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Re-building and RecoveryQ1 2010 ResultsDebt Investor Presentation
2
Important Information
Certain sections in this presentation contain ‘forward-looking statements’
as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements that include the
words ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘believes’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (VaR)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, ‘optimistic’, ‘prospects’
and
similar expressions or variations on such expressions.
In particular, this document includes forward-looking statements relating, but not limited, to: the Group’s restructuring plans, capitalisation, portfolios, capital ratios, liquidity, risk weighted assets, return on
equity, cost-to-income ratios, leverage and loan-to-deposit ratios, funding and risk profile; the Group’s future financial performance; the level and extent of future impairments and write-downs; the protection
provided by the APS; and the Group’s potential exposures to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity and
equity price risk. Such statements are
subject to risks and uncertainties. For example, certain of the market risk disclosures are dependent on choices about key model
characteristics and assumptions and are subject to various limitations. By
their nature, certain of the market risk disclosures are only estimates and, as a result, actual future gains and losses could differ materially from those that have been estimated.
Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated by the forward-looking statements contained in this document include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions
in the UK and in other countries in which the Group has significant business activities or investments, including the United States; developments in the global financial markets, and their impact on the
financial industry in general and on the Group in particular; the full nationalisation of the Group or other resolution procedures under the Banking Act 2009; the monetary and interest rate policies of the Bank
of England, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
and other G7 central banks; inflation; deflation; unanticipated
turbulence in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity
prices and equity prices; changes in UK and foreign laws, regulations and taxes, including changes in regulatory capital regulations; a change of UK Government or changes to UK Government policy;
changes in the Group’s credit ratings; the Group’s participation in the APS and the effect of such scheme on the Group’s financial and capital position; the conversion of the B Shares
in accordance with their
terms; the ability to access the contingent capital arrangements
with Her Majesty’s Treasury (“HM Treasury”); limitations on, or additional requirements imposed on, the Group’s activities as a result of HM
Treasury’s investment in the Group; changes in competition and pricing environments; the financial stability of other financial institutions, and the Group’s counterparties and borrowers; the value and
effectiveness of any credit protection purchased by the Group; the extent of future write-downs and impairment charges caused by depressed asset valuations; the ability to achieve revenue benefits and
cost savings from the integration of certain of the businesses and assets of RBS Holdings, N.V. (formerly ABN AMRO); natural and
other disasters; the inability to hedge certain risks economically; the ability
to access sufficient funding to meet liquidity needs; the ability to complete restructurings on a timely basis, or at all, including the disposal of certain non-core assets and assets and businesses required as
part of the EC State aid approval; the adequacy of loss reserves; acquisitions or restructurings; technological changes; changes
in consumer spending and saving habits; and the success of the Group in
managing the risks involved in the foregoing.
The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation, and the Group does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or
circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence
of unanticipated events.
The information, statements and opinions contained in this presentation do not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy
any securities or
financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments.
3
Concluding remarks
RBS compared to peers
Funding & Liquidity
Reducing and managing risk
Agenda
Introduction to RBS, the strategic vision and Q110 highlights
Building blocks of the RBS RecoveryExternal factors Internal metrics
Appendices
The New RBS –
What we aspire to be
5
To be one of the world’s most admired, valuable and stable universal banks
To return to >15% sustainable RoEs, powered by market-leading businesses in large customer-driven markets
The business mix to produce an attractive blend of profitability, stability and sustainable growth –
anchored in the UK and in retail and commercial banking together with customer driven wholesale banking, and with credible growth prospects geographically and by business line
Management hallmarks to include an open, investor-friendly approach, discipline and proven execution effectiveness, strong risk management and a central focus on the customer
To deliver its strategy from a stable AA category risk profile and balance sheet
RBS’s 2013 vision
What did we set out to achieve in February 2009?
6
How are we going to do it?
Focus on UK and US franchises, and move balance of Group towards UK Retail and Commercial businessesResize and refocus GBM on corporate and financial institutions franchises and core locationsReposition other overseas businesses to align with Group competencies and reduce riskUse smaller balance sheet with muchless wholesale funding relianceUnderstand and manage down our Non-Core bank effectively
A cost base that is reduced, controlled and transparentReturns and balance sheet use targeted and measured A strong risk management organisation and processesA management framework and incentives to reward longer-term performanceManagement and accounting mechanisms for Non-Core assets
A reshaped business
New management disciplines
RBS’s Strategic Plan
7
2011
Return to Group profitabilityInitial cost reduction programmes completedInterest rates start to rise
2009
Formation of the Strategic PlanCreation of Non-Core£2.5bn cost saving programme announcedBusiness restructuring and reinvestmentNew Management and BoardAPS entered into and Recapitalisation completed‘Tools for the job’ in place
2010
Execution and implementation phase of the plan‘Roll up our sleeves’Economic recovery takes holdRetail & Commercial starts to rebound
Ongoing revenue and cost initiativesCompletion of Non-Core run-down2013 targets achieved
–
Returns–
Risk–
Franchise
Progress to date
Core profits build, Non-Core losses fall
2011 onwards
Target >15% RoE
Strategic plan timeline
8
Progress to date
1 As at 1 January 2008. 2 As at October 2008 3
Amount of unsecured wholesale funding under 1 year. 2009 includes £109bn of bank deposits and £141bn of other wholesale funding. 2013 target is for <£65bn of bank deposits, <£85bn of other wholesale funding. 4 As at December 2008 5 Eligible assets held for contingent liquidity purposes including
cash, government issued securities and other securities eligible with central banks. 6
Funded tangible assets divided by Tier 1 Capital. 7
As at June 2008 8
Group return on tangible equity for 2008 9 Indicative Core attributable profit taxed at 28% on attributable
core spot tangible equity (c70% of Group tangible equity based on RWAs). 10
2008
Key performance indicator
Worst point
FY 09 Actual
2013 Target
Core Tier 1 Capital 4%(1) 11.0% >8%
Loan : deposit ratio (net of provisions) 154%(2) 135% c100%
Wholesale funding reliance(3) £343bn(4) £250bn <£150bn
Liquidity reserves(5) £90bn(4) £171bn c£150bn
Leverage ratio(6) 28.7x(7) 17.0x <20x
Return on Equity (RoE) (31%)(8) Core 13%(9) >15%
Cost : income ratio net of claims 97%(10) Core 53% Core <50%
Q1 10 Actual
10.6%
131%
£222bn
£165bn
17.6x
Core 15%(9)
Core 54%
Current position versus 2013 targets
9
Core Business (Retail & Commercial, GBM, GTS and Insurance)–
Core customer franchises remain strong –
UK Retail now serves >12.8m current account customers
–
Operating profit: £2.3bn, +92% vs Q409 driven by seasonally strong results in GBM and improving Retail & Commercial trends
–
ROE: 15%, in line with long run targets
–
NIM: 2.11%, +5bps vs Q409 driven by GBM
–
Credit profile: ongoing improvement, impairment losses reduced 25% q-o-q to £971m
–
RWAs: £421bn, +7%, driven by ABN AMRO migration
Group Profile–
Group operating profit of £713m vs loss of £1.4bn Q409
–
Impairments: £2.7bn, -14% q-o-q driven by improvements in Core and Non-Core
–
Non-Core run off: tracking to plan, a further 4% (£8bn) reduction in TPAs in Q1
–
Core Tier 1 ratio 10.6%, RBS remains a highly capitalised bank
–
Good progress made against key metrics published in our Strategic Plan
Key Q1 10 Results Highlights
1 Note: All financial information contained in these materials in relation to the performance of the Group in the first quarter of the calendar year 2010, and comparisons of such data with the
fourth quarter of the calendar year 2009, the first quarter of the calendar year 2009 or any other period, are extracted without amendment from the announcement on 7 May 2010 of the financial results
of the Group for the end of the first quarter of the calendar year 2010
in its Interim Management Statement Q1 2010, disseminated to the London Stock Exchange via RNS announcement on that date.
Core Business (Retail & Commercial, GBM, GTS and Insurance)
Group profile
10
Funding–
Short Term wholesale funding reduced to £222bn (£128bn excluding bank deposits) in Q1 2010, on the way to target of under £150bn in 2013
–
c. £8bn of unguaranteed long-term issuance in Q1 2010 (£21bn 2009) covering a range of maturities.
–
Re-introducing issuance of different currencies to the funding platform and building the yield curve in existing markets for RBS name
–
Limited impact of run-off of Government funding schemes. Asset reduction outpaces maturities of CGS and SLS
–
Establishment of an FSA regulated RBS residential mortgage-backed Covered Bond programme launched on April 1st
2010
Liquidity–
Net Stable Funding Ratio1
of 90% as at Q110
-
up from 79% in at FY08
–
Significant increase in liquidity reserves; increasing from £90bn in FY08 to £165bn in Q110, with higher quality of liquidity
–
FSA-eligible government bonds portfolio in the Plc will increase under the current plan from £25bn at Q1 2010 to £50bn at 2013 to strengthen Group liquidity (£1bn FY08, £20bn FY09)
–
Ongoing collateral enablement effort to expand and diversify secured funding resources
Key Q1 10 Results Highlights
Funding
Liquidity
1
Net Stable Funding Ratio measures the level of net stable funding divided by long-term assets (RBS Definition)
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery
12
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery
Internal metrics
We have strong franchises in large customer-driven markets
Sustained and improving customer satisfaction levels
Remain well capitalised and can deliver our funding plan
Non-Core run-off drives the decline in risk concentrations and wholesale funding reliance
Strategic plan, investment and income initiatives drive sustainable growth
We can deliver good cost efficiency
Liability margins to improve –
asset margins to hold
Management execute the plan well and drive cultural change
Impairments trend to “normalised”
levels
External factors
World economic recovery continues
Strong but rational competition going forward
Interest rates normalise
Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
What are the necessary external factors and internal metrics to achieve the plan?
13
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery
External Factors
Internal Metrics
14
Current position
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
External factors
Possible risks
Outlook is better than expected 6-12 months agoUS and UK current account and savings deficits are starting to improveUK housing market has performed better than expectedConfidence in markets has improved but will remain sensitive to news flow and market developmentsLow interest rates have improved liquidity which could continue
World economic recovery continues
Economic growth faltersEconomic imbalancesSovereign credit risksWholesale funding, liquidity risksHarsh capital and liquidity regimes hinder growthInterest rates, inflation rise rapidly
Strong but rational competition - competitors have similar capital, funding and return targetsBanking, similar to other mature capital intensive industries, is relatively concentratedNew business margins are broadly consistent with industry return targetsIncreased industry funding costs e.g. liquidity, capital and funding need to be reflected as interest rates normaliseBanks are capital intensive and becoming more so and cannot survive without moving to exceed cost of capital (CoE 10-15%)
Strong but rational competition going forward
New market entrants / return of foreign banksIrrational behaviour from established competitorsReturn of irrational wholesale and securitisation marketsBanks move up risk profile again to generate increased returnsRegulatory intervention
Proposals published, but subject to consultation and impact assessment
Implementation likely phased so as not to destabilise Banking System
Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
More penal at implementation
Shortened timeline for introduction
Failure to gain global agreement, UK or EU ‘goes it alone’
UK and other Governments have been supportive
UK Government, through UKFI, has remained a constructive shareholder and operated in line with shareholder best practice
Government policy
Debates around industry structure, bank specific taxes and levies and Basel III capital / liquidity proposals
Impact of consumer legislation – e.g. overdraft fees
15
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery
External Factors
Internal Metrics
16
Our franchises have sustained market positions, with customer numbers steady or growing
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
Internal metrics
1 2010 Greenwich Associates H209 data (Large Corporate Banking study), rankings relate to Total Relationships. 2 Partnership, broker and other policies
UK Retail>12.8m current accounts
10m savings accounts#2 Current Accounts £4.9bn £89.4bn
Q1 Customer Numbers Market Positions Income FY09 Deposits Q110
UK Corporate
1.2m Business, Commercial & Corporate customers
#1 SME#1 Corporate & Commercial £3.6bn £91.4bn
Wealth 258,000 UK Wealth customers #1 Private Banking in the UK £1.1bn £36.4bn
GBM #1 UK, #3 Europe, #6 USA, #7 APAC1 Top tier in key product areas £11.0bn £47.0bn
Ulster 1.9m customer accounts#1 in Northern Ireland#3 in island of Ireland
£1.0bn £23.7bn
US R&C3.9m Retail
0.5m SME & CorporateTop 5 in 8 of top 10 markets in
which we operate £2.7bn £62.5bn
Insurance11.1m own brand policies
6.6m other policies2 #1 Motor insurance £4.5bn n.a.
GTS >1.2m customers#5 Trade Finance
#4 Merchant Acquirer£2.5bn £64.6bn
We have strong franchises in large customer-driven markets
17
Current Position
Mar
gin
To achieve the plan:
Current new business asset margins hold steady
Interest rates rise towards end of plan period
Group NIM 1.92% 1.83%
R&C NIM1 3.01% 3.01%
Q110 Q409
Outlook
Overall margin
Liability margins
R&C margin
GBM margin
Non-Core margin
Impact of funding & liquidity
Overall deposit margin
2011-13
Asset margins
Possible risks:Irrational competitionInterest rates remain near zero for extended period
GBM 1.11% 0.89%
Non-Core 1.25% 1.17%
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
Internal metrics
1 Underlying, adjusted for days in month; 2.97% (Q110) and 3.04% (Q409) on a reported basis
Liability margins to improve –
asset margins to hold
18
Investment -
major programmes underwayNon Interest Income -
Leveraging for growth
Investment In systems, proposition, technologies and staff
Cross-sell
Leverage group capabilities e.g:New affluent proposition in UK RetailGBM Capital Market products in UK CorporateNew Bancassurance platform in UlsterGTS products available across the corporate franchise
Customer relationships
Leveraging client relationships e.g:GBM – deepening corporate and FI relationships, focus on core clientsRetail & Commercial – increasing share of wallet through client cross-sell
5 year spend > £6bn to foster growth & efficiency
Example projects:
Multi-channel / internet development – c12% of spend–
UK Retail; build new channel platforms & capabilities–
UK Retail; migrate customers to remote channels & improve productivity
–
GTS; on-line portals/cash mgt/trade services
Reduce cost to serve – c55% of spend–
Group -
process efficiencies across business areas–
GBM -
automation of operational processes
Improve MI systems – c4% of spend
Improve & integrate infrastructure – c10% of spend –
UK Retail –
new sales management platform –
GBM –
enhanced trading platforms
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
Internal metrics
Strategic plan, investment and income initiatives drive sustainable growth
19
FY09 Cost reduction
programme
Impact of Disposals
Inflation Volume and
other1
Core costs broadly flat over the planning horizonImpact of inflation & volume growth in Core offset by business re-investment & cost reductionRump of Non-Core costs of c£300-400m expected in 2013, falling away rapidly thereafterTarget cost:income ratio of less than 50%
15.0
2.4
17.4
Non-CoreCore
£bn
Non-Core roll-off
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
Internal metrics
1 Includes FX impact
We can deliver good cost efficiency
20
Trend back towards historic levelsHistoric levels flattered by high loan growth in 2003-07 periodLarge Non-Core impairment reduction as portfolio runs off – small impairment charges remain in 2013-14
Recovery path not sustainedEvent risk – individual significant shocks
Outlook
Possible Risks
Impairments –
returning to normalised levels
Impairment as a % of net L&A
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
2003-07 avg: 0.5%
1998-2008 avg: 0.6%
~‘13
1.1%
2.5%
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
Internal metrics
Non-Core
Core
£bn
9.2
4.7
% of L&A
5.7
1.1
Impairments trend to “normalised”
levels
Reducing and managing riskFocus on composition of the RBS loan book
22
Reducing & managing risk
Improved risk policies & framework
Non-Core reduction on track
GBM de-leveraged and de-risked
Prime Core credit portfolios
23
The New Risk Agenda
Risk agenda –
delivering the 5 year plan with strong risk management
Strategy & PolicyAlignment – risk & business strategyGroup policy frameworkCapital / risk adjusted performance
Risk ArchitectureRisk systemsRisk data architectureAnalytics and modellingRisk information & reporting
Operating modelGovernanceOrganisation, people & cultureOne risk communityRegulatory and operational risk coverage
Risk Appetite & FrameworkCredit approvalMarket risk limits and controlsRisk concentrationsCountry riskScenario testing
New Head of Restructuring & Risk appointed in H1 2009 bringing significant changes to senior leadership in risk management function
Adoption of new, enhanced risk management framework and architecture including appointment of Board Risk Committee and Executive Risk Forum (ERF)
Disciplined RWA usage in the Core bank (value not volume) and total balance sheet size controlled and liquidity surprise avoided
Introduction of new and enhanced risk concentration limits –
reduced single name, sector and country limits
Appointment of Board Risk Committee and Executive Risk Forum (ERF)
Ongoing work to fully embed improved risk management framework
The Group has seen significant change in risk culture and process
Ongoing work to fully embed improved risk management framework including new reporting systems to increase transparency
24
Reduced exposures to CDPCs, monolines and conduits
Counterparty credit market exposures Total assets held by sponsored conduits
£bn
FY08 FY09 Q110
MonolinesCDPCs8.3
2.6 2.5
Group Credit Risks (REILs1)Significant reduction in exposure to monolines and CDPCs since FY08Exposure to loss from sponsored conduits has also been managed downNPLs2 are showing signs of stabilisation however our outlook remains cautious.Provisions as a percentage of NPLs2 have increased from 43% at FY09 to 46% as at Q110
£bnStabilising but our outlook remains cautious
0
20
40
60
FY07 FY08 H109 Q309 FY09 Q110
£bn
FY08 Q209 Q309 FY09 Q110
CoreNon Core
49.9
35.030.5 27.4 24.1
1
Risk Elements In Lending
2
Non Performing Loans
Risk profile –
worst should be past
25
1 Country and Sector charts are based on Credit Risk Assets –
see Report and Accounts for further details. Country chart shows ten largest countries rated A+ or below by domicile of borrower.
New frameworks, polices and limits in placeGood progress on de-risking, with proactive management of both Core and Non-Core exposuresReduced concentrations overall but more remains to be doneExposure to higher risk economies reducedGreek exposure is small, with <£1bn of credit risk assets and c. £1.5bn of Greek government debt securities (as at 31/3/10)
Reducing credit risk concentrations
Sector1Country1
Dec 2008 Dec 2008
Top 10 A+ and lower countries by credit risk assets
Top 10 Corporate industry sectors by credit risk assets
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Italy
India
China
Turkey
South Korea
Russia
Poland
Mexico
Romania
Portugal
£bn 0 20 40 60 80 100 120£bn
Transport & Storage
Wholesale & Retail
Tourism & Leisure
Power, Water & Waste
Natural Resources & Nuclear
Property
Manufacturing
TMT
Public Sector
Building
March 2010 March 2010
Portfolio concentrations continue to reduce
26
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q1100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q1100%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Impairments outlook
Group credit trends, Q109 –
Q110No. & value of wholesale cases transferred to Recoveries Units globally, Q408-Q110 (monthly average)
Impairments as a % of gross L&A (annualised)REILs
1
Average value transferred
Other1
Transport & StorageManufacturingConstruction
Wholesale & Retail TradeProperty
Average value transferred inc Ulster
Transfer to GRG reflecting revised management of Ulster non-core property portfolio
£bn
NPLs increased by 4%No individual large names in Q1Ulster Bank Core & Non-Core drove Q1 growth
Q1 continues previous trends seen in 2009No large individual casesUptick in commercial customers having problems –classic late cycle phenomenon
1 Other is spread across a large number of sectors and includes TMT, Tourism & Leisure and Business Services
Impairments appear to have peaked in Q209 but remain elevated
27
Reducing & managing risk
Improved risk policies & framework
Non-Core reduction on track
GBM de-leveraged and de-risked
Prime Core credit portfolios
28
Plan revised to reflect removal of c. £30 billion APS securitisation, which is no longer viable under final terms of APSFY 2013 targets revised to £20-40 billion, reflecting removal of securitisation that is partially offset by additional salesSales selected for pricing and capital preservation
Rollovers & drawings
Impairments
Asset sales
Breakdown of changes in TPAs2009-2013
Non Core third party assets (TPAs excluding derivatives & Sempra) run-off targets, £bn
252
143 11882
1871
20-40
2013
13
2012
19
2011
23
2010
29
2009
36
2008
85
c. 212
TPAsUndrawn commitments
Run-off
FX
(60)-(80)
(20)-(30)
20-30
(110)-(130)
(10)-(20)
Non-Core long term run-off targets
1 Excluding Sempra which had £14bn of assets as at 31 December 2009
Run-off is key to reducing risk on the balance sheet
29
Non-Core run-off1
current progress
£bn
Run-OffDisposalsImpairmentsFY 09
Non-Core assets reduced 4% (£8bn) during Q1 2010 on a reported basis
Excluding negative FX moves (£5bn), TPAs reduced 7% (£13bn)
Run-off driven by CRE, Corporate and Markets
Asset sales primarily Corporate
C. £40bn targeted reduction pa. Excluding the FX movement Q110 is ontrack for FY2010
1 Third party assets excluding Sempra, excluding mark to market derivatives2 Run-off, MTM, disposals, impairments and FX
187
Mvmt2FY08 FX Q110
(2) (2) (9) 5 179
252 (65)
Significant progress already achieved on Non-Core run-off
301 Excluding MTM derivatives and Sempra
Based on data from RBS risk systems Total Assets = £252bn Total Assets = £187bn
2008 Y/E TPAs1
by asset class
Project & Export Finance £21.3bnAsset Finance £24.2bnLeveraged Finance £15.9bnCorp & Warehouse Loans £41.6bn
UK £26.0bn Ireland £9.9bnRest of Europe £15.1bnUS £7.3bnAPAC £2.9bn
Structured Credit Portfolio £20.1bnEquities £5.0bnCredit Collateral Financing £8.6bnExotic Credit Trading £1.4bnOther £6.2bn
UK Mortgages & Personal Lending £3.2bnUS Mortgages & Personal Lending £11.0bnIreland Mortgages £6.5bn
RBS Insurance £2.0bnRetail & Commercial Countries £6.7bnBank of China / Linea Directa £4.5bnOther Whole businesses £4.2bnABN AMRO Shared Assets £1.5bnAsset Management £1.9bn
Corporate
Commercial Property
Markets
Retail
Other2009 Y/E TPAs1
by asset class
Project & Export Finance £20.6bn Asset Finance £22.2bnLeveraged Finance £13.1bnCorp & Warehouse Loans £23.2bn
UK £23.6bn Ireland £8.1bnEurope £13.0bnUS £4.7bnAPAC £2.3bn
Structured Credit Portfolio £14.9bnEquities £2.0nCredit Collateral Financing £4.8bnOther £2.9bn
UK Mortgages & Personal Lending £2.4bnUS Mortgages & Personal Lending £7.8bnIreland Mortgages £6.1bn
Corporate
Commercial Property
Markets
Retail
Other
12
16
25
52 3
79
RBS Insurance £1.5bnRetail & Commercial Countries £4.3bnOther Whole Businesses £3.3bnABN AMRO Shared Assets £1.3bnAsset Management £1.6bn
SMEUK SME £2.3bnUS SME £1.6bn
SMEUK SME £1.9bnUS SME £0.9bn
21
21
41
61
103
4
Good run-off progression across all asset classes
Non-Core make up by division
31
Non-Core impairments1
stabilised in Q1
Property Manufacturing OtherCorporate
Mortgages Other personal Other Total Non-Core
Q109 Q309 Q409 Q110
Non-Core impairments by asset type Q109, Q409 & Q1102, £bn
1.8 1.7
Q110£m
Q110% L&A1
Q409% L&A1
FY09% L&A1
Q1 10 Key Sector Impairments:
UK Retail 5 0.8 1.1 2.1 Mortgage & Personal lending
UK Corporate 155 1.9 3.9 4.8 Property & construction 34% of total
Ulster Bank2 552 13.0 7.0 8.3 Property £461m, 84% of total
US R&C 208 7.4 7.6 9.7 SBO/Home Equity £102m, and CRE £63m -
80% of total
GBM 753 3.6 4.1 4.9 Property £472m, 62% of total
Other 31 3.7 6.5 9.3 Mainly Wealth
Total 1,704 4.6 4.6 5.7 Absence of large individual cases but with Ulster Bank remaining at elevated levels
1.8
1 Excludes Available for sale impairments. 2
Includes EMEA.
2.1Non-Core provision coverage of 39%, +300bps q-o-q
Impairments appear to have stabilised, albeit at elevated levels
32
Reducing & managing risk
Improved risk policies & framework
Non-Core reduction on track
GBM de-leveraged and de-risked
Prime Core credit portfolios
33
GBM -
Strategy
GBM Summary –
FY07 vs FY09 & Q110FY07
“Old”
GBM Core GBM FY09 Q110
Income, £bn 9.11 6.7 11.0 2.8
Costs, £bn (5.8)2 (5.1) (4.7) (1.3)
Profit, £bn 3.21 1.5 5.7 1.5
ROE, % 10.8% 10.4% 30.7% 28.4%
Balance Sheet, £bn 873.8 617.3 412.2 443.7
People 24,100 20,900 16,8003 n.d
Distribution of Core Clients
57%43%
FI’s
Corporates
Core GBM
~5,800
“Old GBM”
26,000+ Client base
Focus on core clients
Top 5 wholesale bank in chosen marketsFewer, deeper client relationshipsClear product choicesGlobal, focused on major hubs
Financing and risk management-led “Flow monster”Leadership in fixed incomeEnhanced equity and advisory
Tight risk, capital and funding control
Sustainable efficient platform
New management team
GBM strategy refocused to a capital efficient business model
1
Core + Non Core2
Source: GBM Finance (Core only, excluding Sempra)3 Source: Published FY09 financials (Core only, excluding Sempra)
34
GBM –
De-leveraged and de-risked
GBM balance sheet, £bn
FY07 ‘Old GBM’
R C
FY09 GBM Core
R C
Q110 GBM Core
CR
874
412360
444381
R –
ReportedC –
Constant CurrencyReverse ReposLoans & Advances
Securities
OtherSettlement balances
Continued focus on de-leveraging
56% reduction from FY07 CFX
Remaining within target range of c£400-450bn
FX driving £11bn (33%) of Q110 growth
Settlement Balances driving £12bn (37%) of Q110 growth
Excluding FX and Settlement Balances, total assets declined 1% Q-o-Q
Continuing focus on deleveraging and risk management
Loan Impairments by quarter (£m)269
(31)
272
130
32
Recent impairments lower than Q109 & Q309 peaks,Future quarterly trend likely to be ‘lumpy’ given nature of counterpartiesRisk for larger impairments in 2010 remains high, outer-year outlook will develop alongside the developing economic picture
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
35
Reducing & managing risk
Improved risk policies & framework
Non-Core reduction on track
GBM de-leveraged and de-risked
Prime Core credit portfolios
36
Group loan portfolio breakdown
Breakdown of Loans & Advances (Q110 Gross, £612bn)1
UK Retail17%
UK Corporate19%
Wealth2%
GBM22%
GTS2%
Ulster6%
US R&C8%
Non-Core24%
Loan Impairments (£bn)3
A well diversified portfolio with UK Retail and Corporate representing c. 36%, GBM c. 22% and other divisions c. 18% of gross loansNon Core loans < 25% of assets, but approximately two thirds of impairments per quarterImpairments plateauing in Core and demonstrating improvements in Non Core though volatility remains likely
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.31.0
1.8
3.5
2.11.8 1.7
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Core impairments Non Core impairments
1 Gross loans and advances including provisions.
2 GBM loans and advances include L&A to banks 3
Figures represent loan impairments as percentage of gross loans
& advances
2
Well diversified loan portfolio across geographies and customer segments
2.8%
8.2%
5.4%
4.6% 4.6%
0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2%
0.9%
37
Core Retail1
Loan Book
Core Retail L&A by geography (Q110 Gross, £168bn) Core Retail L&A by product
76 % 76 % 77 % 78 % 78 %
12% 12% 12% 11% 12%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
9% 8% 8% 7% 7%
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110Retail / Secured Personal
UK71%
Ulster11%
US18%
Strategic focus shifted to generating mortgages through retail branch networks with secured lending now representing over 78% of the book – share of UK mortgage market increased significantly in 2008/09Ulster Bank represents 11% of retail loans with the balance originating in the USUnsecured personal loans and credit cards gradually declining through exit from non-bank channels and falling demand as customers reduce overall debt levels
Cards Other
1 Retail comprises UK Retail, Wealth, and retail parts of Ulster and US R&C
Core Retail exposure dominated by secured, prime residential mortgages
£164bn £159bn £164bn £165bn £168bn
38
UK
Ret
ail4
Mortgage Book Loan To Values
98% of the UK mortgage book is Core and only 7% buy-to-letAverage LTV of 59% (67% for the buy-to-let portfolio)Rising house prices in H2 09 led to reduction in value of houses over 95% LTV
61
32 2715 11 85813
2227
54
1115192935
61 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09
>50% >90%>80%>75% >95% >100%
Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume1
%
Uls
ter B
ank4 59
40 3729 24 20
913182732
53
1519243236
56Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09
>50% >90%>80%>75% >95% >100%
Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume2
%
US
R&
C5
919
34
5161
70
1730
4457
6674 Dec-08 Dec-09
>50% >80%>70%>60% >90% >100%
Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume %
Average indexed LTV of 63%Mortgage impairments 0.8% of loans and advancesContinued stress in the Irish residential mortgage market since H2 09
Average LTV of 72%, 67.5% excluding SBO3
SBO3 portfolio fully moved into Non CoreAverage FICO of 737Origination focused in mature and stable markets of New England and Mid-Atlantic
1Excludes wealth and business offset mortgages
2 LTV basis current value by volume
3 Serviced by others
4 Core
5
Including Core and Non-Core
Mortgage lending further protected by low average LTVs
39
Core Retail1
Loan Impairments by product (£m) RBS UK mortgage arrears vs. CML2
88 106167
77 106
195
299247
282 233
137
130 131
134106
82
60 3262
72
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110Mortgages4 Personal
2 Council of Mortgage Lenders
3 3 months average 4 Including Home Equity
-
0.5 %
1.0 %
1.5 %
2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 %
Q4 '03 Q4 '04 Q4 '05 Q4 '06 Q4 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09
CML 3+ % RBS & NW 3+ %Cards Other
Overall retail impairments are seen to be plateauing, albeit at elevated levelsImpairment reduction seen predominantly through the unsecured area; derived from a combination of exiting non-bank channels and reduced demand as households de-leverRBS’s mortgage impairments are stable in absolute terms and are trending below industry trends
3
1 Retail comprises UK Retail, Wealth, and retail parts of Ulster and US R&C
Mortgage arrears trending below industry average
Core Retail credit trends
502
595 577 555 517
40
Core Corporate Loan Book
Core Corporate1
L&A by geography (Q110 Gross, £155bn) Core Corporate L&A by sector (£bn)2
36.6 35.2 34.7 34.2 33.8
5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.78.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.87 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.4
10.5 10.1 10.1 9.8 10.14.6 4.5 6.3 6.56.3 6.1 6 5.7 5.8
38.1 36.6 36.8 36.1 38.2
24.220.5 20.5 19.5 20.5
22.821.2 21.9 21.1 20.3
6.1
0
50
100
150
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Property Housebuilding & constructionAsset & invoice finance Hotels & restaurantsWholesale & retail trade, repairs Banks & FIManufacturing OtherUS Corporate Ulster Corporate
UK74%
Ulster13%
US13%
Corporate loan book well diversified by productUK Corporate represents circa 74% of the corporate lending portfolioPortfolio concentration reducing towards a more balanced business mix
1 Corporate comprises UK Corporate and Corporate sections of Ulster and US R&C
2 US and Ulster Corporate sector breakdown not provided
164154 156 152 155
Core Corporate1
loan book (£155bn as at Q110)
41
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Total
Other
ResidentialDevelopment
CommercialDevelopment
ResidentialInvestment
CommercialInvestment
Q110FY09
Total Commercial Real Estate Exposure
1 Includes Core and Non-Core portfolios
3 Investment properties are income generating, ie occupied with a tenant 2 2009 restated on a comparable basis
4
Development is any stage through construction but will include speculative deals that remain empty.
GBM3%
UK Corporate37%
Ulster11%
US R&C5%
Non-Core44%
Global exposure has remained broadly stable (£85.2bn at Q110 vs £86.3bn at FY 09) of which 44% has been transferred to Non CoreGBM interest cover ratio (ICR) 1.60x1, UK Corporate ICR 1.64x1
Exposure principally dominated by commercial investment properties, c. 60% of total exposureLow interest rates are supporting ongoing debt-servicingCredit quality remains under pressure but no major shift from year-end
Global CRE portfolio by division (Q1 10, £85.2bn) Global CRE portfolio by sector (Q1 10, £85.2bn)
5051
1313
910
1211
11
8586
3
3
4
4
Credit quality remains under pressure but no major shift from year-end
42
Core Corporate & Commercial credit trends
Core UK Corporate Loan Impairments by product (£m) UK Business Banking (SME) –
Debtflows1
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10Property Asset & invoice finance
Impairments have risen since Q1 09 reflecting the deteriorating economic environment during the yearQ2 09 impairments included a charge of £271m for latent loss provisioningImpairments charge has been biased towards the housebuilding, property and construction sectorsExcluding latent loss provisioning, impairments appear to have stablised in recent quarters albeit at high levels; though the financial condition of many clients remains delicate
1 Debt flow rate is calculated by looking at the monthly default balances (also known as transfer into recoveries or debt flow) as
a
% of total Loans & Receivables in that month
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09
Debtflow as % of balances
Housebuilding & Construction Hotels & RestaurantsOther
100
450
187 190 186
Core Corporate impairments are stabilising albeit at elevated levels
Total Portfolio £18.5bn; Core £16.3bn, Non-Core £2.2bn
Funding & LiquidityGood progress made, more to do
44
FY07
1,322
1 Tier 1 leverage ratio is based on total tangible assets (after netting derivatives) divided by Tier 1 capital2 Tangible equity leverage ratio is based on total tangible equity
divided by total tangible assets (after netting derivatives) 3 Excluding Sempra
£bn
1,084
FY09
Funded balance sheet road map FY07 –
Q110
1,227
FY08
Total BS decreased by £636bn since FY08 despite £75bn increase in the liquidity portfolio to £165bn at Q110
Long run funded balance sheet target of £1.1trn
Significantly reduced leverage ratio of 17.6x (vs 23x at the worst point)
On-going risk reduction
Key Ratios
FY 2009 Q1 2010
Leverage ratio1 17.0x 17.6x
Tangible common equity ratio2 5.2% 5.1%
Tangible equity per share 51.3p 51.5p
Core Tier 1 Ratio 11.0% 10.6%
0
1,500
FX vs FY09Liquidity portfolio
Q110
1,121
Overall deleveraging progress in line with plan
Ongoing de-leveraging
45
Funding and Liquidity
1
Net of provisions 2 Net loans & advances to customers less customer deposits (excluding repos)1
Net of provisions 2 Net loans & advances to customers less customer deposits (excluding repos)
Wholesale funding maturity£bn
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY08 HY09 FY09 Q110
> 5 years 1 - 5 years < 1 year
Reduction of £42bn in overall wholesale funding requirements between FY08 and Q110 Absolute wholesale funding greater than 1 year remains stable despite total wholesale funding requirement declining. Mix of wholesale funding greater than 1 year increases to 53%, +3% from FY09 Strong term issuance programme with over £8bn of public and private unguaranteed issuance in Q110 €15bn covered bond programme registered with the FSA on 01 April 2010
Stable >1yr absolute funding
Reduction in funding
requirement seen in short term bucket
55% 53% 50% 47%
Key Funding Metrics Key Funding Metrics
H109 FY09 Q110
Loan:deposit ratio (Group)1 143% 135% 131%
Core 110% 104% 102%
Loan:deposit gap (Group)2 £180bn £142bn £131bn
Core £41bn £16bn £10bn
Liquidity reserves £121bn £171bn £165bn
Of which central govt bond portfolio: £7bn £20bn £25bn
Net Stable Funding Ratio3 83% 90% 90%
Wholesale funding > 1 year4 47% 50% 53%
3
Net Stable Funding Ratio measures the level of net stable funding divided by long-term assets4
Excluding bank deposits
Reducing wholesale funding requirements
46
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
TPAs2008 1H09 2012e2011eFY09 2010e 2013e
Non-Core third party assets (TPAs excl MTMs) run-
off targets1
trend with the Group Loan:Deposit gap
1
Run-off at constant year-end 2008 FX rates2
Net customer loans less customer deposits excluding repos3 Maturing term funding includes government guaranteed MTNs, unguaranteed MTNs and subordinated debt. Figures exclude RBS NV (£15bn total)
Loan to deposit gap2
0
10
20
30
40
50
Run-off of Non-Core TPAs p.a.
Refinancing requirement outweighed by run-off in
Non-Core third party assets2
Reduction in the loan to deposit gap expected to continue trending closely with the run-off of Non-Core TPAsFuture wholesale funding requirement is significantly outweighed by the level of run-off from Non-Core TPAs
2012e2011e2010e 2013eGroup maturing term funding p.a.3
£bn £bn
Funding and Liquidity
Refinancing requirement outweighed by run-off in Non-Core
BenchmarkingWell capitalised, funding & liquidity still improving
48
Well capitalised, funding & liquidity still improving
UK Banks (FY09)
RBS Core
BarclaysHSBCLloyds Banking Group
Standard Chartered
European Banks (FY09)Credit SuisseDeutsche BankSantander
UBS
Loan
to
Dep
osit
Rat
io
104%
130%77%
80%
169%
83%100%135%
75%
Fund
ing
Gap
£(16)bn
£(109)bn£146bn
£29bn
£(289)bn
£29bn£8bn
£(172)bn
£60bn
Impa
irmen
t ch
arge
to
Gro
ss L
oans
1.1%
1.7%2.7%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%1.0%1.4%
0.6%
Prov
isio
ns
cove
rage
of
NPL
s
67%
42%57%
44%
71%
61%37%73%
39%
Liqu
idity
R
eser
ve
£127bn£58bn
£151bn
n/d
n/d£49bn£89bn
n/d
10.0%9.4%
8.1%
8.9%
11.2%8.7%8.6%
11.9%
Cor
e Ti
er 1
ra
tio
Green
–
Better than RBS
Blue –
In-line with RBS Red
–
Worse than RBS
RBS Group 135% £(142)bn 2.3% 43% £171bn 11.0%
Further to go Middle of the pack Amongst the best
RBS remains among the best capitalised banks compared to the UK and European peer group
RBS in the middle of the pack for impairments against UK peers
Majority of our impairments (63%) generated by the Non-Core division which is meeting its reduction targets
Group loan:deposit ratio is improving, reducing from 151% at FY08 to 131% at Q1 2010
Core loan:deposit ratio already at 102%
Among the best capitalised banks in the peer group
US Banks (FY09)
Bank of America MLCitiJP MorganWells Fargo
87%66%64%92%
£56bn£151bn£136bn£25bn
5.4%6.6%4.5%2.8%
108%107%160%91%
£75bnn/an/an/a
7.8%10.9%8.8%6.5%
RBS Rank (Core/Group)
RBS Rank (Core/Group)
RBS Rank (Core/Group) 3rd/4th 3rd/4th 2nd/3rd 2nd/4th 1st 1st
4th/~4th 4th/4th 5th/5th 2nd/4th 1st 3rd
5th/5th 5th/5th 1st/1st 5th/5th n/m 1st
RBS Overall Rank 10th/~11th 10th/11th 6th/7th 7th/10th 1st 3rd
Concluding remarks
50
Conclusion
Leading positions in all our customer businesses
Strong, predictable and resilient business performance
Top tier market franchises
Complementary portfolio with clear cohesion logic and synergies
Balanced by geography, growth, risk profile and business cycleBalanced portfolio
Commitment to RoE >15% on an expanded equity base
Attractive and sustainable income characteristics
Solid profitability and attractive return potential
Clean balance sheet with a CT1 target >8%
Criteria for standalone AA category rating met
Low volatility underpinned by strong balance sheet
Proven management track record, universal disciplines in place
Roadmap to orderly UK Government stake sell down
Standalone strength and solid foundations
Transparent and responsive communication with few negative surprises
Clearly articulated strategy with evidence of it workingInvestor friendly
Delivering the plan should create an attractive investment case
The New RBS in 2013
Appendices
52
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
53
Subdued loan growth as economies recover slowly and customers delever
RBS deposit growth marginally ahead of nominal GDP growth; c4-5% p.a.
Interest rates move and “normalise” from 2011
1
Consensus economics (April 2010 survey)2 Claimants count
Outlook is better than expected 6-12 months ago
US and UK current account and savings deficits are starting to improve
UK housing market has performed better than expected
Confidence in markets has improved but will remain sensitive to news flow and market developments
Low interest rates have improved liquidity which could continue
Economic growth falters
Economic imbalances
Sovereign credit risks
Wholesale funding, liquidity risks
Harsh capital and liquidity regimes hinder growth
Interest rates, inflation rise rapidly
Current position
Possible Risks
Assumptions
Consensus Economic Data1
UK (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP1 -4.9 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.4
Unemployment2 5.2 5.2 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Inflation (CPI)1 2.2 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.5
US (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013GDP1 -2.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2
Unemployment 2 9.6 9.1 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
External factors
World economic recovery continues
54
Strong but rational competition
Banking, similar to other mature capital intensive industries, is relatively concentrated
New business margins are broadly consistent with industry return targets
Increased industry funding costs e.g. liquidity, capital and funding need to be reflected as interest rates normalise
Competitors have similar capital, funding and return targets
Banks are capital intensive and becoming more so and cannot survive without moving to exceed cost of capital (CoE 10-15%)
Current position and outlook
New market entrants / return of foreign banks
Irrational behaviour from established competitors
Return of irrational wholesale and securitisation markets
Banks move up risk profile again to generate increased returns
Regulatory intervention
Possible risks
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
External factors
Strong but rational competition going forward
55
Capital –
RWA
impacts
2010 2011 2012 2013
BASEL II CHANGES e.g.:Stressed VaRCorrelation Trading Book
CHANGES TO CAPITAL DEDUCTIONS e.g.:Deferred Tax AssetsMaterial holdingsPension deficit
Observations:Proposals published, but subject to consultation and impact assessmentImplementation likely phased so as not to destabilise Banking System
2014
To be phased in from 2012
Liquidity LIQUIDITY REQUIREMENTS:Increased liquidity reservesCosts of holding
Risks:More penal at implementationShortened timeline for introductionFailure to gain global agreement, UK or EU ‘goes it alone’
Counterparty & OTC Derivative reforms expected to impact RWAs from 2012
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
External factors
Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
56
UK and other Governments have been supportive ̶ Liquidity and funding support can now wind down̶ Crucial task for RBS to provide opportunity for UK Government to
sell down stake profitably
UK Government, through UKFI, has remained a constructive shareholder and operated in line with shareholder best practice
Debates around:̶ Industry structure̶ Bank specific taxes and levies̶ Basel III capital and liquidity proposals
Impact of consumer legislation – e.g. overdraft fees
Lending commitments 2010: ̶ Residential lending –
make available £8bn net ̶ Business lending –
make available £50bn gross new facilitiesCompetition – EU mandated sales
Risks
RBSCommitments
Support
Building blocks of the RBS Recovery –
External factors
Government policy
57
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
58
Peers ratings sorted in descending order by Moody’s ratingRatings correct as at 20th
May 2010
Credit Agency Ratings –
LT Issuer Ratings
Peer’s Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Aa1 AA- AA-
Credit Suisse AG Aa1 A+ AA-
BNP Paribas Aa2 AA AA
HSBC Bank plc Aa2 AA AA
Santander Aa2 AA AA
BBVA Aa2 AA AA-
Société
Génerale Aa2 A+ A+
Barclays Bank Aa3 AA- AA-
RBS Aa3 A+ AA-
Bank of Scotland Plc Aa3 A+ AA-
Lloyds TSB Bank Aa3 A+ AA-
Nationwide Aa3 A+ AA-
Deutsche Bank Aa3 A+ AA-
Bank of America NA Aa3 A+ A+
ING Bank NV Aa3 A+ A+
UBS Aa3 A+ A+
Commerzbank AG Aa3 A A+
Goldman Sachs Aa3 A A+
Citibank NA A1 A+ A+
Morgan Stanley Bank NA A1 A+ A+
UniCredit Bank AG A1 A A+
Standard Chartered Bank A2 A+ A+
RBS Group Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch
RBS (Bank Level) Aa3 A+ AA-
RBS (Group Level) A1 A AA-
NatWest (Bank) Aa3 A+ AA-
RBS Citizens A2 A- A+
Ulster Bank Ltd A2 A A+
Ulster Bank Ireland Ltd A2 A A+
RBS NV A2 A+ AA-
59
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
60
RBS NV
S&P: A+/A-1/StableMoody’s: A2/P-1/StableFitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
RBS plc
S&P: A+/A-1/StableMoody’s: Aa3/P-1/StableFitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
RBS Group plc
S&P: A/A-1/StableMoody’s: A1/P-1/StableFitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
Ulster
S&P: A/A-1/StableMoody’s: A2/P-1/NegativeFitch: A+/F1+/Stable
CP/CD
MTN
Securitisation
Covered Bond
Diversity of wholesale funding programmes, across maturities and
markets to support Group needs
€10bn ECP$10bn USCP
€20bn ECP€20bn French CD $12.5bn USCP
A$20bn Australian ECP & ECD€25bn ECP€20bn French CD
€12bn ECP€10bn French CD
£90bn EMTN$35bn USMTNWKSI SEC Shelf No Limit
£90bn EMTN$35bn USMTNWKSI SEC Shelf No Limit
Securitisation programme
€15bn CB programme registered with FSA on 01 April 2010
£90bn EMTN, $35bn USMTN & WKSI SEC Shelf can be issued out of either RBSG or RBS plc
Wholesale Funding Issuance Programmes
61
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
62
Wholesale residual maturity excl. bank deposits (£271bn)Total funding (£796bn)
Capital securities,
£31.9bn, 4%
Securitisations, £18.6bn, 2%
MTNs, £126.6bn, 16%
CDs, £57.4bn, 7%
CP, £36.6bn, 5%Bank deposits, £100.2bn, 13%
Customer deposits,
£425.1bn, 53%
Wholesale funding requirement, Q110
Strong progress on terming out of wholesale funding requirements with 53% of funding greater than 1 year versus 45% at FY08, driven in the main by a reduction in the wholesale funding requirement1 from £313bn to £271bnFunding across a number of different currencies including GBP (c. 20%), USD (c. 40%), EUR (c.25%) and Other (c. 15%)2
1
Excluding bank deposits
2
Approximate figures
Less than 1 year, 127.9bn,
47%
1-5 years, 79.9bn, 30%
More than 5 years, 62.3bn,
23%
63
20 25
28 20
10 14
52 42
4246
2017
Central Group Treasury Portfolio Treasury BillsOther government securities Cash and central bank balancesUnencumbered collateral Other liquid assets
Build-up of liquidity reserves
RBS’s contingent liquidity reserves continue to grow in line with new regulatory liquidity reformsCredit risk associated with liquidity reserves is well controlledFSA eligible liquidity portfolio will constitute UK, US and G10 European government bond issues only
£165bn£171bn
£90bn
Q110Q409FY08 Q209 Q309
£140bn
£121bn
Continued progress in increasing the strength of liquidity reserves
Liquidity reserves
64
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
65
UK Retail UK Corporate Ulster Bank US R&C GBM Total Core
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Core impairments by division Q109 –
Q1103, £bn
1.3
1 Impairments as a % of L&A excludes Available for Sale 2 Includes Wealth, GTS, RBS Insurance and Central Items.
Q110£m
Q110% L&A1
Q409% L&A1
FY09% L&A1
Q110 Key Sector Impairments:
UK Retail 387 1.5 1.8 1.6 A reduction in unsecured charges; mortgage growth reflects increased provisions
UK Corporate 186 0.7 0.7 0.8 Broadly spread, but property related sectors most prominent
Ulster Bank 218 2.3 3.5 1.6 Lower, primarily as a result of a Q409 non recurring latent provision
US R&C 143 1.0 1.3 1.4 Broadly stable performance; good improvement in Corporate & Commercial
GBM 32 0.1 0.6 0.6 Minimal charge reflecting absence of large single name provisions
Other2 5 n.m. 0.2 0.3 Small charge in Wealth
Total Core 971 0.9 1.2 1.1 25% decline sequentially driven by improving trends in UK & US Retail
1.0
1.11.2
1.0
Core provision coverage of 59%, +200bps q-o-q
Core impairments
66
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
67
Risk Management risk agenda
Market risk framework
Integrated stress testing and scenarios
Activity
Operating Model
Regulatory risk and operational risk framework & controls
Strategy & Policy
Alignment of risk & business strategy
One risk community
Rationalise group policy framework
Improved governance
Organisation, people & culture
Capital / risk adjusted performance
Risk Appetite & Framework
Credit approval framework
Concentration risk framework & limits
Country risk framework
Risk appetite and framework
Operating Model
Strategy and Policy
Risk architecture
EmbeddingDevelopment
2009 2010 2011 2012
Risk Architecture
Regulatory risk and operational risk framework & controls
Risk systemsRisk data architectureAnalytics and modellingRisk information and reporting
68
Adopting a new Risk Framework
Strategic Risk Profile Maintain Capital Adequacy
Deliver Stable Earnings Growth
Stable / Efficient Access to Funding
Maintain Market Confidence
Key Risk Appetite Measures RWA Mgmt
Capital Allocation
Stressed ratios
Leverage Ratios
Earnings Volatility
Value at Risk
Credit Volatility
Cost of Funding
Leverage Ratios
Stressed measures
Target Agency Rating of AA
Reputation Risk
Credit Risk Single Name Concentration
Sector Concentration
Asset Class and Product
Market Risk Value at Risk
Sensitivities
Treasury Capital
Balance Sheet Risks Funding & Liquidity
Operational Risk
Policy Standards
Regulatory Risk
Policy Standards
Country Risk Policy Standards
A
C
BBoard Risk Committee
Risk ManagementDay to day risk
management
Det
aile
d R
isk
App
etite
Stra
tegy
and
hi
gh le
vel R
isk
App
etite
Key Risk Appetite Measures
B
Risk Limits
C
Group Strategy
Strategic Risk Profile
A Board
ERF
69
1
Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), instalment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types. Asset Quality (AQ) bands allow the internal reporting and oversight of risk assets by differentiating on the basis of the key drivers of default for a customer type. Bands also map to asset quality and wholesale exposure scales, enabling detailed internal and external reporting of risk depending on audience and business need
2
A further £31bn of assets are covered by the standardised approach for which a PD equivalent to those assigned to assets covered by the internal ratings based approach is not available.
Normal monitoring
Non-performing bookHeightened monitoring
Portfolio performance
£bn
Normal monitoring
o/w Financial institutions
o/w Corporates andPersonal
Heightened monitoring
o/w Financial institutions
o/w Corporates andPersonal
Defaulted assets
Total
491
362
50
12
38
16
557
493
107
386
72
27
45
13
578
HY 2009 FY 2009
129
Exposure by division
Portfolio by division, %
0 10 20 30 40
Other
GTS
Wealth
Ulster Bank
US R&C
UK Retail
UK Corporate
GBM
£110bn
£103bn
£52bn
£42bn
£16bn
£7bn
£3bn
Exposure1,2 risk rating
Portfolio by grade, %
0 5 10 15 20 25
AQ10
AQ9
AQ8
AQ7
AQ6
AQ5
AQ4
AQ3
AQ2
AQ1
Average AQ = 4.4
£124bn
£13bn
£27bn
£85bn
£108bn
£78bn
£43bn
£21bn
£11bn
£16bn
£224bn
Portfolio quality –
Core overview
70
Portfolio performance
£bn
Normal monitoring
o/w Financial institutions
o/w Corporates andpersonal
Heightened monitoring
o/w Financial institutions
o/w Corporates andPersonal
Defaulted assets
Total
Exposure by division
Portfolio by division, %
0 25 50 75 100
Non-Core
Normal monitoring
Non-performing bookHeightened monitoring
98
10
88
41
8
33
21
160
HY 2009
98
13
85
30
6
24
23
151
FY 2009
£151bn
Exposure1 risk rating
Portfolio by grade, %
0 10 20
AQ2
AQ1
AQ10
AQ9
AQ8
AQ7
AQ6
AQ5
AQ4
AQ3
Average AQ = 5.6
£2bn
£17bn
£6bn
£21bn
£27bn
£19bn
£6bn
£14bn
£5bn
£23bn
1
Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), instalment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types. Asset Quality (AQ) bands allow the internal reporting and oversight of risk assets by differentiating on the basis of the key drivers of default for a customer type. Bands also map to asset quality and wholesale exposure scales, enabling detailed internal and external reporting of risk depending on audience and business need
2
A further £11bn of assets are covered by the standardised approach for which a PD equivalent to those assigned to assets covered by the internal ratings based approach is not available.
Portfolio quality –
Non-Core overview
71
Exposure by sector
Portfolio by sector, %0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Agriculture and Fisheries
Business Services
Power, Water & Waste
Tourism and Leisure
Natural Resourcesand Nuclear
Building
Public Sectors & Quasi-Government TMT
Wholesale and retail trade Transport and Storage Manufacturing Property Banks, other FIsPersonal
1
Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types
Normal monitoring
Heightened monitoring
Non-performing book
Exposure by region
Portfolio by region, %0 10 20 30 40 50
Middle East & Africa
CEE & Central Asia
Latin America
Asia & Pacific
North America
Western Europe(Excluding UK)
United Kingdom £272bn
£134bn
£89bn
£29bn
£14bn
£10bn
£9bn
£165bn
£134bn
£57bn
£31bn
£31bn
£25bn
£17bn
£22bn
£19bn
£16bn
£13bn
£12bn
£12bn
£3bn
Core portfolio quality –
by region and sector
72
Exposure by sectorExposure by region
0 10 20 30 40
Middle East & Africa
CEE & Central Asia
Latin America
Asia & Pacific
North America
Western Europe(Excluding UK)
United Kingdom
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Agriculture and FisheriesBusiness Services
Public Sectors & Quasi-Government
Tourism and Leisure
Natural Resources and Nuclear
Wholesale and retail trade
Power, Water & Waste Building
Manufacturing
TMT
Transport and Storage Banks, other FIsPersonal Property
1
Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types
Normal monitoring
Heightened monitoring
Non-performing book
Portfolio by region, % Portfolio by sector, %
£50bn
£25bn
£48bn
£10bn
£9bn
£6bn
£3bn
£46bn
£21bn
£19bn
£15bn
£6bn
£5bn
£5bn
£4bn
£3bn
£2bn
£0bn
£7bn
£8bn
£10bn
Non-core portfolio quality –
by region and sector
73
Appendices
Funding programmes
Core Impairments
Risk
External factors
Peer group credit ratings
GBM
Funding and liquidity
74
+
–
Profit days (#) Loss days (#) Total Profit days (%) Loss days (%)H2 08 94 38 132 71% 29%H1 09 123 2 125 98% 2%H2 09 115 14 129 89% 11%
Note: Chart data shows GBM’s daily Markets revenues (excluding Sempra)
1 July 08 31 Dec 091 Jan 09 1 July 09
■
Radical upgrading of front office risk management frameworks
■
Moved VaR to 99 percentile tail risk
■
Created a market leading Counterparty Exposure Management business
■
GBM’s daily profitability improved considerably in 2009
Progress to date -
Risk revolution
75
GBM –
De-leveraged and de-risked
46
94
1231
73
74
82
Q409
188224 205
155 156128
225 166161
156 164
137
207
8981
75 75
73
35
2029
5264
74
Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409
1
Short Term Markets and Financing (“STMF”) includes repo financing and Money Markets.2 Cash collateral posted in relation to derivative liabilities across GBM.3 Deals pending settlement4 Lending portfolio also includes a proportion of assets that could be liquidated swiftly, prices depend on market conditions.
Loan
Trading Assets
Reverse Repo
Cash & T- bills
GBM Core Assets
Lending portfolio4
Debt Securities
Derivative collateral (booked in CEM)2
Equity sharesOther (mainly DPS3)
Reverse Repo
Cash & T-bills
31%
22%
26%
3%Flow Credit9%
MortgageTrading
9%
OtherEmerging Markets
STMF
Flow Rates Trading
12%
69%
11%
STMF
Flow Rates Trading
Equities8%
Other
Proportion of liquidity in GBM Core Assets (Q409)
Debt Securities & Reverse Repo held by businesses
476
438459
655
499
Note: Reverse repo in Flow Rates Trading is managed by STMF
412
2
Significant reduction in debt securities and reverse repo in H208
80% of GBM Core Assets in Q409 are liquid assets
STMF1 + Flow Rates Trading = 80%
These are high grade, very short term assets
STMF + Flow Rates Trading = 53%
These are high grade debt securities
Also highly liquid
76
11
50
27
144254
Other3
23
EquitiesL&AT billsDebt securities & reverse
repos
Non- derivative
trading assets
90.1
291.3
25.3
10.8
54.8
16.0
94.2
FY08 £bn % change
Reverse repos1
GBM Core2
Other
Equities
Loans & advances
T Bills
Debt securities
Asset
£bn
(23%)
(13%)
(10%)
(1%)
(8%)
66%
(21%)
FY09 £bn
69.5
253.9
22.7
10.7
50.3
26.5
74.2
1 Trading book reverse repos2
Excludes Non-Core portfolio of £32.5bn3
Mainly comprises of DPS (deals pending settlement)
GBM -
Non-Derivative trading book assets
77
39
73
34
Only 4% of portfolio (£2.9bn) in Non-Core
Total reverse repos
CustomersBanks
% of total MTM
< 6 months
< 1 year
Total 100
0.0
4.4
3.9
91.7
FY09
12.1
4.4
100
0.8
82.6
FY08
> 1 year
< 3 months
Maturity profile
88.8
32
57
FY08 £bn
(18%)Total 73.3
39
34
FY09 £bn
22%Reverse repos –
Customers
(40%)Reverse repos –
Banks
% changeExposure by counterparty
Total
Other
100.0
3.4
85.9
10.7
FY09 %
Corporates
Government
100.0
3.5
89.3
7.2
FY08 %Collateral quality distribution
£bn
1 Including assets transferred to non-core. Banking and trading book repos.Note:Collateral quality distribution and tenor distribution are calculated based on gross reverse repos
GBM -
Reverse repos1
78
224
11
24
70
UnratedBB+ and
below
BBB- and
below
AAAAAA
£bn
FY09 £bn
Banks & Building Society
Debt Securities total
Mortgage & asset-backed securities
Central & Local Government
Treasury & other bills
Asset
7.2
113
30.6
41.9
28.3
–
Majority of non-related linked to exposures in ABS, Fund derivatives and Corporates
–
Excess liquidity invested in Treasury and Other Bills
Corporate (inc Financials) 5
1 Core debt securities –
banking book & trading book, excludes £13.5bn of unanalysed securitiesGBM debt securities total consists of £32.5bn T Bills included in Cash & T-Bills and £94bn Debt Securities on summary slide 17
GBM -
Debt securities1
791
Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans
and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types.
46%
4%8%
15%
14%
4%2% 1%1%5%
13%
2%
6%
15%
24%
12%
1%4%
14%
9%
AQ1 AQ2 AQ3 AQ4 AQ5 AQ6 AQ7 AQ8 AQ9 AQ10
Core
Non Core
Average rating AQ3.0
Average rating AQ5.4
GBM – Credit grade exposures1
38%
14%9%
6%
3%6%
4%
4%
12%
4%
GBM – Sector exposures1
4%
16%
11%
10%
26%
9%
5%2%
11%
6%
Banks and Building Societies Financial IntermediariesManufacturing Transport and StorageProperty TMTPower, Water & Waste Natural Resources and NuclearPublic Sectors Other
Non Core £87.7bn
Core £224.4bn
Property: 3%
Property: 26%
GBM -
Credit portfolio by credit grade