railway track systems global market …...railway track systems – global market trends installed...

2017

RAILWAY TRACK SYSTEMS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Installed Base, Projects, Forecasts, Suppliers

Extract from the study

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Railway Track Systems – Global Market Trends 2

RAILWAY TRACK SYSTEMS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Installed Base, Projects, Forecasts, Suppliers SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy in the field of transport technology and economics. Based on close connections to the rail industry, our consultants’ expertise in a wide range of specialist fields, an extensive network of international experts, and powerful homemade tools for data logging, analysis and evaluation, we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the rail and logistics sectors. Growing Asian influence and rather restrained activities on the global commodity markets as well as by public authorities are challenging market development for rail infrastructure, notably track systems. Asian players have increased their influence both in their domestic and in other regions, realising projects as well as acquiring local suppliers. With several major schemes recently completes and some others still under discussion, expansion and modernisation of the networks is increasingly focusing on Asia as well. These trends challenge the traditional Western positions as technology and quality leaders. Answering this challenge appropriately will require deliberate orientation on the global track system markets. In concrete terms, the study includes:

− Present status and expected developments of population, economy, rail transport performance, networks, drivers of the market, their relevance and 5-year-trends, and market volumes in 8 market regions as well as, more precisely, in 24 core markets

− Breakdown of the current market volumes and market development by OEM business (new

development, upgrade) and after sales business (renewal, maintenance), by high-speed rail, conventional railway, metro and light rail transit, and by products (rails, switches/turnouts and crossings, sleepers/crossties, rail fastenings, slab track / ballastless track, ballast, other permanent way products) and services (installation and planning)

− Important current and future infrastruct ure (new development and upgrade) projects.

The results are based on SCI Verkehr’s proven and continuously refined business intelligence infrastructure, including the comprehensive SCI DATABASE as well as a sophisticated methodology of information processing combining external and internal expertise, experience, and technical skills. Their compilation forms a cohesive and meaningful overview of the market for railway track systems today and in the next five years. The study is available in English language from December 2017. Your contact: Ann Kathrin Arntz Ahmed Yasin Phone +49 221 93178 0 Phone +49 221 93178 0 Fax +49 221 93178 78 Fax +49 221 93178 78 Email [email protected] Email [email protected]



CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary: Railway Track Systems – Global Market Trends 2017–2022 ........... 23

1.1 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 23

1.2 Network Development (Installed Base) ..................................................................................... 23

1.3 Market Development .................................................................................................................. 25

2 Objective of the Study and Delimitation of the Railway Market ........................................ 29

2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 29

2.2 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................................... 30

3 Market Analysis Methodology ............................................................................................ 36

3.1 SCI Forecasting Tool ................................................................................................................. 36

3.2 Railway Infrastructure/ System Technology Forecast ............................................................... 39

3.3 After-Sales Market Forecast ....................................................................................................... 40

3.4 Analysis of Drivers in the Railway Industries Market .................................................................. 41

4 Products and Services, Manufacturers and Market Shares .............................................. 45

4.1 Rails ............................................................................................................................................ 45

4.2 Switches/Turnouts and Crossings ............................................................................................. 49

4.3 Sleepers/Crossties ..................................................................................................................... 53

4.4 Rail Fastenings ........................................................................................................................... 57

4.5 Slab Track / Ballastless Track .................................................................................................... 61

4.6 Ballast ......................................................................................................................................... 65

4.7 Other Permanent Way Products ................................................................................................ 68

4.8 Installation .................................................................................................................................. 71

4.9 Planning ..................................................................................................................................... 74

5 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Africa and in the Middle East ........................ 77

5.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................................... 79

5.2 Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................ 80

5.3 Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development 2017–2022 by Subregion ................................. 71

5.4 Core Markets .............................................................................................................................. 83

6 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Asia .............................................................. 102

6.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................................. 104

6.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 104

6.3 Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development 2017–2022 by Subregion ............................... 105

6.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 107



7 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Australia and the Pacific Region ................ 130


7.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 132

7.3 Market Volume 2017 and Markt Development 2017–2022 ...................................................... 133

7.4 Core Market Australia ............................................................................................................... 135

8 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) ....................................................................................................................... 140


8.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 142


8.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 145

9 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Eastern Europe ............................................ 160


9.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 162


9.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 165

10 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in North America ............................................. 180


10.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 183


10.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 186

11 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in South and Central America ......................... 198


11.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 200


11.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 203

12 The Markets for Railway Track Systems in Western Europe ........................................... 213


12.2 Market Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 216


12.4 Core Markets ............................................................................................................................ 219

The study includes 247 pages, 151 figures and 94 tables.



Extract of Selected Contents (…) After completion of several major projects, installed base and market volume are to grow slowly. The largest regional market is Western Europe (followed by Asia and North America). (…) In the transport modes of high speed rail and metro, market growth is partly substantially higher than in conventional railways and light rail transit. Holding 95% of the installed base and four fifths of the market volume, however, conventional railway determines the overall market growth. (…) (…)

Figure 3: World Market – Network Length by Market Region 2016–2023

(…)

Figure 4: World Market – Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022

(…)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Africa / Middle East Asia Australia / Pacific

CIS Eastern Europe North America

South and Central America Western Europe

World Market – Network Length by Market Region 2016–2023 [1,000 route-km]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

0

15

30

45

2017 2022

High Speed Rail Conventional Railway Metro Light Rail Transit

World Market – Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022 [EUR billion]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

+x.x% p.a.

+x.x% p.a.

+x.x% p.a.

+x.x% p.a.

+x.x% p.a.



Market Region (Alphabetical Order)

Average Market Volume

2017 [EUR million]

CAGR 2017–2022

[%]

Africa / Middle East xx +x.x

Asia xx +x.x

Australia / Pacific xx +x.x

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) xx +x.x

Eastern Europe xx +x.x

North America xx +x.x

South and Central America xx +x.x

Western Europe xx +x.x

Total xx +x.x

Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 1: World Market – Market Regions

(…)

Switches/Turnouts and Crossings –

Market Volume and

Market Development by Region

Average Demand Average Market Volume CAGR

2017 [units p.a.]

2017 [EUR million p.a.]

2022 [EUR million p.a.]

2017–2022 [%]

Africa / Middle East xx xx xx +x.x

Asia xx xx xx +x.x

Australia / Pacific xx xx xx +x.x

CIS xx xx xx +x.x

Eastern Europe xx xx xx +x.x

North America xx xx xx +x.x

South and Central America xx xx xx +x.x

Western Europe xx xx xx +x.x

Total xx xx xx +x.x

Demand rounded to 10 units. Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 9: Switches/Turnouts and Crossings – Average Market Volume 2017 and Market Development 2017–2022 by Region (…)



Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

Subregions: – Asian CIS

– European CIS

Core Markets: – Kazakhstan

– Russia

– Ukraine

Market Volume and Market Development Average Market

Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.]

CAGR 2017–2022

[%]

by Product/Service Group

Rails xx +x.x

Switches/Turnouts and Crossings xx +x.x

Sleepers/Crossties xx +x.x

Rail Fastenings xx +x.x

Slab Track xx +x.x

Ballast xx +x.x

Other Permanent Way Products xx +x.x

Installation xx +x.x

Planning xx +x.x

by Transport Mode

High-Speed Rail (HSR) xx +x.x

Conventional Railway (CR) xx +x.x

Metro (M) xx +x.x

Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx +x.x

by Investment Target

New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx +x.x

Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx +x.x

Total xx +x.x

Values rounded to 10 million.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 47: CIS – Track System Market

(…)

Asian CIS (rest)

European CIS (rest)

Core Markets



Czech Republic

Region: Eastern Europe

Subregion: Central Eastern Europe

Socio-Economic Indicators

Territory xx km2

Population 2016 xx million

Population Density 2016 xx inh./ km2

Population Growth 2016–2021 xx % p.a.

Level of Urbanisation 2016 xx %

Credit Rating 2016 xx

Ease of Doing Business Rank 2016 xx

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2016 USD xx billion

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2016 USD xx billion

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2016 Int.-USD xx

GDP Growth (constant prices) 2016–2021 xx % p.a.

Inflation Rate 2016 xx %

Rail Network Data HSR CR M LRT Total Density 2017

(All Rail Transport)

Network Length [route-km] xx xx xx xx xx xx km/100 km2

CAGR 2017–2022 [%] +x.x +x.x +x.x +x.x +x.x –

Rail Transport Data Mainline Passenger Mainline Freight Urban Rail

Transport Performance 2016 xx million pkm xx million tkm xx million pkm

CAGR 2011–2016 +x.x % +x.x % +x.x %

Modal Share +x.x % +x.x % –

Market Volume and Market Development Average Market

Volume 2017 [EUR million p.a.]

CAGR 2017–2022 [%]

by Transport Mode

High-Speed Rail (HSR) xx +x.x

Conventional Railway (CR) xx +x.x

Metro (M) xx +x.x

Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx +x.x

by Investment Target

New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx +x.x

Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx +x.x

Total xx +x.x

Monetary values rounded to EUR 10 million.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 60: Czech Republic – Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks and Track System Market

(…)



Figure 107: Czech Republic – Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022

(…)

Figure 111: Poland – Average Market Volume by Investment Target 2017 and 2022

(…)

Figure 121: Canada – Average Market Volume 2017 by Group of Products and Services

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

2017

2022

Conventional Railway Metro Light Rail Transit

Czech Republic – Average Market Volume by Transport Mode 2017 and 2022 [EUR million]

x.x% p.a. x.x% p.a. x.x% p.a.

0

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

xx xx…

0

300

600

900

2017 2022

New Development and Upgrade Renewal Maintenance

Poland – Average Market Volume by Investment Target 2017 and 2022 [EUR million]

x.x% p.a.

x.x% p.a.

x.x% p.a.

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

xx

xx

xx

Railsxx%

Switches / Turnouts and Crossings

xx%

Sleepers /

Crosstiesxx%

Rail

Fasteningsxx%

Slab Track / Ballastless Track

xx%

Ballastxx%

Other Permanent

Way Productsxx%

Installation

xx%

Planningxx%

Canada – Shares of the Groups of Products and Services in the Average Market Volume 2017

Total:EUR xx million

© SCI Verkehr GmbH



(…) Domestic Manufacturers and Suppliers to the Market Besides Western Europe, Russia, and China, the USA are a traditional focal point of the global railway infrastructure manufacturing industry. Similar to Russia (but not to the same extent), indigenious development paths have led to a proprietary range of products installed and technologies used. Two rolling mills located in Pueblo, Colorado (owned by Evraz) and Steelton, Pennsylvania (owned by ArcelorMittal) supply rails to the market. Cleveland Track Materials (subsidiary of Vossloh) manufactures turnouts. (…)

Project Trans-port

Mode

New Route [km]

Up-grade [km]

Project Invest [EUR mn]

Start of Construction

Completion

LRT Bordeaux: Line D LRT 9.8 0 382 2017 2019

LRT Paris: Tram-Train Evry-Massy (Tram Express Sud)+E723

LRT 20 0 500 2017 2020

(…)

LRT Montpellier: Line 5 Clapier–Rond-Point Paul Fajon

LRT 17.5 0 330 2020 2025

LRT Nantes: Line 4 Anne de Bretagne Bridge–Rezé

LRT 5 0 150 2020 2026

HSR = High Speed Rail; CR = Conventional Railway; M = Metro; LRT = Light Rail Transit

Data above partly estimated

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Table 86: France – Important Infrastructure Projects

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