Baja California

West

Northeast

Northwest

North

Peninsular Southern Baja California

Central

East

1) Generation

3) End Users

2) Transmission

The Electrical Grid

Method Results

Acknowledgements

References

Other input variables that we hope to study in the future are: •  Fuel Consumption, Fuel Price, Technological Progress The results from this study could aid in energy policy formulation which would ideally lead to Mexico successfully and optimally reaching its climate change goals. While this study focuses on the Mexican electrical grid, the methodology developed could also be applied to energy planning more broadly.

Objectives

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris, participating countries set their climate change goals in hopes to prevent a drastic increase in global temperatures. Mexico’s climate change goals are as follows: •  Reduce emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to business as usual

case

•  Reduce emissions by 50% by 2050 with regard to 2000’s emissions To reach these goals, Mexico must adjust its electrical grid. The main components of the Electrical Grid are: •  Generation plants •  Transmission •  End users

This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation under NSF award number 1460461.

This work is supported in part by the NSF-sponsored IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science, and Policy. (Grant Number 1068864).

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Science Foundation.

National Institute of Electricity and Clean Energies (INEEL)

ReachingMexico’sClimateChangeGoals:ASensitivityAnalysisOriannaKane1,RodrigoMercado2,ErinBaker2

1.NortheasternUniversity,2.UniversityofMassachusetts,Amherst

•  Use a detailed model of the electrical grid (PEGyT) to analyze the development of generation portfolios in Mexico over time under climate change goals.

REU project objective: •  Analyze how the cost of transmission infrastructure and discount

rate influences the development of the Mexican electrical grid.

We are using the PEGyT model, which is used for Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) in the Mexican electrical grid. I am conducting a sensitivity analysis on the PEGyT Model by examining how modifying an input variable will affect the results produced. Inputs that were changed for the sensitivity analysis: •  The Price of Transmission Infrastructure •  Discount Rate

Output data that is visualized and analyzed includes: •  Technology Generation Portfolio •  CO2 Emissions •  Energy Produced per Technology and Region •  Location of Power Plants •  Transmission Capacity

•  Transmission infrastructure pricing does not affect the amount of energy produced by each type of generation in 2050. However, the geographical distribution of technologies and transmission capacity in the grid change with adjustment in transmission pricing.

•  Geothermal energy was generated at multiple locations when transmission costs were low. Since geothermal plants are location specific, cheaper transmission infrastructure makes the price of energy transportation more reasonable.

•  Smaller discount rates favored nuclear energy, and larger discount rates, surprisingly, showed an increase in wind energy.

•  Transmission capacity decreased as the cost of transmission infrastructure increased.

Transmission Cost Baseline

Mexico’s Transmission System in 2050 (Baseline)

Coal CCS Gas Geothermal

Wind Hydro Nuclear

[1] J. Veysey, C. Octaviano, K. Calvin, S. H. Martinez, “Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis,” Energy Econ., vol. 56, pp. 587–599, 2014.

[2] A. . Fallis, “Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways,” J. Chem. Inf. Model., vol. 53, no. 9, pp. 1689–1699, 2013.

[3] SEMARNAT, “Programa Especial de Cambio Climático 2014-2018 (PECC),” Plan Nac. Desarro. 2013-2018, no. 1, pp. 1–5, 2014.

[4] heritage.org

Background

Future Work