r&d portfolio management & budgeting

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Oklahoma State University © Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved. R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting tructor: Gregory H. Watson roduction to Strategy, Technology and Integration 5111 sion 2 – Part 3

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R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting. Instructor: Gregory H. Watson Introduction to Strategy, Technology and Integration ETM 5111 Session 2 – Part 3. Managing risk only protects against loss!. How to sustain performance?. Growth comes from taking advantage of opportunities!. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Instructor: Gregory H. WatsonIntroduction to Strategy, Technology and IntegrationETM 5111 Session 2 – Part 3

Page 2: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Managing risk only protects against loss!

How to sustain performance?

Page 3: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Managing opportunities – the other side of risk!

• How to recognize opportunities?Strategic dialog and environmental scanning

• How to decide where to invest?Portfolio planning and risk-based decisions

• How to deploy an opportunity?Policy deployment and objectives cascade

Page 4: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Industry product standards Standard product requirements Trade customer specifications End-user emphasis on weight/size Features and designs of competitive products Industrial design of the user interface (display, etc.) Product reliability requirements Built-in testing requirements Packaging requirements for robotic assembly Power requirements and battery size Marketing-specified differentiating features Teardown and recycling considerations Environmental factors in material and process choices

Drivers of product design requirements:

Page 5: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Quality = Value entitlement!

What the Customer

Wants

What theCustomer

is Promised

What theCustomer

Gets

Design Gap

Missed the right design opportunity.

Quality Gap

Failed to deliver a specified design.

CustomerEntitlement

CustomerExpectation

Quality is a ‘value entitlement’ of customers.

Customer value entitlement chain

TYPE ITYPE II

TYPE III

Opportunity to add value.

Opportunity to add value.

Page 6: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Success: Manage risk & deliver opportunity!

Reliable organizations work to reduce risk:

Beta Quality Risk = Probability of Type II Defect

Alpha Quality Risk = Probability of Type I Defect

Delivers Promise to Customer

KnowWhat

CustomerReallyNeeds

True

False

Yes No

Product deliveredis competitive.

Type III Defect:Product Delivered is not competitive.

Type I Defect:Fails to Deliver Design

Type II Defect:Design Fails Need

PRODUCER’S RISK

CONSUMER’S RISK SHAREHOLDER RISK

Gamma Quality Risk = Probability of Type III Defect

MANAGED RISK

Page 7: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Innovation profile comparison:

Product Innovation

Process Innovation

Time

Nu

mb

er

of Im

pro

vem

en

tsCompetitiveness

Process Technology

Pro

du

ct

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Page 8: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Notional relationship for managerial influence:

ProductPlanning

ConceptInvestigation

Basic Design PrototypeBuild

PilotProduction

Production

Management’s Ability to Influence Outcome

Actual Activity Profile of Senior Managers

Low

High

Index ofManagementAttention and

Influence

Page 9: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Impact of time-to-detect-errors on cost:

At source Final inspection Customer site

Co

st

Minor delayEasily fixed

Diagnostic timeRepair time

Delay in delivery

Sorting costWarranty cost

Time before defect is Identified

The Cost of Poor Quality to correct problems

Page 10: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Risk and business process control:Inherent Risk

 

Inherent risk is the total business exposure associated with a business process before applying any controls are applied to processes. Every activity has some level of inherent risk. When the inherent risk in a business unit is fully understood, controls can be designed for the key business processes to manage risk.

 

Controlled Risk 

Controlled risk is that part of the inherent risk that is being managed through business process controls.

 

Residual Risk 

Residual risk is that part of the inherent risk that remains exposed to loss, theft or error, after applying business controls. The level of residual risk that is acceptable is a management judgment.

Page 11: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Routine management actions to reduce risk:Decentralization -  Decentralized management and accountability means breaking the business down into manageable units. Decreased span of control allows managers to exercise proper decision authority and be accountable for performance.Segregation - Duties and responsibilities are to be segregated; e.g., the person receiving material can't be the same person who orders material. This protects the company and the employee. No employee can have exclusive knowledge, authority or recording responsibility for any significant transactions.Documentation - Documentation reduces the chance for error or misrepresentation because it usually involves at least two people. Documentation also provides a record that can be used to authenticate an event, recreate it or support the facts in a dispute. Documentation should always be produced as part of a work process.Supervision and Review - Supervision and review ensures that employees are not the sole evaluators of their own decisions. This supports better decision-making and control over work processes and allows those with decision rights to evaluate inputs.Timeliness - Controls must work as close to an event’s occurrence as possible and commensurate with risk exposure in order to both improve accuracy and allow for timely corrective action when deviations occur, i.e., reducing an exposure’s duration.Risk Relevance - Risk relevance means that the business control cost is related to the benefits derived by the business control. [NOTE: Regulatory compliance is not subject to a cost-and-benefit analysis. Regulatory compliance is mandatory.] Minimum Interdependence - Business controls should minimize interdependence. The failure of one business control should not compromise or reduce effectiveness of other controls. Furthermore, business controls should provide checks and balances and not work against one another.

Page 12: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Business controls for risk management:• Performance Standards assure that work is done consistently

and that the output meets customer performance expectations.• Business Audits assure that performance standards are used

appropriately.• Change Management Process assures that continuous process

improvements are consistently made across processes and that recognized improvement opportunities are implemented in all applicable areas.

• Standard Owners are responsible for managing standards to the state of the known art.

• Process Owners are responsible for the effective management of the work processes.

• Decision Rights and Delegation of Authority are two tools that are used to assure that the right person makes the right decision and that accountability is maintained for all decisions and work process outcomes.

Page 13: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment – key to managing risk!

• Conduct risk assessment as part of normal business analysis• Assess risk dimension in all business decisions• Identify risk factors inherent in work processes and decisions• Screen risk factors for severity of magnitude• Screen process for performance sensitivity to risk factors• Reduce risk factors in the process at the source of the risk• Manage your business system for lowest risk commensurate

with your targeted performance goals!

Page 14: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Evaluating alternative business opportunities:

ProcessMap

BusinessMeasures

SystemEvaluation

CompetitiveBenchmarks

InvestmentAllocation

ProjectSelection

Criteria

TechnologyAssessment

Flow Charting

BenchmarkingBaselineAnalysis

Budgeting

Business Scan

ChangeInitiative

BusinessMeasurement

System

CapabilityAnalysis

EntitlementDetermination Goals &

Objectives

StrategicDirection

For business improvement opportunities:

Page 15: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Portfolio decisions are driven by complex issues:

Product LineRoadmap

TechnologyRoadmap

CompetitorAnalysis

MarketResearch

TechnologyPortfolio

IntellectualProperty

Capital InvestmentAllocation

ProductDecisions

BusinessFactors

But, how should wecreate this portfolio of product projects?

Product Portfolio

Page 16: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

How much can you juggle?The ancient art of juggling provides a good measure of the number of things that we can manage consistently when such action requires both physical and mental effort.

A ‘juggle’ involves throwing an object into the air and catching it more than one time. A ‘flash’ requires that the object only be caught once.

This chart shows ‘world class’ performance in juggling – seven items have been juggled successfully almost 100 times, but the last world record was only 2 cycles for 10 items.

Number of Balls

Cat

ches

per

Bal

l

100908070605040302010

00 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Page 17: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Engaging the organization in a strategic dialog:

TIME

NU

MB

ER

OF

OP

TIO

NS

Three Phases of a Strategic Dialog

OPENING – discoveringthe options for analysis

SORTING – finding logicalrelationships andpurging duplicates

CLOSING –making thechoice of anoption

Initial Issue:

What should wedo in the future?

Page 18: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

t

n = 1

CFn

(1+ r)n

Internal Rate of Return (IRR):

• This is a metric that assesses the value of alternate investment proposals to determine their relative worth to the organization.

• When this is set as a minimum acceptable return for a project, then this becomes the “hurdle rate” which must be exceeded if the investment is going to proceed.

• The cost of capital (COC) is the after-tax return rate a business must achieve in order to exceed the capital investment that a company could make in the market at large.

• If CFn refers to the cash flow of a Project in the nth year of that project (t = total length), then solving the following equation for r (rate) will provide the IRR:

Project Cost =

Page 19: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Calculating IRR using Excel:Tool: Excel > Insert > fx Function > Financial > IRR

Example: Calculate the internal rate of return after five years for the following investment project. The initial investment requirement is $700,000 and the expected return (net expenses) for the next five years is: $120,000, $150,000, $180,000, $210,000 and $260,000.

Answer: 8.66%

Page 20: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Identifying risk for elimination or mitigation :

PerformanceDesignManufacturabilityCostReliabilityServiceSafetyProducibilitySupplier performanceDefectsCycle time

ToolingMeasurementTrainingOperabilityMarketingPackagingTransportation Inventory

Types of risk addressed in product design:

Page 21: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Analyze business risk throughout the project:

Goal: No show stoppers, significant risk or fix before launch issues in Verify step!!

Management Risk Scorecard

VerifyDesignAnalyzeMeasureDefine

Nu

mb

er O

f Is

sues

Eliminate issues, increase number of “proceed with caution” issues

Decrease number of show stoppers, significant

risk, fix before launch

Time

Significant Risk

Fix Before Launch

Proceed With Caution

Legend:

Page 22: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Determine when new products will payback:

Time

Dis

cou

nte

d C

ash

Flo

w

Breakeven Time

Time-to-Market

Net Profit(Positive Revenue)

Payback Date

Product Launch Date

Effect of Market Forecast Error

and Variability in Potential Sales

BET measures accumulated ROCE!

Product Initiation Date

Page 23: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Analytical hierarchy process (AHP):

Analytical Hierarchy Process:

AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis methodology used to prioritize among choices for several decision criteria based on their relative importance to a customer for judging between alternative choices.

Page 24: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Analytical hierarchy process (AHP)

• AHP provides a logical approach for making a complex decision by presenting the problem in a hierarchical structure and using relevant decision criteria and pair-wise comparisons to determine trade-offs among the objectives and make the most appropriate choice.

• AHP is based on three concepts:

– Decomposition of the decision problem into a hierarchy

– Comparative judgment of the alternative by criteria– Synthesis of the priorities into an overall judgment

Page 25: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical decision structure:AHP evaluates alternative options according to the same criteria as weighted for importance to the decision-maker. The final choice is made for the option having the highest overall score.

STEP 1: Structure the decision problem in a hierarchy:

Choice

Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4

Option A Option B Option C

Page 26: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Make comparative judgments:

Step 2: Compare the alternatives and the criteria. These comparisons are made in pairs for each element – both criteria and decision options. To establish relative comparisons, the following scale may be used to translate verbal descriptors into numerical values:

Verbal scale Numerical value

Equally important, likely or preferred 1Moderately more important, likely or preferred 3Strongly more important, likely or preferred 5Very strongly more important, likely or preferred 7Extremely more important, likely or preferred 9

NOTE: Intermediate values are used to reflect compromises by the decision-maker 2, 4, 6, 8

Page 27: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Synthesize decision priorities:

Step 3: Synthesize the comparisons to derive the priorities for all of the alternatives with respect to each of decision criterion and the relative weighting of each criterion with respect to the desired choice. The local priorities are then multiplied by the weights of the respective criterion. The results are summed up to get the overall priority of each alternative and determine the final rank order of all options.

Pairwise comparisons of the options:

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Local Priority

Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

Page 28: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

AHP decision process – continued:Pair-wise comparisons of the criterion with respect to the choice:

Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4 Weights

Criteria 1

Criteria 2

Criteria 3

Criteria 4

Option A

Option B

Option C

Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4 Global Rank(Weight) (Weight) (Weight) (Weight) Priority Order

Priorities, weights, and final ranking of the options:

Sensitivity study of final rank evaluates impact of criteria.

Page 29: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Plot results: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)1. Determine project risk (AHP)2. Determine the potential project

benefit (forecast BET)3. Plot project coordinates on

CAPM Grid4. Determine sequential

relationships in project completion

5. Rank projects in order of risk-benefit by inherent sequence for completion (e.g., technology readiness)

6. Make project decisions based on hurdle rates for risk & budget to achieve targeted benefitsRelative Risk

Re

lativ

e B

ene

fit

LOW RISK BENEFIT

HIGH RISKBENEFIT

MEDIUM RISKBENEFIT

Project plotted (risk, benefit)

Page 30: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Product Planning & Strategy Integration

Instructor: Gregory H. WatsonIntroduction to Strategy, Technology and IntegrationETM 5111 – Summer 2003Session 2 – Part 3

Page 31: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Performance management system:

StrategicPlan

AnnualPlan

ImplementationPlan

DiagnosticAnalysis

BusinessManagement

Project ManagementProcess ManagementProblem Solving

Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat AnalysisQuality Improvement PlanCapital Investment PlanInformation Systems StrategyHuman Resource Plan

OperatingBudget

Presidential ReviewOperating ReviewSelf-Assessment

Business ImperativesPerformance Indicators

Performance Feedback

World ofFacts

ScenarioOptions

World ofPossibilities

Values VisionBusinessCase

PoliticsRegulationsEconomicsTechnologyEnvironment

Market ResearchTechnology Assessment

Competitive AnalysisStrategic Benchmarking

Customer AnalysisBusiness Performance

Critical Assumption EvaluationDiscontinuity Analysis

Corrective ActionPreventive Action

Review

Enterprise

Business

Operations

Page 32: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Controlling the policy management cycle:

Policy Management: The process of setting policy, implementing policy in the business processes and working procedures and reviewing work activities to recognize innovative business improvement opportunities.

Policy Setting

Policy Deployment

Policy Implementation

Policy Review

Daily Management

“the business control function”The entire context of the organization is set by its policy for values and the ethical conduct of work.

Page 33: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Portfolio decisions are driven by complex issues:

Product LineRoadmap

TechnologyRoadmap

CompetitorAnalysis

MarketResearch

TechnologyPortfolio

IntellectualProperty

Capital InvestmentAllocation

ProductDecisions

BusinessFactors

But, how should wecreate this portfolio of product projects?

Product Portfolio

Page 34: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Integrated product & technology planning process

ProductRoad Map

Market Strategy

TechnologyStrategy

Market Requirementsfor Features

Technology Plan

Alignment

CurrentTechnologyInventory

TechnologyPortfolio

Product Development

Plans

TechnologyDevelopment

Plans

CompetitiveAnalysis

CustomerAnalysis

• Identify leveraged technology• Obtain new technology • Develop new technology

• Current product features• Intellectual property portfolio • Technology License agreements

• Acquire or Develop• Buy, Trade or Partner • Technology transfer timing

Planning Activities

Planning Documents

Page 35: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Remember the “S-curve”?

• A characteristic plot for progress of a key technology attribute • A family of curves, derived from historical data from a large

number of previous technologies• The basic assumption is that progress in all new technologies

behave in a similar manner and follow a similar curve.

Time

Me

asu

rem

en

t It is essential to understand which technical parameters makes market differences and to understand migration pathways that transfer new technology into the market.

Page 36: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Time

Me

asu

rem

en

t

Natural Limit

• Caused by a physical property which constrains a key parameter to a limit beyond which it can not exceed.

• Growth in progress will slow down as it asymptotically approaches this limit.

Natural or physical limits to growth:

Page 37: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

MAGNETIC RECORDING AREAL DENSITY

0.1

1

10

100

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

08

YEAR

Superparamagnetic LimitExample:

Page 38: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Choosing S-curve measurement parameter(s):• Every market has 1 or more key market parameters driving product value.• Key technology parameters are determined by key market parameters that

are dependent on the underlying technology.• Every technology has one or more key technology parameters that drive

its market value.

Caution!• Choice of the wrong key technical parameter will lead to incorrect

technology forecast, false conclusions, and bad business decisions.

Identification Process:• Identify independent technical parameters related to key market factors.• Rank and select the most significant technical parameter(s) that have the

greatest influence on the key market parameter(s).• Use the top 1 or 2 parameters to plot the S-curve for that technology.

Page 39: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Choosing the best S-curve parameter – 1:• S-Curves must have a definitive and correct Y-Axis parameter.

• Ask yourself:1) What is the main market factor customers use to choose between competing brands of products?

2) What technical parameter in the product or process must constantly improve to remain competitive in meeting that market factor?

3) What is the unit of measurement (Y-axis) of that improvement requirement?

• Key market parameters are the most significant measurement factors that customers use to select or choose between products.– Cargo Truck Example: Lowest cost of cargo hauling capacity / pound / mile.

• Key technology parameters are “technology” factors which have the most effect on the Market Parameter measurement.– Cargo Truck Example: Fuel Efficiency / pound cargo at average speed.

Page 40: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

"S" CURVECARGO TRUCK TECHNOLOGY PARAMETER

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

YEARS

MIL

ES

/GA

L.

@(1

000 L

BS

. C

AR

GO

& 6

5M

PH

)FUEL EFFICIENCY

Page 41: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Choosing the best S-curve parameter – 2:• Key technology parameters do not include other “non-technical” parameters

which also might significantly affect the key market parameter, but which are not a part of the cargo truck “design”. – Cargo Truck Example: NOT - Fuel cost per mile or truck driver labor

cost/pound of cargo per mile, or total operating cost per mile.

• Each key technology parameter has several supporting technologies that contribute to the measurement of its improvement progress.

– Cargo Truck Example: Weight of the truck per hauling capacity pound, or the transmission gear efficiency, or the truck’s aerodynamic drag, etc.

• Progressive improvements or new additions to these supporting technologies provide the means to advance and improve the key technology parameter.

• Improvements in these provide a means for a logical step improvement of the technology S-curve.

• Supporting technologies do not represent “alternative technologies” because they support progress of the original technology, and do not replacement for it.

Page 42: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

"S" CURVECARGO TRUCK TECHNOLOGY PARAMETER

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

YEARS

MIL

ES

/GA

L.

@(1

000

LB

S.

CA

RG

O &

65M

PH

)FUEL EFFICIENCY

COMPUTER CONTROL

FUELINJECTOR

GEARCONTROL

CAB & BED WEIGHT REDUCTION

POWER TRAINIMPROVEMENT

AIR DRAGREDUCTION

Page 43: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Business Objective:

• To understand what the progress rate for the key technical parameter is for the industry as a whole

• To plan to exceed or at least match the industry progress in parameters that are critical to commercial success

NOTE: Progress does not follow a predetermined or inevitable path!

The exact shape of a technology “S” curve is determined by many factors:

• Amount of investment & resources applied

• Industry interest and supporting infrastructure

• Progress of required & supporting technologies

• Number of competitors

• Etc., etc.

Success: timely observation and good choice!

Page 44: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Progress on the S-curve happens in both small incremental steps (from the migration of technology) and breakthrough leaps (from new technology).

To stay on the Industry S-curve you must:

Know which steps are most important

Know when these steps must be taken

Know what it takes to make them happen

Plan to make them happen

Make them happen

Excellence comes from execution – planning anticipates needs!

Success: A step-by-step journey!

Page 45: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Example: Incremental technology pathway

LASER TEXTURED DISK

30% SLIDER

MR HEADS

PRML CHANNEL

MICRO ACTUATOR

TIME

(AR

EA

L D

EN

SIT

Y)

S-Curve steps

Me

asu

rem

en

t

Page 46: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Breakthroughs from alternative technology:

• Cell-Phones - Analog to Digital

• Disk Drives - Magnetic to Optical

• PC Monitors - CRT to Flat Panel

• Film - Photo Chemical to Digital

• Video Recorders - Magnetic Tape to DVD-CD

What technology would completely change your business?

Page 47: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Product plans: Design a path to the future Requires careful consideration, accommodation and integration of many related factors:

• Customer, market and competitive dimensions • Technology maturity• Assembly and production capability• Design rules that are set by manufacturing capability• Etc., etc.

Objective:• Respond to corporate strategy with plans for profitable and timely

products, leading in their markets and meeting customer needs.

How:• Develop integrated, consistent market and technology strategies

that are aligned with the corporate strategy and customer needs.

Page 48: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

• Future market needs are projected based on industry history, customer inputs and competitive moves

• Performance attributes are driven by key technology parameters and plotted as an S-curve forecast

• Timing driven by customer and competition based on market history and technology forecast

• Price/cost/margins requirements projected from the current status as well as past market history

Road map assumptions:

Page 49: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Example: Product line road map:START 2/97 7/97 2/98 1/99 12/99 - TEST 7/97 1/98 11/98 9/99 7/00 - TEST 10/97 4/98 2/99 12/99 10/00 PROD. 1/98 8/98 5/99 3/00 1/01

PRODUCTA

PRODUCTE

PRODUCTC

?

PRODUCTB

PRODUCTD

Page 50: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Example: Product-specific road map

RD9840

RD9941

4000 Mb/in2

SALPWR. SAVERAMP1000 Gs Non-Op ShockFluid Bearing Spindle

6200 Mb/in2

GMRQuick StopNew Self TestEasy Plug

9700 Mb/in2

20% sliderMicroactuator1394 Interface3.3V Intro

Start 7/98 4/99 1/00 -Test 9/98 6/99 3/00

Produce 11/98 8/99 5/00

10/00 12/002/01

9 GB

15 GB 21 GB30 GB

RD004213,000 Mb/in2

2.5”, 12.7mm, 4 disc drives

RD0143

Market Requirements

S-Curve

Market requirements

Page 51: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Technology migration planning:

• Even if all risk gaps are managed, too many new technologies introduced in the same product can produce an unacceptable risk for that product.

• Each product should be reviewed to assess risk and the potential for technology smoothing using a “Technology Migration Plan”.

• Technology implementation plans may be delayed or accelerated to achieve smoothing, provided the product road map requirements can be met.

Page 52: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

PROD.

APROD.

BPROD.

CPROD.

DPROD.

EPROD.

F

HEADS 1 1 2 2 3 3

MEDIA 12 12 13 14 14 14

MECHBASE

5 5 5 6 6 6

ACTUATOR 3 4 4 5 5 5

SPINDLE 6 6 6 7 7 7

U-PROCESSOR 2 2 2 3 3 3

READCHANNEL

7 7 7 8 8 9

TECHNOLOGY MIGRATION PLANBIG PROBLEM!!(Numbers represent technology risk)

Page 53: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

PROD.

APROD.

BPROD.

CPROD.

D

PROD.

EPROD.

F

HEADS 1 1 2 2 3 3

MEDIA 12 12 13 14 14 14

MECHBASE

5 5 5 6 6 6

ACTUATOR 3 4 4 4 5 5

SPINDLE 6 6 6 7 7 7

U-PROCESSOR 2 2 2 2 3 3

READCHANNEL

7 7 8 8 8 9

TECHNOLOGY MIGRATION PLAN (REV. A)(Numbers represent technology risk)

Page 54: R&D Portfolio Management & Budgeting

Oklahoma State University© Copyright 2003 by Gregory H. Watson. All rights reserved.

Technology road map suggestions:

• Develop product road map from business strategy

• Develop technology plan from strategic technology portfolio

• Compare technology plan alignment to product road map need

• Identify technology gaps and misalignments

• Develop technology alternatives for the gaps & resolve misalignments

• Investigate technology/product risk & trade-offs

• Adjust technology implementation plans for smoothing

• Validate product road maps/technology plan

• Adjust product road maps? (Only in the last resort!)

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Personal reflection:

• Think about a technology that you are familiar with (e.g., personal computers, photography, or stereo systems) and mentally map out the last 20 years of its product/feature introduction. Can you envision a road map that would describe the company’s actions in the market place? If you drew its S-curve what would it look like? Where is this technology today?

• If you were a business leader for a leading company in this industry, what would concern you the most?

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Assignment #2: The Integrating Roles of Corporate Values and Vision

Instructor: Gregory H. WatsonIntroduction to Strategy, Technology and IntegrationETM 5111 – Summer 2003

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Assignment #2:Jim Collins and Jerry I. Porras, Built to Last (HarperBusiness, 2002) paper, ISBN 0-060-516-402.

Topic: Focus on the integrating role of corporate values and vision

Read Collins & Porras book and prepare an essay using today’s presentation, the concepts presented by Collins & Porras and your business experience [for details that define the essay topic see the next slide].

Grading:

A+ – Demonstrated original thinking applying course material to experience

A – Demonstrated integration of course material and personal experience

B – Demonstrated understanding of Collins & Porras and today’s lecture

C – Demonstrated knowledge of Collins & Porras and today’s lecture

Length: Your MS Word document must be no more than 1000 words, but it may include embedded PowerPoint or Excel graphics to illustrate points.

Due: Prior to Session 3 – Email using assignment submission process

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Assignment #2 – essay instructions continued:The Integrating Roles of Corporate Values and Vision

Collins and Porras book Built to Last has been required reading in corporate boardrooms since it was first released. This book identifies features of corporate cultures that endure by comparing those that have not with successful counterparts. In this social study they have several key findings (e.g., ‘the power of AND’) that should be considered when building a business culture that is able to effectively manage technology and innovation. Based on your reading of Collins and Porras create a management recipe for the cultural values system for technology management. Identify the assumptions that you are making about the business (e.g., size, historical development, technology sector, maturity of technology, and any other factors that you think influence the choice of cultural emphasis areas). Use the model for value deployment presented in my background paper as a structure for describing the choices that you would make as the business leader responsible for setting values to influence attitudes that result in both individual behavior as well as a resulting organizational culture. Please footnote the points used from Collins and Porras and my paper on values deployment for cross-reference and easy identification. Your paper should be single-spaced and the length between 3-5 pages.

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Further reading:

• Want to learn more about today’s topics? Then read the following books:

1. Marco Iansiti, Technology Integration (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998).

2. Steven Wheelwright and Kim Clark, Revolutionizing Product Development (New York: Free Press, 1992).

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Next session:

• Read Collins & Porras book: Built to Last• Prepare Assignment #2

• Receive white paper on policy deployment• Read white paper as preparation for next session

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ETM – 5111:

End of Session 2

Instructor: Gregory H. WatsonSummer 2003Session 2 – End of Part 3