real estate valuation, current account, and credit growth patterns before and after the 2008–2009...

7/27/2019 Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 20082009 Crisis

1/30

ECIH Zkrdhfj Qepor Worhos

Yoem Osteto Remuethkf- GurroftEggkuft- efc Grocht JrkwtnQettorfs Iobkro efc Ebtor tno911>9118 Grhshs

Lksnue Ehzof`efefc Xktnhf Lhflered

Fk& 398Lumy 9157

Eshef Covomkp`oft Iefd Hfsthtuto


2/30

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9157 Eshef Covomkpòft Iefd Hfsthtuto
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/30

ECIH Zkrdhfj Qepor 398 Ehzof`ef efc Lhflered

Eistregt

Snhs pepor oxpmkros tno steihmhty kb tno doy gkfchthkfhfj verheimos eggkufthfj bkr roem ostetovemuethkf iobkro efc ebtor tno grhshs kb 911>9118- hf e pefom kb 72 gkuftrhos- bkr tno porhkc kb911?


4/30


Gkftofts

5& Hftrkcugthkf efc Kvorvhow &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 79&

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9&5 Qromh`hfery Wtethsthgs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ?9&9 Qettorfs kb Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Gurroft Eggkuft

Cobhght+Jrkss Ckòsthg Qrkcugt &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 27& Iesomhfo Yosumts &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&55

7&5 Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&557&9 Iroeds hf Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhghts efc Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&577&7 Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght vhsvhs Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5?

3& Wofshthvhty Efemyshs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5:3&5 Yovorso Boociegd &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5:3&9 Esy`òtrhg Eclustòft &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&583&7 Ogkfk`hg Whjfhbhgefgo &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&95

?& Gkfgmuchfj Yoèrds &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&93Yoborofgos &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&9?

Eppofchx E< Uuertormy Cete- 911?


5/30


7

5& HFSYKC_GSHKF EFC KROYRHOZ

Sno jmkiem grhshs kb 911>9118 sperdoc e vhireft coieto kf tno begtkrs gkftrhiuthfj tk tno grhshs&Zoro jmkiem hìemefgos kr oxgosshvo grocht jrkwtn tno doy suspogts; Gkftrhiutkrs tk tnocoieto hfgmuco Ikrhk efc Chsyetet .9155(- gkflogturhfj tnet tno èhf geusem begtkr bkr tno

bhfefghem grhshs wes fkt oxgoss sevhfj iut tno oxgoss omesthghty kb tno hftorfethkfem `kfoteryefc bhfefghem systo`4 efc Kistbomc .9159 gkuftrhos kb tno Krjefhsethkf bkr Ogkfk`hg Gkkporethkf efc Covomkpòft .KOGC( pmus tnoQokpmos Yopuimhg kb Gnhfe .QYG(- `kvoòfts hf nkuso prhgos emkfo oxpmehf nemb kb tnoverhethkf hf treco costghts& Jotos .9151( `kcom snkwoc tnet hfgroesoc coèfc bkr nkushfj èy


6/30


3

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ropmhgethfj tno o`phrhgem ovhcofgo kb tno esskghethkf iotwoof gurroft eggkuft pettorfs efc roemosteto vemuethkfs& Iomhob cyfe`hgs gef to`pkrerhmy comhfd nkuso prhgos brk` bufceòftems- sktnet mkw hftorost retos gef buom e nkuso prhgo ikk`&

Es tnoro hs fk roeskf bkr tno romethvo h`pkrtefgo kb tno gurroft eggkuft efc tno grocht pettorfstk stey steimo kvor thò hf eggkufthfj roem osteto vemuethkf- wo oxpmkro hf tnhs pepor tno cojrootk wnhgn tno pettorfs iobkro tno jmkiem grhshs gkfthfuo tk nkmc ebtor tno grhshs& Wpoghbhgemmy- womkkd et tno bkmmkwhfj quosthkfs

Kfgo wo pmkt tno gkuftryspoghbhg ovkmuthkf kb roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf sorhos- merjochbborofgos eppoer egrkss gkuftrhos hf tno esskghetoc pettorfs ejehfst tno iegdcrkp kb tnojmkiem bhfefghem grhshs& Wnkwf hf Bhjuro 9E- roem osteto vemuethkf verhoc èrdocmy iobkro efcebtor tno jmkiem grhshs ovofts- es snkwf iy tno twk vorthgem mhfos bkr 911:


11/30


8

Bhjuro 9E< Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght+JrkssCk`osthg Qrkcugt

q 0 quertor&

Fkto< Yoem osteto epproghethkf hs e cerdor mhfo kf tno mobt sgemo& Sno twk vorthgem mhfos cofkto 911:


12/30


51

Bhjuro 9I< Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Jrkwtn kb Ck`osthgGrocht+JCQ

q 0 quertor&

Fkto< Yoem osteto epproghethkf hs e cerdor mhfo kf tno mobt sgemo& Sno twk vorthgem mhfos cofkto 911:


13/30


55

7& IEWOMHFO YOW_MSW

7&5 Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs

Brk` kur iesomhfo osthèthkf- roem osteto vemuethkf hs pkshthvomy efc shjfhbhgeftmy esskghetoc whtngurroft eggkuft cobhghts hf iktn porhkcs iobkro efc ebtor tno grhshs kb 911>9118& Yoem ostetovemuethkf hs pkshthvomy esskghetoc whtn ckòsthg grocht jrkwtn tk e mossor cojroo- stethsthgemmyshjfhbhgeft kfmy hf tno porhkc iobkro tno grhshs& Gkmu`f 5 kb Seimo 5 prkvhcos tno èhf rosumts-ushfj 911:


14/30


59

Seimo 5< Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs efc Yoem Osteto Epproghethkf&

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911?(

e

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9 5&89 .1&2?( 5&85e

.1&22(e

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.1&77(e

9 1&7? .1&92( 1&79 .1&9?(

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9 1&5: .1&53( 1&52 .1&53(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&19 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(

9 1&11 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&95 .1&13( 1&95e

.1&13(e

9 1&52 .1&1:(i

1&53 .1&1:(g

7 1&1: .1&12( 1&1: .1&12(

3 1&11 .1&19( 1&11 .1&19(GQH hfbmethkf 5 1&8? .1&?1(

g5&5> .1&?5(

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SOC sproec 5 9&12 .5&:?( 1&88 .5&:5(

RH^ 5 1&1? .1&18( 1&55 .1&51(

Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&1: .1&99( 1&55 .1&99(

Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&12 .1&12( 1&1> .1&12(

gkfsteft 1 1&:: .1&?5( 1&1? .1&?:(

Kisorvethkfs :85 :85ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&1>3 &

GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


15/30


57

Sno iesomhfo rosumts emsk snkw tnet oquhty èrdot epproghethkf efc hfbmethkf ero o`phrhgemmyesskghetoc whtn roem osteto vemuethkf- wnhmo tno romethkfsnhp whtn ktnor verheimos .jrkwtn- jmkiemhftorost reto- skvorohjf rhsd- rosorvo egguùmethkf( hs fkt suppkrtoc hf tno gurroft se`pmo& Snopkshthvo esskghethkf iotwoof roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc oquhty èrdot vemuethkfepproghethkf hs gkfshstoft whtn tno woemtn obbogts brk` roem osteto vemuethkf tk oquhty hfvostòft-es gephtem jehfs hf tno oquhty hfvostòft sphmm kvor tk tno roem osteto sogtkr& Sno esskghethkf

iotwoof roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc hfbmethkf hs fojethvo- es kfo `hjnt oxpogt& Snogkobbhghofts kb ktnor verheimos ero fkt stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft4 bkr skò verheimos- gkobbhghoftosthètos nevo ef ufoxpogtoc shjf .h&o&- jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf- SOC sproec- efcbkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf(&

Hftorosthfjmy- gkobbhghoft osthètos kb mejjoc roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf hfchgetoporshstofgo hf roem osteto vemuethkf up tk twk quertors- gkfshstoft whtn pkpumer gk`òfterhostnet roem osteto èrdots ero crhvof iy efhèm sphrhts efc `kòftu`- whtn tno ègrkogkfk`hgefc rojumetkry ofvhrkfòft pmeyhfj e suppkrthfj rkmo& Sno mejjoc roem osteto gkobbhghofts erooquem tk 1&2 bkr tno bhrst twk quertors efc stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft et tno 5/ movom- sujjosthfj tnet`kro tnef nemb kb roem osteto vemuethkf wes gerrhoc kf brk` kfo quertor tk tno foxt tnrooquertors kf evorejo&

?

7&9 Iroeds hf Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhghts efc Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn

Nkwovor- kur se`pmo bkgusos kf e spoghbhg ophskco iobkro efc ebtor tno

jmkiem grhshs& Nofgo- tno bhfchfjs ck fkt h`pmy tnet oxpogtethkfcrhvof porshstofgo hf roem ostetovemuethkf èy mest kfmy nemb e yoer- iut hfstoec tnet tnhs kisorvoc `kòftu` eppoers tk io tnogeso kvor tno porhkc kb 911?


16/30


53

Seimo 9< Surfhfj Qkhfts kb Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght+JCQ efc Jrkwtn kb CkòsthgGrocht+JCQ

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf .bhrst gkmu`f( efc bhxocobbogt osthèthkf .sogkfc gkmu`f(- ushfj quertormy cetkvor tno porhkc 911?( 9&87 .5&?7(,

GEC+JCQ iobkro iroed 5 1&18 .1&:7( 1&95 .1&28(9 9&55 .1&28( 5&38

e.1&23(

GEC+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&7> .1&22( 1&97 .1&27(9 5&88 .1&2?( 5&?2

e.1&25(

Jrkwtn kb ckòsthg grocht+JCQ iroedihfery.5+1(

5&2: .5&99( 5&3? .5&3?(

CGY+JCQ iobkro iroed 5 1&72 .1&98( 1&91 .1&95(9 1&15 .1&91( 1&11 .1&5?(

CGY+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&58 .1&91( 1&13 .1&5>(9 1&5> .1&5?( 1&5? .1&53(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(

9 1&11 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&95 .1&13( 1&5?

e.1&13(

e

9 1&5? .1&1:(

1&18 .1&1:(7 1&1: .1&12( 1&19 .1&12(3 1&11 .1&19( 1&15 .1&19(

GQH hfbmethkf 5 5&97 .1&?1( 1&31 .1&32(Jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf 5 1&1: .1&51( 1&1> .1&18(SOC sproec 5 1&22 .5&:1( 1&35 .5&2>(RH^ 5 1&15 .1&1>( 1&15 .1&1>(Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&51 .1&97( 1&1? .1&9:(Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&13 .1&12( 1&13 .1&12(gkfsteft 1 1&79 .1&22( 5&31 .1&:7(

g

Kisorvethkfs :85 :85ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo & Y

0 1&>5


Fkto


17/30


5?

Hf ecchthkf- whtn tnoso emtorfethvo turfhfj pkhfts- ushfj tno bhxocobbogt osthèthkf ckos fktgnefjo tno èhf bhfchfj kf tno pkshthvo efc stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft esskghethkf iotwoof roemosteto vemuethkf efc gurroft eggkuft cobhght& Es snkwf hf gkmu`f 9 kb Seimo 9- tno gkobbhghoftosthètos kb gurroft eggkuft cobhght+JCQ roèhf stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft hf tno bhxocobbogtosthèthkf4 tno gkobbhghoft osthètos kb mejjoc roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc oquhtyèrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf emsk roèhf stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft& Burtnor- gurroft eggkuft

cobhght+JCQ oftors tno osthèthkf pkshthvo efc stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft iktn hfchvhcuemmy efc eshftoregthkf tor`s& Sno oxpmefetkry pkwor- es òesuroc iy Y9 hf gkmu`f 9- sujjosts tnet tnoosthèthkf hs eimo tk oxpmehf eikut >1/ kb verhethkf hf tno roem osteto vemuethkf kvor tno porhkc kb911?


18/30


52

Seimo 7< Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght vhsvhs Jrkwtn kb Ckòsthg Grocht kf YoemOsteto Remuethkf

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911? .1&31(

3 1&1> .1&53(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&91 .1&13( 1&97e

.1&13(e

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1&5: .1&1:(i

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3 1&11 .1&19( 1&15 .1&19(

GQH hfbmethkf 5 5&9? .1&38(i

5&91 .1&?1(i

Jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf 5 1&13 .1&51( 1&1> .1&51(SOC sproec 5 1&?> .5&:1( 5&39 .5&2>(

RH^ 5 1&19 .1&1>( 1&19 .1&1>(

Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&12 .1&99( 1&1> .1&99(

Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&12 .1&12( 1&12 .1&12(

gkfsteft 1 5&1? .1&33( 1&87i

.1&33(i

Kisorvethkfs :2? :2?

ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo & &GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


19/30


5:

Iesoc kf stethsthgem pehrwhso gkrromethkf efc pefom gkhftojrethkf tosts- `umthgkmmhfoerhtyiotwoof gurroft eggkuft cobhght efc jrkwtn kb ck`osthg grocht hs ufmhdomy- et moest bkr tno 911?


20/30


5>

`kòftu` efc efhèmsphrhts gneffoms hf tno roem osteto vemuethkf gef gnefjo retnorhfcopofcoftmy brk` tnkso hf oquhty hfvostòft kvor tno grhshs porhkc&

:

Seimo 3< Yovorso Boociegd kb Yoem Osteto Epproghethkf tk Gurroft Eggkuft efc Oquhty@erdot

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911?: .7&9>(

7 1&85 .1&1>( 5&3>e

.7&7>(

3 1&77 .1&17( 1&73e

.5&93(

Jmkiem bhfefghem grhshs iroed ihfery.5+1( 1&5: .1&51( g 3&>: .9&58( i

Yoem osteto epproghethkf iobkro iroed 5 1&15 .1&19( 5&32 .1&2:(i

9 1&1? .1&19(i

1&1: .1&:7(

Yoem osteto epproghethkf ebtor iroed 5 1&13 .1&15( 5&19e

.1&39(i

9 1&15 .1&19( 1&15 .1&?>(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&11 .1&11( 1&?2 .1&1:(e

9 1&11 .1&11( 5&37 .1&57(e

7 1&11 .1&11( 5&93 .1&55(e

3 1&11 .1&11( 1&35 .1&17(e

GQH hfbmethkf 5 1&12 .1&17(i

2&58 .1&8?(e

Jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf 5 1&15 .1&15( g 1&?2 .1&58( e

SOC sproec 5 1&91 .1&55(g

59&23 .7&5?(e

RH^ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&52(

Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&19 .1&15( 1&:9 .1&37(g

Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&15 .1&11(i

1&99 .1&59(g

gkfsteft 1 1&1: .1&17(i

9&71 .1&82(i

Kisorvethkfs :>8 :85

ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&895 1&211GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


21/30


58

3&9 Esy`òtrhg Eclustòft

Ecchthkfem sofshthvhty gnogds snkw tnet bkr tno epproghethkf ophskco kb tno roem osteto vemuethkf-e pkshthvo esskghethkf iotwoof roem osteto epproghethkf efc gurroft eggkuft cobhght hs stethsthgemmyshjfhbhgeft- wnhmo tno pkshthvo esskghethkf iotwoof roem osteto epproghethkf efc jrkwtn kbckòsthg grocht hs stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft iut tk e mossor cojroo& Hf Seimo ?- wo emmkw bkresy`òtrhg eclustòft- esshjfhfj chbboroft gkobbhghofts bkr tno osthèthkf kb roem osteto vemuethkfepproghethkf .gkmu`f 5( efc tno osthèthkf kb roem osteto vemuethkf coproghethkf .gkmu`f 9(4 tnospoghbhgethkf gmksomy rosoìmos tnet hf Seimo 5- iut noro wo sopereto tno wnkmo se`pmo hftk roemosteto epproghethkf se`pmo efc roem osteto coproghethkf se`pmo& Bkr tno roem osteto epproghethkfophskco- osthèthkf rosumts ero merjomy gkfshstoft whtn tno rosumts brk` tno wnkmose`pmoosthèthkf hf gkmu`f 5 kb Seimo 54 ef oxgopthkf hs tnet gkobbhghoft osthètos kb oquhty èrdotvemuethkf epproghethkf efc hfbmethkf ero hfshjfhbhgeft& Bkr tno roem osteto coproghethkf ophskco-tno osthèthkf rosumts ero èrdocmy chbboroft brk` tno wnkmose`pmo osthèthkf- es kfmy mejjocroem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf ero bkufc stethsthgemmyshjfhbhgeft hf tno esskghethkf whtn tno roem osteto vemuethkf& Nofgo- wo bhfc tnet wnof roem ostetoèrdots woro kf tno rhso- tno roem osteto vemuethkf eclusts whtn rospogt tk ègrk verheimoschbboroftmy brk` wnof tno èrdots woro cogmhfhfj& Esy`òtrhg iuiimo cyfe`hgs ero ovhcoft hf

tno roem osteto vemuethkf&


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91

Seimo ?< Epproghethkf vhsvhs Coproghethkf Ophskcos kb Yoem Osteto Remuethkf

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf kf tno ophskco kb roem osteto èrdot epproghethkf hf tno bhrst gkmu`f efc kf tnoophskco kb roem osteto èrdot coproghethkf hf tno sogkfc gkmu`f- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911? .5&77(

GEC+JCQ iobkro iroed 5 1&>2 .1&>>( 1&7? .1&>?(

9 9&>7 .1&81( 1&79e

.1&:8(GEC+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&:? .1&>5( 1&:8 .1&:2(

9 9&:1 .1&>5( 1&9?e

.1&::(

Jrkwtn kb ckòsthg grocht+JCQ iroedihfery.5+1(

5&97 .5&33( 5&9? .5&75(

CGY+JCQ iobkro iroed 5 1&57 .1&31( 1&5? .1&93(9 1&9: .1&92( 1&1> .1&5:(

CGY+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&1> .1&9:( 1&72 .1&99(9 1&?3 .1&95( 1&53 .1&52(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(9 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&1> .1&12( 1&93 .1&13(e

9 1&11 .1&51( 1&95 .1&1:(e

7 1&17 .1&1>( 1&18 .1&12(3 1&19 .1&17( 1&15 .1&19(

GQH hfbmethkf 5 1&55 .1&:3( 5&57 .1&3:(

Jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf 5 1&5: .1&53( 1&1> .1&51(SOC sproec 5 9&>8 .9&>1( 1&>8 .5&>1(RH^ 5 1&13 .1&53( 1&17 .1&18(Wkvorohjf GCW 5 5&29 .5&8>( 1&53 .1&99(Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&15 .1&1:( 1&13 .1&1>(Kisorvethkfs 72: 393ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&38? &


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95

3&7 Ogkfk`hg Whjfhbhgefgo

Iesoc kf se`pmo stefcerc covhethkf efc osthèthkf rosumts- tno ogkfk`hg shjfhbhgefgo kf roemosteto vemuethkf hs crhvof `kstmy iy mejjoc roem osteto epproghethkf- bkmmkwoc iy gurroft eggkuftcobhght- jrkwtn kb ckòsthg grocht- efc oquhty èrdot epproghethkf& Zo roegn tnhs gkfgmushkf iy

eggkufthfj bkr emm kur èhf bhfchfjs efc sofshthvhty gnogds- hfgmuchfj hf perthgumer pkshthvoboociegd kb roem osteto epproghethkf tk oquhty èrdot epproghethkf .Seimo 3( efc esy`òtrhgeclustòft hf roem osteto epproghethkf efc hf coproghethkf ophskcos .Seimo ?(& Ossofthemmy- worovhso tno o`phrhgem spoghbhgethkf kb gkmu`f 5 hf Seimo 5- noroiy vorhbyhfj kur osthèthkf hf Seimo2 iy troethfj roem osteto epproghethkf efc oquhty èrdot epproghethkf iktn es ofckjofkusrojrosskrs& Kur iofgnèrd bhfchfjs ero ropkrtoc hf Seimo 2- bkr tno wnkmo se`pmo hf gkmu`f 5-efc bkr tno ophskco kb roem osteto epproghethkf hf gkmu`f 9& Foxt- wo gemgumeto tno ogkfk`hgshjfhbhgefgo kf roem osteto vemuethkf kb oegn ègrk verheimo iy ùmthpmyhfj kfo stefcerccovhethkf kb oegn verheimo whtn hts gkobbhghoft osthèto kb gkmu`f 5 hf Seimo 2& Es snkwf hfBhjuro 7 bkr tno roem osteto vemuethkf kf ef effuemhzoc ieshs- tno `kst ogkfk`hgemmy shjfhbhgeftverheimo hs mejjoc roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf .51&3/(- tnof gurroft eggkuft cobhght+JCQ.?&1/(- jrkwtn kb ckòsthg grocht+JCQ .7&1/(- efc oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf .5&?/(-

bkr kur se`pmo kb 72 gkuftrhos curhfj 911?9159&


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99

Seimo 2< Iofgnèrd Yosumts

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911?9 .5&12(g

5&87 .5&79(

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9 5&?1 .1&25(

5&8> .1&>9(

GEC+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&7? .1&??( 1&?8 .1&:?(

9 5&2: .1&??( 9&98e

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.1&72(9 1&58 .1&58( 1&99 .1&9?(

CGY+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&59 .1&5?( 1&13 .1&9?(9 1&55 .1&55( 1&39 .1&91(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(9 1&11 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&5? .1&17( 1&1:e

.1&1?(9 1&51 .1&12( 1&15 .1&51(7 1&17 .1&1?( 1&17 .1&1>(3 1&15 .1&19( 1&19 .1&17(

GQH hfbmethkf 5 1&?7 .1&39( 1&93 .1&:5(Jrkwtn kb hfcustrhem prkcugthkf 5 1&12 .1&1>( 1&5? .1&57(SOC sproec 5 5&?9 .5&?2( 1&82 .9&>5(RH^ 5 1&13 .1&1>( 1&1> .1&53(Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&51 .1&95( 5&52 .5&85(Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&1? .1&1?( 1&19 .1&1:(gkfsteft 1 1&8? .1&3:( 5&5> .1&::(Kisorvethkfs :85 72:ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&38? 1&32>


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25/30


97

Bhjuro 7< Ogkfk`hg Whjfhbhgefgo kb @egrk Rerheimos kf Yoem Osteto Remuethkf

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26/30


93

?& GKFGM_CHFJ YO@EYDW

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> Snus- tnoro hs fk roeskf tk oxpogt tnet tno romethvo refdhfj kb tno

h`pkrtefgo kb tno gurroft eggkuft vorsus tno grocht gneffoms hf eggkufthfj bkr roem ostetoepproghethkfs snkumc io steimo kvor thò&

8

Fktwhtnstefchfj tnoso rosumts- tno `kst h`pkrteft begtkr eggkufthfj bkr tno epproghethkf kb roemosteto turfoc kut tk io tno h`pegt kb `kòftu`tno mejjoc quertormy epproghethkfs hf tno pest

yoer& Snhs obbogt hs merjo< e roem osteto epproghethkf kb 5/ hf e jhvof quertor wes esskghetoc whtne prklogtoc roem epproghethkf kb `kro tnef 5/ hf tno foxt tnroo quertors&

Xot- es tnokry sujjosts- iktn gneffoms ero pktoftefc snkumc fkt io hjfkroc&

51

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YOBOYOFGOW

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Qefom gkhftojrethkf .ZostormufcWtethsthg(

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Yoem osteto vemuethkfepproghethkf

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real estate valuation, current account, and credit growth patterns before and after the 2008–2009...

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