Systems Thinking

Tools for a new point of view….

Today

• Why systems?• The tools• Tipping Point• Commodity System• Practice

Two Mental Models

Farming Systems are “complex”

Which do you see?

The “rules”

Industrial1. Fossil fuels2. Linear3. Simple

Ecological1. Solar powered2. Cyclic3. Diverse

The Tools

• Mind maps• The pyramid/iceberg• Causal loops (R & B)• System Dynamics• Team Learning

Northland Sheep Dairy, Marathon, NYDanielle Connor

Animals are Soil Builders

Value Energy Self-

Sufficiency

Wholesale Agriculture is

Predatory

Farm as Whole System

Northland Sheep Dairy

Est. 1980Once: Abandoned

Farmland No Buildings

Solar Powered Buildings

Threatened by Food Security

Threatened by Community Prosperity

Sheep Potential Solution

Artisan Quality Cheese

Farmer’s Market

Compost

SUN

DAIRYMEAT

YARN

SKINS CIDER

Grazing Management

Break Academic Paradigm

Holistic Management

Training

ecological social

100% Seasonal

Grass Feed

Fuel

Fertilizer

Feed

Machine

Industrial Collapse

Mind Map

Events

Patternsof Behavior

SystemicStructure

IncreasingLeverage

Mental Models

The Iceberg

Causal Loops

Systems Analysis Tool

Intervention

Intervention

Dynamic Systems Models

Population & the Environment

Animal Interactions

Global Climate Change

Business Success

Tools to better manage

Can we really manage ecosystems?

We are so small, and they seem so complex!

Trying to Stop Erosion where the River is Deep

Loss of Vegetation & Erosion

1982 to 1994

Working Upstream

The Tipping Point

Change Can be Epidemic!– Change can be contagious

– Change can be dramatic

Evolution

1970’s - Hush Puppies

• 1994 – 30,000 sold

• 1995 – 410,000

• 1996 – 1,720,000!

what happened?

Three Rules of the Tipping Point

1. The Law of the Few (people)

2. The Stickiness Factor (message)

3. The Power of Context (time & place)

All three matter!

1. The Law of the FewSome people are connectors like

Paul Revere vs. William Dawes

• Word of mouth is still the most important form of human communication

- “the pet rock”- Beanie Babies- Hello Kitty- Songs

2. The Stickiness Factor• 1960’s Yale tetanus shot study

– Two brochures (high fear and low fear)– 1 month later – 3% got shots-------------------------------------------------------– Added map and info on when the clinic was open– 25% got the shot– No difference between hi fear and low fear

The “right” message is important! It needs to be “sticky” to spread!

3. The Power of Context

Epidemics are sensitive to the conditions and circumstances of the times and places in which they occur

Broken window & graffiti theory1970’s Stanford University “prison”Questioner – ContestantHead of the classroomLiz Cristy

New York City Example

• Reduction in public services• Deterioration of the neighborhood• People moving away.• Less income for local government• Less expenditure by city government,

landlords, and local businesses• More deterioration of the neighborhood

Liz Christy Intervention

Lesson of the Tipping PointThe world does not align with our intuition.

We are powerfully influenced by our surroundings, our immediate context.

With the slightest push in just the right place, the world can be tipped.

The right “sticky” message in the right context can shift mental models - fast!

Examples of social “epidemics”Rosa Parks and the civil rights movementGardening in the 70’sRecycling in the 80”sThe “unraveling” of the Soviet UnionGandhi made salt…. (non-violent resistance)

When thoughts become “common sense”

Small actions

Powerful thoughts

StructuralChange

Okay, so small acts “count”, but is that all I have to do?

Change toward sustainability involves three dimensions….

1. Actions 2. Systems analysis3. Shift in mental models

Events

Patternsof Behavior

SystemicStructure

IncreasingLeverage

Mental Models

The Iceberg

Why does “stuff” get cheaper?

Clothing

Cabbage

Computers

Cell Phones

Corn

Investment in new tech

Pressure to increase

production

Pressure to produce

Investment in new tech

Pressure to produce

Investment in new tech

Where do you intervene? (Actions & Mental Models)

Pressure to produce

Investment in new tech

Where do you intervene? (Actions & Structures)

When thoughts become “common sense”

Small actions

Powerful thoughts

StructuralChange

Will that make a difference?

Will that make a difference?

1. The Law of the Few (people)

2. The Stickiness Factor (message)

3. The Power of Context (time & place)

All three matter!

Pressure to produce

Investment in new tech

Where do you intervene? (Actions & Structures)

Lets examine another example

• Logging• Soil erosion • Sediment in local ponds• Water table dropped• Dig deeper wells• Ponds aren’t cared for• Men moved to cities• Vicious cycles made the situation worse

Where is the intervention?Action & Mental Models

You have the Tools

• Mind maps• The pyramid/iceberg• Causal loops (R & B)• System Dynamics• Team Learning

The Tools

Practice Using the Tools

Systems ThinkingTodayTwo Mental ModelsWhich do you see?The “rules”The ToolsNorthland Sheep Dairy, Marathon, NY �Danielle Connor� The IcebergCausal LoopsSystems Analysis ToolSlide Number 11Population & the EnvironmentAnimal InteractionsGlobal Climate ChangeBusiness SuccessTools to better manageCan we really manage ecosystems?Trying to Stop Erosion where the River is DeepLoss of Vegetation & Erosion 1982 to 1994Working UpstreamThe Tipping PointSlide Number 231970’s - Hush PuppiesThree Rules of the Tipping Point1. The Law of the Few2. The Stickiness FactorSlide Number 28New York City ExampleSlide Number 30Slide Number 31Lesson of the Tipping PointSlide Number 33When thoughts become “common sense”Slide Number 35Change toward sustainability involves three dimensions….��1. Actions �2. Systems analysis�3. Shift in mental models�Slide Number 37Why does “stuff” get cheaper?Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45When thoughts become “common sense”Will that make a difference?Will that make a difference?Slide Number 49Lets examine another exampleSlide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54You have the ToolsThe ToolsPractice Using the Tools