ready to learn professional development seminar 2005

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Ready To Learn Ready To Learn Professional Development Professional Development Seminar 2005 Seminar 2005 Online Online Research & Research & Kids Kids Presented By: Bruce B. Friend Presented By: Bruce B. Friend Online Testing Exchange Online Testing Exchange Media & Entertainment Insights Media & Entertainment Insights February 3, 2005 February 3, 2005

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Ready To Learn Professional Development Seminar 2005. Online Research & Kids. Presented By: Bruce B. Friend Online Testing Exchange Media & Entertainment Insights February 3, 2005. Online Research and Kids. About OTX. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Ready To Learn Professional Development Seminar 2005

Ready To Learn Ready To Learn Professional Professional

Development Seminar Development Seminar 20052005

Ready To Learn Ready To Learn Professional Professional

Development Seminar Development Seminar 20052005

Online Online Research & Research &

KidsKidsPresented By: Bruce B. FriendPresented By: Bruce B. FriendOnline Testing ExchangeOnline Testing ExchangeMedia & Entertainment InsightsMedia & Entertainment InsightsFebruary 3, 2005February 3, 2005

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Online ResearchOnline Research and Kids and Kids

Shortcut to Jake_CLICKME.lnk

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About OTXAbout OTX• Founded in 1999, today is the largest

online-only research company in the U.S.

• Conducts all quantitative research online.

• Combines state-of-the-art internet technologies with traditional consumer research methodologies.

• Mission: To be the consumer research company of the 21st century, providing insight through innovation.

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Online-Based ResearchOnline-Based Research• There’s a paradigm shift occurring in the

methodological data collection approach to quantitative research today.

• The world is coming to online-based research, and especially for kids research.

• And as an industry, we must embrace this change and accelerate the evolution of this new survey technology, just as we did with the telephone 50 years ago!

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Online-Based ResearchOnline-Based Research• Even today, the advantages of the online

research survey process and experience far outweigh the limitations.

• The ability to create “virtual” online survey environments through 3D images, motion and sound is just one advantage.

• The ability to replace archaic “central location” testing for anything that doesn’t involve taste, touch or smell is another.

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In 2005 40% of all U.S. non-syndicated quantitative-based consumer research will be conducted online, and this will increases to 50% by the year 2007!

In 2005 40% of all U.S. non-syndicated quantitative-based consumer research will be conducted online, and this will increases to 50% by the year 2007!

Online Interviewing Online Interviewing TrendsTrends

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The Sample “Issues”The Sample “Issues”1.You can’t reach a nationally representative, and

therefore, project-able sample online (thus, for example, you can’t conduct national political polls online).

2.You can’t accurately forecast actual behavior (i.e., U.S. movie attendance) using online tracking data.

3.Online research “convenience sample” panels are overused and prone to heavy “recruit bias.”

4.There’s no way to effectively validate an online sample and the subsequent results.

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The Sample “Issues”The Sample “Issues”• For “issue #3” OTX has developed a

unique sampling approach to overcome this.

• For “issues #1, #2 and #4,” two case studies that empirically disprove these:

– Results from the OTX/12 Americans 2004 Online National Presidential Poll.

– Results from the OTX U.S. Daily Feature Film Tracking Study and Weekend Box Office Forecasting Model

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The OTX Online SampleThe OTX Online Sample

• OTX has access to over 25 million national online survey/sample respondents

– Through our own, carefully managed online panel community (otxsx.com)

– Partnerships with other online research communities (Greenfield, SSI, GoZing, GMI, etc.)

– And partnerships with major non-research online communities (e.g., NeoPets, Ecrush, BizRate, MiGente, BlackPlanet, AsianAvenue, Bolt, Telemundo, and many others)

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Case Study #1Case Study #1The OTX/12Americans PollThe OTX/12Americans Poll

• 12 Americans is a research polling and segmentation methodology that classifies Americans’ opinions into twelve groups, based on their political and social values and behavior.

• OTX and 12Americans conducted 2 waves of national presidential polling in an attempt to validate the OTX online sample and 12A’s GSS based socio-behavioral segmentation scheme

– Developed GSS-based scoring model to classify OTX internet interviews into the “12 Americans” segments

– Determined validity and utility of using attitudinal/ behavioral segment weighting

– To adjust the internet sample to sample widely perceived as valid (e.g., the GSS), and compare these online results to major telephone-based polls

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The OTX/12Americans PollThe OTX/12Americans Poll• Wave 1 Validation Study:

– Fielded August 23rd – August 25th (just prior to the Republican Convention)

– Sample pre-stratified to reflect adult 18+ Census population composition by:

• Age/sex• Race/ethnicity• Education (2 strata: some HS or less/ HS grad or

more)

– Results classified into 12 Americans Segments and then weighted to reflect 12As pop comp.

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The OTX/12Americans PollThe OTX/12Americans Poll

• What we learned about internet sample:

– Under-represented with respect to:• Both inner-city & rural minorities

• Lower income

• Less educated

• Rural white

• Religious conservatives

– As such, un-weighted results showed Kerry with a marginal lead, but when weighted…

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The OTX/12Americans PollThe OTX/12Americans Poll• Wave 2 Validation Study:

– Fielded October 27th – November 1st * (just prior to the Presidential Election)

– Sample design same as wave #1

* Note: 2 days longer in field compared to Wave #1

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Case Study #2:Case Study #2:OTX Daily Film TrackingOTX Daily Film Tracking

For the film studios OTX tracks/measures:• All opening theatrical wide-release (1,000+

screens) movies 6 weeks up to, and then through, release.

• Sampling 300 13 to 64 national movie-goers per day (1,500 per week), to assess the following:– Awareness (unaided and aided)– Level of familiarity– Level and type of media and personal “buzz”

(positive, neutral or negative)– Interest in see each of the movies in the theater– Intentions on seeing a movie in general this weekend– Choice of movie intend to see (overall & this

weekend)

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OTX Film Tracking: OTX Film Tracking: 2/2/052/2/052-Feb-05

Movies By Release Date Studio

First Unaided

Awareness

Total Unaided

Awareness% Aware(Aided and Unaided)

% Definite Interest

% Top 2 Interest

% Definitely NOT

interested

kOpening This WeekendBoogeymanBoogeyman Screen Gems 7% 22% 70% 38% 58% 13%The Wedding DateThe Wedding Date Gold Circle 1% 5% 48% 40% 64% 8%kk Overall-Opening week norms 2% 10% 62% 31% 55% 13%k $20+ Films-Opening this week norms 3% 11% 67% 34% 57% 12%kOpening Week of 02/11/2005HitchHitch Sony 3% 8% 66% 49% 74% 5%Pooh's Heffalump MoviePooh's Heffalump Movie Buena Vista 0% 2% 43% 17% 34% 28%Uncle NinoUncle Nino Lange 0% 0% 5% 38% 63% 6%kk Overall-Opening next week norms 1% 5% 53% 30% 54% 12%k $20+ Films-Opening next week norms 1% 6% 58% 33% 56% 12%kOpening Week of 02/18/2005Because Of Winn-DixieBecause Of Winn-Dixie Fox 0% 1% 32% 18% 41% 15%ConstantineConstantine Warner 2% 6% 53% 38% 64% 9%Son Of The MaskSon Of The Mask New Line 0% 2% 50% 19% 38% 24%kk Overall-Opening in 2 weeks norms 0% 3% 44% 30% 54% 11%k $20+ Films-Opening in 2 weeks norms 1% 3% 50% 32% 56% 11%kOpening Week of 02/25/2005CursedCursed Dimension 0% 1% 24% 38% 64% 8%Diary Of A Mad Black WomanDiary Of A Mad Black Woman Lions Gate 0% 0% 9% 42% 64% 8%Man Of The HouseMan Of The House Sony 0% 3% 16% 29% 59% 6%kk Overall-Opening in 3 weeks norms 0% 2% 35% 29% 54% 11%k $20+ Films-Opening in 3 weeks norms 0% 2% 40% 31% 56% 11%

Awareness Interest Among Those Aware

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OTX Film Tracking: OTX Film Tracking: 2/2/052/2/052-Feb-05

Movies By Release Date Studio

Definite Interest Intensity

Title Star Conversion

First Choice

AllTop 3

Choice

First Choice of Current

Releases

kOpening This WeekendBoogeymanBoogeyman Screen Gems 8.1 3% 8% 22% 16%The Wedding DateThe Wedding Date Gold Circle 8.2 5% 6% 17% 11%kk Overall-Opening week norms 8.0 4% 5% 15% 10%k $20+ Films-Opening this week norms 8.1 4% 6% 18% 11%k -Opening Week of 02/11/2005 -HitchHitch Sony 8.1 5% 8% 23% -Pooh's Heffalump MoviePooh's Heffalump Movie Buena Vista 7.3 4% 1% 4% -Uncle NinoUncle Nino Lange 6.8 4% 0% 0% -kk Overall-Opening next week norms 7.8 5% 4% 12% -k $20+ Films-Opening next week norms 7.9 4% 5% 14% -kOpening Week of 02/18/2005Because Of Winn-DixieBecause Of Winn-Dixie Fox 6.6 4% 1% 4% -ConstantineConstantine Warner 8.1 5% 11% 20% -Son Of The MaskSon Of The Mask New Line 7.8 3% 1% 4% -kk Overall-Opening in 2 weeks norms 7.7 5% 3% 10% -k $20+ Films-Opening in 2 weeks norms 7.9 5% 4% 12% -kOpening Week of 02/25/2005 -CursedCursed Dimension 7.5 7% 1% 5% -Diary Of A Mad Black WomanDiary Of A Mad Black Woman Lions Gate 7.4 6% 1% 3% -Man Of The HouseMan Of The House Sony 7.0 7% 0% 2% -kk Overall-Opening in 3 weeks norms 7.6 6% 2% 8% -k $20+ Films-Opening in 3 weeks norms 7.8 5% 3% 9% -

Interest Indicators Choice

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OTX Daily Film TrackingOTX Daily Film Tracking• Other variables affecting movie-going behavior:

– Total # of screens the film is released on

– MPAA Rating

– Film genre

– Release date/seasonality

– Historical box office trends

– Reviews, weather, other unexpected “events”*

* which can not be controlled for!

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OTX Daily Film TrackingOTX Daily Film Tracking

• From this ongoing tracking data, OTX has developed a forecasting model that:– Consistently and accurately forecasts opening

weekend national box office results within a +/- 15% margin of error 95% of the time!

– Thus validating that you can consistently reach a nationally representative, projectable qualified sample (such as movie-goers) online.

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Last Weekend’s B.O. Last Weekend’s B.O. ResultsResults

$21M$21.96

<$5M

$2.83

$13M$12.27

$6M $6.35

Hide and Seek Alone In The Dark Million Dollar Baby Sideways

OTX Forecast vs. Actual Opening Weekend Box Office (1/28/05)

Actual

-$0.96M

+/- 0

+ 0.73M

-$0.35M

Actual

Actual

Actual

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This Weekend’s B.O. ResultsThis Weekend’s B.O. Results

Movie Title: OTX Actual

The Boogeyman $20M ?

The Wedding Date $8.5M ?

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Online Research and Kids Online Research and Kids • Online media literacy is very high

among kids, given its use as both an educational and entertainment medium.

• As such, kids generally enjoy taking surveys online, if they are dynamic, well-designed and not too long (under 15 minutes)

• Most kids prefer to take surveys online versus the phone or in-person, and are far more comfortable doing so.

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Online Research w/Kids 6+Online Research w/Kids 6+• OTX regularly conducts the following

types of online research with kids

– Formative: Media & entertainment product concept & development research for:

• Movies, video games, TV shows, magazines, websites, direct-to-video programs, etc.

– Summative: Media/ad effectiveness (awareness/ recall, appeal, persuasion) and A&U studies:

• Creative copy (print, video) testing, purchase intent studies, attitudinal and behavioral tracking studies

– …and much, much more

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Online Research w/Kids 2-5Online Research w/Kids 2-5• OTX is in the process of developing

and testing completely audio/visual based, text free surveys for preschool kids.

• All instructions are given by “Jake” and decisions/responses are captured using basic “point and click” (on objects) navigation.

• Still, online is limited (today) by the lack of observational capabilities, though even this might not be too far off (webcams?)

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Kids Research Kids Research ChallengesChallenges

• Must begin to measure and understand kids by behavioral segments, not just demographics.

• Strive to develop and validate (usability testing) more web-friendly surveys for kids.

• Keep pushing the envelope in terms of how we can evaluate kids attitudes and behavior, using new technology (as they continue to adopt it)

Page 35: Ready To Learn Professional Development Seminar 2005

Ready To Learn Ready To Learn Professional Professional

Development Seminar Development Seminar 20052005

Ready To Learn Ready To Learn Professional Professional

Development Seminar Development Seminar 20052005

Online Online Research & Research &

KidsKidsPresented By: Bruce B. FriendPresented By: Bruce B. FriendOnline Testing ExchangeOnline Testing ExchangeMedia & Entertainment InsightsMedia & Entertainment InsightsFebruary 3, 2005February 3, 2005