and implementing
concrete measures in order to overcome gaps
due to different mentalities within the country.
3. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. analysing the relevance of applications and
innovations of nanotechnology in the health
sector.
4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. introducing new
perspectives into the research agenda of the
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
(BMBF) by adding to the traditional mechanisms
for agenda-setting and prioritisation.
5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
developing methodologies and tools to assess
the impact of flood risk reduction measures and
scenarios.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Italy
• Sponsors: Ministry of Defence; Lombardia
Regional Government; Milan Regional
Government; Regional Government of Trentino;
and the Chamber of Commerce; among others.
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
developing a SWOT analysis of the Trentino
region, its potential and future vision.
2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. looking at
the upcoming changes for manufacturing
industry in various regions in order to prepare
SMEs for the future.
3. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. evaluating the national interest and the
scientific and industrial feasibility of developing
new emerging technologies in selected areas.
4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping public
decision-makers set priorities in a rational way.
5. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
providing socio-economic perspectives using
foresight techniques.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in the Netherlands
• Sponsors: Centraal Plan Bureau (CPB); Sociaal
Cultureel Planbureau (SCP); Ministry of Social
Affairs and Employment; Ministry of Economic
Affairs; Ministry of Education, Culture and
Science; Ministry of Internal Affairs; the
Provinces of Limburg, North-Brabant and
Utrecht; among others.
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
identifying future trends in agri-business
generated by internationalisation.
2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. articulating
major knowledge and innovation challenges in
rural areas.
3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. Identifying priorities
in national innovation areas for the Dutch
economy based on the innovation and research
portfolios of SenterNovem and NWO (public
funding agencies).
4. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. identifying technology fields that are likely
to be of strategic importance to business and
industry in the next 10 years.
5. Public engagement: e.g. stimulating public
discussion on a sustainable future for Brabant.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Norway
• Sponsors: Norwegian Research Council (NRC);
Nordic Innovation Centre; Norwegian Institute
for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR) and the
Drammen Municipalities; among others.
1. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
identifying „best practices‟ in the Nordic
countries for technology foresight and similar
methodologies for prioritising in S&T.
2. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research
priorities and policy recommendations related to
advanced materials technology;
nanotechnology; oil and energy; and
aquaculture sectors.
3. Public engagement: e.g. developing an arena in
which different stakeholders and actors can
reflect together on future options for a region.
4. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
developing a strategic plan for the development
of Drammen Kommune over the coming years.
5. Articulating supply and demand: e.g.
demonstrating the energy and power that will be
consumed within buildings in 2030 (scenario
approaches show different averages of energy
standards in new and existing residential
buildings).
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Spain
• Sponsors: Ministry of S&T; the Ministry of
Industry; Ministry of Education; Guipuzkoa
Government; Junta de Castilla la Mancha; and
Galicia Regional Government; among others.
1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
analysing the current state of key sectors in
Spain (e.g. civil construction, chemical,
transport, design, etc.) in order to assess
actions in the next 15 years.
2. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. defining key technologies in the materials
sector that will influence both energy and
transport industries in the next 15 years.
3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research
priorities in biotechnology in accordance with
the guidelines of the Regional Plan for R&D.
4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying
new demands on tourism at a global level over
for the next 10 years.
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in the United Kingdom
• Sponsors: British Council; Defra; the
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI);
Department of Transport; Government Office for
Science (former OST); and the UK Royal
Academy of Engineers; among others.
1. Analysing the future potential of technologies:
e.g. exploring the implications of future
information technologies in areas such as
identity and authenticity, surveillance, system
robustness, security and information assurance.
2. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.
producing a challenging and long-term (30-100
years) vision for the future of flood and coastal
defence.
3. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.
identifying where foresight could add the
greatest value, and helping generate a foresight
culture.
4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying
key areas of long-term opportunity, assessing
these against UK capabilities, and agreeing a
plan of action to exploit these areas.
5. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying priorities
for public and private R&D spending.
R. Popper
(2010)
Foresight in Latin America
R. Popper
(2010) Historical landmarks (1970s influence)
• Bariloche Group(Argentina)
• Javier Barros Sierra Foundation (Mexico)
• CENDES(Venezuela)
• S&T Observatory(Cuba)
• S&T Office COLCIENCIAS(Colombia)
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC
• TFP created in 1999
• Main actors
– UNIDO
– Governmental agencies and departments
• Main objectives
– Foresight culture
– High-level political awareness
– Industrial & technological development
• Main activities
– Capacity building / Training courses
– Seminars / conferences
– Sectoral / industrial exercises
– Publications
• Main countries
– Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Argentina
• TFP created in 2000
• Main actors
– Secretary for Science & Technology (SECyT) and UNIDO
• Main activities
– Learning from international experiences
– diagnostic studies in 3 sectors:• Biotechnology
• Chemical
• Textile industries
– Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001)
– Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015
• started in October 2003, completed in 2005
• coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP)
• Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas
• Over 4,000 people involved
• Main goals:
– To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI
– To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities
– To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007
– To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Chile
• TFP Created in 2001
• Main actor
– Ministry of Economy
• Main objectives
– discovery pathways toward a desired future
– identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement.
• Main methods
– Brainstorming
– Delphi
• Main activities
– „e-ducation industry‟: ICT applied to Education
– aquaculture industry
– wine production and exports
– biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture
– biotechnology applied to forest industry
– the Chilean software industry.
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Cuba
• Main actor
– Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT)
• Main objectives
– Monitoring emerging technologies
– developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors
– developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed to reactive
• Main methods
– Technology watch (trends & disruptions)
– Brainstorming
– Delphi
• Main activities
– Health
– Biotechnology
– Information technology
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Peru
• Main actors
– UNIDO since 2001
– CONCYTEC since 2002
– Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002
• Main objectives
– Build foresight capabilities
– Support exercises in strategic sectors
– Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners
• Main methods
– Brainstorming
– SWOT
– Scenarios
– Cross-impact
• Main activities
– textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Uruguay
• Main actors
– Presidency
– UNIDO (2000)
– Various ministries
• Main objectives
– competitive industrialization of the country
– integration of knowledge in the value chain
• Main methods
– Brainstorming
– Surveys
– Panels
– Delphi
– Scenarios & recommendations
• Main activities
– Energy
– Transport and logistic
– Biotechnology & agriculture
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Venezuela
• Main actors
– MCT
– MPD
– CENDES
– IESA
– PDVSA
– LUZ, ULA, UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA
• Main objectives
– Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises
– Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological sovereignty
• Main methods
– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews
• Main activities
– Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry; Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011
– National Plan for STI 2005-2030
• Main actors
– FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities
• Main objectives:
– To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders
– To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people
– To promote a selective assimilation of technologies
– To promote pertinent technological developments
– To build S&T networks on priority areas
– To create and strengthen R&D centres
– To promote priority research areas
– To build S&T capabilities Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Foresight in Brazil
• Main actors
– MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq
– UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others
– CGEE
• Main objective
– To inform both government and industry about possible impacts of S&T trends
• Main methods
– Brainstorming
– Prioritisation workshops and surveys
– Delphi
– Scenarios & cross-impact
• Main activities
– Brazil 2020
– MST / PROSPECTAR
– MDIC / BTFP
– NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos
– CGEE activities
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010)
• Main actors– Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA
– UNIVALLE, Externado
– CAF, CAB, UNIDO
• Main objectives– Building capabilities & foresight culture
– Fund and execute exercises
• Main methods– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact
– Scenarios & recommendations
• Main activities– Electric Sector
– Food Packaging Sector
– Lacteous Sector
– Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley
– Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander
– Making Cartagena a tourist destiny
– Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains
– Among others…
• Evaluation– The first Latin American Foresight Programme to be evaluated
Foresight in Colombia
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Highlights of Latin American Foresight
• Foresight entered the LA policy environment as a tool for anticipating possible futures
• However, there have been many interpretations and uses.
– Some refer to traditional futures studies
– Some focus on technology assessment
– Many focus on the French „prospective tool box‟
– And recently, in part due to international initiatives – such as the UNIDO‟s Technology Foresight Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNIDO TFLAC) and a number of European Commission‟s networks and projects – some countries began to practice foresight as a combination of:
• Prospective approaches
• Participation approaches
• Policymaking approaches
… as a tool for building consensus & shaping the future
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Influence of IGOs
• The role of IGOs have been fundamental for dissemination and capacity building activities:
– UNIDO
– ECLAC
– UNESCO
– Andres Bello Agreement (CAB)
– Andean Development Bank (CAF)
– Organisation of American States (OAS)
– Latin American Economic System (SELA)
– European Union (EU)
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Influence of associations & networks
• The RIAP Network
• The Quo Vadis network
• The S&T for Development (CYTED)
• The Euro-Latin SELF-RULE network
Current practices and exercises are more
characterised by collaborative work between:
– International organisations
– Institutions
– Networks
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) Organisational Forms
Europe• Many national Programmes
• Many networks(mostly EU funded)
• Many exercises (national, international, regional, sectoral and thematic)
• Some specialised centres
S
C
O
P
E
+Networks
Consortiums & Projects
Programmes
(Nationals & Internationals)
-Exercises
(One-off & Sectoral)
Specialised Centres &
Institutions
- +
ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Latin America
• Few National Programmes (Brazil,
Chile, Colombia and Venezuela)
• Few networks
(SELF-RULE, RIAP)
• Many one-off / sectoral exercises
• Few specialised centres
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010) A Panorama of the Latin Experience
CountryState of
Evolution *Level + Focus # Objectives ~
Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P
Bolivia Im Se F/s A
Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P
Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A
Panama Im Se F/s A
Paraguay Im Se F/s A
Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne
Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A
Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P
* State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum
from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I]
+ Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac]
# Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P]
~ Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P]
Source: Popper & Medina (2008)
R. Popper
(2010)Lessons and Key Findings
of Mapping Foresight
Available at:
http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/mapping-foresight
and
http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/efmn-mapping-foresight_en.pdf
R. Popper
(2010) mapping sponsors
• government agencies and departments (or simply „government‟) are
the main sponsors of foresight in all regions, although we can see a
few differences.
– For example, government sponsorship is present in nearly all European
and Latin American cases mapped, but is to some extent less dominant
in North America, Asia and Oceania.
R. Popper
(2010) mapping target audiences
• Broadly speaking, there is no great variation, government agencies and departments are the main target groups, regardless of the region.
• The most remarkable results are the relatively large numbers of research and business community targets – far more than there are sponsors. This basically indicates that public administrations often sponsor studies targeted at these other groups. But also governments are among target groups more often than they are among sponsors, suggesting that other sponsors could be using foresight exercises to shape public policy agendas.
R. Popper
(2010) mapping time horizons
• Most exercises are looking 10 to 20 years ahead into the future. With the majority of mapped exercises being initiated in the late 1990s or early 2000s, our analyses are focusing on early 21st Century foresight practices.
• The figure also shows that Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania have a more strategic attitude towards the far future(e.g. 30, 50, 100 years ahead).
R. Popper
(2010) mapping territorial scale
• For all world regions, the national level is by far the most important. As policy-making is still predominantly carried out at this level, this result should come as little surprise. The remaining foresight initiatives are more or less equally distributed over the other territorial scales, although there are some significant differences between regions.
• Sub-national exercises are found most frequently in Europe– possibly reflecting long-term trends of regionalisation in many European countries – closely followed by Latin America.
R. Popper
(2010) mapping socio-economic sectors
R. Popper
(2010) mapping outputs
• The results shows the popularity of some
common codified outputs.
R. Popper
(2010) mapping methods
• The results indicate that some methods are very widely used across the world; such is the case for:
– expert panels,
– literature review,
– scenarios
– trend extrapolatio.
R. Popper
(2010)
Other key lessons about
Foresight practices and methodologies
R. Popper
(2010)
See Popper (2008), “How are foresight methods selected?”, Foresight, Volume 10, 2008, issue 6
• First argument
– methods are chosen based on their „„intrinsic attributes‟‟
• their nature
– Qualitative
– Quantitative
– Semi-quantitative
• their capabilities, i.e. the ability to gather or process information
based on:
– Evidence
– Expertise
– Interaction
– Creativity
• Second argument
– methods are chosen based on fundamental elements and
conditions influencing the foresight process;
in other words, foresight process needs matter.
How are foresight methods selected?
R. Popper
(2010)
Two questions related to the intrinsic attributes of methods:
1. How is selection influenced by the nature of methods?
2. How is selection influenced by the capabilities of methods?
Nine questions related to the elements of foresight processes:
3. How is selection influenced by the Geo-R&D context?
4. How is selection influenced by the Domain coverage?
5. How is selection influenced by the Territorial scale?
6. How is selection influenced by the Time horizon?
7. How is selection influenced by the Sponsorship?
8. How is selection influenced by the Target groups?
9. How is selection influenced by the Participation scale?
10.How is selection influenced by the Codified outputs?
11.How is selection influenced by the Methods Mix?11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
R. Popper
(2010)
Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative
Methods providing meaning
to events and perceptions.Such interpretations tend to be
based on subjectivity or creativity
often difficult to corroborate (e.g.
brainstorming, interviews)
Methods measuring variables and
apply statistical analyses, using or
generating (hopefully) reliable and
valid data (e.g. economic indicators)
Methods which apply mathematical
principles to quantify subjectivity,
rational judgements and viewpoints
of experts and commentators (i.e.
weighting opinions)
1.Backcasting
2.Brainstorming
3.Citizens panels
4.Conferences/workshops
5.Essays /Scenario writing
6.Expert panels
7.Genius forecasting
8.Interviews
9.Literature review
10.Morphological analysis
11.Relevance trees /logic charts
12.Role play / Acting
13.Scanning
14.Scenario /Scenario workshops
15.Science fictioning (SF)
16.Simulation gaming
17.Surveys
18.SWOT analysis
19.Weak signals /Wildcards
20. Benchmarking
21. Bibliometrics
22. Indicators / time series analysis
23. Modelling
24. Patent analysis
25. Trend extrapolation / impact
analysis
26. Cross-impact / structural analysis
27. Delphi
28. Key / Critical technologies
29. Multi-criteria analysis
30. Polling / Voting
31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC
32. Roadmapping
33. Stakeholder analysis
Classifying methods by their nature
Source: Popper (2008)
R. Popper
(2010)
How is selection
influenced by
the intrinsic
nature
of methods ?
very high
influence
Popper (2008)
1
R. Popper
(2010)
(Even if unintentionally!) high influence
Popper (2008)
If you take into account
that, on “average”,
foresight studies use
from 5 to 6 methods
How is selection influenced by their capabilities? 2
R. Popper
(2010)
3 final remarks for better
Foresight experiences and outputs
R. Popper
(2010)
First:Remember
how are foresight methods selected
R. Popper
(2010) Remember how are foresight methods selected
• Two factors with very high influence:
– Intrinsic nature
– Methods Mix
• Three factors with High influence:
– Capability to gather and process knowledge
– Geo-R&D context
– Codified outputs
• Some factors with Moderate influence:
– Participation scale
– Time horizon
– see other factors in figure below…
Popper (2008)
Foresight methods are selected in a
(not always coherent or systematic)
multi-factor process.
So far this process has been
dominated by the intuition, insight,
impulsiveness and – sometimes –
inexperience or irresponsibility of
practitioners and organisers.
R. Popper
(2010)
Second:Recognise the power of
interdisciplinarity
by
interconnecting knowledge
R. Popper
(2010)
A Natural sciences
A04 Chemical Science (key broker)
A06 Biological Science
B Engineering & Technology
B02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food Sciences
B04 Manufacturing Engineering
B09 Environmental Engineering (key broker)
B10 Materials Engineering
B11 Biomedical Engineering
B12 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
B13 Communications Technologies (key broker)
C Medical sciences
C01 Medicine General
C05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences
C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker)
D Agricultural sciences
D01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker)
E Social sciences
E01 Education
E02 Economics
E03 Commerce, management, tourism & services
E04 Policy and Political Science (key broker)
E05 Studies in human society
In a way, research in Social Sciences is the „binder‟ of all
research topics in the foresight exercises. This is quite the
opposite with research within Humanities, which have the
least salient links to other research topics in the exercise.
Recognising „key sub-areas‟
Source: Popper (2009)
Introducing SNA and systemic analyses into our Mapping Foresight work
R. Popper
(2010)
Third:Consider surprising and emerging issues
(Wild Cards & Weak Signals)
R. Popper
(2010)
iKNOW Policy Brief 001 - Major EU state elects neo fascist leader
iKNOW Policy Brief 002 - Transhumanism becomes a significant force
iKNOW Policy Brief 003 - Universal electronic systems breakdown
iKNOW Policy Brief 004 - Wheat crisis hits humans and animals
iKNOW Policy Brief 005 - Floods in Europe cause mass migration
iKNOW Policy Brief 006 - Outburst of the black economy
iKNOW Policy Brief 007 - Pervasive self-diagnosis and self-treatment
iKNOW Policy Brief 008 - Invisibility spray available in Boots
iKNOW Policy Brief 009 - China‟s investment and services great wall
iKNOW Policy Brief 010 - Abrupt disintegration of the Euro Zone
And many more…
What if?
Source: iKNOW – see www.iknowfutures.eu
R. Popper
(2010)
R. Popper
(2010)Exploiting Wild Cards and Weak Signals
Imaginary Call
Thematic area(s)
Research topic
Objective
Expected impact
Importance for Europe
Page 4 of 4
R. Popper
(2010) References and further reading
The Handbook of Technology Foresight (2008)Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles and Rafael Popper (Eds)
From futures to foresight
Ian Miles (Chapter 2)
Foresight methodology
Rafael Popper (Chapter 3)
Foresight in Latin America
Rafael Popper & Javier Medina (Ch. 12)
Foresight, Volume 10, Number 6, 2008Editors‟ introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network
Maurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions
Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
How are foresight methods selected?
Rafael Popper
Mapping Foresight (2009)Rafael Popper
NOTE: This is the final report of the Mapping Workpackage of the EFMN
project. The report will be printed by the European Commission in 2009.
A limited number of hardcopies will be produced but its electronic
versions will be freely available in the EC and EFMN websites.
Policy Transfer and Learning
Luke Georghiou & Jennifer Cassingena Harper (Ch 14)
Evaluation and Impact of Foresight
Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan (Chapter 15)
New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight
Ian Miles et al. (Chapter 16)