Pakistan: Political transition amid regional instability

Raza Rumi

Democratic path

Historical trends Gains made during 2008-2013

Federalism – NFC Award & 18th Amendment

Social protection Marginalised citizens

Civil-military imbalance remains Challenges: economy, energy,

security New power centres: Judiciary &

Media

2013: Political transitionContext

Democratic consensus Urban discontent Terrorists reducing political space NATO withdrawal Political and sectarian violence Growing power of militants as an

election factor

Current trends

Opinion polls reflect varying trends Fragmentation IRI polls placed Pakistan Tehreek e

Insaf (PTI) and recently Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) ahead of the ruling party

The SDPI poll shows ruling PPP ahead by a thin margin

A weak coalition expected

Scenarios

Possible: Coalition led by PMLN with regional parties

Possible: Coalition led by President Zardari’s PPP

Least likely: A majority win for PTI

Remote: Deadlock followed by military intervention

Election challenges

Impartiality of caretaker governments

Efficacy of Election Commission?Law & order and various types of

violenceWomen’s participationPolling booths – accessMedia responsibility?Judicial neutrality/role of an arbiter

Key Issues post-May 2013Urgent economic stabilizationGrowing energy crisisNATO troops withdrawal in AfghanistanInsurgency (Balochistan) & Urban

violence (Karachi)Handling extremist groupsPeace process with IndiaPublic service delivery & local

government

Scenarios

Best case: Functional coalition, incremental reform & controlled chaos

Mixed: Weak coalition, economic crisis management, military calling the shots on security/foreign policy

Worst case: Fledgling democracy, Afghanistan spillover effect & deep instability

For Pakistan elites

Urgent focus on reform: Political reform for legitimacy of

democratic path Economic reform for stabilisation Security & counter terrorism State-building in ungoverned areas such

as FATA, Balochistan, Karachi etc Correction of civil-military imbalance Peace with India & shift in Afghan

policy

For International Community

Engagement with Pakistan’s democracy & civilian institutions

Responsibility of not turning their back on the impending Afghan-Pakistan crisis

Re-tailoring aid from military to civilian – esp law enforcement agencies

A more nuanced appreciation of Pakistan’s internal transitions & dynamics