ralph leszczynski
TRANSCRIPT
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MAREFORUM MARITIME ITALY 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Tanker Shipping Market Outlook
- Where we go next? -
Ralph Leszczynski
11 May 2009, Sorrento (Italy)
banchero costa researchwww.bancosta.it - [email protected]
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from avariety of sources, own and third party’s, public and private, and is provided for informationpurposes only.
Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-dateinformation in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as tothe accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness ofthe accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness ofconclusions drawn there from.
Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot inany way guarantee their accuracy or reasonablenessany way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.
banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in thecontent of this report.
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Market
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
h ‘ ’ k h d i dh ‘ ’ k h d i dthe ‘wet’ market has dried up…the ‘wet’ market has dried up…
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Baltic Dirty & Clean Tanker Indices (BDTI and BCTI)
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Baltic Dirty & Clean Tanker Indices (BDTI and BCTI)(index points, from The Baltic Exchange)
2000
2500
1500
2000
ndex
500
1000
in
005/2008 07/2008 09/2008 11/2008 01/2009 03/2009 05/2009
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Baltic Dirty & Clean Tanker Indices (BDTI and BCTI)The Baltic Dirty & Clean Tanker Indices (BDTI and BCTI)(index points, from The Baltic Exchange)
3000
3500
2000
2500
ndex
500
1000
1500
in
0
500
05/1999 05/2000 05/2001 05/2002 05/2003 05/2004 05/2005 05/2006 05/2007 05/2008 05/2009
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Baltic Dry and Tanker Indices (BDI, BDTI & BCTI)
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Baltic Dry and Tanker Indices (BDI, BDTI & BCTI)(index points, from The Baltic Exchange)
10000
11000
12000
6000
7000
8000
9000
ndex
2000
3000
4000
5000
i
0
1000
05/1999 05/2000 05/2001 05/2002 05/2003 05/2004 05/2005 05/2006 05/2007 05/2008 05/2009
Baltic Dry Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
y(timeseries of monthly averages, in usd/bbl and index points)
120
140
3000
3500
80
100
usd/
bbl 2000
2500
20
40
60
u
500
1000
1500
0
20
04/1999 04/2000 04/2001 04/2002 04/2003 04/2004 04/2005 04/2006 04/2007 04/2008 04/20090
500
Brent Crude Oil Price Baltic Dirty Tanker IndexBrent Crude Oil Price Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Clean Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Clean Tanker Index(timeseries of monthly averages, in usd/bbl and index points)
120
140
1800
2000
80
100
usd/
bbl 1200
1400
1600
20
40
60
u
600
800
1000
0
20
04/1999 04/2000 04/2001 04/2002 04/2003 04/2004 04/2005 04/2006 04/2007 04/2008 04/2009200
400
Brent Crude Oil Price Baltic Clean Tanker IndexBrent Crude Oil Price Baltic Clean Tanker Index
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 1999-2005
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1999 2005 (scatterplot of monthly averages, in usd/bbl and index points)
2500
3000
2000
2500
TI I
ndex
y = 47.839x - 42.066R2 = 0.437
1000
1500BD
T
5000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Brent Crude Oil Price USD/bbl
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 1999-2008
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Crude Oil Price v. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1999 2008 (scatterplot of monthly averages, in usd/bbl and index points)
2500
3000
2000
2500
TI I
ndex
y = 5.331x + 1061.2R2 = 0.0936
1000
1500BD
T
5000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Brent Crude Oil Price USD/bbl
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
VLCC Tanker (200k+ dwt) Newbuilding / 5YO SH Prices
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
( ) g(basis modern 300k dwt, estimated monthly avg, in USD mln)
140
160
180
80
100
120
140
usd
mln
20
40
60
80u
0
20
03/2000 03/2001 03/2002 03/2003 03/2004 03/2005 03/2006 03/2007 03/2008 03/2009
Newbuilding Price 5 Year Old Second Hand Price
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (80-120k dwt) Newbuilding/ 5YO SH Prices
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (80 120k dwt) Newbuilding/ 5YO SH Prices(basis modern 105k dwt, estimated monthly avg, in USD mln)
80
90
40
50
60
70
usd
mln
10
20
30
40u
0
10
03/2000 03/2001 03/2002 03/2003 03/2004 03/2005 03/2006 03/2007 03/2008 03/2009
Newbuilding Price 5 Year Old Second Hand Price
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 Tanker (40-60k dwt) Newbuilding/ 5YO SH Prices
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 Tanker (40 60k dwt) Newbuilding/ 5YO SH Prices(basis modern 47k dwt, estimated monthly avg, in USD mln)
50
60
30
40
usd
mln
10
20
u
003/2000 03/2001 03/2002 03/2003 03/2004 03/2005 03/2006 03/2007 03/2008 03/2009
Newbuilding Price 5 Year Old Second Hand Price
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
The Fleet
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
VLCC Tanker (200,000-350,000 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
80
100
60
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
20
40
num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJ 2009 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
VLCC Tanker (200,000-350,000 dwt) Orderbook/Trading
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
VLCC Tanker (200,000 350,000 dwt) Age Profile Pie
30 yrs + (< 79) t 5 (blt 04 09)26 30 yrs (79 83)
Orderbook/Trading40%
16-20 yrs (89-93)19%
21-25 yrs (84-88)4%
30 yrs + (< 79)6%
up to 5 yrs (blt 04-09)25%
26-30 yrs (79-83)2%
11-15 yrs (94-98)15%
6-10 yrs (99-03)29%
updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Suezmax Tanker (120,000-199,999 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
60
70
80
40
50
60
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
10
20
30num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Scrapped or lost Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJ 2009 Scrapped or lost Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Suezmax Tanker (120,000-199,999 dwt) Orderbook/Trading
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
( , , ) Age Profile Pie
26-30 yrs (79-83) 30 yrs + (< 79)2%21-25 yrs (84-88)
Orderbook/Trading48%
1% up to 5 yrs (blt 04-09)32%
2%21-25 yrs (84-88)4%
16-20 yrs (89-93)17%
6-10 yrs (99-03)28%
11-15 yrs (94-98)16%
28%Updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (78,000-119,999 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
100
120
60
80
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
20
40
num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Demo Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJ 2009 Demo Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (78,000-119,999 dwt) Orderbook/Trading
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (78,000 119,999 dwt) Age Profile Pie
26-30 yrs (79-83) 30 yrs + (< 79)0%
Orderbook/Trading30%
3% up to 5 yrs (blt 04-09)34%
0%21-25 yrs (84-88)9%
16-20 yrs (89-93)16%
6-10 yrs (99-03)25%
11-15 yrs (94-98)13%
updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker Trading (78,000-119,999 dwt)
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
g ( , , )
Product Carrier16%16%
C d C iCrude Carrier84%
updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker Orderbook (78,000-119,999 dwt)
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
( , , )
Product Carrier38%
Crude Carrier62%
d d J 2009updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 Tanker (42,000-59,999 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
180
210
240
120
150
180
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
30
60
90num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 Tanker (42,000-59,999 dwt) Orderbook/Trading
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
a e (42,000 59,999 dwt) Age Profile Pie
26-30 yrs (79-83)2% up to 5 yrs (blt 04-09)
57%
30 yrs + (< 79)0%
21-25 yrs (84-88)6%
Orderbook/Trading59%
57%16-20 yrs (89-93)
5%
11-15 yrs (94-98)10%
6-10 yrs (99-03)20%
updated: January 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
VLCC (200-350,000 dwt) Fleet Growth assuming Current Orderbook and Reasonable Demolition
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
In terms of Number of Units
"Low Demolition" Scenario VLCC (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total( )Deliveries 60 68 90 19 237Demolitions 11 11 11 11 44Net Increase 49 57 79 8 193Total Fleet 590 639 696 775 783
All units which are currently over 25 Years Old are scrapped before
Y-o-Y Growth 8.3% 8.9% 11.4% 1.0%
"High Demolition" Scenario VLCC (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TotalDeliveries 60 68 90 19 237
2012
Demolitions 18 18 18 18 72Net Increase 42 50 72 1 165Total Fleet 590 632 682 754 755Y-o-Y Growth 7.1% 7.9% 10.6% 0.1%
All units which are currently over 20 Years Old are scrapped before 2012
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Suezmax (120-200,000 dwt) Fleet Growth assuming Current Orderbook and Reasonable Demolition
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
In terms of Number of Units
"Low Demolition" Scenario Suezmax (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total( )Deliveries 67 47 49 13 176Demolitions 3 3 3 3 12Net Increase 64 44 46 10 164Total Fleet 366 430 474 520 530
All units which are currently over 25 Years Old are scrapped before
Y-o-Y Growth 17.5% 10.2% 9.7% 1.9%
"High Demolition" Scenario Suezmax (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TotalDeliveries 67 47 49 13 176
2012
Demolitions 6 6 6 6 24Net Increase 61 41 43 7 152Total Fleet 366 427 468 511 518Y-o-Y Growth 16.7% 9.6% 9.2% 1.4%
All units which are currently over 20 Years Old are scrapped before 2012
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax (78-120,000 dwt) Fleet Growth assuming Current Orderbook and Reasonable Demolition
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
In terms of Number of Units
"Low Demolition" Scenario Aframax (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total( )Deliveries 89 90 42 3 224Demolitions 8 8 8 8 32Net Increase 81 82 34 -5 192Total Fleet 856 937 1019 1053 1048
All units which are currently over 25 Years Old are scrapped before
Y-o-Y Growth 9.5% 8.8% 3.3% -0.5%
"High Demolition" Scenario Aframax (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TotalDeliveries 89 90 42 3 224
2012
Demolitions 28 28 28 28 112Net Increase 61 62 14 -25 112Total Fleet 856 917 979 993 968Y-o-Y Growth 7.1% 6.8% 1.4% -2.5%
All units which are currently over 20 Years Old are scrapped before 2012
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 (42-60,000 dwt) Fleet Growth assuming Current Orderbook and Reasonable Demolition
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
In terms of Number of Units
"Low Demolition" Scenario MR2 (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total( )Deliveries 205 150 85 18 458Demolitions 5 5 5 5 20Net Increase 200 145 80 13 438Total Fleet 781 981 1126 1206 1219
All units which are currently over 25 Years Old are scrapped before
Y-o-Y Growth 25.6% 14.8% 7.1% 1.1%
"High Demolition" Scenario MR2 (number) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TotalDeliveries 205 150 85 18 458
2012
Demolitions 18 18 18 18 72Net Increase 187 132 67 0 386Total Fleet 781 968 1100 1167 1167Y-o-Y Growth 23.9% 13.6% 6.1% 0.0%
All units which are currently over 20 Years Old are scrapped before 2012
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Demand
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
World Seaborne Crude Oil Trade
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
(estimates, in thousand barrels per day)
40000
45000
50000
25000
30000
35000
40000
ds b
arre
ls d
aily
7.1% 7.8% 6.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 1.0%5000
10000
15000
20000
Tho
usan
d
-3.8% -3.3%
0
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Crude Oil Trade Y-o-Y Growth
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
World Seaborne Petroleum Products Trade
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
(estimates, in thousand barrels per day)
16000
18000
8000
10000
12000
14000
ds b
arre
ls d
aily
6.2% 5.6% 0 9% 6.1% 8.2% 8.3% 7.0% 3 3% 1 3%2000
4000
6000
8000
Tho
usan
d
5.6% 0.9% 3.3% 1.3%
0
2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Product Trade Y-o-Y Growth
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
CHINACHINA //中国中国CHINA CHINA //中国中国
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
World's Top 10 Seaborne Oil Importers in 2008p p(estimates)
7,000
8,000
4 000
5,000
6,000
barr
els d
aily
2,000
3,000
4,000
Tho
usan
d
0
1,000
USA Japan China Korea India Italy France Germany Canada Singapore
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Share of World Seaborne Oil Imports in 2008Share of World Seaborne Oil Imports in 2008(estimates)
USA20%
Others16% 20%
Other Asia7%
India5%
Korea6% China
8% Japan10%
EU28%
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Seaborne Imports of Iron Ore by Country in 2008
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Seaborne Imports of Iron Ore by Country in 2008(estimate, all bulkcarriers, as % of volumes in tonnes)
Middle East3%
Others3%3%Western Europe
17%
Japan19% China
58%
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
China - Refinery Capacity and Product Demand C a e e y Capac ty a d oduct e a d(estimates)
7 000
8,000
9,000
4 000
5,000
6,000
7,000
nd b
arre
ls d
aily
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Tho
usan
0
1,000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Refinery Capacity Product Demand
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
China - Crude Oil Production and Consumption
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
p(estimates, in mln tonnes)
350
400
tonn
es
200
250
300
cons
umpt
ion
in m
ln
50
100
150
oil p
rodu
ctio
n an
d c
0
50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)
Chi
nese
Consumption Production
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
China - Comparison of Iron Ore and Crude Oil Imports
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
(customs data, in million tonnes gross)
400
500
300
400
nnes
per
yea
r
100
200
mln
ton
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)
Iron Ore Imports Crude Oil Importsp p
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
China - Seaborne Crude Oil ImportsChina Seaborne Crude Oil Imports (customs data, in million tonnes gross)
160
180
200
100
120
140
160
on to
nnes
+35%
+3%
+14% +12% +10%+7%
+31%
40
60
80mill
io
-8%
0
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f)
Crude Oil Imports Y-o-Y Growthp
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Number of Vehicles per 1000 People over 16 y.o.
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
p p y(source: abc news)
USA, 1023
1,200y.
o.
France, 702Japan, 608
900
0 pe
ople
ove
r 16
y
300
600
of c
ars e
very
100
0
India , 11 China, 90
no. o
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
C i i ? Wh C i i ?C i i ? Wh C i i ?Crisis? What Crisis?Crisis? What Crisis?
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
• The obsession with GDP – going for the magic ‘8’
• China’s credit and fiscal situation is better than most countries
• Total official government debt is approx 20% of GDP
• Required reserves at banks are high (15%)Required reserves at banks are high (15%)
• Property sector cooled down and now being reheated again
• Power generation -9.6% YoY in Nov 08, in March back to -0.7% YoY
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
• Fixed Asset Investments up 30% YoY in March, up 4.2 ppts from 1Q08
• Retail consumption up 16% YoY in March, up from 15.7% in jan-feb 09Retail consumption up 16% YoY in March, up from 15.7% in jan feb 09
• Real income growth 11.2% urban & 8.6% rural in 1Q09
• Air passenger traffic up 17% YoY in March
• Car sales up 8% YoY in March (small cars 22%)• Car sales up 8% YoY in March (small cars 22%)
banchero costa (shipbrokers)banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Back to Planet Earth…
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
Aframax Tanker (78,000-119,999 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
100
120
60
80
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
20
40
num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Demo Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJ 2009 Demo Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
MR2 Tanker (42,000-59,999 dwt) Age Profile
banchero costa (shipbrokers)
180
210
240
120
150
180
mbe
r of v
esse
ls
30
60
90num
0
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) NewbuildingJanuary 2009
banchero costabanchero costa
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