real time high-resolution nwp @ mcgill university j. gyakum 1, r. mctaggart- cowan 1, p. sisson 2 1...
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Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University
J. Gyakum1, R. McTaggart-Cowan1, P. Sisson2
1 McGill University2 National Weather Service
Objectives
• Implementation of a real time MC2 system
• Data collection for stat-istical analysis and case studies
• Investigate impacts of high-resolution modelling on QPF and near-surface winds
Outline
• Need for mesoscale modelling• Description of NWP system• Validation case study
(1 May 2002)• Projected completion timeline
High Resolution (3km)• Accurate
topography• Improved wind
fields and fluxes• Model terrain-
induced confluence
Mesoscale Orography
High resolution (6 km)
Degraded resolution (~100 km)
Model Description
• MC2 version 4.9.3• Non-hydrostatic, semi-implicit
time step, semi-Lagrangian advection
• Full physics version 3.72• Three one-way nest domains
Nesting Strategy
36km
12 km3 km
Computational Platform• NEC SX-5 supercomputer
maintained by RPN/CMC• 2x16 PE nodes• 8G memory per PE (128
G/node)• Theoretical peak performance
128 GFlop
Performance Timeline
0000 UTC 0300 UTC 0600 UTC 0900 UTC
CMC Regional Forecast
McGill Real Time Mesoscale Cascade
Domain 1 (36km)
Domain 2 (12km)
Domain 3 (3km)
All runs completed by 0500 Eastern Standard Time
Production Suite
Synoptic Mesoscale
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
dynamic tropopause potential temperature
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Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
isentropic potential vorticity
• dynamic tropopause
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Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
coupling index
dt - e(bl)
• dynamic tropopause
• isentropic potential vorticity
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Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
moisture transport
• dynamic tropopause
• isentropic potential vorticity
• coupling index
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Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
moisture flux divergence
• dynamic tropopause
• isentropic potential vorticity
• coupling index
• moisture transport
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Production Suite
Synoptic
Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics
Non-standard synoptic output available on 36 and 12 km domains (1 & 2)
• dynamic tropopause
• isentropic potential vorticity
• coupling index
• moisture transport
• moisture flux divergence
Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
frontogenesis function and terms
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Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
high-resolution convective and explicit precip-itation
• frontogenesis function
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Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
high resolution vertical motion fields
• frontogenesis function
• high resolution precipitation
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Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
cross-sectional plots of various thermodynamic variables
• frontogenesis function
• high resolution precipitation
• high resolution vertical motion
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Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
cross-sectional plots of frontal circulations
• frontogenesis function
• high resolution precipitation
• high resolution vertical motion
• thermodynamic cross-sections
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Production Suite
Mesoscale
Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales
Mesoscale visualization tools available on 12 and 3 km domains (2 & 3)
• frontogenesis function
• high resolution precipitation
• high resolution vertical motion
• thermodynamic cross-sections
• frontal circulations
Case Study (2 May)
GOES-East Water vapour 0000UTC 2 May
Precipitation Structure
Radar Observations Model Rain Rate
0900 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May)
Domain 2 (12 km)
Precipitation Structure
Radar Observations Model Rain Rate
1200 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May)
Domain 2 (12 km)
Project Timeline
March June September December
2002 2003
model implementation
McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design
web interface construction
real time modelling
completedin progressplanned
Case Study (27 Sept)
GOES-East Water vapour (0000 UTC 27 Sept)
Precipitation
Domain 1 (36km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
Precipitation
Observed total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
Precipitation
Domain 2 (12km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
Precipitation
Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
Precipitation
Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept
500mb Height/Vorticity
325K Potential Vorticity
Dynamic Tropopause
Potential Temperature
McGill 24h forecast RUC analysis 00Z 28
Dynamic Tropopause
Windspeed / Wind Vectors
McGill 24h forecast RUC analysis 00Z 28
Project Timeline
March June September December
2002 2003
model implementation
McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction
visualization design
web interface construction
real time modelling
completedin progressplanned
Summary
• Implementation of real time mesoscale NWP is under way at McGill
• High resolution (3 km) will enhance mesoscale flow and QPF forecasts for the St. Lawrence / NE states region
Data Access
• http://132.206.43.151:5080
• Grib files available to ftp servers upon request to: