raising happiness in poorer countries: will economic growth do the job? richard a. easterlin october...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Raising Happiness in Poorer Countries: Will Economic Growth Do the Job? Richard A. Easterlin October 2011 1 (With help from Laura Angelescu-McVey, Robson](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081516/56649c925503460f9494cdb1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Raising Happiness in Poorer Countries: Will
Economic Growth Do the Job?
Richard A. EasterlinOctober 2011
1
(With help from Laura Angelescu-McVey, Robson Morgan, Heinz-Henry Noll, Anke Plagnol, Onnicha Sawangfa, Malgorzata Switek, Jacqueline Smith Zweig)
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Growth and Happiness
In less developed countries (LDCs) rapid economic growth does not raise the growth rate of Happiness.
2
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Growth and Happiness
In less developed countries (LDCs) rapid economic growth does not raise the growth rate of Happiness.
This finding is the same as that for the developed countries (DCs), and for eastern European countries transitioning from socialism to capitalism (TCs).
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LDC Evidence
Long term trends in:1. 17 Latin American countries, 1994-2006
(Latinobarometro)
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LDC Evidence
Long term trends in:1. 17 Latin American countries, 1994-2006
(Latinobarometro)
2. 9 countries, 15-33 years, scattered across three continents (World Values Survey)
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LDC Evidence
Long term trends in:1. 17 Latin American countries, 1994-2006
(Latinobarometro)
2. 9 countries, 15-33 years, scattered across three continents (World Values Survey)
3. China, 1990-2010 (Real per capita income doubling in less than 10 years)
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China (1)World Values Survey, 1990-2007
(scale 1-10)
4
(All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days? Please use this card to help with your answer.)
1 ‘Dissatisfied’ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ‘Satisfied’
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(urban pop)
(total pop)
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China (2)Gallup, 1997-2004
(1- 4 scale)
5
(Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today? Would you say you are: 4 = Very satisfied; 3 = Somewhat satisfied; 2 = Somewhat dissatisfied; 1 = Very dissatisfied?)
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China (3)Gallup, 1999-2010
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(Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?)
1-10 scale 0-10 scale
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Q. If rapid growth of income doesn’t in itself raise happiness, can anything be done to increase happiness?
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LT Relation
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Q. If rapid growth of income doesn’t in itself raise happiness, can anything be done to increase happiness?
A. Public policy.
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LT Relation
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Some time series evidence from TCs
8Note: No LT change in Life Satisfaction, 1990-1999
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
Dwelling 6.93 7.36 +0.43
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
Dwelling 6.93 7.36 +0.43
Standard of living 6.34 6.63 +0.29
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
Dwelling 6.93 7.36 +0.43
Standard of living 6.34 6.63 +0.29
Household income 5.52 5.61 +0.09
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
Dwelling 6.93 7.36 +0.43
Standard of living 6.34 6.63 +0.29
Household income 5.52 5.61 +0.09
And yet…
(0-10 scale)
9
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
1990 1999
Positive changes: (pre-transition) (post-transition) Change
Satisfaction with:
Environment 3.11 6.47 +3.36
Goods availability 3.16 6.20 +3.04
Dwelling 6.93 7.36 +0.43
Standard of living 6.34 6.63 +0.29
Household income 5.52 5.61 +0.09
And yet…
Satisfaction 6.57 6.55
(0-10 scale)
9
Life -0.02
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
(Pre-transition) (Post-transition)
Negative changes: 1990 1999 ChangeSatisfaction with:
Health 6.62 6.20 -0.42
10
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
(Pre-transition) (Post-transition)
Negative changes: 1990 1999 ChangeSatisfaction with:
Health 6.62 6.20 -0.42
Work 7.23 6.48 -0.75
10
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
(Pre-transition) (Post-transition)
Negative changes: 1990 1999 ChangeSatisfaction with:
Health 6.62 6.20 -0.42
Work 7.23 6.48 -0.75
Childcare 7.54 6.48 -1.06
10
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
(Pre-transition) (Post-transition)
Negative changes: 1990 1999 ChangeSatisfaction with:
Health 6.62 6.20 -0.42
Work 7.23 6.48 -0.75
Childcare 7.54 6.48 -1.06
Net balance
10
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Satisfaction with various areas (“domains”) of life: Former GDR
(Pre-transition) (Post-transition)
Negative changes: 1990 1999 ChangeSatisfaction with:
Health 6.62 6.20 -0.42
Work 7.23 6.48 -0.75
Childcare 7.54 6.48 -1.06
Net balance
Satisfaction 6.57 6.55 -0.02
10
Life
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A check: Satisfaction with various domains of life: Hungary
Domain 1992 1997 Change
Standard of living 4.6 4.5 -0.1
Household income 3.6 3.4 -0.2
(0-10 scale)
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A check: Satisfaction with various domains of life: Hungary
Domain 1992 1997 Change
Standard of living 4.6 4.5 -0.1
Household income 3.6 3.4 -0.2
Health 6.4 5.8 -0.6
Home 7.1 6.5 -0.6
Work 7.4 6.7 -0.7
(0-10 scale)
11
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Lesson from TCs
Money (Material living level) isn’t everything.
Public policies regarding Family life, Health, Job Security matter.
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Does public policy matter?
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Point-of-time test: Compare European countries with similar economic conditions, but different policies – Does Happiness differ?
13
Does public policy matter?
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European Countries with Similar Economic Conditions, Different
Public Policies
Group A: Welfare States - Denmark, Sweden, Finland
Group B: France, UK, Germany, Austria
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Macro-Economic Conditions, Groups A and B, 2007
Group A
Group B
GDP pc
($,000)
34.3
33.4
15
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Macro-Economic Conditions, Groups A and B, 2007
Group A
Group B
GDP pc
($,000)
34.3
33.4
Inflation
rate
(%/yr)
2.1
2.1
15
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Macro-Economic Conditions, Groups A and B, 2007
Group A
Group B
GDP pc
($,000)
34.3
33.4
Inflation
rate
(%/yr)
2.1
2.1
Unemp
rate
(%)
5.6
6.6
15
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Public Policies in Groups A and BBenefit Generosity, 2002
Group A
Group B
Unemployment
Benefit
(0-15)
9.9
6.6
16
Generosity Index (Scruggs)
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Public Policies in Groups A and BBenefit Generosity, 2002
Group A
Group B
Unemployment
Benefit
(0-15)
9.9
6.6
Sickness
Benefit
(0-15)
11.4
9.2
16
Generosity Index (Scruggs)
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Public Policies in Groups A and BBenefit Generosity, 2002
Group A
Group B
Unemployment
Benefit
(0-15)
9.9
6.6
Sickness
Benefit
(0-15)
11.4
9.2
Pension
Benefit
(0-17)
12.5
10.4
16
Generosity Index (Scruggs)
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Public Policies in Groups A and BBenefit Generosity, 2002
Group A
Group B
Unemployment
Benefit
(0-15)
9.9
6.6
Sickness
Benefit
(0-15)
11.4
9.2
Pension
Benefit
(0-17)
12.5
10.4
16
Overall
Benefit
(0-47)
33.8
26.2
Generosity Index (Scruggs)
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Public Policies in Groups A and BBenefit Generosity, 2002
Group A
Group B
Unemployment
Benefit
(0-15)
9.9
6.6
Sickness
Benefit
(0-15)
11.4
9.2
Pension
Benefit
(0-17)
12.5
10.4
16
Overall
Benefit
(0-47)
33.8
26.2
Income
replacement
rate*
(OECD)
38.0
27.4
Generosity Index (Scruggs)
* Di Tella, R., MacCulloch, R.J. and Oswald A.J. (2003). The Macroeconomics of Happiness. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 809-827.
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Public Policies in Groups A and BRespondents’ Ratings of Government
Services, (1-10 scale)(In general, how would you rate the quality of each of the following PUBLIC services in [your country]?)
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Group A
Group B
17
Health
7.4
6.8
Public Policies in Groups A and BRespondents’ Ratings of Government
Services, (1-10 scale)(In general, how would you rate the quality of each of the following PUBLIC services in [your country]?)
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Group A
Group B
17
Health
7.4
6.8
Education
7.8
6.6
Family life
Public Policies in Groups A and BRespondents’ Ratings of Government
Services, (1-10 scale)(In general, how would you rate the quality of each of the following PUBLIC services in [your country]?)
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Group A
Group B
17
Health
7.4
6.8
Education
7.8
6.6
Care of:
children elderly
7.6 6.5
6.5 6.0
Family life
Public Policies in Groups A and BRespondents’ Ratings of Government
Services, (1-10 scale)(In general, how would you rate the quality of each of the following PUBLIC services in [your country]?)
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Group A
Group B
17
Health
7.4
6.8
Education
7.8
6.6
Care of:
children elderly
7.6 6.5
6.5 6.0
Public
pension
6.3
5.1
Family life
Public Policies in Groups A and BRespondents’ Ratings of Government
Services, (1-10 scale)(In general, how would you rate the quality of each of the following PUBLIC services in [your country]?)
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Trust in Government, Groups A and B
Respondents’ ratings, 1-10 scale
18
(Please tell me how much you personally trust each of the following institutions.)
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Trust in Government, Groups A and B
Respondents’ ratings, 1-10 scale
Group A
Group B
Government
6.3
5.0
18
(Please tell me how much you personally trust each of the following institutions.)
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Trust in Government, Groups A and B
Respondents’ ratings, 1-10 scale
Group A
Group B
Government
6.3
5.0
Political
parties
5.7
4.2
18
(Please tell me how much you personally trust each of the following institutions.)
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Trust in Government, Groups A and B
Respondents’ ratings, 1-10 scale
Group A
Group B
Government
6.3
5.0
Political
parties
5.7
4.2
Legal
system
7.4
5.8
18
(Please tell me how much you personally trust each of the following institutions.)
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Satisfaction with Work, Health, Family Life
Groups A and B, 2007
19
(scale 1-10)(Could you please tell me … how satisfied you are with each of the following items…)
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Satisfaction with Work, Health, Family Life
Groups A and B, 2007
19
(scale 1-10)
Group A: Denmark, Sweden, FinlandGroup B: France, UK, Germany, Austria
Group A
Group B
Work
8.0
7.2
(Could you please tell me … how satisfied you are with each of the following items…)
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Satisfaction with Work, Health, Family Life
Groups A and B, 2007
19
(scale 1-10)
Group A: Denmark, Sweden, FinlandGroup B: France, UK, Germany, Austria
Group A
Group B
Work
8.0
7.2
Health
7.9
7.4
(Could you please tell me … how satisfied you are with each of the following items…)
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Satisfaction with Work, Health, Family Life
Groups A and B, 2007
19
(scale 1-10)
Group A: Denmark, Sweden, FinlandGroup B: France, UK, Germany, Austria
Group A
Group B
Work
8.0
7.2
Health
7.9
7.4
Family Life
8.6
8.0
(Could you please tell me … how satisfied you are with each of the following items…)
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Satisfaction with Work, Health, Family Life
Groups A and B, 2007
19
(scale 1-10)
Group A: Denmark, Sweden, FinlandGroup B: France, UK, Germany, Austria
Group A
Group B
Work
8.0
7.2
Health
7.9
7.4
Family Life
8.6
8.0
LIFE
SAT (H)
8.4
7.2
(Could you please tell me … how satisfied you are with each of the following items…)
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Conclusion from Test
Although Groups A and B have similar economic conditions, Happiness is higher in Group A, where public policies regarding work, health, and family are more generous and comprehensive.
20
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (1)
21
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (1)
The Start of “Social Insurance:” Germany, 1880s
Compulsory state Year
Insurance for: started
Sickness 1883
Industrial accidents 1884
Pensions 1889
21
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (2)
Level
GDP per capita
in 2005 dollars
Germany, c. 1880 3200
22
of
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (2)
Level
GDP per capita Percent
in 2005 dollars of LDC
Germany, c. 1880 3200 population
LDCs, 2008 >3200
<3200 26
22
of
74
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (2)
Level
GDP per capita Percent
in 2005 dollars of LDC
Germany, c. 1880 3200 population
LDCs, 2008 >3200
<3200 26
(>6400) (43)
22
of
74
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
Germany, 1880s 1.8
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
Germany, 1880s 1.8
All LDCs, 2000-2008 5.1
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
Germany, 1880s 1.8
All LDCs, 2000-2008 5.1
China 9.7
India 6.4
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
Germany, 1880s 1.8
All LDCs, 2000-2008 5.1
China 9.7
India 6.4
East Asia except China 4.8
South Asia except India 3.8
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs? (3)
Germany, 1880s 1.8
All LDCs, 2000-2008 5.1
China 9.7
India 6.4
East Asia except China 4.8
South Asia except India 3.8
Middle East North Africa 3.0
Latin America 2.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.7
23
Growth Rate,GDP pc
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs?
Conclusion: Countries accounting for ¾ of LDC population have both:
a higher level of GDP pc, and
a higher growth rate of GDP pc
than Germany in the 1880s when it started social insurance programs.
24
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs?
Conclusion: Countries accounting for ¾ of LDC population have both:
a higher level of GDP pc, and
a higher growth rate of GDP pc
than Germany in the 1880s when it started social insurance programs.
Social insurance is affordable in most LDCs.
24
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Is Social Insurance Affordable in Today’s LDCs?
Conclusion: Countries accounting for ¾ of LDC population have both:
a higher level of GDP pc, and
a higher growth rate of GDP pc
than Germany in the 1880s when it started social insurance programs.
Social insurance is affordable in most LDCs.
Public policy in LDCs could increase H!24
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Thank you
and
Be happy!
25
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Which of the following situations would you prefer, A or B?
A. Your income increases by $1,000; the
income of everyone else stays the same.
B. Your income increases by $2,000; the
income of everyone else increases by
$4,000.
26
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Imagine you are 38 years old and are offered a new job in a field you like. The job pays 15 per cent more than your present job. It will also require more work hours and take you far away from your family more often. What is the likelihood you would take the job?
1. Very likely
2. Somewhat likely
3. Somewhat unlikely
4. Very unlikely
27
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BEL
NLDLUXFRA
ITA
DEUGBR
NIRL
IRLDEN
GRE
POR
SPA
NORUSACAN
AUSSlope: NS(n = 17)
-.1
-.0
50
.05
.1A
nnu
al C
han
ge in
LS
1 3 5Annual Growth Rate of GDPpc (%)
17 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES(21 - 34 YEARS)
The fitted regression is: y = -0.001 + 0.002x (adjusted R2 = 0.006); t-stats in parentheses. (-0.05) (0.31)
Longer Term RelationshipACTUAL
28
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The fitted regression is: y = 0.025 - 0.009x (adjusted R2 = 0.229); t-statistics in parentheses. (2.62) (-1.63)
Longer Term Relationship
29
ACTUAL
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ARG
BRA
CHI
MEX
CHN
KOR
TUR
SAFRJAP
Slope: NS(n = 9)
-.1
-.0
50
.05
.1A
nnu
al C
han
ge in
LS
0 2 4 6 8 10Annual Growth Rate of GDPpc (%)
9 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES(15 - 33 YEARS)
The fitted regression is: y = 0.033 - 0.004x (adjusted R2 = 0.168); t-stats in parentheses. (2.24) (-1.19)
Longer Term Relationship
30
ACTUAL
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Longer Term Relationship
BEL
NLDLUXFRA
ITA
DEUGBR
NIRL
IRLDEN
GRE
POR
SPA
NORUSACAN
AUS
POL
HUN
EST
LAT
LIT
RUS
GDR
CZE
SVK
BUL
ROM
ARG
BRA
CHI
MEX
CHN
KOR
TUR
SAFRJAP
Slope: NS(n = 37)
-.1
-.0
50
.05
.1A
nnu
al C
han
ge in
LS
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Annual Growth Rate of GDPpc (%)
17 DEVELOPED, 11 TRANSITION,AND 9 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(12 - 34 YEARS; MN = 22)
The fitted regression is: y = 0.018 - 0.003x (adjusted R2 = 0.069); t-stats in parentheses. (3.07) (-1.61) 31
ACTUAL
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The fitted regression is: y= -.255x + .012 (Adj R2= -0.05); t-stats in parentheses (0.5) (1.42)
Slope: NS
(n=17)
32
Longer Term RelationshipACTUAL
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LT Relation: Common Mistake
It is easy to mistake ST relation for LT by looking at relation of H to Y in Recession or Expansion (solid lines, a positive relation).
Recession Expansion
33
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LT Relation: Common MistakeRecession Expansion
It is easy to mistake ST relation for LT by looking at relation of H to Y in Recession or Expansion (solid lines, a positive relation).For LT relation look at trends (broken lines, a nil relation).
33
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Confusing ST with LT Relation: Example 1
Russian Federation Life Satisfaction, c. 1989 – 2005, and Index of Real GDP, Annually 1989 - 2005
34
Full Cycle, 1990-2005
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Confusing ST with LT Relation: Example 1
Russian Federation Life Satisfaction, c. 1989 – 2005, and Index of Real GDP, Annually 1989 - 2005
34
contraction only
Full Cycle, 1990-2005 Contraction Phase Only, 1990-98
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Confusing ST with LT Relation: Example 2
Slovenia Life Satisfaction, c. 1991 – 1999, and Index of Real GDP, Annually 1991 - 1999
35
Full Cycle, 1989-2000
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Confusing ST with LT Relation: Example 2
Slovenia Life Satisfaction, c. 1991 – 1999, and Index of Real GDP, Annually 1991 - 1999
35
expansion only
Full Cycle, 1989-2000 Expansion Phase Only, 1991-2000