Rational Voting

POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith

Office Hours

• When– Today- no office hours– Wed 10-2– And by appointment

• Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes I

• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings

• Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)

THE RATIONAL VOTER MODELShould We Vote?

Rational Choice Theory of Voting

• When Should We Vote?

• Who should We Vote For?

The Rational Voting Calculus

• C= Cost of participation• B= Benefit of voting• P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term

C> PB +D We Stay At HomeC< PB +D We Vote

BP +DBenefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty

Benefits From Voting (B Term)

• Direct benefits

• Policy Benefits

• Desire to see one side win

Civic Duty (D Term)

• Democracy is the reward for voting

• If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote

• It can be a long term investment

The Rational Voting Calculus

C> PB +D We Stay At Home

C< PB +D We Vote

Partisanship

Still the biggest factor in vote choice

The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model

This Not-This

The Michigan Model

• The Funnel of Causality– The events leading up to vote day

– Socialization and temporal forces

• Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

Party Identification

• The same as Partisanship

• The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

What is Party Identification

• The Concept of party identification

• When do we get it

The Development of Party ID

• How We Use it

• How it evolves throughout our lives

• The importance of strong partisans

Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

Party Identification

Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote

• The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines

• What might cause deviations?

Democratic Normal Vote

Republican Normal Vote

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008

• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain

• There are more Democrats in the electorate

• Obama wins

2008 Vote by Party ID

THE 2010 ELECTIONTurnout and party Id

Turnout in 2010

• Very Similar to 2006

• A Smaller Electorate than 2008

• 42% overall

Midyear Tends to be boring

Low Motivation from The Left

• Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory

• Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

Who Voted?

• GOP was more energized

• More conservative

• Older

• Whiter

Party ID Rules the Day

Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels

The Big Question for 2012 was which electorate would we get: 2008 or 2010?

WHAT ABOUT INDEPENDENTSThose Wacky Fellows

Two Perceptions of Independents

• Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party

• Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.

Independents Matter

Why they Matter

• 1/3 of the electorate

• Necessary to get their support

• Often Break for the Wining Candidate– 2004 vs. 2008

The Independent Leaner

• Claim to be independent

• Actually lean to one of the parties

• Have the same behavior as partisans

The Pure Independent

• The growth in Independents is not from this group.

• Only 7-8% of the population

• Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.

Very Few Have No Preference