real time streamflow forecasting and reservoir operation

Government of Maharashtra Hydrology Project II

Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN

Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins

in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Inception Report

December 2011

DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt. Ltd.


Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River

Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Inception Report

December 2011

DHI (India) Water &

Environment Pvt Ltd

3rd

Floor, NSIC

Bhawan, Okhla

Industrial Estate

New Delhi 11 00 20

India

Tel:+9111 47034500 +91 11 4703 4500

Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501

[email protected] www.dhigroup.com

Client

Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology

Client’s representative

Superintending Engineer

Project


Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in

Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Project No

63800247

Authors

Guna Paudyal

Finn Hansen

Dhananjay Pandit

Date:

10 December 2011

Approved by

Hans G. Enggrob

01 Inception report (based on comments from Client & other

stakeholders)

GNP HGE 10.12.11

Revision Description By Checked Approved Date

Key words

Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting,

Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology,

Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building

Classification

Open

Internal

Proprietary

Distribution No of

copies

Client:

DHI:

PDF file

15

http://www.dhigroup.com/

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Inception Report i

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

BSD Basin Simulation Division

CWC Central Water Commission

DA Data Assimilation

DAS Data Acquisition System

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DSS Decision Support System

FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD)

GIS Geographic Information System

GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency

GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite

GoI Government of India

GoM Government of Maharashtra

GPRS General Packet Radio Service

GSM Global System for Mobile Communications

HD Hydrodynamic

HIS Hydrological Information system

HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II

IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IMD Indian Meteorological Department

KRBA Konkan River Basin Agency

MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute

MKRBA Maharashtra Krishna River Basin Agency

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer

MoWR Ministry of Water Resources

NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee

NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

QA Quality Assurance

QAP Quality Assurance Plan

QC Quality Control

QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD)

ROS Reservoir Operation System

RR Rainfall-Runoff

RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

ii Inception Report

RS Remote Sensing

RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System

RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System

RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting

SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar

SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency

VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency

WALMI Water and Land Management Institute

WB World Bank

WRD Water Resources Department


Inception Report iii

Table of Contents

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................. i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………...VI

1 INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….…..1

1.1 Background .............................................................................................. 1

1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins .......................................................... 2

1.2.1 Krishna River Basin ..................................................................................................... 2

1.2.2 Bhima River Basin ...................................................................................................... 4

1.2.3 Flood Prone Area ......................................................................................................... 4

2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES, OUTPUTS & ACTIVITIES……………6

2.1 Objectives ................................................................................................. 6

2.2 Outputs ..................................................................................................... 6

2.3 Activities / Tasks ...................................................................................... 7

3 PROGRESS OF INCEPTION PHASE ACTIVITIES………………9

3.1 Summary of Progress made during the Inception phase .................... 9

3.2 Description of Progress ........................................................................... 9

3.2.1 Task 1.1 Review current forecasting & reservoir operation ........................................ 9

3.2.2 Task 1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders .............................................. 20

3.2.3 Task 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts and flow forecasting and

reservoir operation tools ...................................................................................................... 25

3.2.4 Task-1.4 Review available data and, the RTDAS network and identify critical gaps

and recommend strategies to fill these ................................................................................ 30

3.2.5 Task-1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple reservoir operation ...... 36

3.2.6 Task 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend improvements for

human resource development, and facilities for effective functioning ............................... 39

4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH .................................................. 40

4.1 Knowledge Base and Management System ........................................ 40

4.1.1 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base ..................................................... 40

4.1.2 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base Management System .................. 41

4.2 Streamflow and Forecasting Models ................................................... 42

4.2.1 Role of Mathematical Models .................................................................................... 42

4.2.2 Flow Forecasting ........................................................................................................ 44

4.2.3 Development of Simulation Models .......................................................................... 48

4.2.4 Boundary Conditions ................................................................................................. 57

4.2.5 Integration with Real-time Data ................................................................................. 57


iv Inception Report

4.3 Reservoir Operation Guidance System ............................................... 60

4.3.1 Implementation of Existing Operation Rules ............................................................ 60

4.3.2 Optimisation of Existing Operation Rules ................................................................. 60

4.3.3 Operational Guidance System ................................................................................... 61

4.4 Communication and Information Management System ................... 61

4.4.1 Communication Strategy and protocols ..................................................................... 62

4.4.2 Web Portal ................................................................................................................. 63

4.4.3 The Alert Module ....................................................................................................... 65

5 CAPACITY BUILDING……………………………………………...66

5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 66

5.2 Water Resources Department (WRD) ................................................ 66

5.2.1 Planning & Hydrology ............................................................................................... 66

5.2.2 The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) ...................................................................... 68

5.2.3 Training Needs assessment ........................................................................................ 72

5.3 Institutional Development Plan ........................................................... 72

5.3.1 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD ...................................................................... 72

5.3.2 Operational Control Room ......................................................................................... 74

5.3.3 Capacity Building and Training Plan during the Project ........................................... 76

5.3.4 On-the-job training .................................................................................................... 76

5.3.5 Training Courses ........................................................................................................ 77

5.3.6 Workshops ................................................................................................................. 80

5.3.7 International technical training cum study visits ....................................................... 81

5.3.8 International Study Tour ............................................................................................ 82

6 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN…………………………...83

6.1 Activity Schedule ................................................................................... 83

6.2 Project Management ............................................................................. 86

6.2.1 Project Organisation .................................................................................................. 86

6.3 Quality Assurance ................................................................................. 90

6.3.1 Quality Management at DHI ...................................................................................... 90

6.3.2 Quality Assurance Plan .............................................................................................. 90

6.4 Requirements from WRD ..................................................................... 91

6.4.1 Data Collection and Processing ................................................................................. 91

6.4.2 RTDAS ...................................................................................................................... 91


Inception Report v

6.4.3 Coordination with other stakeholders ........................................................................ 91

6.4.4 Dissemination of River Flow and Flood Forecasts .................................................... 91

6.4.5 Establish Operational Control Room and RT Data Centre ........................................ 91

6.4.6 Workshops and Training ............................................................................................ 92

6.4.7 Engagement of BSD staff with the Consultant .......................................................... 92

6.5 Project Monitoring ................................................................................ 92

7 REFERENCES………………………………………………………..93

APPENDIX A.1: REVIEW OF PAST FLOODS………………………...95

APPENDIX A.2: TYPICAL FLOOD INFORMATION FORM THE

FLOOD CONTROL CELL, WRD PUNE…………….97

APPENDIX A.3: KOYANA RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM…105

APPENDIX A.4: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RESERVOIR

OPERATION…………………………………………..109

APPENDIX B: INCEPTION WORKSHOP……………………………117

APPENDIX C: LIST OF DAMS…………………………………………123

APPENDIX D: LIST OF MEETINGS AND CONSULTATIONS…….125

APPENDIX E: DATABASE DOCUMENTATION…………………….128


vi Inception Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Project “Consultancy services for the implementation of streamflow forecasting and

reservoir operations for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra” commenced

with the opening of the project office in Pune on the auspicious day of Ganesh Chaturthi

on 17th

August 2011. DHI (India) Water and Environment are the Consultants assigned by

the Water Resources Department of Government of Maharasthra, India. The assignment is

scheduled to be completed in 18 months with an extended technical support period of two

years.

The Inception Report presents the progress made during the first three months planned as

Inception Phase in which all the activities under Task 1 as stipulated in the contract have

been carried out. Based on review and needs assessment, a capacity building program has

been developed. The capacity building is an integrated approach comprising on-the-job

training, formal training, international technical training and study visits and international

study tour.

The Draft Inception Report was submitted on November 11, 2011 for review and

comments by WRD and other stakeholders. Useful suggestions and comments were

received from WRD and from other stakeholders. This final version incorporates the

comments and suggestions.

As part of stakeholder consultation, an Inception Workshop was organised on December 7,

2011 to further consolidate the needs assessment process. The Workshop was well

attended and was very participatory in nature. The Proceedings of the Workshop are

reported separately. However key recommendations are presented in Appendix B, which

are considered in this final version of the Inception Report.

The Report also presents an updated approach and methodology, which includes

knowledge base and knowledge management, the modelling system, the forecasting system

and the reservoir operation guidance. Three types of simulation models are being

developed for the two basins: Rainfall-Runoff Model (NAM), River basin water resources

management model (MIKEBASIN), and hydrodynamic model (MIKE11). The simulation

models are the basic engines of real time streamflow forecasting, flood forecasting and

reservoir operation in the basins.


Inception Report vii

The project implementation plan is prepared in line with the milestones specified in the

TOR and the provisions in the Contract. A few critical paths have been identified, which

are related to the availability of data in time. These are availability of historical data of the

basins, survey of new cross sections in the Krishna and Bhima rivers and their tributaries,

and the completion of the Real Time Data Acquisition System (RTDAS).


Inception Report 1

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background The geographical area of Maharashtra state is 308,000 Km

2. Major river basins in

the state are the Krishna river with its major tributary as Bhima, Godavari, Tapi and

the West flowing rivers of Konkan strip (Figure 1.1). Maharashtra receives rainfall

from both south-west and north-east monsoon. The state has very highly variable

rainfall ranging from 6000 mm in upper catchments to 400 mm in shadow areas of

lower catchments. Majority of rainfall mainly occurs in a four months period

between June to September with the number of rainy days varying between 40 to

100. The state experiences flash floods particularly in Western Ghats including

Krishna and Upper Bhima basins. For instance, Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur

districts in Krishna Basin and Pune and Solapur districts in Bhima basin

experienced severe flood several times during recent decade.

Figure 1-1 River Basins of Maharashtra

The Water Resources Department (WRD) of Government of Maharashtra (GoM) is

entrusted with the surface water resources planning, development and management.

A large number of major, medium and minor water resources development projects

(reservoirs and weirs) have been constructed in Maharashtra. Though, the reservoirs

in Maharashtra are not specifically provided with flood cushion, they have

moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The

reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower, irrigation, domestic and

industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as single entities based on the

historical hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are

often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where

integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplated.

In addition, manual data observation and transmission results in a considerable time

lag, between data observed in field and its communication to decision making level

which sometime leaves little time, for flood forecasts.

The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of India (GoI) has

initiated Hydrology Project Phase II (HP-II), which is a follow-on to the concluded

Hydrology Project-I (HP-I:1995-2003). During HP-I, the Hydrological Information


2 Inception Report

System (HIS) was developed for the entire state of Maharashtra and the data is

monitored manually 1-2 times a day. Under HP-II project, real time decision

support system inflow forecasting in Bhakra Beas system and Decision Support

System (DSS) for water resources planning and management are being developed.

The Upper Bhima basin has been selected as a pilot basin for latter one i.e. DSS

(planning). In addition, Government of Maharashtra has proposed to upgrade the

existing HIS with real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) for Krishna and

Bhima basins. Simultaneously, it is proposed to develop a real time streamflow

forecasting (RTSF) and reservoir operation system (ROS) in Krishna and Bhima

river basins to manage the floods and operate reservoirs optimally for multiple uses.

It is envisaged that the system would facilitate reservoir operators to act on time

and prepare stakeholders for the floods. The forecast of river flow and mapping of

flood zone will help in taking the decisions such as evacuation of the likely

affecting areas well in advance. In addition, the reservoir operation system would

facilitate the optimization of the storages for ensuring flood cushion and improving

agricultural productivity.

1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins The Krishna River Basin, of which Bhīma is a major tributary, covers an area of

258,000 sq.km (nearly 8% of India) in three large states—Karnataka, Maharashtra,

Andhra Pradesh. Maharashtra covers 69,967 km2 of Bhima & Krishna basin area

(Figure 1.2). As Bhima joins Krishna in Karnataka, these two rivers basins are

generally treated as separate basins. This part is one of the fastest, economically

growing regions and hence there is an ever growing competition for water among

different sectors viz. agriculture, industries and domestic users. There are 46

reservoirs in Bhima & Krishna out of which 30 are Major Projects and 16 are

Medium Projects.

1.2.1 Krishna River Basin

The river Krishna which is one of the major rivers of Maharashtra covering an area

of 21,114 km2 in Maharashtra is 282 km long. Krishna originates from

Mahabaleshwar in Satara district and flows through Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur

Districts. It mainly flows from north to south. Three of its main tributaries namely,

Koyna, Warna, Panchaganga flow from west to east and the fourth main tributary

Yerala flows from east to west. There are 19 reservoirs in Krishna basin, out of

which 10 are major projects viz. Dhom, Kanher, Urmodi, Tarali, Koyna, Warna,

Radhanagari, Dudhganga, Tembhu Barrage and Satpewadi Barrage. The 9 medium

projects are Dhom Balkawadi, Mahu, Uttarmand, Morna(Gureghar), Wang, Kadvi,

Kasari, Kumbhi and Dhamni. Figure 1.3 shows locations of reservoirs in the

Krishna Basin.


Inception Report 3

Figure 1-2 The Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra

Figure 1-3 Locations of Reservoirs in the Krishna & Bhima River Basins


4 Inception Report

1.2.2 Bhima River Basin

The Bhima River rises from Bhimashankar near Karjat on the western side of the

Western Ghats known as Sahyadri hill ranges at an altitude of about 945 m above

the sea level. The Bhima River flows in the southeast direction for 745 km covering

the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka. The Bhima River drains an area of 48,853

km2 in Maharashtra. The length of Bhima in Maharashtra is 451 km and it joins

Krishna on the Karnataka – Andhra Pradesh boundary near Kudlu in Raichur

District.

In the course of the journey it meets many small rivers. The major tributaries of this

river around Pune are Kundali, Ghod, Bhama, Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana.

The Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana flow through Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad

city. The major tributaries of Bhima in Solapur are Chandani, Kamini, Moshi, Bori,

Sina, Man, Bhogwati and Nira. The Bhima meets the Nira River in Narsinghpur in

Malshiras taluka in Solapur district. The last 298 km of its course is in Karnataka

where it merges with the Krishna River. The banks of the Bhima River are densely

populated and form a fertile agricultural land. The river also causes floods due to

heavy rainfall it receives during the monsoon.

Bhima basin has 27 reservoirs out of which 20 are major projects and 7 are medium

projects. The major projects are Pimpalgaon Joga, Manikdoh, Yedgaon, Wadaj,

Dimbe, Chaskaman, Bhama Askheda, Pawana, Mulshi, Temghar, Warasgaon,

Panshet, Khadakwasla, Ghod, Ujjani, Sina-Kolegaon, Gunjawani, Bhatghar, Vir

and Nira Deoghar. The medium projects are Chilewadi, Kalmodi, Andhra,

Wadiwale, Kasar Sai, Sina (Nimgaon) and Nazare. Figure 1.3 shows the locations

of reservoirs in the Bhima Basin.

1.2.3 Flood Prone Area

Some areas of the Krishna and Bhima basins suffer from floods. Figure 1.4 shows

reaches of Krishna and Bhima and their tributaries which are flooded. The years

2005 and 2006 observed heavy floods in the basins. Due to heavy rains in the

catchment of Krishna, Warna and, Panchganga rivers created flood havocs in

Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts in July 2005. Sangli city is one of the most

flood prone areas in the Krishna basin. Pandharpur city on Bhima basin is another

flood prone area. Some areas in Pune city gets flooded from the Mutha and Mula

rivers.


Inception Report 5

Figure 1-4 Flood Prone Reaches (in red) in Krishna and Bhima Basins


6 Inception Report

2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES, OUTPUTS & ACTIVITIES

2.1 Objectives The objective of this consultancy is to equip the Water Resources Department of

Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and

forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the

Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra. The system will be used to optimize

releases from reservoirs for multiple uses throughout the year, in addition to

providing a system to better manage floods. This will build upon the existing

hydrological information system (HIS) and eventually on a real time data

acquisition system (RTDAS) telemetry network that is being developed in parallel.

2.2 Outputs The principal outputs in relation to the forecasting and operation guidance system

will be:

(1) A hydrological Knowledge Base comprising:

Historical data from the existing Hydrologic Information System

Historical and real time satellite images

Real time weather forecasts

Real Time Data Acquisition System

Knowledge Management System for ease of access, display and

maintenance of the knowledge base

(2) A Forecasting System for reservoir, river and flood plain levels and flows

efficiently utilising weather forecasts, real time satellite data and the

RTDAS

(3) A Guidance System for integrated optimal reservoir operations for flood

and water resources management year round

(4) A web based interactive Communication System allowing access to the

Knowledge Base, and the Forecasting and Guidance Systems for WRD

offices and stakeholders:

View historical, real time and forecast data and information in a

range of formats – GIS maps, graphs, schematics, reports, etc

Disseminate the forecasts and reservoir operation guidance in a

range of formats tailored to the needs of the users, and over various

media including the web and mobile GPRS


Inception Report 7

(5) A comprehensive Capacity Building programme for WRD comprising

formal training courses, on-the-job training, workshops, study tours and

hotline support

2.3 Activities / Tasks The following main tasks are envisaged to be carried out. Each task has associated

sub-tasks.

Main task Sub-tasks / activities

Task 1

Review Current

Forecasting and

Operational

Capabilities

(1.1)Review current forecasting, reservoir operation,

warning dissemination and emergency response

capabilities in the Krishna and Bhima Basins

(1.2)Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders for

effective water resources and flood management in Krishna

and Bhima Basins

(1.3)Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts, and

flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools

(1.4)Review available hydro-climatological data and data

management systems, the RTDAS network, real time

satellite data, and identify critical gaps and recommend

strategies to fill these

(1.5)Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple

reservoir operation

(1.6)Review institutional capacity of WRD, and

recommend improvements for human resource

development, and facilities for effective functioning

Task 2

Knowledge Base

Development

(2.1) Functional specifications for the WRD Krishna-

Bhima knowledge base

(2.2) Design and develop database management system

(2.3) Develop knowledge base

(2.4) Develop knowledge management system

Task 3

Real-Time

Streamflow / Flood

Forecasting Model

(3.1)Based on the modelling framework set out in Task 1,

the modelling system will be established and calibrated

against historical and current data

(3.2)Through analysis of the model results, critical reaches

will be identified for forecasts, as well as the need for

additional real time monitoring

(3.3)The modelling system will be integrated with weather


8 Inception Report

forecasts, real time satellite data, and the RTDAS

(3.4)Data assimilation will be applied to ensure the

maximum information is extracted from the real time data

to ensure the best possible forecasts

(3.5)Prepare flood mapping, for critical historical events,

and for flood forecasts

Task 4

Reservoir

Operational

Guidance System

(4.1)Extend the simulation models with optimisation for

water resources and flood management

(4.2)Establish the operational guidance system for multiple

multi-purpose reservoir operation

Task 5

Communication and

Information

Management

Systems

(5.1)Develop the Communication Strategy and Protocol

supporting information channels and dissemination

(5.2)Design and prepare specifications for the Operational

Control Room, and support procurement arrangements

(5.3)Develop the Web Portal to provide access and

disseminate information from the Knowledge Base and the

RTSF-ROS

Task 6

Capacity Building

and

(6.1)Engage WRD staff in the development of the

Streamflow and Reservoir Operation Guidance System

(6.2)Preparation of an overall training programme for

WRD staff, comprising training at Indian institutes, and

formal courses given by DHI’s specialists

(6.3)Facilitation of Workshops organised by WRD

(6.4)Organisation of international study tours for senior

managers of WRD

(6.5)Preparation of operational user and reference manuals,

online context dependent help, documented demonstration

cases, training materials

(6.6)Technical support, with further training courses and

hotline support

(6.7)Preparation of a strategy for long term sustainability

and enhancement of the developed system


Inception Report 9

3 PROGRESS OF INCEPTION PHASE ACTIVITIES

3.1 Summary of Progress made during the Inception phase The Tor stipulates the tasks shown in Table 3.1 to be carried out during the three

months Inception Phase (17 August – 16 November). A summary of progress

made against the tasks is also presented below.

Table 3.1 Summary of tasks and progress made during the Inception Phase

Task

No.

Stipulated Tasks Progress

1.1 Review current forecasting, reservoir operation, warning

dissemination and emergency response capabilities in

the Krishna and Bhima Basins

completed

1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders for

effective water resources and flood management in

Krishna and Bhima Basins

completed

1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts, and

flow forecasting and reservoir operation tools

completed

1.4 Review available hydro-climatological data and data

management systems, the RTDAS network, real time

satellite data, and identify critical gaps and recommend

strategies to fill these

completed.

1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple

reservoir operation

Some of the possible

scenarios defined, but

the actual scenarios

and strategies will be

defined during

testing and

implementation of the

system with feedback

from stakeholders.

1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend

improvements for human resource development, and

facilities for effective functioning

completed.

3.2 Description of Progress

3.2.1 Task 1.1 Review current forecasting & reservoir operation

A review of the current forecasting, reservoir operation and warning dissemination

and emergency response has been carried. Most of the review was reported in

Monthly Progress Reoprt-1 (September 2011).


10 Inception Report

The review is presented in five sections. Supplementary details are provided in

Appendix A.1 to A.4.

1. Review of Past Floods, forecasting system and Studies

The Government of Maharashtra Water Resources Department constituted

a Technical Committee on January 4, 2007 to study the 2005 and 2006

floods of Maharashtra and to recommend measures of efficient reservoir

operation and flood forecasting. The report of the technical committee is

an extensive one encompassing review of floods, causes, review of

hydrological data and reservoir operation systems. On the forecasting

systems, the Technical Committee commented that the “gauge-gauge

Correlation” method of flood forecasting was inadequate. The Technical

Committee identified a need of establishing mathematical models for the

river basins in order to provide effective tools for emergency flood

management, integrated reservoir operations, use of basin simulation

models and real time flood forecasting.

On July19, 2011 floods submerged about 30 cars near Bund Garden in

Pune due to sudden releases from the Khadakwasala Dam. This was

reported in INDIATV (20 July 2011).

Floods were also reported in Kolhapur during the same week.


Inception Report 11

Notable floods in the recent past were also observed in 1995 and 1996. It

is reported that about 35 villages in the district of Satara are affected by

floods every year from Koyna river. The extent of flooding could be so

severe that these villages remain cut off from the rest of the area for about

a week.

In Solapur district, major flood events were reported during 16-17,

August 1983. During this event the discharge at Daund was 3.45 lakh

cusecs with a flood level of 508.25m. The corresponding release from

Ujjani dam was 2.45 lakh cusecs. The discharge at Narsingpur was 2.68

lakh cusecs and at Pandharpur the discharge was 2.94 lakh cusecs with a

flood level of 447.60 m. During 14-16 July, 1994, the discharge at Daund

was 2.54 lakh cusecs at a flood level of 507.26m, while the release from

Ujjani dam was 2.17 lakh cusecs. In the same period the discharge at

Narsingpur was 2.38 lakh cusecs and at Pandharpur it was 3.09 lakh

cusecs at a flood level of 448.22 m.

Another major event occurred at Daund during 25-27 August, 1997, with

a discharge of 2.75 lakh cusecs (flood level 507.8m). The release from

Ujjani dam was 2.75 lakh cusecs. In the same period, the discharge at

Narsingpur was 2.70 lakh cusecs at a level of 462.153 m and at

Pandharpur the discharge was 3.093 lakh cusecs at the water level of

449.38 m.

The most recent flood events occurred during 3-5 August 2005 and 8-10

August 2006, in which the discharge at Daund was 2.43 lakh cusecs

(water level 507.5m) & 2.54 lakh cusecs (water level 507.62m),

respectively. The corresponding releases from Ujjani dam were 2.25 and

2.75 lakh cusecs. The discharges at Narsingpur were 2.56 lakh cusecs

(water level 461.49 m) & 3.19 lakh cusecs (water level 462.343 m). At

Pandharpur the discharges were 3.33 lakh cusecs (water level 449.70 m)

& 3.24 lakh cusecs (water level 449.60 m), respectively during the two

events.

These discharge values need to be validated and appropriate corrections

will be applied based on last 5 years data at Pandharpur river GD station.

Figure 3-1 Records of Flood events downstream of Ujjani Dam (Source: Ujjani

Control Room)


12 Inception Report

2. Review of Activities of the Flood Control Cell, WRD Pune

The consultant together with the Executive Engineer, Basin Simulation

Division visited the Flood Control Cell of Water Resources Department in

Sinchan Bhawan to review the present set up of flood monitoring and

forecasting.

For Bhima and Krishna basins, the Krishna Basin Flood Control Cell is

established, which collects the reservoir levels, rainfall and spillway

discharge for each of the reservoirs twice a day (0700 hrs and 1700 hrs) in

normal circumstances and hourly in flood like situation. The data is

received by any available means viz. Cell Phones, Wireless, Land Line

etc. The Flood Control Cell is under the Executive Engineer,

Khadakwasla Irrigation Division. During monsoon (from June to

October) three Section Engineers along with four wireless operators

manage the cell 24X7 in three shifts. During non-monsoon periods, the

wireless operators collect the data. In the control room, the staff from the

Police Department are also deployed round the clock to communicate the

flood situation to respective police commands in the districts.

The collected data is entered into computers and every day at 0800 hrs.

Reports are generated and send to the Chief Engineer, Water Resources

Pune. The Chief Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Pune and the

Superintendenting Engineer, Pune Irrigation Circle. The copy is also sent

by Fax to Mantranlaya (Ministry of Water Resources) in Mumbai Flood

Unit, Minister of Water Resources, Divisional Commissioner, Pune, SE

(CADA), Solapur and Baramati Hostel (Members of Parliament: On

demand). All the information on spillway discharges are given to the

Police Department. The updated data is also published daily on the

website (http://www.punefloodcontrol.com). In case of high releases from

dams, the information is provided to concerned corporations/municipal

authorizes as well as to the Police for evacuation from low lying areas.

The Format of reporting as per the website is given in Appendix A.2.

3. Reservoir Operation

During the monsoon period, reservoir operation usually consists of release

of water for various uses, considering actual demands and storages

available. The release schedules are routinely prepared by the concerned

authorities. Since the day to day routine procedure is known to the

officials it requires less attention in general for release programmers in

fair season. Flood forecasting operations and reservoir operation are

physically carried out during rainy season. It is generally seen that during

the remaining period (normal period), allied and supporting activities

related to reservoir operation/flood forecasting do not get proper attention.

http://www.punefloodcontrol.com/


Inception Report 13

Maharashtra State Water Policy (July 2003) states that (para 8.0 Flood

control and management) an adequate flood cushion shall be provided in

water storage projects wherever feasible to facilitate better flood

management. The flood control space is provided in the reservoir for

storing flood water temporarily in order to reduce peak discharge and to

minimize flooding on downstream locations. The official website of

WRD (www.mahawrd.org) published daily dam storages during 1st June

to 15th

October and weekly in the remaining period.

Khadakwasla, Panshet, Warasgaon & Temghar Reservoirs

A review of the current inflow forecasting and reservoir operation has

been made based on a visit to the Khadakwasla, Panshet and Warasgaon

reservoir system (Figures 3-2 and 3-3).

Figure 3-2 The Khadakwasla reservoir system

Figure 3-3 An Schematic diagram of the Khadakwasla reservoir operation system

http://www.mahawrd.org/


14 Inception Report

The visit to these dams on 15th

Oct,

2011 and discussions with the

Engineers managing these dams

revealed that the inflow forecasting is

mainly done with water balance

method based on the information of

rainfall data in catchment area,

change in reservoir level,

elevation-area-capacity curve,

discharge through spillway and

canal/power outlet.

The reservoir operators use the approved reservoir schedules for each

dam. During rainy season, when the reservoir levels are increasing and

rainfall in the catchment also continues, the in-charge of reservoir decides

when and how much to release the water from reservoir with the help of

guide curves and experience. The information on reservoir releases is sent

to Krishna Flood Control Cell in Pune, which compiles data from all the

reservoir releases and issues the warnings/reports. Based on the travel

time to the flood prone areas in Pune, around 2 hours of lead time is given

before releasing the water from reservoir.

The reservoir operators opined that the operation of the combined

reservoir system would result into an efficient water flood management if

information on catchment rainfall, upstream inflows and downstream

flood impacts are available in real time.

Koyna Reservoir

The operation schedule for Koyna reservoir was reviewed based on earlier

reports and on the Technical Committee Report of July 2007. A site visit

and discussion with Koyna reservoir authorities is planned in the near

future. Presently the field officers are estimating the inflows into Koyna

reservoir by past experience and established rules based on historical

events, like ‘an inch of rain at Mahabaleshwar will result in an inflow of

so many cusecs into the Koyna reservoir after six hours’. The reservoir

operation schedule for Koyna reservoir is described in Appendix A.3.

Figure 3-5 Koyna Reservoir and other projects

Figure 3-4 A Manual data entry

system


Inception Report 15

All the reservoir operation systems in Maharashtra are guided by the Dam

Safety Manual (Appendix A.4).

Ujjani Reservoir

A team of consultants consisting of the Team Leader, Deputy Team

Leader and two international modelling experts visited the Ujjani Dam on

November 20, 2011 to review the reservoir operation system. Detailed

discussions were held with the Engineer in-charge of reservoir operation

and other staff at site. The Ujajani Dam office keeps a good record of

operation and monitors the reservoir water level in real time.

Ujjani Reservoir is one of the most important reservoirs in Bhima basin in

Maharashtra. The reserboir is named as ‘Yeshwant Sagar’ and has the submergence

area of 290 km2. The gross storage capacity of the reservoir is 3320 MCM, out of

which 1517.19 MCM is live storage and 1803.81 MCM is dead storage. Ujjani

project has 2,05,277 ha of command area, out of which, left bank canal irrigates

1,33,332 ha and the right bank irrigates 71,945 ha. The project also has 34,883 ha

of area irrigated under lift irrigation schemes. There are 41 radial gates with

discharge capacity of 15,717 cumecs. The

power generation capacity is 12 MW.

The digital water level recorder indicates

the level and storage in the reservoir. In

addition, the digital water recorders are

installed at canal head indicating the level

and discharge in the canal.


16 Inception Report

The information of all 22 reservoirs

(including Ujjani) in Bhima basin on live

storage, releases from reservoirs through

spillway and power outlets, rainfall, and

cumulative rainfall are collected daily in the

prescribed format by available

communication mechanism like telephone,

cell phones, SMS, wireless, fax etc. In the

flood like situation, this information is

collected on hourly basis. The inflow into

the reservoir is calculated from the releases

from Ghod, Khadakwasla, Chaskaman,

Bhma-Askhed, Andhra, Wadiwale, Pawana,

Mulshi and Visapur. At Ujjani, the decision

to how much and when to release the water

depends on current level in Ujjani,

discharges from u/s and rainfall. An estimate of travel time from upstream to

downstream at the dam site is also used to decide on when to operate the gates. The

releases from Ujjani and Gunjavane, Bhatghar, Nira-Deodhar and Vir are used for

flood warnings at Pandharpur.

In case of emergency, the flood warnings are send to office of Collector, Disaster

management Cell, Police, Municipalities etc. Many flood events in Solapur district,

as described in Section 3.2.1, have been associated with releases from the Ujjani

Dam. The officials responsible for operation use their experience and judgement.

The officials expressed a strong need to have a real time information system and a

reservoir operation guide to deal with emergencies as well as to improve the

management of the water resources system. They also expressed their desire to be

involved in discussions related to development of reservoir operation strategies

during the implementation of the RTSF & ROS project.

4. Flood forecasting by CWC and IMD

The flood forecasting work of entire Krishna basin is being carried out by Central

water Commission (CWC) from its Lower Krishna Division, Hyderabad.

However, Kurundwad in Kolhapur district on river Krishna is the station in

Maharashtra where forecasts are being issued by CWC.

CWC uses the correlation method for flood forecasting. Karad is the upstream

base station on river Krishna for flood forecasting at Kurundwad. The

contribution of tributary Warna is taken at Samdoli station. Gauge and Discharge

correlation diagrams have been developed with due travel time based on historical

data. In addition the Rainfall and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the

intermediate catchment is also used to update the forecast. A forecast of 24 hour

lead time is calculated and issued to user agencies through telephone/wireless or

special messenger.


Inception Report 17

Rainfall warnings and QPF for the Krishna basin is provided by the Flood

Meteorological Office (FMO) of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD),

Hyderabad ([email protected] or [email protected]).

IMD has set up ten Flood Meteorological Offices (FMO) located over flood prone

areas of the country. FMOs provide necessary meteorological support to the

Central Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central Water Commission. These FMOs

function under the technical control of Hydromet Division, IMD, Delhi while

their administrative control rests with the Regional Meteorological Centers

(RMC). During the flood season, FMOs issue daily hydro-meteorological

bulletins to Flood Forecasting Divisions of CWC on operational basis. It contains

the following items:

i. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF) in different ranges which are

1 – 10 mm, 11 – 25mm, 26 – 50mm, 51 – 100mm and > 100mm.

ii. Prevailing synoptic weather situation in the region

iii. Basin wise areal rainfall.

iv. Station wise significant rainfall during past 24 hours( > 50mm).

v. Heavy rainfall warning in the next 48 hours, if any.

5. Warning dissemination and emergency management

The State of Maharashtra has developed a well functioning disaster management

system with a coordinated administrative system from the state level through

divisions, districts and down to village levels (www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in) .

Flood warning dissemination and emergency management systems are part of the

overall disaster preparedness and management system being practiced by the

districts and other authorities.

District Collector, Pune

A review meeting was held on November 8, 2011 with Resident Deputy Collector,

Shri Anil Pawar, who also holds charge of District Disaster Management Officer

for Pune district. The meeting was also attended by Shri Ganesh Sonune, UDRR

Project, UNDP, Pune Municipal Corporation. It was observed that a well

functioning control room is established at the district collector’s office in Pune. The

control rooms monitors all disasters, especially floods during the monsoon season

and disseminates information to all concerned in an efficient way.

Based on the Disaster Management Act of 2005 and Standard Operating Procedures

SOP), each district has prepared a District Disaster Management Plan. Flood prone

areas up to village level are identified based on past disasters and well trained

human resources are mobilised for preparedness as well as for emergency

management. A resource inventory (equipment, human, etc.) is prepared and

updated for each village. For example, out of 14 talukas of Pune district 3 talukas

are identified as flood vulnerable which include 89 villages. Disaster Management

Cells (DMC) at local levels are well prepared to tackle any emergency situation

including floods. In the flood prone villages, the DMC has trained at least ten local

volunteers, and have a computerised inventory of all the necessary equipment,

machinery, boats, Life jackets etc. It has also included the names and contacts of

Government officials, Members of village/Municipality Disaster Management

Committee and Groups, rescue team members like swimmers, health workers,

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/


18 Inception Report

anganwadi workers etc. The Pune District Disaster management System is

illustrated Figure 3.6.

Figure 3-6 Pune District Disaster Management System

Similar disaster management systems are developed for all the districts under

Revenues Division of Pune. The related information is available in

www.idrn.gov.in ; www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in ; www.ndma.gov.in ;

The Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) Booklet is available in Marathi and is in

circulation to all concerned. The village level/ Municipality level Disaster

Management Plan is updated every year. Figure 3.7 shows some of the disaster

management related documents including SOP, Disaster Management Act 2005 and

Disaster Management Plan.

http://www.idrn.gov.in/


http://www.ndma.gov.in/


Inception Report 19

Figure 3-7 Disaster Management related documents

The Disaster Management Plan prepared for Village/Municipality level has two

parts. Part-1 contains information on

1. Information about Village / Municipality

2. Hazardous, Vulnerable and Risk Areas in the Village / Municipality and Map

showing Disaster Prone area

3. Response and Improvement Plan

4. Early Warning and Preparedness Plan

5. Mitigation, Relief and rehabilitation Plan

Part-2 of the Plan includes

1. Telephone numbers of Government Officials (State/District/Taluk/Control Room)

2. List of Members of Disaster Management Committee, Groups, Swimmers etc.

3. Mitigation Measures for Hazardous, Vulnerable and Risk Areas

4. List of Emergency and Important Services

5. List of NGOs, Addresses, Telephone Numbers, Specialization

6. Inventory of available resources and equipment.

It was learnt that some major flood prone rivers are marked with blue lines (for 25 year

flood) and red lines (for 100 year floods) by WRD. The current flood information received

from WRD, however, is inadequate in terms of timing and magnitude of floods related to

geographic areas. The disaster management officers expressed their need to have a more

meaningful flood forecast with early warning message on when and where a certain

level/depth of flood will occur. The lead time of such warning could be between a couple

of hours for urban areas and a few days for rural areas. A longer (3-10 days) warning will

always be useful in flood preparedness, but they realise that accuracy of such warnings is

limited due to fast responding catchments in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. The

officers met expressed their desire to cooperate with WRD in utilising the flood forecasts

and warnings to be prepared by the RTSF&ROS project.

District Collector, Sangli

A meeting-cum-workshop was organised at the Office of the District Collector, Sangli on

November 23, 2011 in which Additional Collector, Shri D.S. Patil and Resident Deputy

Collector, Shri Uttam Patil gave their valuable suggestions from disaster management


20 Inception Report

point of view. Executive Engineer, BSD, Pune presented the overview of RTSF & ROS

project. Officers from various line departments attended the meeting. Resident Deputy

Collector informed that they presently receive hourly update from WRD during flood like

situation at Sangli where Krishna and Warna rivers meet. During the floods similar to

those of 2005 and 2006, the Sangli town always getting affected, with standing water in

many areas. Apart from tackling flood situation, the district administrators also expressed

that the RTSF & ROS project should provide information related to water resources

planning and management in drought prone areas like Atpadi and Kavathe Mahankal

tahsils of the district.

The District Disaster Management Cell is also established here like Pune and functioning

under the Resident District Collector as Disaster Management Officer.

3.2.2 Task 1.2 Identify the needs of WRD and stakeholders

The integrated and multi-sectorial approach to water resources planning,

development and management on sustainable basis is very important due to various

stakeholders involved. In addition to WRD and its various circles and divisions, the

list of stakeholders is as follows.

1. Reservoir Managers / Operators

2. District Administrations / Disaster Management Officials

3. Flood affected people

4. Municipal Corporations (Domestic and Industrial Supply)

5. Farmers / Water User Associations

6. Electricity Boards.

7. Public Works Department (PWD)

8. Agricultural Department

9. Health Department

10. Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran

Reservoir Managers / Operators

All dams in Maharashtra State are planned for the conservation purposes for

utilization of the stored water for irrigation, industrial use, water supply and /or

power generation. Provision of specific flood absorption storage is not considered

in any of the reservoirs up till now. They are not planned as flood control

reservoirs. Dams can moderate the floods through a proper reservoir operation

aided by reliable flood forecasting system. Reservoir operation has to be regulated

in such a way that all the floods impinging upon the reservoir can be safely routed

without involving any risk to the structure itself or any damage to the property

downstream. Both these requirements will have to be given due weightage in

reservoir operation. The RTSF & ROS, hence will become quite useful for the

Reservoir Authorities.

During the visit to the Khadakwasla reservoir system the officials responsible for

operating were interviewed to assess their needs. Although the reservoir operation

rules and procedures are well documented, the operators have expressed difficulty

in taking decisions at times high inflows generated due to sudden and heavy rainfall


Inception Report 21

in the catchment. They expressed that operation of the reservoirs would be much

more effective if an inflow forecast is available in time. It was noted that, in case of

the Khadakwasla reservoir the travel time of upstream flood is only about two

hours. They also expressed that the reservoir operation should also consider

downstream flood situation when large releases have to be made in short time. A

reliable inflow forecast would also be useful in effectively using the emergency

spillways during very high floods.

Flood Control Cell

For Bhima and Krishna basins, the Krishna Basin Flood Control Cell is established,

which collects the reservoir levels, rainfall, spillway discharge for each of the

reservoirs twice a day (0700 Hrs and 1700 Hrs) in normal circumstances and hourly

in flood like situation. The data is received by any available means viz. Cell

Phones, Wireless, Land Line etc. Flood control cell is under the Executive

Engineer, Khadakwasala Irrigation Division, Pune and during monsoon (from June

to October) is operational 24X7 in three shifts. Everyday, at 0800 Hrs Report is

generated and send to The Chief Engineer, Water Resources Pune; The Chief

Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Pune; Divisional Commissioner, Pune and the

District Administration. The Disaster Management Cell under District Collector

with the help of other departments is prepared for emergency response. But as on

today, there is time delay in information dissemination which is mainly manual.

Once the RTSF & ROS is operational, the information dissemination will be real

time and District Administration will be prepared to tackle the situation with a

longer lead time.

Disaster Management Offices

Stakeholders in this category include all district administration offices, which have

a special disaster management cell headed by district disaster management officer.

All talukas and villages have also established such cells. Every flood prone village

has a number of trained disaster preparedness persons.

Flood Affected People

The flood affected people are the most important stakeholders of any flood

forecasting system. For a successful flood disaster preparedness, the people have to

receive and understand flood warning messages in time and in clearly

understandable forms. An extensive field visit was made around the Pune city to

identify areas and people affected from floods and to assess how a flood forecasting

system will help in disaster preparedness. Visits to the Pune Municipal Corporation

(PMC) Building area (Figure 3.8) revealed that the Mutha river floods its bank

submerging parked vehicles. Therefore a short (1 -2 hours) flood warning would

save vehicles from flooding.


22 Inception Report

Figure 3-8 Flood Prone area near PMC Building

Another area prone to floods is around the Bund Garden, where rivers Mula and

Mutha meet (Figure 3-9). The gauging station would be a suitable flood forecast

location. Discussion with some city dwellers revealed that they would be able to

save movable property if a flood warning can be received about two hours in

advance. This seems to be feasible as the travel time of flood wave from

Khadakwasla reservoir to Bund Garden is about 2 hours.


Inception Report 23

Figure 3-9 Flood Prone Area near Bund Garden

As mentioned in Section 3.2.1 (page 19-20), similar flood affected conditions were

reported by district administrators and other stakeholders in Sangli.

Municipal Corporations (Domestic and Industrial Supply)

The reservoirs in the Bhima and Krishna Basin provide water to the various users

throughout the year, mainly within the agricultural, domestic, and industrial sector.

Restrictions in the water allocation may be required from time to time depending on

availability and user priority. While the water storage is known, the inflow to the

reservoirs depends on the weather and climatic conditions in the coming

days/weeks/months. The Municipal corporations at Pune, PCMC, Kolhapur, Sangli,

Satara and other urban and rural areas are dependent on the supply from the

reservoirs. Hence the less storage in the reservoirs at the end of monsoon season

means less availability of water to these corporations.

Along with District Administration, corporations and municipalities also have their

disaster management cells, and requires timely and accurate information, which can

be generated and disseminated from RTSF &ROS.

Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran

The Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (earlier known as Maharashtra Water Supply

and Sewerage Board) was constituted for rapid development and proper regulation

of Water Supply and Sewerage service in the State of Maharashtra. As most of the

water supply schemes will be dependent on supply from reservoirs or rivers, the

information on water availability in the reservoirs as well as flows in the rivers will

be very useful for water supply planning. In case of flood like situations, the timely


24 Inception Report

information from RTSF & ROS can be very useful in using the alternate sources of

water adhering to safety norms.

Farmers / Water User Associations

To overcome the cumbersome procedure to get water, unreliability of water supply,

inequity in water distribution, limitation on area under sugarcane, frequent conflicts

and water logging problems, the Water User Associations (WUAs) have been

functional in many irrigation areas in command areas. The WUA signs an

agreement with the irrigation department to receive water on volumetric basis. They

are expected to maintain and repair the minor and also was responsible for water

distribution. As they are one of the main stakeholders to receive the water from

reservoirs, the information on reservoir operation schedule as well as availability of

water in the reservoirs can help them make better crop planning.

Agricultural Department

Agricultural Department considers farmer as the focal point and the whole

department is organized in such a fashion that a single mechanism is working to

facilitate the farmer for adoption of advanced technology and sustainable use of

available resources. Thus the department advises farmers and water user

associations on crop practices and irrigation methods, in normal circumstances as

well as during drought and flooding. The information generated from the RTSF &

ROS will also equip the department with information required to deal with

abnormal conditions.

Public Works Department (PWD)

PWD takes care of development and maintenance of road network in the state as

well as various construction activities for public use. The road network includes

bridges and culverts and therefore, it is very essential for the PWD to have the latest

status of river levels so that the safe transit of people is managed. Based on the

information in advance, the traffic can also be diverted to safer routes.

Electricity Boards

The real time forecasts for reservoir releases also mean the running the hydropower

plants, whenever possible with its optimum capacities. The timely information in

this aspect can also help the electricity boards to manage additional power supply in

their grid or even trade additional power.

Health Department

Health department is a very important department in disaster management. In the

eventuality of floods, the department has to take care of different measures

including short term and long term medical services. The prior information on flood

thus will help the department in assessing the gravity of the situation and get the

requisite resources at right time and at right place.

Regular interaction with the officials of the Basin Simulation Division has been

made to ascertain their needs. The tasks and activities planned to be carried out in

the project are in line with their needs.


Inception Report 25

Further consultation with stakeholders was carried out during the Inception

Workshop, which was recognised as a forum for all stakeholders to participate

interactively with each other as well as with the Consultants. The discussion and

recommendations provided further insight into to assess stakeholders’ needs

(Appendix B).

3.2.3 Task 1.3 Identify and assess sources of weather forecasts and flow

forecasting and reservoir operation tools

Detailed description pertaining to this task is presented in Monthly Progress Report

-2 (October 2011). Also Chapter for (4) of this Inception Report presents in detail

the various tools (models) to be developed and applied in this project.

Sources of Weather Forecasts

Weather forecast is the key requirement for inflow forecast as well as for flood

forecast. Out of the many weather parameters, only rainfall forecasts over the

Krishna and Bhima river basins is sufficient for the purpose of the present

assignment. The potential sources of rainfall forecast are:

IMD Short Term Forecasts: IMD short term forecasts are prepared from synoptic

maps, and made at district level up to five days ahead (Figure 3-10). The forecasts

and a range of background information are available on the web site

(http://www.imd.gov.in). A range of ground based and remotely sensed sources is

used, including mathematical models. Reliability of the forecasts will be checked

before using the forecasts.

Figure 3-10 IMD's 5-day District Wise Forecast

IMD’s Flood Meteorological Office (FMO) in Hyderabad may also provide

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the Krishna and Bhima basins on

demand by Water Resources Department of Maharashtra. FMOs provide necessary

meteorological support to the Central Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central water

Commission (CWC). These FMOs function under the technical control of

Hydromet Division, IMD, Delhi while their administrative control rests with RMCs

(Regional Meteorological Centre). During the Flood season, FMOs issue daily

Hydro-meteorological bulletins to Flood Forecasting Divisions of CWC on

operational basis. It contains the following items:-

i. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(QPF) in different range which are

1 – 10 mm, 11 – 25mm, 26 – 50mm, 51 – 100mm and > 100mm.

http://www.imd.gov.in)/


26 Inception Report

ii. Prevailing synoptic weather situation in the region.

iii. Basin wise areal rainfall.

iv. Station wise significant rainfall during past 24 hours( > 50mm).

v. Heavy rainfall warning in the next 48 hours, if any.

During flood alert period, FMOs work round the clock and modifies QPF if

required. The FMO, Hyderabad is assigned with the estimation of Meteorological

information for the Krishna basin. IMD provides QPF for each ¼ th of a grid of

the catchment. QPF for Bhima and Krishna catchments in Maharashtra, defined

as sub catchments Upper Bhima (K5) and Upper Krishna (K1) as grid point

rainfall up to 72hrs in advance (Figure 3-11). The proposed Doppler Radars at

Ratangiri and Aurangabad in near future will enhance the resolution and

accordingly data input provision will be made in the system.

The contact office is:

IMD, Flood Meterology Office,

RS/RW Building, Airport Colony,

Hyderabad- 500016(Andhra Pradesh)

Land Line no. 040-27904909, Fax no. 040-27908506,

e-mail- [email protected] or [email protected]

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting: The National Centre

for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/)

is the premier institution in India to provide weather forecasts through deterministic

methods. A mesoscale model (MM5 developed by Penn State University and the

Figure 3-11 IMD Catchment areas for Krishna & Bhima

River basins



http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/


Inception Report 27

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA) is executed in real time for

forecasting mesoscale systems, e.g. western disturbances, severe thunderstorms,

tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall episodes. The model is run on triple nested

domains at 90, 30 and 10km resolutions using initial conditions from a Global

Model (Figure 3-12). MM5 coverage is only available at the regional 30km scale

(11). Although this will have limited use in quantitative rainfall forecast, it will

provide a basis for judgment of future events over the catchments. Quantitative

rainfall forecasting can considerably increase the flood warning time, though the

accuracy declines rapidly with lead time. The MM5 forecasts, while too coarse to

be of real use for real time inflow forecasts, can nonetheless be assimilated for the

operators to gain experience with the system. The technology for quantitative

precipitation forecasting is developing rapidly, and new versions with greater

accuracy can be incorporated as and when they become available. The project will

consult NCMRWF in obtaining further information and in utilising their expert

services.

Figure 3-12 Domains of MM5 Meteorological Models

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

Quantitative precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) modelling system may be used for areas where

rainfall data are not available or where the number of rainfall stations is inadequate.

ECMWF is one of the leading global modelling centres, producing high quality

analyses and forecasts at various time scales.

ECMWF produces weather and climate forecasts useful for medium range (1-10

day) and seasonal/long range rainfall prediction. The predictions are, however, of

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/


28 Inception Report

probabilistic nature as a large sets of ensemble values are produced and analysed.

The forecast system incorporates probabilistic meteorological and climate forecasts

and satellite data. The ECMWF weather variables are surface fields of wind,

humidity, and precipitation. The weather forecasts are provided as 51 ensemble

members for each variable and for each forecast lead-time. The model resolution is

at approximately 50 x 50 km grid from 0 to 10 days, with the forecasts horizon also

extending to 15 days. All forecast fields are interpolated to the same 1/2x

1/2grid. The shorter-term hydrological forecasts uses the a 51-member ECMWF

Ensemble Prediction System initialized twice each day. For the seasonal forecasts

the 1-6 month predictions of the 41-member ECMWF Ensemble System coupled

ocean-atmosphere climate model. The model is initialized each month and run for

seven months. Both models provide the distributions of precipitation that are used

to force the hydrological models.

The ECMWF precipitation forecasts require statistical adjustment. This is

accomplished using NASA and NOAA satellite and rain gauge estimates of rainfall

data and a quantile-to-quantile (q-to-q) bias correction at each grid point in the

basins. The q-to-q statistical corrections minimize systematic error in the forecasts

of model precipitation; random error in the precipitation forecast is less important

because of the large ensemble size used and the integrating effect of the large-

catchment basin on the stream flow. To generate statistically accurate forecasts, the

many uncertainties present in the analysis process must be accounted for in some

manner. After these corrections have been applied, the probabilistic forecasts are

produced.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

The tropical rainfall measuring mission of the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA) produces merged 3-hourly rainfall rates incorporating

space borne radar, microwave data and infrared imagery. The data are then

processed at the United States Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation

and Science centre to convert them to daily accumulations and for converting to

GIS-ready images. The NASA-TRMM product (version 3B42) covers the tropics

between 50°N and 50 °S, with grid cells of spatial resolution 0.25° by 0.25°. The

NASA TRMM daily rainfall products are available from 1998 to the present. The

processed rainfall data are made available within 12 h after the remote sensing data

collection. The NASA TRMM 3B42 products are reported to be superior to other

satellite data in regions with limited in situ gauges. The TRMM 3B42 satellite

estimate is a merged product comprising calibrated IR rainfall and microwave-

rainfall. These satellite estimates are again calibrated by precipitation radar of

TRMM and gauges over land. The final product of TRMM 3B42 is a gridded data

available 3-hourly for extended tropical regions of the globe. Even though TRMM

is a polar-orbiting satellite, the merging of IR and microwave-rain from many other

satellites compensate for the deficiency to produce rainfall. Although the TRMM

data will be useful in data assimilation and model applications in hind cast, their

use in real time flow forecasting is limited.

Flow Forecasting Tools


Inception Report 29

A detailed review and requirements of the tools is presented in Chapter 4.

Flow forecasting will be a based on a coupled rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic

model being developed based on DHI’s MIKE 11 modelling package. The Rainfall-

Runoff component is based on the NAM module while calculation and forecasting

of flood water and reservoir levels are being managed by MIKE 11’s hydrodynamic

module.

Rainfall-Runoff modelling

As a component of the “DSS-Planning Project” a number of NAM models have

been established in the Upper Bhima catchment.

A similar schematisation and calibration approach as applied in that project is

initially being developed in the Krishna and Bhima RTSF & ROS. After dividing

the river basins into a number of catchments and sub-catchments these sub-models

are calibrated applying historical rainfall and discharge observations. In delineating

the catchments following factors are considered: topography, rainfall variation,

sub-basin outlets, watershed atlas produced by Soil & Land Use Survey of India

(www.cgwb.gov.in) and the Maharashtra Water & Irrigation Commission Report

(1999). Further details are provided in Chapter 4.

After calibration the NAM model shall be configured to a full utilisation of all

available real time data including ROS data and weather forecasts to simulate and

update the catchment runoff.

River Basin Simulation Modelling

The MIKEBASIN river basin water resources modelling system is being developed

for water assessment and water allocation. Details are provided in Chapter 4.

Hydrodynamic modelling

The development of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model has also been initiated.

Based on available river and reservoir shape files and satellite images the river

network is being digitized. River cross-sections, reservoir operation rules and

updated Stage-Area-Volume relations, catchment drainage pattern and data

assimilation for real-time updating will subsequently be developed. Following the

set up and calibration the short term flow forecasting model will be imported into

the “Flood Watch Online” DSS tool. Flood Watch Online is a DSS platform, which

is used to assist in the daily forecasting procedure. Flood Watch Online runs in

automated or in manual controlled mode. After importing real-time data output

facilities will be developed and customised to meet the need of WRD.

Reservoir Operation Tools

The requirement for reservoir operation is a comprehensive description of multi-

purpose multiple reservoir management. The Reservoirs may be on parallel and

sequential rivers, purposes may be domestic and industrial water supply, irrigation,

hydropower or flood control. A list of major and medium dams in the Krishna and

Bhima river basins with their purposes are given in Appendix C. Existing operation

rules will be incorporated into the MIKE 11 model in parallel with DSS tools

allowing the responsible officer to base his forecast on these or on user defined

policies, on predicted inflows combined with multiple objective functions and

constraints.

Outputs and dissemination

http://www.cgwb.gov.in)/


30 Inception Report

The scope of the Krishna-Bhima basin management system is to support reservoir

operation through rapid access to data and guidance in the application of operation

rules. The outputs of the RTSF-ROS will be modelling results analysing a number

of possible future scenarios that may be the consequence of observed and predicted

climatic input and options for system operations. This will provide a readily

comprehensible decision background for efficient reservoir management.

The information displayed will be real time observations and forecasted river and

reservoir stages and will include:

GIS maps showing weather forecasts and rainfall intensity maps

Time series (tables and/or graphs) of river flows, reservoir, river and flood

plain levels, irrigation and water supply and hydropower generated

The primary output will be the most important data required for daily operations,

e.g. the latest measurement of reservoir levels and discharges at selected locations.

Additional information displayed can relate to a particular sub-basin, data

category, and other groupings.

3.2.4 Task-1.4 Review available data and, the RTDAS network and

identify critical gaps and recommend strategies to fill these

A detailed review and analysis made on the various components of the data

network is presented in Monthly progress Report-2 (October 2011). A detailed

documentation on data availability and requirement is presented in Appendix D.

Hydro-climatological data Network

Figure 3-14 shows the Krishna and Bhima river basin map with existing hydro-

climatological stations and proposed real time stations under the RTDAS project.

Rainfall

Rainfall is the only source of water in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. The

quality of inflow and flow forecasts depends on the density and timeliness of

rainfall data. Hence measurement and collection of rainfall data from stations

representative of all catchments is a prerequisite to any analysis and forecasting.

The total number of rainfall stations reporting in real time is shown in Table 3.1.

This seems to be adequate with a density of one rainfall station covering about 333

km2. Figure 3-13 shows only rainfall stations overlaid on the proposed rainfall-

runoff model (NAM) catchments. The total number of NAM Catchments in the two

basins as delineated presently is 93. The number of proposed real time stations

indicates that each catchment will have one to four rainfall stations depending on

the size. Although, there is no limit to how many rainfall stations can provide

adequate data in hilly catchments, the proposed coverage seems to be adequate

from the rainfall-runoff modelling point of view.


Inception Report 31

Figure 3-14 Hydro-Met Network in

Krishna and Bhima River Basins

Table 3.1 Summary of rainfall data network (to be upgraded to real time reporting

stations).

River Basin Area

(km2)

Category I

(nos.)

Category II

(Existing and

new) nos.

Category III

(FCS)

Total no.

of rainfall

stations

Krishna 21,114 9 67

(existing 52,

new 15)

16 (7 existing, 9

new)

82

Bhima 48,853 20 82 (existing 39,

new 43)

26 (10 existing, 16

new)

128

Total 69,967 29 149 42 210

Figure 3-13 Rainfall stations with

basin catchment delineation

Figure 3-15 proposed real time

Water level Stations


32 Inception Report

During the review and analysis of adequacy of rainfall network, comparison was

also made with WMO and Indian standards. There are a variety of standard

recommendations on the density of rain gauges. According to Raghunath (2006),

the recommended density is given below:

Area Rain gauge density (area

per rain gauge)

Plains 520 km2

Elevated regions 260-390 km2

Hilly regions with very

heavy rain

130 km2

Raghunath (2006) also states that in India an average density of 500 km2 is

acceptable. One governing factor is also the cost of establishing and maintaining

the rain gauges.

WMO recommendations on the density of rain gauges are given below: (WMO,

1996)

Regions Ideal density (area per

rain gauge)

Acceptable density (area

per rain gauge)

Flat 600-900 km2 900-3,000 km

2

Mountainous 100-250 km2 250-1,000 km

2

The density of proposed RT rain gauges in the Krishna-Bhima basins is given

below:

Basin Area (km2

) Number of Rain

gauges

Density (area per

rain gauge)

Krishna 21,114 82 257 km2

Bhima 48,853 128 381 km2

Total 69,967 210 333 km2

The average density of 333 km2

per rain gauge appears to be adequate. Separating

the hilly and flat catchments, the average density is:

Hilly Area average density: 100 km2

per rain gauge

Flat Area average density: 716 km2

per rain gauge.

It is noted that the flat areas in the lower part of Bhima basin are dry with low

rainfall. Hence these catchments have a rain gauge density 716 km2

per rain gauge

as against the 100 km2

per rain gauge in hilly areas. In summary, it can be

concluded that the proposed network is adequate.


Inception Report 33

River water level & discharge stations

Automated River Water Level (stage) and River Discharge stations fall under

Category IV of the proposed RTDAS project. Figure 3-15 shows the proposed real

time river water level and discharge stations. The new stations or existing stations

proposed to be upgraded, will measure river stage and report in real time to the data

centre at Pune. A total of 14 river water level stations (with 3 new) will report in

real time in the Krishna basin. In the Bhima basin 20 water level stations (with 6

new) will report in real time.

It is found that the proposed river water level network for real time reporting is

adequate for the modelling purpose including flood forecast. It is suggested to

include two downstream river gauging stations (namely at Bubnal or Kurundwad in

Krishna and Develkavthe in Bhima. These two stations will serve as the

downstream boundaries for the hydrodynamic models, and therefore, it is very

useful to obtain real time data from them.

Reservoir Water Levels:

Automated Reservoir Water Level and Outflow Discharge Stations fall under

Category V. This category data collection stations that will measure reservoir water

elevation and transmit this data to data centre at Pune. A total of 46 automatic

reservoir water level stations (19 in Krishna and 27 in Bhima basin) is proposed to

be installed under the RTDAS project (Figure 3-16).

Reservoir Release data (from gate opening)

Under category VI, automated measurements of gate opening (spillway, irrigation

and power outlet) will be established to provide reservoir release data in real time

on experimental basis. The measured gate

opening will be used along with water

elevation to determine accurate discharge

past the gates. The reservoirs namely Koyna

and Radhanagari will be provided with

spillway gate sensors and the reservoirs

namely Ujjani, Dhom and Kanher will be

provided with irrigation and/or power outlet

sensors. Khadakwasla, Vir and Warna

reservoirs will be provided with both spillway

gate sensors and outlet sensors. A total of 59

gate openings (37 spillway gates, 19

irrigation outlets gates and 3 power outlet

gates) is proposed to be established for real

time transmission on experimental basis.

Presently, the data of spillway gate, irrigation

and / or power outlet operations is generally

available in the form of telephone, mobile,

wireless or radio messages from dam

operations staff. The reservoir data collection station/network will support

manually entered gate operation information and transmit this data to data centre at

Figure 3-16 Proposed real time

Reservoir Water level Stations


34 Inception Report

Pune. In some situations, the outflows are also measured directly in off-take canals

downstream of the dam.

River Cross Sections

River Cross sections including flood plain levels are the key topographical

information required for hydraulic modelling of a river system on which the flood

forecasting system will be built. Also the reservoir operation system will be based

on the hydraulic model (MIKE11) of the whole River and reservoir system. Hence

an updated river-floodplain cross section is required for all the rivers under the

model domain. A total of 101 river cross section data have been made available by

WRD, out of which 17 cross sections are from CWC, 41 from G-D stations and 43

are from WRD’s river survey of lower reaches of Krishna river. WRD is planning

to carry out a river survey programme to collect about 2,000 river cross sections in

the river reaches shown in Figure 3-17. WRD has been advised to use same

reference Bench mark and to extend the river cross section surveys to flood plains

so that the levels can be used for flood mapping in the absence of adequate topo

maps. If the proposed survey data will be available (on time), the coverage of cross

section is adequate for the purpose of modelling and flood forecasting.

Figure 3-17 River reaches showing the proposed cross section survey

Satellite Images

Taking into account the large area coverage of the river basins, conventional

methods to collect this information proves to be costly, time-consuming &


Inception Report 35

cumbersome. Hence remote sensing becomes to be an effective tool in river basins

where timely information of the dynamic changes has to be taken into

consideration. This technique provides us synoptic, repetitive, multi-spectral

coverage of large areas and data is quantifiable. Indian Remote Sensing Satellite

(IRS) data from LISS-II, LISS-III, LISS-IV, PAN, AWiFS & WiFS sensors are

extensively used for generating spatial databases. Satellite data will be very useful

in identifying irrigation areas including crop coverage, flood affected areas and

other land use. For this project it is recommended to use IRS Resourcesat LISS-III

and AWiFS data sets. These data sets can be procured from NRSC Data Centre,

National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. www.nrsc.gov.in. Specific

requirements will be worked out as the modelling work progresses.

Figure 3-18 Satellite Map of Krishna-Bhima Basin (RESOURCESAT IRS-P6

AWiFS data)

Topographic Maps

The Survey of India (SOI) 1:50,000

scale maps coverage is shown in Figure

3-19 and also in table. These topo maps

have limited use as their vertical

accuracy not be useful for flood

mapping. It is also expected that

irrigation command area maps may

provide contour of acceptable accuracy.

http://www.nrsc.gov.in/


36 Inception Report

These maps and information will be used in conjunction with floodplain to be

obtained during the proposed river cross section survey.

47 E 11, 12, 15, 16

47 F 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

47 G 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

47 H 9, 13, 14, 15, 16

47 I 3, 4, 8, 12, 15, 16

47 J 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

47 K 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

47 L 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14

47 M 4

47 N 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16

47 O 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15

47 P 1, 5, 9

48 I 1, 5

56 B 4, 8

56 C 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

3.2.5 Task-1.5 Define options and scenarios for optimal multiple

reservoir operation

A variety of scenarios will be defined while developing an optimal reservoir

operation guide. There are two main types of scenarios: General and Specific.

General scenarios are applicable to all reservoirs in the basin. For example, the

system behaviour (present and future stages and related releases) may be analysed

for a set of climatic conditions either based on historical data or based on forecasts.

A set of pre-defined simulated scenarios of rainfall, inflows, downstream floods,

release for each water use will be stored in the system for use during the real time

scenario management. Another method of testing an input scenario is using

statistical methods. For example, what will be the flooding if the forecast rainfall

varies by ±20%? Long term scenarios include hydrological impacts of climate

change and land use changes in catchment. Both short and long term forecasts will

be used to analyse “what if” scenarios. Short term forecasting is carried out when

rainfall is dominating the catchment runoff, and will guide operations in flood

Figure 3-19 Index map of topo sheets of SOI


Inception Report 37

situations, and day to day operations. Long term forecasting will be applied to

predict seasonal flows dependent on long term climate predictions. The latter made

as stochastic predictions based on historical records and correlations have a higher

degree of uncertainty, though nonetheless useful for long term reservoir

management. The river basin and hydrodynamic models will be run with key

scenarios to simulate the performance of the system on selected historical flood and

drought events, with a full description of the system input and outputs.

Another set of scenarios are implemented by changing the simulated releases from

reservoirs either directly or through changing the operation strategy. Basic

predefined scenarios will be determined which could include varying the predicted

rainfall by say ±20%, varying reservoir releases, shifting the balance of releases

among the reservoirs, shifting the relative importance of flooding, irrigation and

hydropower. With the assistance of a scenario manager, users may also define their

own scenarios, including recalling previous events.

For example, what will be the level of satisfaction of crop water demand if a

reservoir release is changed from the long-term operation rule established to a new

rule based on short term forecasts? Another example could be what happens to

irrigation releases if the flood control buffer in reservoirs varies by ±20%?

The other category of scenarios belongs to specific operation scenario of a

particular reservoir system. These specific scenarios will be studied and tested in

consultation with the reservoir operators and other decision makers/stakeholders

during actual implementation of the reservoir operation guide. A Video

conferencing facility is therefore, useful at the operational control room. The

simulation models may be combined with optimisation routines to iterate

automatically through various operation scenarios to identify the ones best fulfilling

a set of predefined objectives, for example minimal downstream flooding,

maximum timely water supplies and hydropower generation. Often short term

objectives compromise long term objectives, thus short term analysis has to be

combined with long term analysis to reach a combined optimum.

The DSS Planning Project has reported a case study of testing a specific scenario in

the Upper Bhima Basin.

The reservoirs in the Upper Bhima Basin provide water to the various users throughout

the year, mainly within the agricultural, domestic, and industrial sector. Restrictions in

the water allocation may be required from time to time depending on availability and

user priority. While the water storage is known, the inflow to the reservoirs depends on

the climatic conditions in the coming months. It is likely that the inflow in the near

future will resemble the inflow of earlier years. In order to provide a solid basis for

planning, long time series of inflow to each reservoir in Upper Bhima have been

generated using the observed data and hydrological modelling. It is now possible to test

the performance of the reservoirs over the coming months for different water allocation

plans and the likely range of inflow.

An example is shown below for Pawna reservoir. Starting from the current reservoir

level, which has been set quite low in this example, and using planned releases to the

various users, the reservoir level for the next 12 months has been calculated for each of

the available 39 years of daily inflow (Figure 3-20).


38 Inception Report

Figure 3-20 Ensemble of 39 simulations of Pawna reservoir level variation as a

function of inflow.

These results are automatically further processed in the DSS into three curves,

representing different percentiles to indicate the likelihood of water level exceedence,

as shown below (Figure 3-21).

Figure 3-21 The Likely Variation of Pawna Reservoir in the Future

The curves represent:

- A dry year with low inflow and a late start of the next monsoon. This is shown as the

blue curve below. It is a pessimistic, but realistic, prediction, corresponding to a 1-in-

10 year low, as the likelihood of getting higher water levels is 90%


Inception Report 39

- An average year with a 50% likelihood is shown as the red curve

- A wet year with relatively high inflow and an early start of next monsoon. These – or

higher – levels have a 10% probability of occurring.

The user can in this way easily obtain information of the likely performance of a

reservoir for proposed water allocations. If the analysis shows an unacceptable risk of

failure, the user can modify the planned amount of water allocation and re-run the

analysis. These analyses may be made at any time of year and repeated regularly to

ensure that the reservoir operations are on track.

During the development and implementation of reservoir operation guidelines, the

existing strategies will be reviewed and analysed. WRD has been requested to

provide detailed information and data of all the reservoirs in the basin including the

operational rule curves.

The simulation models being developed integrate all the reservoirs in the two

basins. Therefore, it will be possible to look into the combined operation of the

reservoirs in which impacts of water releases from upstream dams will be reflected

in the downstream reservoirs.

3.2.6 Task 1.6 Review institutional capacity of WRD, and recommend

improvements for human resource development, and facilities for

effective functioning

The detailed description pertaining to this task is presented in Chapter 5 of this

report.


40 Inception Report

4 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH

4.1 Knowledge Base and Management System The Knowledge Base and its Management System will be based on DHI’s DSS

architecture which is presently being applied in the DSS-Planning Project

(NIH/World Bank) and for the RTDSS Project with Bhakra Beas Management

Board (BBMB/World Bank).

DSS Platform combines the MIKE modelling system via the Scenario Manager,

and it incorporates a general purpose simulation-optimisation framework to

provide an optimal solution to multiple often competing objective functions. In

addition, it incorporates a comprehensive Knowledge Management System, a

number of communication protocols, and a Web Portal with a user defined Alert

System

The Knowledge Base Management System within the DSS Platform provides an

existing proven structure with generic interfaces to external data allowing ready

import and export of data. Data access bridges ensure availability from various

sources such as HIS, weather forecasts, remote sensed data, RTDAS, etc. The

GIS interface conforms to the Open GIS Consortium, allowing linkage with, for

example, Google Maps for display and spatial queries.

4.1.1 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base

The Krishna-Bhima RTSF & ROS Knowledge base will basically adopt the

overall architecture and design from the DDS-Planning Project.

The Metadata document established during the Inception Phase and presented in

Appendix E, together with the Modelling Concept, presented in Section 4.2, is

setting out the need for further developments and configuration. During the

project implementation phase additional requirements might be revealed, but it is

anticipated that the Knowledge will comprise the following data:

Geographic Data

Infrastructure, built environments, demarcation, demographics, Land use and

vegetation, soils and surface geology, WRD offices and locations for emergency

services such as police and hospitals

Historical and Real-time Hydro-meteorological Time Series

Climate, Rainfall, Evaporation, discharge, river, reservoir and ground water level,

water quality, spatial cropping patterns, crop water requirements, hydropower

demands, satellite data and weather forecasts

Other Topography and Hydrography Data

Topography (DEM), water bodies (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, canals), hydraulic

structures (dams, barrages, abstractions), location and characteristics of gauging

stations, embankment alignments and heights


Inception Report 41

The major difference between the DSS-Planning Knowledge Base and the

database developed under the present RTSF & ROS project is the presence of

Real-time hydro-meteorological data, such as weather forecasts from Numerical

Weather Prediction models, on-line real time remote sensed data, and data from

the Real Time Data Acquisition System. These data shall be automated imported,

quality controlled and appended to existing observations.

The Knowledge Base architectural structure is shown below in Figure 4-1.

Figure 4-1: Knowledge Base Structure

4.1.2 Design and Development of the Knowledge Base Management

System

As for the Knowledge Base itself, the Management System shall be based on the

developments carried out under the DSS-Planning Project.

The front end to the Knowledge Management System will provide a graphical

user interface with explorer and data views, and tools for defining and targeting

data queries in explorer and data views in user defined formats (see for example

Figure 4-2).

In consultation with WRD, the Consultant will establish a set of pre-defined

reports (eg MS Excel report templates that can easily be tailored and modified).

These will enable flood managers, operators and other users to view the

information and data in the Knowledge Base in a convenient presentation format.

The reports will include maps with selected GIS features, satellite images, spatial

displays and charts of hydrologic data, tabular summaries of data, and documents.

The pre-defined reports will be oriented towards the different sectors, e.g.

hydrology, surface water, ground water, irrigation, power generation,

environment, demographics, etc. This will also include generation of daily crop

water requirement of major crops based on the real time data of climate stations

for the basin at key locations.

Analysis

Catchment Delineation Flooded Areas Terrain Slope and Aspect

Knowledge Base

Inputs GIS Maps Time Series Satellite Data

Outputs (pre and user defined) Documents and Tables Maps and Images Web Pages

Management Quality Control Backup and Restore Monitor Performance Upgrade and Expand


42 Inception Report

Figure 4-2: Example of a Knowledge Base Management System Front End

The knowledge management system can be accessed remotely over the

Intra/Internet controlled by User IDs and passwords by WRD offices, other

organisations and the general public, and in the field by PDAs (Personal Data

Assistant). Access privileges will be determined in consultation with WRD. In

addition to the Windows interface shown above in Figure 4-2, a web interface will

be developed. This will allow remote access and facilitating communication with

stakeholders and with the general public. The web-interface will be based on

DHI’s Dashboard Manager providing a number of tools for composing web pages,

enhancing Internet access and the web portal. Additional information regarding

this development are provided in Section 4.4: Communication and Information

Management System

4.2 Streamflow and Forecasting Models

4.2.1 Role of Mathematical Models

Mathematical models are used to predict future developments of the water

resources situation in the river basins on the basis of updated real time

information (short-term forecasting) or analyses of historical data and

developments (long-term forecasting). The models will be used to simulate the

hydrologic cycle and supplement the real time information from the RTDAS with

estimates of the state variables such as catchment runoff, reservoir inflow, levels

and releases and downstream flood conditions. In addition, the models will be


Inception Report 43

used to analyse effects of various reservoir operation strategies and to optimise

these rules.

Types of Models

Many types of computer models have been applied for forecasting and

management of hydrologic and hydraulic phenomena. Such models may be

categorised as empirical models and conceptual/physically based models.

Empirical models are sometimes termed black box models because they

concentrate on producing the correct output from a given input without

considering the processes that generate the output. This group includes various

types of correlation and regression analyses, ARMA (Autoregressive Moving

Average) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models,

neural networks, generic algorithms, etc.

The empirical type of model uses more or less advanced analyses of local

historical data to generate algorithms that result in the correct output. The models

are easy to establish and often quite effective. However, they are based on local

historical data and cannot account for changes in the system that may arise after

the period on which they have been trained. Since, they are based on local

historical data they are also not necessarily able to cope well with events out of

the data ranges used to develop them. Such events could be extreme floods larger

than those in the time series used in the development of the model.

Conceptual and physically based models are built on a description of the

physical system they represent. The degree of detail of the physical system

represented in the models varies. The conceptual model has the simplest system

description and may also include certain empirical elements. Conceptual models

are normally fast and robust while physically based models include a more

detailed process description and are, for this reason, often more computationally

demanding.

Both conceptual and physically based models need to be calibrated on historical

data from the area to give good results. During the calibration process, model

parameters are adjusted to fit the generated output as well as possible to reality.

The physical descriptions in the models are not changed during calibration.

This type of model benefits from a process description and understanding

developed on the basis of a large number of catchments and situations. They have

a better chance of simulating correctly extreme events not present in the

calibration data. Owing to their physical description, impacts of changes in the

physical system such as new infrastructure can be simulated. Empirical models

can only account for such changes after a certain period of time, maybe several

years.

The consultant has vast experience establishing modelling system of the

conceptual physically based type, and has successfully applied flow forecasting

and reservoir operation DSSs around the world. They are superior to empirical

models, are transparent and allow tracing the analytical process, adding to the

user’s trust in their results. The proposed selection of models are therefore based

on a conceptual and physically based suite of models.


44 Inception Report

The RTDAS and the model results will feed into multi or single criteria decision

tools which may be used directly by WRD or feed back into the models when they

are run in optimisation mode to suggest optimal or non-dominant solutions. The

detailed and tailor made design of such tools will be specified in close cooperation

with WRD.

Based on experience with similar systems, the types of conceptual and physical

models that will be included in the RTSF & ROS will be:

A meteorological forecast model external to the system - results from the

models will be used by the RTSF & ROS

A rainfall-runoff model for simulation of the transformation of rainfall into

evaporation, baseflow and superficial flow contributions to the rivers and

reservoir inflow

A river model with hydraulic and storage routing for routing of flow peaks

though the system and for simulation of releases and storage in reservoirs

A water resources allocation model to evaluate the impacts of the reservoir

strategy for downstream users and recipients and for the power production.

4.2.2 Flow Forecasting

Flow forecasting involves the use of hydrological and hydraulic models to

transform measured and predicted rainfall in a catchment to a forecast time series

of flows and water levels in a river system. They are typically used to provide

warnings to residents at risk during times of flood, but can also be applied to

predict inflows to reservoirs to optimise operations and hydropower production.

Required features are:

(1) Hydrological Rainfall-Runoff module (RR) which routes rain water to

the rivers. The hydrological module utilises real time rainfall data as

well as quantitative precipitation forecasts to generate runoff

hydrographs to the future forecast horizon.

(2) Hydrodynamic module (HD), which routes forecast inflows from the

RR module through the rivers, canals and reservoirs included in the

model. This may additionally include the dynamic operation of gates or

other moveable structures. Fully dynamic routing is essential where

rapid changes in flows or water levels occur, e.g. for short term

simulation in power canals or for flood operations of structures. Where

this is not required, e.g. for long term forecasting, simpler routing models

can be used.

(3) Structure operation (gate or hydropower discharge) module (SO),

which incorporates the defined rules for operating the reservoir, which

may change dynamically during a model simulation.


Inception Report 45

(4) Data assimilation module (DA), which applies real time corrections to

the simulated water levels and discharges based on available

measurements, and makes a prediction of the necessary corrections to the

forecasting horizon. Real time data assimilation is an essential

prerequisite for an accurate flow forecasting system. The technology is

described further in the following section.

(5) A decision support system (DSS) to coordinate the exchange of data

between the telemetry system and the model, and to provide operators

with a user friendly interface to the underlying models. The core of

modern inflow and flood forecasting systems is thus a hydrological and

hydraulic model that applies to the current state of the river basin.

The frequency of short term forecasts will vary over the year and according to the

alarm level. The frequency may be daily during the low flow season and during

filling of the reservoirs. During the period with high reservoir levels and high

rainfall the frequency increase to four times a day or even more. The frequency

can increase automatically when certain alarms in the systems are triggered.

Flood peaks have to be calibrated at least on an hourly resolution. For important

historical floods, the preceding rainfall events as well as flood water levels and

flows should be on an hourly basis. This also applies to other highly dynamic

events in the river such as flooding due to burst of upstream blockages or waves

generated by flushing upstream reservoirs.

All available data for the largest floods on records will be studied and a decision

made on how many of these floods to include in the model calibration.

Short Term Forecasting

In situations where rainfall is dominating flow conditions, due to the response

time of the catchment, the models

can predict the runoff and the

reservoir inflows around one or two

day ahead on the basis of the

climatic input observed up to the

time of forecast (Figure 4-3). If

reliable precipitation and temperature

forecasts can be made, this period

can be extended by some days.

Where the runoff is dominated by

baseflow or originates mainly from

reservoir releases the runoff can be

predicted with precision for a longer

time horizon on the basis of real time

information.

The short term forecasts may assist

in decisions regarding short term hydro power production strategies, day to day

operations in general and operation in flood situations in particular.

G r o u n d

D a ta

R A I N F A L L

F O R E C A S T S

F O R E C A S T S

S a te l l i t te

D a ta

M I K E 1 1M O D E L L I N G

Figure 4-3: Short term forecasting


46 Inception Report

Long Term Forecasts

Long term forecasts, used to predict the seasonal or annual inflows, depend on

long term climate predictions. Thus having a higher degree of uncertainty. Often

the climate predictions are made as stochastic predictions based on the historical

records (extended time series prediction), possibly combined with long term

meteorological predictions. This requires running simulation periods of many

historical years for each forecast, as illustrated in Figure 4-4. Often simpler flow

routing models are used in such cases.

.

Figure 4-4: Long term forecasting

Data Assimilation

No simulation model is perfect, implying that the variables and output of the

model will not completely match reality. For simulations into the future such as

forecasts, the real situation is not known beyond the time of forecast. However, it

has been found to be crucial for the accuracy of the forecasts that the stage

variables (river flows, reservoir volumes, etc.) in the model match the real

conditions in the basin at the same time, and that inaccuracies occurring in the

model are analysed and properly adjusted for the remainder of the forecast

simulation. The process of automating this procedure is termed data assimilation

(or model updating). It uses real time information from the basin up to the time of

forecast. The impact on forecasted flow series is illustrated in Figure 4-5.

Proper Data Assimilation is crucial for the accuracy of flow forecasts. State

variables in the model are adjusted to the real time conditions in the basin and the

errors analysed to produce the best estimate of the future. The process is

described in further detail in Section 4.2.2: Data Assimilation.

Real-time data

Sutron stations

Time of forecast

Historical Data

Extended Stream flow Prediction

Probabilistic forecast

-Real Time

Data


Inception Report 47

Figure 4-5: Data Assimilation Concept

Structure Operation

Control structures may be used whenever the flow through a structure is to be

regulated by the operation of a movable gate forming part of the structure. The

structure may be described as an underflow structure, an overflow structure, a

radial gate or a sluice gate. They can also be used to control the flow directly

without taking the moveable gate into consideration. In this case it can simulate

turbines and pump.

What If Scenarios

Both short and long term forecasts may be used to analyse “what if” scenarios,

and hence to predict impacts of certain regulations at the focus reservoirs as well

as at other reservoirs in the system. This is carried out by altering internal or

external model boundary conditions. Examples of such analyses are flood

operation scenarios, analyses of peak production strategies for upstream power

plants or flood consequences caused by extreme rainfall intensities during the

forecast period.

Optimisation

The models may be combined with optimisation routines to iterate automatically

through various operation strategies to identify the ones best fulfilling a set of

prescribed objectives. This is useful for determining optimal reservoir operation

strategies with short or long horizons from the coming days, to the next season

and to the coming years. The result of this model of operation could be optimised

releases during the coming dry season on a monthly or weekly basis. Since such

optimisations are typically computationally demanding, they may be carried out

with simplified models capable of running with time steps longer than the detailed

models normally used for short term inflow forecasting.

Flood Mapping

The hydrodynamic model will output water levels and discharges throughout the

system of reservoirs, rivers and flood plains. By matching the water levels with a

Digital Elevation Model (DEM), flooded areas, depths and durations are mapped.


48 Inception Report

Flood events can be displayed as animations of the flooded area from the onset to

the recession of the flood.

The Consultant will apply this mapping in GIS to study historical flood events,

and to map current and forecast situations in real time. The flood maps will

overlay basic infrastructure, human settlements and roads and railways (to assess

safe evacuation routes), etc.

4.2.3 Development of Simulation Models

Rainfall-Runoff

The rainfall-runoff module simulates the rainfall-runoff processes occurring at the

scale of a catchment and will be of the lumped conceptual type. The runoff

hydrographs can either be applied independently or used to represent one or more

contributing catchments that generate lateral inflows to the river network. In this

manner it is possible to treat a single catchment or a large river basin containing

numerous catchments and a complex network of rivers and channels within the

same modelling framework.

The rainfall-runoff module simulates the rainfall-runoff process by continuously

accounting for the water content in three different and mutually interrelated

storages that represent different physical elements of the catchment. These

storages are:

Surface storage

Lower or root zone storage

Ground water storage

The meteorological input data to the model are precipitation and potential

evaporation. On this basis, the model produces time series of catchment runoff

and information about other elements of the land phase of the hydrological cycle,

such as soil moisture content and groundwater recharge. The resulting catchment

runoff is split conceptually into overland flow, interflow and baseflow

components.

The baseflow depends on the difference between the ground water level and the

level of the outflow point in the linear reservoir. The latter is normally constant,

but may be given a seasonal variation to represent the baseflow conditions of

catchments draining to large rivers, which have a seasonal variation independent

of the local hydrological conditions.

The rainfall-runoff model (NAM) catchments for both the Krishna and Bhima

basins have been delineated as shown in Figure 4-6. In delineating the 93

catchments the following factors have been considered: topography, rainfall

variation, sub-basin outlets, watershed atlas produced by Soil & Land Use Survey

of India (www.cgwb.gov.in) and the Maharashtra Water & Irrigation Commission

Report (1999). The present delineation of catchments is in agreement with the

http://www.cgwb.gov.in)/


Inception Report 49

sub-basin map available in the above report. The All India Soil and Land Use

Survey (AISLUS) Organization (Now known as Soil and Land Use Survey of

India) of the Department of Agriculture and Cooperatives has published a national

level watershed atlas on 1: 1 million scale using the base map from irrigation atlas

of India in the year 1990. In this atlas, the entire river systems of the country have

been divided into 6 Water Resources Regions, which have been further divided

into 35 basins and 112 catchments. These catchments have been further divided

into 500 sub-catchments and 3237 watersheds. The atlas consists of 17 sheets on

1:1 million scales along with a compendium of watersheds giving details of other

related information such as area within the basin, sharing states and stream names

etc. This atlas is being extensively used for various purposes by all the State and

Central Government agencies, including WRD and GSDA of Government of

Maharashtra.

Further refinement in the delineation may need to be carried out in course of

model calibration and when more information becomes available.

Figure 4-6: Rainfall-Runoff Model (NAM) Catchment Delineation

An important asset for the rainfall-runoff model is a proven built-in

autocalibration routine, which significantly reduces the work load for model

establishment and calibration. A sample result of rainfall-runoff model

calibration from the DSS-Planning Project for one catchment in Upper Bhima is

shown in Figure 4-7.


50 Inception Report

Figure 4-7: Calibration of Upper Bhima Catchment with discharge at Chaskaman

River Hydraulics – Short-time Forecasting

The module will analyse and predict the flows and water levels in rivers and

canals in response to defined inflows, downstream water levels and gate

operations. The model will therefore be of the physically based finite difference

type. The core hydrodynamic component provides a robust and stable numerical

solution to the Saint-Venant equations of mass and momentum conservation in a

one dimensional network. The solution is equally applicable to open channels or

closed (pressurised) systems such as tunnels.

Dynamic structure operations (e.g. gates, pumps, turbines) have to be

incorporated, allowing the operation to be defined based on other model variables

in the system (flows, levels) or time functions on defined priorities. The module

has to cater for a wide range of hydraulic structures including:

Weirs

Culverts

Pumps

Reservoir operation

Bridges

Dynamically controllable gates

Dam or embankment breaches

The modules require reservoir modelling capabilities, and to accommodate multi-

purpose reservoirs and multiple reservoir systems. While the water resources

module focuses on the allocation and use of water resources (see section??), the

hydraulic aspects of structure operations are addressed by the hydrodynamic river

module.


Inception Report 51

The entire reaches of the Bhima and the Krishna River and their major tributaries

are being developed for irrigation, hydropower and flood control, with projects

running virtually head to tail in some of the catchments.

The module must therefore be capable of simulating the complex operation of the

control structures with full hydrodynamics of the complex flow patterns,

compounded by reflections and interference patterns in the reservoirs.

The development of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model has also been initiated.

Based on available river and reservoir shape files and satellite images the river

network is being digitized. An example of this is shown in Figure 4-8.

After the overall schematisation nodes (junctions and bifurcations) will be

detailed, reservoirs schematised, structures inserted and calibrated and cross-

sections (new and existing) applied.

Figure 4-8: MIKE 11 River schematisation


52 Inception Report

Water Resources Allocation – Long-time Forecasting

The water resources allocation model is required for long term simulations and for

water resource allocation issues.

The model should be simple and intuitive, yet provide in-depth insight for

planning and management. While the hydrodynamic module is applied to systems

where advanced hydrodynamic routing of inflow hydrographs is important, for

example to analyse the hydrodynamic impact of fast gate operation as a function

of hydraulic conditions (water levels, flow velocities, or concentrations) at any

location in the system or to predict impacts of highly dynamic flooding events, the

water resources model simulates the long term seasonal variation in flow pattern

and their management for various purposes. A model of the conceptual type is

preferred for this purpose due to its flexibility in calculation time steps and faster

computations.

The MIKEBASIN river basin water resources modelling system is being

developed for water assessment and water allocation (Figure 4-9).

Figure 4-9 MIKEBASIN Model Schematic for the Krishna and Bhima Basins

The long term management of the water resources is based on rules for the

allocation of water throughout the basins to various priorities: water supply,

irrigation, hydropower, the environment, and intra and interbasin diversions. The

allocations can vary according to the level of stress in the system.

The modelling systems have to be equipped with GIS based graphical user

interfaces that offer a unique and flexible environment to establish and maintain

an overview of the real time or predicted water resources situation in larger

management areas. Not only do these opportunities serve reservoir operators and


Inception Report 53

decision makers in the development of short and long term operation strategies,

they also serve as excellent means of communication of complex technical

matters to non-specialists such as political decision makers and stakeholder

groups.

The module should have built in routines for hydropower simulation, for

optimization and the derivation of reservoir operation rules.

Crop Water demand

Crop water demands can vary significantly from year to year. In the Krishna-

Bhima Basin, it is understood that cropping patterns and farmer behaviour are

relatively stable, crop water coefficients are well established, and the main factors

affecting the crop water requirement are rainfall and soil moisture. The cropping

pattern and water requirement for each reservoir command will be determined

using satellite images and project database. The timing of releases from the

reservoir will be advised based on crop water demand schedule. During drought

years the critical water demand will be considered.

A biophysical approach is proposed to compute crop water demand (FAO56

CropWat) for major crops, where actual and forecast soil and soil moisture

conditions, crop types and growth stages, and climatic data are used to compute

evapotranspiration and hence forecast water requirements. Ground water

abstraction and recharge can also be incorporated.

Reservoir simulation and Structure Operation

Except a few reservoirs with minor or no effect on the flow conditions within the

two river basins, the operation of the Bhima and the Krishna reservoirs will be

schematised in the short-time hydrodynamic as well as in long-term water

allocation forecasting models.

Elevation-Volume-Area (EVA) relations together with relevant geometrical

information are being obtained as listed below:

Stage-Volume and Stage-Surface Area relations

All existing reservoir bathymetric surveys

Type of Dam (Arch, Buttress, Gravity, Embankment)

Spillway information (no’s, crest levels, widths)

Gate information (no’s, crest levels, widths, type (underflow, overflow,

radial)

The geometrical information shall be incorporated into the respective

mathematical models together with structure operation strategies, reservoir

operation rules, irrigation demands, expected leakage, etc. To the extent possible

the structure flow and corresponding energy loss will be calibrated, either based

on observed data or on design criteria. A typical example is the Khadakwasla dam

(Figure 4-10), which shows irrigation outlet (front) and flood spillway (most

distant) is shown.


54 Inception Report

Figure 4-10: Khadakwasla Dam

Data Assimilation - Model Stage Updating

State updating or data assimilation (DA) refers to methods that take into account

real time measurements such as water level or discharge in preparing a forecast,

and then adjusting the model through a feedback process to match the

observations (see Figure 4-11). Updating is adopted for real time forecasting to

improve the initial state of the system prior to the time of forecast. In addition,

updating is applied to model correction in the forecast period to account for any

inadequacy in the model or in the input data.


Inception Report 55

Figure 4-11: State Updating with Data Assimilation

Updating the forecasts on observed runoff or water levels provides a practical

method of reducing the sensitivity of the flow forecasting model to uncertainties

in rainfall data, as well as taking advantage of the persistence in hydrologic flows

to reduce prediction errors. Applying data assimilation techniques in flow

modelling significantly enhances model accuracy.

Both real time and forecast data are required to run a real time forecast. Real time

and near real time information is used to assimilate the conditions in the model to

the conditions in the basin, while forecast data are used as model input from the

time of forecast into the future.

Flood Mapping

The hydrodynamic model will output water levels and discharges throughout the

system of reservoirs, rivers and flood plains. In addition the hydrodynamic model

is able to simulate and present (in hindcast as well as in forecast mode) overbank

river flow and inundation.

The flood mapping is an integrated component in the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic

model. Based on applied river cross-sections, reservoir storage capacities and

available terrain data (a DEM) these 2-dimensional flood maps will be generated

“on the fly”, either as maximum flood inundation maps or as time series in two

horizontal dimensions. I.e. inundation maps are available immediately after

finalising the forecast simulation.

Inundation maps can be published either in a GIS environment or in Google Earth

(GE). Below in Figure 4.12 an example of flood inundation maps from upstream,

respectively downstream Bhakra Dam are presented.


56 Inception Report

Figure 4-12: Flood Inundation Maps from the BBMB DSS project

The Consultant will apply this mapping in GIS to study historical flood events,

and to map current and forecast situations in real time. The flood maps will

overlay basic infrastructure, location of WRD offices and emergency services,

roads and railways (to assess safe evacuation routes), etc.

Catchment and Flood Plain Topography

To generate flood inundation maps a reliable DEM must be established for the

flood prone areas

Generally for accurate flood plain mapping, a vertical accuracy better than ±0.5m

is required, though useful indicative flood maps can be prepared from less

accurate data. The absolute accuracy of remote sensed DEMs (the SRTM 90m

and ASTER 30m DEM) will not be better than say ±5m, though the relative

accuracy from one grid to the next will be higher.

The Consultant has discussed this issue with WRD in connection with the review

of the river survey campaign. It was agreed that, in all the flood prone areas, the


Inception Report 57

river transects should be extended into the floodplains up to levels above highest

possible flood level

These transects, together with available satellite images, shall then form the basis

for developing the Digital Terrain Models (DTM).

4.2.4 Boundary Conditions

Meteorological data

Meteorological data are used as input to the hydrological rainfall runoff model.

Historical data are required for model calibration and for long term simulations

while real time information is required for short term forecast simulations

The following data types are required by the models:

Precipitation

Potential evapotranspiration or meteorological parameters allowing

this estimation

Historical meteorological data are available from the ground observation network

while real time information on these data types will be collected through the DAS.

Data from Meteorological Models and Satellite Data

Collection and processing of these data are discussed in Chapter 3.

Presently the Krishna and Bhima catchments within the State of Maharashtra are

not covered by any meteorological radar thus radar observed rainfall cannot be

applied in the forecasting models.

The Consultant is aware of the availability of Satellite-based Rainfall Data from

the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (i.e. TRMM) available from the NASA’s

website (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/overview_dir/background.html). Historical

data are available in 3-hour time step format and the possibility of sourcing and

applying real-time data is being investigated.

As Numerical Weather Prediction on an operational basis has been carried out by

the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for more than 20 years these data

shall form the basis of the short-term QFP. But with a possibility of manual

adjustment prior to submission of the forecast simulations. The forecast products

of NWP are available on the website of IMD. These forecasts are updated at

regular intervals.

4.2.5 Integration with Real-time Data

Following the setup and calibration of the NAM hydrological Rainfall-Runoff and

the MIKE 11 HD hydrodynamic river flow models, these shall be imported into

and configured in DHI’s Flood Watch Online DSS tool.

Flood Watch Online is a user friendly platform, which is used to assist in the daily

forecasting procedure. Flood Watch Online can run in automated mode or it can

work in manual controlled mode. Flood Watch Online operates on a MIKE 11

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/overview_dir/background.html


58 Inception Report

model, which will include the most important rivers and tributaries, sub-

catchments and all important reservoirs.

Flood Watch Online Includes:

Online status of forecast simulation including display of last forecast time

Provision to load historical model simulation from archive.

Fast access to data at all forecast locations through a mapping interface

Time series data of forecasts and observations available in graphical and

tabular view with graphical zooming facilities (Figure 4-13).

Figure 4-13: Flood Watch On-line

On-line, but user restricted Configuration Editor (Figure 4-14). Direct

access to the forecasting model via the “MIKE11 Editor” button.

Provision to View the Log file from the MIKE11 simulation

Direct access to the MIKE11 Result Viewer via the “Result Viewer”

button. Via this viewer it is possible to carry out detailed examination of

simulation results before a publication is executed. Provision for opening

MIKE FLOOD WATCH in a GIS environment.

Provision to run and test alternative scenarios with user defined rainfall

(Figure 4-15) and/or reservoir operation strategies (Figure 4-16).


Inception Report 59

Figure 4-14: Configuration of Flood Watch Online

Figure 4-15: Example of QPF adjustment

Figure 4-16: Example of Reservoir Operation Strategy


60 Inception Report

4.3 Reservoir Operation Guidance System

4.3.1 Implementation of Existing Operation Rules

Step one in developing the Reservoir Operation Guidance System must be an

implementation of existing strategies in both the long- and the short term

forecasting models.

Both MIKE BASIN, which shall form the modelling component in the long-term

forecasts and MIKE 11 HD, applied in the short-term forecasts, have extensively

developed Structure Operation Modules.

The BSD has started collection of Operation Rule curves and other documents

from the 46 major reservoirs located within the project area, which will be handed

over to Consultants. About 19 major reservoirs will have been given the highest

priority with respect to schematisation and model implementation but shall be

succeeded by collection of similar information from the minor reservoirs too.

In addition to the operation rules, reservoir capacities as stage-volume and stage-

area relations and structural information (dam types, spillways, gate dimensions,

etc.) are being collected and processed.

4.3.2 Optimisation of Existing Operation Rules

Short term optimisation of operations in succeeding hours and days will be based

on the outputs from the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model, whereas long term

optimisation over succeeding weeks and months shall be based on the outputs

from the MIKE Basin water resources model.

In order to optimise the model simulations with respect to water resources and

flood management, a set of objective functions and constraints will be defined in

consultation with WRD. The optimisation process will iterate automatically

through a large number of simulations representing various strategies to identify

those best fulfilling the prescribed objectives.

Rule Curve Optimisation

The Rule Curve optimisation will be based on historical data and will be

developed applying the MIKE 11 AUTOCAL module. Dependencies among

variables and weights assigned to the different objectives shall be defined in close

corporation with WRD.

The AUTOCAL optimisation procedure consists of the optimisation of a single

objective function, being a weighted aggregate of the different objective functions

defined. By performing several optimisation runs with different sets of weights,

the entire Pareto surface can be explored (Figure 4-17). Eventually, the decision-

maker can express his/her choice to select a preferred optimum from the Pareto

solutions. It is also possible to include a multi-objective optimization, if the

decision makers (or reservoir operators) are capable of setting objective functions

in terms of water release targets, economic benefits or losses from flood damages.


Inception Report 61

However, rigorous multi-objective optimization may only be carried out off-line

and results stored for comparison during actual operation.

Figure 4-17: Rule Curve Optimisation

Based on this optimisation, the goodness of possible updating of the individual

rule curves will be discussed among stakeholders of WRD during the actual

implementation.

A set of demonstration cases will be established, presented to users and

documented. For demonstration at the Interim Workshop, and presentation in the

Interim Report, two cases will cover selected monsoon and dry periods. Based on

these experiences, the updated rules curves will be suggested, if required.

4.3.3 Operational Guidance System

The entire system including the knowledge base, forecasting models, optimisation

and scenarios, will be encapsulated within an Operational Guidance System.

During the Inception Phase the needs of WRD as well as civil authorities with

regard to media and formats for flood forecasting and dissemination have been

discussed. A pilot system will be presented at the Interim Report and

demonstrated during the Interim Workshop proposed to be organised in the first

half of April 2012.

4.4 Communication and Information Management System The Knowledge Base Development (Section 4.1) will provide WRD with an

invaluable data bank of information for multiple decision situations. Combined

with the analytical capabilities of the RTSF system, the Reservoir Operation

optimisations delivered through the ROS this system and simulation results from

short- and long-term forecasting will provide WRD with a strong decision support

capability.

A password protected user login system will grant access according to categories

of users, from WRD managers to the general public as defined below:


62 Inception Report

Administrator - a profile that provides access to all parts of the system

Configurator - a profile that provides access to the all parts of the system

except those aimed at making administrative and once-in-a-lifetime

settings. Typically, this profile is assigned to staff setting up the system

Forecaster - a profile that provides access to all features required to work

with the forecast related parts of the system. Typically, this profile is

assigned to staff working with the system on a daily basis to produce

forecasts

Viewer - a profile that facilitates viewing of observed and forecasted data.

Typically, this profile is assigned to managerial staff interested in

examining data and results

4.4.1 Communication Strategy and protocols

The Communication and Information Management System will be based on the

DSS Platform incorporating the Knowledge Management System and the Web

Portal, disseminating data from the Knowledge Base, the RTSF and ROS

analytical modules and from the short- and long-time Forecasting modules.

The layout of the Communication and Information Management System is shown

below in Figure 4-18: Communication and Information Management System and

detailed in the following sections.


Inception Report 63

Figure 4-18: Communication and Information Management System

4.4.2 Web Portal

The Web Portal will be the gateway to the Knowledge Base and to the RTSF and

ROS inclusive forecasts from the short- and long-time forecasting modules. The

Consultant will develop the Web Portal using the Dashboard Manager, which is

an integrated part of the Consultant’s DSS Platform and provides a point-and-

click interface for developing web pages on top of the DSS data and modelling

capabilities.

The web portal will be configured to display all relevant data from the Knowledge

Base and the RTSF and ROS, including:

Historical and real-time hydro-meteorological time series.

Forecasts (river and reservoir stages and river flow) from the forecasting

models

Observed and forecasted reservoir inflow and proposed releases

Gate operation strategies incl. real-time gate positions

Flood Inundation maps.

Knowledge SystemManagement SystemMetadata & AtlasKnowledge BaseReal Time Data

ROSOptimisation Climatic ConditionsReservoir and River Levels Flood Plain InundationGate OperationsWater Supply Allocation

Re

serv

oir

Op

era

tio

na

lG

uid

an

ce S

yst

em

Web Portal SecurePassword loginAccess levels

In the fieldOn the move

In the office

RTSF Flood ForecastingWater Resources Scenarios, Demo Cases

Discussion Forum

Alerts


64 Inception Report

The information will be available by clicking on GIS maps and basin schematics.

Examples of customised web interfaces are given in Figure 4-19 and 4.20.

Figure 4-19: Customised Web Interface

Figure 4-20: Example of DHI’s Dashboard Manager driven web application

with GIS and time series visualisation


Inception Report 65

From the web-portal users will be able to:

navigate among different views through a menu system

select different stations within the basin and display e.g. RTDAS records

and forecasts, including fact boxes for selected items

Report output from the latest executed stream-flow and reservoir operation

forecast model output, displayed as time series, tables and GIS maps

showing inundated areas

4.4.3 The Alert Module

Alerting is a means of information dissemination, pushing information to specific

staff and organisations for their immediate action. The DSS Platform logs all

messages issued by processes such as real-time data import, simulation processes,

publication processes and task execution processes and the Alert Module makes it

possible to respond to any state in the system.

The Consultant will in corporation with WRD define relevant alarms, each to be

triggered to raise the alarm and the associated system response. Examples of

states that users can respond to are:

Upward or downward real-time data thresholds

Upward or downward thresholds of selected simulation time series results

Premature termination of tasks, simulations and publications

RTSF & ROS Krishna and Bhima River Basins

66 Inception Report

5 CAPACITY BUILDING

5.1 Introduction The goal of Capacity building is to ensure that by the end of the project WRD has a

self sustaining team operating and maintaining the Real Time Streamflow Forecast

and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS), with a strong internal structure,

and links to external organisations with whom WRD can share experience, impart

to and draw on external knowledge. As a process of needs analysis, a review of the

existing organisations and institutional arrangement is made in the following

sections.

5.2 Water Resources Department (WRD) Water Resources Department, formerly known as Irrigation Department of

Government of Maharashtra has a glorious history of Irrigation over last 150 years.

The Water Resources Department (WRD) is entrusted with the surface water

resources planning, development and management. A large number of major,

medium and minor water resources development projects have been constructed in

Maharashtra. The State Water resources Department tackles Irrigation projects

which irrigate area more than 250 ha.

In order to speed up the completion of irrigation projects, WRD has formed 5

Irrigation Development Corporations viz. Maharashtra Krishna Development

Corporation (MKVDC), Vidarbha Irrigation Development Corporation (VIDC),

Konkan Irrigation Development Corporation (KIDC), Godavari Marathwada

Irrigation Development Corporation (GMIDC) and Tapi Irrigation Development

Corporation (TIDC). The office of Director General at Nashik is responsible for

Design, Training, Planning & Hydrology, Research and Survey. Under this office

the Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute (MERI), Nashik conducts research

in Civil Engineering and allied fields. The Water and Land Management Institute

(WALMI) at Aurangabad is headed by Director General, which conducts the

research and training in Water Management.

5.2.1 Planning & Hydrology

The Office of Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology is located at Nashik and was

established during Hydrology Project Phase-I. The Organisational set up of units of

WRD involved in RTSF & ROS project is shown in Figure 5.1. Hydrology Project

has developed and implemented a Hydrological Information System (HIS) through

improvement and strengthening the infrastructure of Hydro-meteorological stations,

training extensively the personnel involved and computerization of the data for

meaningful analysis and dissemination to the users. The use of SWDES and

HYMOS software in data entry and processing has resulted in giving out quality

data. Figure 5.2 depicts a structure of HIS.

Development of hydrological database is supporting major aspects of State and

Central level Water Policy particularly in: Water Allocation, Water Planning, Water

Management and Water Quality Monitoring. The Hydrology Project has five data

processing centres and 26 sub-divisional data processing centres with the main

State Data Processing Centre and the State Data Storage Centre at Nashik.

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

Inception Report 67

(Rel

ate

d t

o R

TSF

& R

OS

Pro

ject

)


68 Inception Report

Based on the database created under the Hydrology Project phase I (HP-I),

Government of Maharashtra has authorized Hydrology Project organization to

assess the yield for any project to be taken up and certify the water availability. The

project can be sanctioned by any organization only if water availability is certified

by this organization. One Water Planning Division has been assigned the work on

yield computation of proposed schemes.

Figure 5-1 Structure of the Hydrologic Information System (HIS) of HP-I

5.2.2 The Basin Simulation Division (BSD)

The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) at Pune was established in April, 2008 after

recommendations of the Vadnere Committee for Real Time Streamflow and Flood

Forecasting.

The reservoirs in Maharashtra though not developed specifically as flood control

reservoirs, they have moderated flood peaks to considerable extents by adopting

proper reservoir operations. The reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower,

irrigation, domestic and industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as

single entities based on the historical hydro-meteorological data and experience

gained. These methods are often not adequate for establishing optimal operational

decisions, especially where integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood

management is contemplated. In addition, manual data observation and

transmission results in a considerable time lag. The time taken between data

observed in field and its communication to decision making level provides little

time for flood forecasts. Therefore, under the Chief Engineer, Planning &

Hydrology, the Basin Simulation Division has been established at Pune, which is


Inception Report 69

engaged in upgrading the existing HIS with real time data acquisition system

(RTDAS) for Krishna and Bhima basins and for the development and

implementation of “Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation

System.” The present Organizational set-up of Basin Simulation Division is given

in Figure 5.3.

Figure 5-2 Organogram of the Basin Simulation Division, Pune

BSD is headed by an Executive Engineer supported by administrative staff. At

present there are four Assistant Engineers (Grade –I) and six Assistant Engineers

(Grade-II). The six Assistant Engineers (Grade-II) are also assigned to sub-

divisions in Shirur, Kohlapur, Sangli, Stara, Solapur and Pune. Table 5.1 presents

the list of BSD Officers.

The organisational aspects of the RTSF& ROS are of paramount importance for the

sustainability of the established systems. It is important to foster an environment

through training and participation in which WRD staff take ownership of the

system. To sustain this it is critical to establish simple and well thought work

processes ensuring optimal use of the capabilities of the modelling systems. The

BSD is, therefore, considered as the key division of WRD in implementing the

project and develop into a sustainable organisation in operating, maintaining and

updating the modelling systems developed under the RTSF& ROS project.

Therefore, the training needs assessment and institutional development plan is

focussed at BSD.


70 Inception Report

Table 5.1 List of Officers of BSD, Pune

Sl.

No

Name Designation Educational

Qualification

Responsibility / experience

1 Dnyandeo A

Bagade

Executive

Engineer

M Tech.

(Hydraulics &

Water Resources

Engineering)

In-charge of Basin Simulation Division, Pune. Network

Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB tendering for

procurement of consultancy, Goods and related services.

Responsible for execution of RTDSS work(Krishna and

Bhima Basin)

In-charge of Hydro-meteorological Data processing division

Nashik. Data dissemination activities.

Data collection, Validation, and management of Hydro-

meteorological network of Ratnagiri District, Investigation of

Irrigation project

Construction of LIS, canal works, survey works,

rehabilitation works in Satara district.

2 Girish V

Nagarkar

Assistant Engineer

Gr-I

M.E.(Construction

& Management)

Hydrology Project, Network Investigation for RTDSS

Maharashtra, ICB tendering for procurement of Goods and

related services.

Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Bhima Basin)

3 Shivali D

Pardeshi

Assistant Engineer

Gr-I

B.E.(Civil)

Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)

Canal works

Design of civil structures

4 Deepgauri A

Joshi

Assistant Engineer

Gr-I

B.E.(Civil)

Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)

5 Mayur M

Mahajan

Assistant Engineer

Gr-I

B.E.(Civil)


Water supply works

6 Yojana B

Patil

Assistant Engineer

Gr-II

B.E.(Civil)

Network Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB

tendering for procurement of consultancy, Responsible for

execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)

Water quality validation, Hydro-meteorological Data

validation

7 Rahul B Mali Assistant Engineer B.E.(Civil) Responsible for execution of RTDSS work (Krishna Basin)


Inception Report 71

Sl.

No

Name Designation Educational

Qualification

Responsibility / experience

Gr-II

Irrigation Project Investigation

8 Sanjay G

Bhakt

Assistant Engineer

Gr-II

B.E.(Civil)


Irrigation Project Investigation in Krishna Basin.

Hydro-meteorological data processing

9 Sushma D

Meshram

Assistant Engineer

Gr-II

B.E.(Civil)

Network Investigation for RTDSS Maharashtra, ICB

tendering for procurement of Goods and related services,


Hydro-meteorological Data validation

10 Asish S

Jadhav

B.E.(Civil)

HP Pune Sub-division

Hydro-meteorological data

11 C S Desai B.E.(Civil)

HP Kolhapur Sub-division

Hydro-meteorological data


72 Inception Report

5.2.3 Training Needs assessment

The training needs assessment of the officers at BSD is based on the educational

background, professional experience and the requirements of the RTSF&ROS

project during the development stage as well as during actual operation. If as

proposed, the officers are fully engaged with the consultant’s experts during the

development period, then they are expected to be capable of operating the system.

However, since this is the first time the officers will be taking a new responsibility,

they will need technical back up support from DHI for certain period after the

system is installed. This has been taken care of in the project by planning a

technical support period (including helpdesk support at DHI) for a period of 2 years

after instalment of the system. Table 5.2 shows a training needs assessment related

to the tasks of the project.

Table 5.2 Training Needs Assessment

Project Task Training Need in Subjects General level of

present staff of

BSD

Task 1:

Review Current Forecasting

and Operational Capabilities

None adequate

Task 2

Knowledge Base

Development

Data processing, verification, database

systems, working with GIS and Remote

sensing data

Basic

Task 3

Real-Time Streamflow /

Flood Forecasting Model

Hydrology, hydraulics, GIS,

hydrological modelling, hydrodynamic

modelling including flood forecast

(NAM, MIKE11, MIKEBASIN).

Mostly basic, a

new staff with

expertise in

meteorology and

forecasting will

be required.

Task 4

Reservoir Operational

Guidance System

DSS, river basin modelling

(MIKEBASIN) reservoir operation

modelling.

Basic

Task 5

Communication and

Information Management

Systems

Internet technologies, web design and

update

Basic, a new staff

with ICT

expertise will be

required at BSD

5.3 Institutional Development Plan

5.3.1 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD

The Basin Simulation Division will be responsible to maintain all the data and

models developed in the present project. Regular updating of the models including

timely validation as new data becomes available will also be the responsibility of


Inception Report 73

BSD. The operational control room will be central operations room for BSD.

Therefore, BSD will perform the following functions:

Operation and maintenance of the Data Acquisition System (Responsibility

of HPD, Pune)

Management of the central Database

Meteorological analysis and forecast

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of the basin

Update of the hydrologic and hydrodynamic models

Operation and maintenance of real time forecasting systems (inflow and

flood)

Operation and maintenance of the reservoir operation guidance system

Communication and information dissemination

These functions should be performed by the assistant engineering staff with one

executive engineer as the manager of BSD. The engineering staff will take turns to

manage the operational control room. Additional staff might be required to man the

operational control room round the clock during critical situations. In addition to

the existing assistant engineers, it is recommended to employ two more staff at

BSD: 1) Meteorologist, 2) ICT Expert. The proposed meteorologist should have a

postgraduate degree in meteorology/climatology with expertise in rainfall

forecasting and satellite data applications in meteorology. The ICT expert should

have a graduate degree in computer science/engineering with expertise in

information communication, web design and updates.

It is proposed to organise BSD into the following sub-divisions/sections. Also

shown in Figure 5.4 is the proposed Organogram.

No. Sub-div/Section Functions Responsible

Officer

Other staff

1 Operational

Control Room

Operation of the forecast

and reservoir operation

guidance system.

Assistant

Engineer (Gr-I)

Assistant Eng.

(Gr-II),

Meteorologist,

ICT Expert,

Office

Assistant

2 Meteorological

forecast

Management of

meteorological data,

Analysis of

meteorological conditions

of the basins,

Compilation of rainfall

forecasts.

Meteorologist

3 Database Acquisition of hydro-met,

river, reservoir, GIS and

satellite data and

database maintenance

Assistant

Engineer (Gr-I)

2 Assistant

Engineers

(Gr-II)


74 Inception Report

4 Modelling Maintain and update of

all models including DSS

and reservoir operation

system

Assistant

Engineer (Gr-I)

4 Assistant

Engineer (Gr-

II)

5 Information

Management

Communication of

forecasts, reservoir

operation guidance

system, dissemination of

flood forecasts, web page

management and updates.

ICT expert

Figure 5-3 Proposed Organogram of BSD

5.3.2 Operational Control Room

The Operational Control Room will be located at the 2nd floor of Sinchan Bhawan,

Pune together with the RTDAS Data Centre. Out of a total floor area of 1,000 sft,

the operation control room will occupy about 400 sft. The control room will be

linked to the BSD at the 4th floor with LAN. Both the BSD and the Control Room

will have dedicated broadband internet connectivity. The communication between

BSD and the Control Room should preferably be via intranet in addition to the

general purpose internet for links with all stakeholders. It is expected that all

important reservoir operation offices and related decision making offices in Pune,

Nashik, Mumbai and other districts have broadband Internet connectivity so that


Inception Report 75

communications to and from the control room is efficient and transparent. It is

expected that the Operational Control Room and hence the staff will be active

beyond the monsoon season. Water resources monitoring will be required for

droughts as well as for optimal management of the river basins.

Figures 5.5 and 5.6 show a schematic layout of the Control Room with tentative

dimensions.

Figure 5-4 Plan of the Operational Control Room

Figure 5-5 3-D View of the Operational Control Room


76 Inception Report

WRD will develop the physical infrastructure including uninterrupted power

supply, air-conditioning, window and door curtains/blinds and broadband internet

connection. The RTSF&ROS Consultant will provide the following equipment and

furniture:

Two (2) high performance Servers with UPS: 1 data server, 1 web server

Two (2) high performance PCs with UPS

One (1) high resolution wall mounted LCD display

One (1) high resolution web camera with Skype based video conferencing facility

One (1) printer with table

One (1) semi-circular/oval desk suitable for such a control room

Four (4) revolving chairs for operators and staff

One (1) conference table and eight revolving chairs

The data server will be linked to the computer in which processed real time data

from the RTDAS Data Centre are stored. It is also expected that BSD will have a

similar servers and PCs for back up and mirroring databases and modelling

systems.

5.3.3 Capacity Building and Training Plan during the Project

An integrated capacity building and technology transfer is being adopted during the

project period. The main components of the integrated capacity building are: formal

training on theoretical concepts and practical modelling tools, on-the-job training,

Workshops, International technical and study tours, technical and hotline support

during a period of 2 years after installation of the RTSF&RO system.

5.3.4 On-the-job training

In addition to the proposed formal training activities, all BSD officers and the

executive engineer will be engaged in the activities of the consultants. In order to

facilitate “learning by doing” The consultant’s office is provided with adequate

space for BSD officers to work together with the consultant’s experts. It is

proposed that the BSD officers are assigned with primary responsibilities of

working together with Consultant’s experts in the following field. However, these

staff will also learn other areas during training and also during on-the-job training.

Data management including GIS & Remote Sensing data: 2 officers

Rainfall – Runoff Modelling: 2 officers

Hydrodynamic (river) Modelling: 2 officers

Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation: 2 officers

Flood forecasting: 2 officers


Inception Report 77

5.3.5 Training Courses

The proposed training courses cover both theoretical concepts of hydrology and

hydraulics, data management, remote sensing and GIS tools, modelling tools and

reservoir operation guidance system. A training programme is presented in Table

5.3. It is also proposed that BSD officers attend some of the training courses offered

by the National Water Academy (NDA) based in Pune. In order to enhance

relevancy, the consultant staff will also deliver some of the training courses in

coordination with NWA.

The officers of BSD will also be encouraged to attend relevant courses in other

institutions in India on GIS, remote sensing, water resources management, disaster

management, ICT, Computer applications, web design, database management etc.


78 Inception Report

Table 5.3 Proposed Training Programme

No Duration /

date

Topic /

contents

Venue Trainers Participants

1 4 days

27-30 Sept.

2011

Introduction to Remote sensing & GIS

and application to water resources

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

Executive Engineer, and 8

officers of BSD (9 persons)

2 1 day

20 Oct. 2011

Introduction to modelling RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal,

Finn

Hansen)



3 1 week

16-20 Jan.

2012

Decision Support System (DSS) NWA,

Khadakwasla,

Pune

Experts of

DSS

(planning)

Project



4 1 week

5-9 Dec.

2011

Flood Forecast technology including

inflow forecast

NWA

Khadakwasla,

Pune

NWA

Faculty

4 officers of BSD

(this course was missed),

will consider future events.

5 3 days

22-24 Dec.

2011

Hydraulics: Open Channels, Control

Structures

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal)

8 officers of BSD

6 3 days

Jan. 2012

Hydrology: Concepts of rainfall runoff,

met forecasts, rainfall runoff modelling

using NAM

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff



7 3 days

Jan 2012

Hydrodynamic Modelling using MIKE11,

structure operation, flood forecasting

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Consultant

staff (Finn

Hansen)




Inception Report 79

No Duration /

date

Topic /

contents

Venue Trainers Participants

7 3 days

Feb. 2012

GIS & remote sensing: Use of GIS spatial

data, sources of data, image processing

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office

Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

8 officers of BSD

8 1 week

March 2012

Flood Disaster Management NWA

Khadakwasla,

Pune

NWA

Faculty,

Consultant’s

experts

4 officers of BSD

9 3 days

March 2012

Hydrodynamic modelling, flood mapping RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office

Consultant

staff (Finn

Hansen)

BSD officers and officers

from other stakeholders (CE

offices)

10 3 days

June 2012

Development of real time DSS, RTSF and

ROS system

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office

Consultant

staff

Executive Engineer & 8

officers of BSD (9 persons),

other stakeholders

11 1 week

Nov-Dec

2012

Application of RTDSS in real time stream

flow forecasting and reservoir operation BSD, Pune Consultant

staff

Executive Engineer & 8

officers of BSD (9 persons),

other stakeholders

12 1-3 days

Feb 2012-

Jan 2014

Operation of the RTSF&RO system,

maintenance, troubleshooting ( as &

when required during the technical

support period) four training courses to be

planned in consultation with WRD.

BSD Pune DHI All officers, several

courses.

RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

80 Inception Report

5.3.6 Workshops

Workshops are important forums for consultation as well as capacity building of

stakeholders. In this project a series of workshops will be conducted. Three

workshops, namely, Inception, Interim and Final will be organised as general

workshop with a large number of stakeholders. Two workshops will be of more

technical nature in which only WRD officials and selected and most relevant

stakeholders will be invited. As stipulated in the contract, the Workshop will be

arranged by client and will be facilitated by resource experts from consultant.

Figure 5-6 Schedule of Workshops (showing the timing in month in blue)

Table 5.4 Plan of Workshops

Sl.

No.

Workshop Date Activities

1 Inception

Workshop

7 December

2011

Presentation of Inception Report,

stakeholder consultation, further

needs assessment, feedback on

approach & methodology and on

capacity building plan.

2 Interim

Workshop

First week of

April 2012

Presentation of Interim Report,

feedback on the modelling systems

developed.

3 Workshop

on

Knowledge

base &

data

manageme

nt

Mid-June

2012

Demonstration of the knowledge

base and knowledge management

system, review of the RT DAS and

plan to incorporate the real time data

into the forecasting and reservoir

operation systems.

4 Workshop

on flow

and flood

forecasting

Mid-

September.

2012

Demonstration of the modelling system,

comments & discussion on the system,

including the forecasting formats and flood

mapping, suggestions to incorporate into

the final version of the forecasting system.

5 Workshop

on

Reservoir

Operation

Guidance

and

communi-

cation /

Last week of

November

2012

Demonstration of the Reservoir

Operation Guidance system,

comments and discussion on the

system, suggestions for incorporation

into the final version of the Reservoir

Operational Guidance System. The

communication and information

3 8 10 12 15 17


Inception Report 81

web portal management system including web

portal will also be demonstrated in this

workshop.

6 Final

Workshop

1st week Feb

2013

Presentation of Final Report,

feedback/comments/suggestions

in the Final Report, evaluation of

project achievement, finalisation

of technical support for the next

two years of system operation.

the project deliverables

5.3.7 International technical training cum study visits

It is proposed to conduct two technical study visits to two batches of technical

officers with six participants in each batch. Each of the technical training cum visit

will be of 2 weeks duration. It is also proposed that each group may be led by an

Executive Engineer. The tentative programme of the two week training cum study

visit is given below. The first batch of technical officers will go on the visit during

5 to 18 February 2012 and the second batch during 11 to 24 March 2012.

Week 1: Training at DHI Denmark

The technical officers will receive training from DHI experts on real time stream

flow forecasting, reservoir operation, flood mapping and flood forecasting, and on

modelling and web based water resources information management. They will be

presented with examples of real time forecasting systems from all over the world

based on DHI’s work. Various experts of DHI will be available for interactive

sessions with the participants.

Week 2: Technical visit to Austria and Slovenia

The first part of the technical visit will be conducted near Vienna, Austria where

the participants will visit the International Forecasting Centre in Graz. An

automated river forecasting system is working in three different basins in Styria,

namely the Mur, Raab and Enns rivers. The forecasting system is based on

MIKE11, similar to the system proposed to be implemented in the Krishna and

Bhima river basins. A field visit will be conducted in two basins (Mur and Raab)

to study the real time data acquisition systems.

The second part of the technical visit will be conducted in Slovenia. The

participants will be taken to the meteorological Office and the Forecasting Centre in

Ljubljana, Slovenia. A Mike11 based real time forecasting system is operation for

two river basins, namely Sava and Soca. Field visits will be organised in these

river basins to observed the telemetric network. The telemetry systems in these

basins are being upgraded since 2010 to utilise the latest technology available in the

market.

The timing of the above technical training cum visits will be finalised in

consultation with WRD. However, it is recommended that the visits be conducted

between January and May 2012 so that the technical staff of WRD get an early

exposure while the modelling work is being carried out in the RTSF&ROS Project.


82 Inception Report

5.3.8 International Study Tour

It is proposed to organise a study tour for eight senior officials of WRD to observe

real time forecasting and reservoir operation systems. The study tour will be of 1

week duration including travel days. Two alternate locations are being considered

at this stage. Further discussion with WRD is required to finalise the timing, venue

and budget for the study tour. The study tour is proposed to be conducted during 12

to 18 February 2012.

1. USA: to observe and interact with officials and experts in California

where several water resources system use real time data for optimal

operation of reservoirs, examples are: Black Canyon Irrigation District,

Napa Valley in San Francisco; Blackfoot Reservoir command area, a

fully automated systems for water release pattern. In terms of real-time

flood forecasting systems, most US Army Corps of Engineers and US

Bureau of Reclamation Reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest and California

have such systems

2. South Africa: to observe real time reservoir and river operations in the

Orange-Fish Sundays River Basin. The Orange-Fish-Sundays River

System in the Eastern Cape consists of an extensive system of canals,

tunnels, rivers, dams, and diversion weirs. Water is transferred from the

Orange River to the Great Fish River through a tunnel 83 km long. The

main purpose of this transfer is to satisfy irrigation demands. Due to a

general water shortage as well as problems arising from highly saline

return flows, it became necessary to make a real time model that could

assist the operators in deriving release hydrographs from the dams and

diversion weirs. These hydrographs will ensure that the irrigators receive

the right quantity and quality of water when required using a minimum

amount of water. The hydrographs will also ensure that the reservoir

water levels are kept within required limits during normal operation and

that excess water during flooding is diverted to reservoirs with any

storage capacity left. Finally the hydrographs also ensures a minimum

downstream flow. A comprehensive real time operational (including

optimization) water management system is implemented in this basin to

enable operators to optimize release hydrographs throughout the system.


Inception Report 83

6 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

6.1 Activity Schedule A summary of the schedule of project’s main tasks as stipulated in the contract is

shown in Figure 6-1. In order to complete the main tasks, each task is further divided

into sub-tasks or activities, the schedule of which is given in Figure 6-2. Figure 6-3

presents the schedule of reports and deliverables. The schedules presented in figures

6-1 through 6-3 are as stipulated in the contract and at this stage, there is no reason to

modify them. However, there are a few critical paths in the schedules, which are

related to the availability of data in time:

1. Availability of historical data (for model development & calibration)

2. Availability of river cross section data from the proposed new river

survey programme of WRD (for the development of the MIKE11 flood

forecasting models)

3. Availability of real time data on time from the RTDAS contract. In order

to develop the real time inflow forecasting, reservoir operation system

and flood forecasting, the proposed telemetry data must be received at the

data centre latest from the beginning of the monsoon season of 2012.

Figure 6-1 Overall Schedule of Project Tasks


84 Inception Report

Figure 6-2 Detailed schedule of activities / sub-tasks

Task duration

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42 Task input

1 Review of Current Forecasting and Operational Capabilities Workshop

1.1 Review Current Capabilities of WRD On-going

1.2 Identify Needs of WRD and Stakeholders

1.3 Review Basin Management Tools

1.4 Hydro-Climatological Data and Management System

1.5 Scenarios for Optimal Operation

1.6 Institutional Capacity of WRD

2 Knowledge Base Development

2.1 Functional Specifications of Knowledge Base

2.2 Design and Develop Database Management System

2.3 Develop Knowledge Base

2.4 Develop Knowledge System

3 Real Time Streamflow/Flood Forecasting Model (RTSF)

3.1 Develop simulation models

3.2 Integration with Forecasts and Real Time Data

3.3 Identify Critical River Reaches and Monitoring

3.4 Flood Mapping

4 Reservoir Operational Guidance System (ROS)

4.1 Develop Optimisation Models

4.2 Operational Guidance System

5 Communications and Information Management Systems

5.1 Communication strategy and protocol

5.2 Design and prepare specifications for Operational Control Room

5.3 Develop Web Portal

6 Capacity Building and Training

6.1 Engage WRD Staff in System Development

6.2 Training Programme

6.3 Workshops

6.4 International Study Tours

6.5 System Documentation and Manuals

6.6 Technical Support

6.7 Strategy for Long Term Sustainability

Provide RT-DSS Technical Support

Task Task Name1 2 3

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

13 14 15 16

Year 1

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 17 18


Inception Report 85

Figure 6-3 Schedule of Reports & Deliverables

Final deliverable

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42 Workshop or meeting

Demo

Monthly Progress Report including: Draft deliverable

Progress on Each Task to Date

Tasks to be Taken Up in Coming Months

Issues for Discussion with WRD

Inception Report

Inception Report; including

Assessment of Needs of WRD and Stakeholders

System Management Tools - Modelling Concept

Review of Available Data and Strategies to Fill Gaps -

Metadata Document

Definition of Key Scenarios

Training and Capacity Building Programme

Detailed Project Implementation Plan

Interim Report

Knowledge Base Development and Management System

Functional Specifications for Knowledge System

Design of Database Management System

Knowledge Base

Flow and Flood Forecasting Models

Modelling System

Calibration and Recommendations for Additional Data

Real Time Data Collection and Processing

Data Assimilation and Flow Forecasting

Identification of Critical Reaches

Flood Mapping

Reservoir Operational Guidance System

Optimisation Methodology

Optimisation Objectives and Constraints

Demonstration Cases

Communication and Information Management System

Communications Strategy and Protocol

Design and Specifications for Operational Control Room

Web Portal and Alert System

Capacity Building and Training

On-the-Job Training

Formal Training Programme

Workshop Programme

International Study Tours Programme

User and Reference Manuals

Final Report

Final Reporting on all Outputs covered in the Interim Report, plus:

Summary of Project Activities

Summary of Workshop Procedings

Programme for Technical Support

Strategy for Sustainability and Enhancement

Tecnical Support

Quarterly Reports

WRD Training Programme

Knowledge Base Updates and Model Recalibration

Support Issues Raised with Help Desk

Year 1Deliverables

1 2

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

143 4 5 6 7 8 15 16 17 18

Monthly Progress Reports

9 10 11 12 13


86 Inception Report

6.2 Project Management

6.2.1 Project Organisation

The basis of the project organisation is a close partnership between WRD/BSD and

the consultant, which will ensure maximum efficiency in project execution, and in

long term sustainability. The organisation of the consultant’s team is shown in

Figure 6-4. The Team Leader has overall responsibility for the planning and

execution of the project, and achieving the desired outputs. The Team Leader is

also responsible for day to day project management. The Team Leader is based in

Pune, with an input of 67% of full time over the eighteen month project period.

The Team Leader is assisted by the Deputy Team Leader, who is also based long

term in Pune. The deputy is involved in all project matters, and will take over

project management while the Team Leader is absent from the project.

The other members of the project team comprise five Principal Experts: Data

Acquisition System, Snow and Glacial Melt, Water Resources RTDSS, Reservoir

Operations and Decision Support System. The latter expert will manage the DSS

Development.

Figure 6-4 Consultant's Organisation

The consultant’s staffing for each task is given in Table 6.1 with an overall Staff

Schedule shown in Figure 6-5.

Table 6.1 Consultant Staff Responsibilities for main Tasks

Main task / sub-tasks Main Responsibility Inputs

Task 1

Review Current Forecasting

and Operational Capabilities

Guna Paudyal D Pandit, Finn Hansen

Task 2: Knowledge Base Development

2.1 Functional specification of Finn Hansen Hemant Warad, A Klinting,


Inception Report 87


knowledge base J Larsen, D Pandit 2.2-2.4 Design & develop

knowledgebase and management

system

Finn Hansen, Hemant Warad , H Muller, J

Larsen, A Klinting, D

Pandit, K Patil, Pravanjan

Task 3: Real-Time Streamflow / Flood Forecasting Model 3.1 Develop simulation models 3.1 (a) Rainfall-runoff models

(NAM) Gregers Jorgensen Saso Petan, D Pandit, K

Patil 3.2 (b) River basin simulation

models (MIKEBASIN) Roar Jensen D Pandit, K Patil

3.1 (c) Hydrodynamic models

(MIKE11) Finn Hansen Prasanta Kadam, A

Prabhanjan 3.2 Identify critical river reaches

for real time monitoring Finn Hansen D Pandit

3.3 Integrate with forecast & real

time data (RTDAS) Finn Hansen Gregers Jorgensen

3.4 Data assimilation for

forecasts Finn Hansen Gregers Jorgensen

3.5 Flood Mapping Finn Hansen Prasanta Kadam,

A Prabhanjan

Task 4: Reservoir Operational Guidance System 4.1 Develop Optimisation

models C. Pedersen H. Muller

4.2 Establish operational

guidance system J Larsen H. Muller, A. Klinting

Task 5: Communication and Information Management Systems 5.1 Develop communication

strategy & Protocol for

information dissemination

Gregers Jorgensen Finn Hansen, H. Muller,

Guna Paudyal

5.2 Design and prepare

operational control room Hemant Warad Gregers Jorgensen

5.3 Develop web portal for

RTSF& ROS

Gregers Jorgensen Finn Hansen, Hemant

Warad

Task 6: Capacity Building and Training 6.1 On-the-job training (engaging

WRD staff in the development) Guna Paudyal All members of the Team

6.2 Preparation & conductions of

training programme Guna Paudyal All members of the Team

6.3 Facilitation of Workshops

organised by WRD Guna Paudyal All members of the Team

6.4 (a) Organisation of

international study tours for

senior WRD staff

Guna Paudyal DHI’s pool of experts

6.4 (5) Organisation of

international training cum

technical visit for Technical

staff

Guna Paudyal DHI’s pool of experts

6.5 System documentation and Guna Paudyal, Finn DHI’s pool of experts


88 Inception Report


manuals Hansen

6.6 Technical support, with

further training courses and

hotline support

Claus Skotner Hans Enggrob

6.7 Preparation of a strategy

for long term sustainability

and enhancement of the

developed system

Guna Paudyal Claus Skotner, Hans

Enggrob


Inception Report 89

Figure 6-5 Schedule of Consultant’s Personnel


90 Inception Report

6.3 Quality Assurance

6.3.1 Quality Management at DHI

All activities of DHI are conducted in accordance with internationally accepted

principles for quality management as described in the DS/EN ISO 9001 standard. The

corner stone of the quality system at DHI is the quality manual presenting the DHI

objectives, policies, history and organisation.

6.3.2 Quality Assurance Plan

A Quality Assurance Plan (QAP) has been prepared for the Krishna-Bhima

RTSF&ROS project. The QAP describing the procedures to be applied by all

team members in order to ensure the quality of the services to be rendered, and to

define the responsibility and authority of

all key personnel within the organisation.

The responsibility for the implementation

of the QAP is with the Team Leader.

Quality assurance is the responsibility of

all team members, who will be familiar

with the plan and comply with the

procedures. Quality control and

adherence to the quality procedures are

being reviewed periodically by the Home

Office Backup and Quality Control

Officer and findings and

recommendations are reported to the

Team Leader.

Claus Skotner of DHI Head Office,

Horsholm, Denmark has been appointed

as the Quality Control Officer. Hans

Enggrob, Technical Director of DHI (India) has the overall responsibility of

project management. All major deliverables and reports are approved by the

Technical Director prior to submission to the client.


Inception Report 91

6.4 Requirements from WRD

6.4.1 Data Collection and Processing

(6) Obtain hydro-meteorological, hydrometric, topographic, reservoir,

structures, irrigation, satellite and GIS data from internal and external

organisations, as requested by the consultants.

(7) Implement the river cross section survey programme on time so that the

cross sections are available for the development of hydrodynamic models

and flood forecasting system. Ensure that the cross section data are

provided in digital form for direct import to the MIKE11 database.

(8) Discussion and development of a mechanism with NCMRWF regarding

the application of meteorological forecasting models.

6.4.2 RTDAS

The contract for installing RTDAS has been signed in October 2011 with an aim of

completing the whole system including establishment of a data Centre at WRD

Pune within a period of 18 months. However, considering the requirements of the

RTSF&ROS project, the RTDAS contractors have agreed and assured that real time

data from most of the key stations will start flowing to the data centre from early

June 2012. WRD will have to pay special attention to ensure the execution of this

project is handled efficiently by all concerned, and complete the installation within

the stipulated time so that validated hydro-meteorological data are made available

at the data centre in real time from early June 2012. Any delay will curtail the

period allowed for development and installation of the RTSF&ROS in time.

6.4.3 Coordination with other stakeholders

Coordination with other stakeholders such as reservoir operators, irrigation, flood

control cell, district administration, CWC, IMD, NCRWMF, NWA etc. is required

for exchange of information as well implementation of the real time forecasting

system and reservoir operation guidance system.

6.4.4 Dissemination of River Flow and Flood Forecasts

Among the outputs of the RTSF&RSO will be forecasts of inflows to the reservoirs

and water level forecasts along the river courses. These forecasts will be

disseminated in real time (on the world wide web). Many agencies may access

these forecasts for their own operations. BSD with the activities of the operational

control room should ensure that the forecasts are provided efficiently and

accurately to a wide audience.

6.4.5 Establish Operational Control Room and RT Data Centre

The establishment of the Operational Control Room together with the real time

Data Centre under the RTDAS project is of prime importance for the successful

implementation of the project. WRD has allocated a space of 1,000 sft in the second

floor of Sinchan Bhavan. The physical infrastructure of the room should be

completed in time including the provision of uninterrupted power supply,


92 Inception Report

broadband Internet connection, LAN connecting BSD and other important offices

and the RTDAS Data Centre.

6.4.6 Workshops and Training

WRD is requested to organise the proposed workshops as planned with support

from the consultant. The related staff should also be allowed to undertake training

courses as proposed by the consultant. International study tours for senior officers

and technical training and study visits for technical officers should be implemented

as proposed.

6.4.7 Engagement of BSD staff with the Consultant

As part of on-the-job training, it is of paramount importance that BSD officers are

fully engaged with the experts of the Consultant’s team during the development of

various models and forecasting systems.

6.5 Project Monitoring

Monthly Progress Reports are submitted by the consultants. These are reviewed by

WRD/BSD. Other reports where project monitoring is also done are Inception

report, interim report and the final report. A Review Committee has been

constituted by WRD to monitoring progress, discuss the execution of project

activities, discuss possible deviations to the programme, identify problems and

obstacles to progress, and to implement solutions to remove the obstacles and

problems.

Regular meetings are held between the consultants and BSD to monitor the

progress of activities. These meetings are conducted as and when required in order

to accomplish the project outputs smoothly.


Inception Report 93

7 REFERENCES

/1/ Contract, RTDSS: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/2011, INDIA: HYDROLOGY

PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for

implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,

2011.

/2/ Technical Offer, Loan No: 4749-IN, RFP No. : HP II/MAHA (SW)/2,

Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow

Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima

River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.

/3/ Request for Proposal, RFP: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/, INDIA: HYDROLOGY

PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for

implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,

2011.

/4/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-1, RTSF&

ROS, September 2011.

/5/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-2, RTSF&

ROS, October 2011.

/6/ Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources Department, Report on

precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency situation in the

State by Technical Committee. May 2007.

/7/ Bidding documents for Procurement of Goods and Related Services for

Supply, Installation, Testing, Commissioning and Maintenance of Real

Time Data Acquisition System for the Krishna and Bhima River Basins in

Maharashtra, ICB No: HP II / MAHA (SW) / 1, India: Hydrology Project

Phase-II, (Loan: 4749-IN), Chief Engineer, Hydrology Project, Government

of Maharashtra, 2011.

/8/ National Institute of Hydrology / DHI. Development of Decision Support

System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,

Inception Report, DSS (Planning) Project, Hydrology Project-II, 2009.

/9/ Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra. Documents of

various Reservoirs.

/10/ National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Development of Decision Support

System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,

Interim Report, DHI, June 2011.


94 Inception Report

/11/ Bhakra Beas Management Board, Real Time Decision Support System for

Operational Management of BBMB Reservoirs. DSS Software

Development Specifications. DHI. October 2009.

/12/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual

Chapter 2, Identification of causes of failures in Dams and their appurtenant

structure, 1995.


Chapter 7, Flood forecasting, reservoir operation and Gate Operation,1984.


Chapter 8, Preparedness for Dealing with emergency situations on dams,

1984.

/15/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dams in Maharashtra,

2000.

/16/ Maharashtra Water and Irrigation Commission Report, 1999.

/17/ Raghunath, H.M. Hydrology: Principles, Analysis, Design. New Age

Publishers, 2006.

/18/ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Guide to Meteorological

Instruments & Methodology of Observations (6th

edition) WMO-No. 8,

1996.

/19/ Website: www.imd.gov.in

/20/ Website: www.punefloodcontrol.com

/21/ Website: [email protected]

/22/ Website: www.ncmrwf.gov.in

/23/ Website: www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

/24/ Website: www.nrsc.gov.in

/25/ Website: www.mahawrd.org

/26/ Website: www.idrn.gov.in

/27/ Website: www.ndma.gov.in

/28/ Website: www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in

/29/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

/30/ Website: www.cgwb.gov.in

/31/ Website: www.mahahp.org

/32/ Website: www.isro.gov.in

/33/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

http://www.imd.gov.in/


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

http://www.nrsc.gov.in/

http://www.mahawrd.org/

http://www.idrn.gov.in/

http://www.ndma.gov.in/


http://www.cgwb.gov.in/

http://www.mahahp.org/

http://www.isro.gov.in/

http://www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/


Inception Report 95

APPENDIX A.1: REVIEW OF PAST FLOODS 2005 floods

Due to heavy of rains in the catchment of Krishna, Warna and, Panchganga rivers

between July 23 to August 07, 2005, the Sangli and Kolhapur districts were flooded

extensively. Mahabaleswar from where Krishna and Koyna rivers originate, 460

mm rainfall was received within 24 hours on 2nd August, 2005. Total rainfall of

3260 mm (half of the total average annual rainfall) was recorded between in 16

days starting from last week of July to first week of August. Similarly due to

extreme rainfall in the catchments of Koyna, Warna, Dhom, Radhanagari and other

dams in the region, the reservoirs were almost full and water was required to be

released through spillway gates to downstream in Sangli and Kolhapur districts.

Sangli city is worst affected due to flooding.

2006 floods

The area which were worst affected during these floods were again Sangli and

Kolhapur District in Krishna basin and Pandharpur city on river Bhima sub-basin

Most of the Sangli city adjoining to river Krishna was under water for more than 15

days. Water remained in and around the city for a longer duration than the floods

that have occurred previous years. This was due to heavy rainfall continuously

occurring over the entire basin for a period of nearly three weeks. The floods in the

major rivers and streams occurred simultaneously increased the magnitude of the

flood. The river Krishna and all its tributaries like Warna, Panchganga, Koyna were

flowing with peak flows, causing the inundation of the low lying areas during

period 25 June to 15 July, 2006. The Revyachiwadi rain station in Kolhapur district

recorded 458 mm of rainfall on 5th July, 2006, whereas a total of 1,174 mm rainfall

was recorded during last week of June and second week of August.

Many areas in Pune city were flooded, notable ones recorded were around the

Aundh bridge, Pashan ( photograhs).


96 Inception Report


Inception Report 97

APPENDIX A.2: TYPICAL FLOOD INFORMATION FORM THE

FLOOD CONTROL CELL, WRD PUNE

GOVERNMENT OF MAHARASHTRA, WATER RESOURCES DEPARTMENT

CHIEF ENGINEER, WATER RESOURCES, PUNE,

PUNE IRRIGATION CIRCLE, PUNE KHADAKWASLA IRRIGATION DIVISION, PUNE

REPORT OF BHIMA BASIN

PHONE NO- 020-26127309, 020-26127062

Thursday 02 Sept 2011 Time 8.00 A.M.

Executive Director Shri D. R. Kandi, Executive Director, MKVDC, Pune Ph 9371235627

Nodal officer of Bhima Basin Shri S.M. Upase, Chief Engineer, Water Resources, Pune Ph 9767527069

Nodal officer for Krishna Basin

Shri C. A. Birajdar, Chief Engineer (SP), Water Resources, Pune Ph 9370324412

Nodal officer for Pune District

Shri A.V. Surve, Superintending Engineer, Pune Irrigation Circle, Pune Ph 9822317100

Nodal officer for Solapur District

Shri B. M. Sonwalkar, Superintending Engineer and Administrator, CADA, Solapur Ph 9422461508

Nodal officer for flood control cell

Shri S. N. Bolbhat, Executive Engineer, Khadakwasla Irrigation Division, Pune Ph 9371235625

The Website of the Pune Flood Control Cell (www.punefloodcontrol.com )provides the below information. However, some anamolies in the tables and data are noted, which needs to be checked and corrected by the flood cell.



98 Inception Report

Screen dumps form www.punefloodcontrol.com (31 October 2011)



Inception Report 99


100 Inception Report


Inception Report 101



APPENDIX A.3: KOYANA RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM

The reservoir operations of Koyna and Warna dams have been considered very

critical with the background of the severe floods of year 2005 and 2006 in Krishna

River and its tributaries inundating downstream town, cities and agricultural lands.

Reservoir operation schedule for Koyna Reservoir was studied by the Technical

committee with four methods of working out dependable yields as given above.

The required data is available with the Koyna Project authorities since year 1961.

Dependable Yields

Based on the procedure for preparation of guide curves as per Dam Safety Manual

Chapter: 7, the dependable yields for the various period ‘intervals’ were found to be

on lower side, resulting into higher guide curve levels since beginning of monsoon

with limited scope for flood moderation. The procedure appears to have been

prescribed considering mainly the priority to conservation storage. Flood

moderation concept is given lower priority. The working of proper dependable

yields/ inflows for the various period intervals plays very crucial role in preparation

of reservoir operation schedule.

The concept of dependable yield is considering the inflows in a whole year i.e.

dependable year. The planning of project is done with this concept. The yield series

have to be prepared for various monsoon period intervals considering the

cumulative yields from beginning of monsoon or by working backwards from the

end of monsoon. This method considers the overall pattern of rainfall by making

integration of bad, normal and good periods. Attempt has been made to compare

the guide curves worked out by various methodologies for working out the

dependable yields for the various period intervals. The dependable yields for the

various periods are worked out by following four methods.

1) Each period interval as a dependable period

2) Cumulative yields from beginning of monsoon

3) Average pattern of distribution of monsoon inflows

4) Cumulative yields by working backwards from the end of monsoon.

Aspects and Steps in preparation of Koyna ROS

In addition to Hydropower generation, Koyna dam is planned for irrigation at 90%

dependability as a conservation storage. This project is a lifeline of the State. The

90% dependable monsoon yield is calculated as 2505.57 Mm3 as against the

planning of 2764.75 Mm3 utilization excluding 77.48mm

3 post monsoon inflow

assumed in project planning. The technical Team found that the present

dependability was 83% considering inflow data of 1961-2004. There is a provision

of 319.98 mm3 carry over storage to meet the shortages during very lean years. The

following aspects were considered in preparation of ROS for Koyna Reservoir.

(a) Inflow data of year 1961 to 2004 period is considered for study

(b) Average of last ten years (1995 to 2004) actual westward diversions are taken as

withdrawals for monsoon period



(c) Upper and lower guide curves are based on 100% and 90% dependability

respectively in view of reservoir planning at 90% dependability and the project is a

lifeline of the State. (The project authorities have prepared upper guide curve at

90% dependable yield).

(d) Fortnightly period intervals are considered for preparation of guide curves

(e) Dependable yields for various fortnightly periods are worked out by four

methods (a, b, c, d) as described above.

(f) Date of attainment of FRL is decided by working backwards from the end of

monsoon or last fortnightly period and arriving at the period which has a surplus

inflow at 100% dependability.

(g) Guide curves are prepared based on full reservoir level at 657.91 m (i.e. without

steel flaps)

(h) Guide curves are worked out for monsoon period (1st June to 31st October)

Methodology for dependable monsoon yields

The monsoon yields at 100% dependability with different methodologies work out

as below:

638.47mm3 - Each fortnightly period as a dependable period (Method 1)

2347.50mm3 -

Dependable year concept (Method 2, 3 & 4 )

Method 1

Monsoon yield at 100% dependability considering each period interval as a

dependable period (method: a) works out to be on lower side. This results the guide

curve levels near to full reservoir level since beginning of monsoon with limited

scope for flood absorption /moderation. This method will also give different

monsoon dependable yield figures for the different period intervals i.e. weekly and

ten daily periods. Thus the yield series will have to be prepared considering the

monsoon yield as a whole.

Other three methods (2, 3, 4) listed above consider aggregate monsoon yield with

different approaches for distribution of inflows into various period intervals.

Method 2

The method of cumulative yields from 1st June (method: b) to period interval

considers the overall pattern of rainfall since beginning of the monsoon by making

integration of normal, good and bad periods. This method is more appropriate when

sufficient hydrological data for several past years is available and achieves the

planned storage while availing of the flood absorption capacity to the greater

possible extent.

However, there is a remote possibility that the reservoir may not be attaining FRL

though sufficient inflow is available because of intermittent releases for

maintaining upper limit during initial filling period and less yield towards later part.

This method may be useful for the reservoirs getting assured rainfall in the

catchments during the end period of monsoon and located in highly flood prone

area.

Method 3



This method of average pattern of distribution of monsoon inflows may be useful

wherever hydrological data is insufficient and available for lesser period. In this

method, dependable monsoon yield is distributed within the various period intervals

bymeans of statistical average or knowledge and past experience if period interval

data (weekly/ten daily/fortnightly period) is not available.

Method 4

The method of cumulative yields by working backwards from 31st October to

period interval is similar to the method of working cumulative yields from 1st June

(Method 2) with reverse/backward calculations from the end of monsoon. This

method is more conservative and avails slightly lesser flood absorption capacity

than the method of working cumulative yields from 1st June. There is an every

possibility that the reservoir may attain FRL when inflows are sufficient. This

method may be more appropriate for the reservoirs where the monsoon recedes

early and the conservation has top priority.

Thus it is recommended that the dependable yields for the various period intervals

is required to be worked out with any one logical methodology out of three

methods (Method 2, 3, 4) which will represent the true picture of inflows for the

dependable year concept, rainfall pattern and the purpose of reservoir planning. The

comparison of upper guide curves during monsoon period developed with four

methodologies is shown below:

Guide curves for Koyna Reservoir

Koyna reservoir is planned for mainly hydropower generation as conservation

storage. This dam is a lifeline of the state. The catchment area is of fern shape with

submergence spread all along the river parallel to the continental divide of Sahyadri

hill range. The rainfall is very heavy and erratic resulting into flashy floods. The

rainfall in the catchment is almost entirely due to the south – west monsoon. The

past hydrological data indicates that the runoff from the catchment is very heavy

during the period from 16th June to 15th September and thereafter falls rapidly. The

contribution of runoff in the monsoon yield after 15th September is very little with

quite a variation. Therefore, the guide curves during monsoon period based on the

cumulative yields by working backwards from the end of monsoon i.e. 31st October

(Method 4) to period interval under consideration are recommended along with the

condition that the operation of advance flood forecasting system in place having



telemetry network and adopting advance flood release operation for creating space

for flood absorption. Otherwise, the consequent heavy flood events downstream of

Koyna Dam cannot be ruled out. Guide curves for Koyna Reservoir during

Monsoon period are summarized with the assumptions/aspects given above.



APPENDIX A.4: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RESERVOIR OPERATION

The traditional method followed commonly for meeting the needs of water during

the scarce period is construction of storage reservoir on river course. The excess

water during the monsoon season is stored in such reservoir for eventual use in

lean period. Construction of storages also helps in control of flood, as well as

generation of electric power. To meet the objective set forth in planning a

reservoir or a group of reservoirs and to achieve maximum benefits out of the

storage created, it is imperative to evolve guidelines for operation of reservoirs.

Control of flood is better achieved if the reservoir level is kept low in the early

stages of the monsoon season. However, at a later stage, if the anticipated inflows

do not result, the reservoir may not get filled up adequately for meeting the

various water demands. On the other hand, if the reservoir is filled up to Full

reservoir level (FRL) in the early stages of monsoon, to avoid the risk of reservoir

remaining unfilled at later stage, there may be problem of accommodating high

floods occurring at later stage. In some cases while planning reservoirs, social and

other considerations occasionally result in adoption of a plan that may not be

economically the best. Considering all these issues it is necessary to look in to the

subject of reservoir operation in general though local situations are different at

different sites.

In the Bhima and Krishna basins, the flood forecasting and reservoir operations

are based on the guidelines given in Dam Safety Manual Chapter 7 : Flood

Forecasting, Reservoir Operation and Gate Operation, 1984, Irrigation

Department, Government of Maharashtra. This manual had been prepared mainly

based on the circulars issued by the GoM, the literature published by the Central

Water Commission, New Delhi and the Central Board of Irrigation and Power,

New Delhi and provisions in IS: 7323-1974.

This manual provides an elaborate and valuable guidelines on reservoir operation.

General Principles of Reservoir Operation

All dams in Maharashtra State are planned for the conservation purposes for

utilization of the stored water for irrigation, industrial use, water supply and /or

power generation. Provision of specific flood absorption storage is not considered

in any of the reservoirs till now. They are not planned as flood control reservoirs.

This concept might have been accepted because of the comparatively smaller

flood prone areas with rare acute flood events in the state. It seems that additional

expenditure involved for creation of flood absorption storage was also avoided.

Dams though planned for conservation purposes must serve the purpose of

building up the conservation storage without involving any risk of man-made

floods to downstream areas. A dam can moderate floods through careful reservoir

operation aided by a reliable flood forecasting system. Reservoir operation has to

be regulated in such a way that all the floods impinging upon the reservoir can be

safely routed without involving any risk to the structure itself or any damage to

the property downstream. Both these requirements will have to be given equal

weightage in reservoir operation. Looking to the very heavy floods and

consequent losses thereof, the Maharashtra State Water Policy (July, 2003)

mentions (para 8.0 - Flood Control and Management) that “in highly flood prone



areas, flood control shall be given an overriding consideration in reservoir

regulation policy even at the cost of sacrificing some irrigation or power

benefits.”

Normally, it is desirable to fill the reservoir at the end of monsoon but not before

from the flood safety point of view. During the filling period, the lake level is not

brought near full reservoir level too early if the historical data shows that even by

prescribing limiting lake filling levels, the lake can be filled up.

General Principles of Operation of Multipurpose Reservoirs

For the purpose of regulation, reservoirs are classified as single purpose,

multipurpose and system of reservoirs. Most of the reservoirs in Maharashtra are

classified as multipurpose reservoirs. The multipurpose reservoirs are developed

to serve more than one purpose (IS 7323:1994), which may be a combination of

any of the conservation uses such as irrigation, power generation, industrial use,

municipal water supply etc. with or without flood control. The general principles

of operation of multipurpose reservoirs with joint use of storage space are

described in 4.1.2.2. (b) and 4.1.2.3 of IS 7323:1994: These principles are

reproduced below.

4.1.2.2 (b) Joint use of storage space—In a multipurpose reservoir where joint

uses of some of the storage space or storage water has been envisaged, operation

becomes complicated due to competing and conflicting demands. While flood

control requires low reservoir level, conservation interests require as high a level

as is attainable. Thus the objectives of these functions are not compatible and a

compromise will have to be effected in flood control operations by sacrificing the

requirements of these functions. In some cases parts of the conservational storage

space is utilized for flood moderation, during the earlier stages of the monsoon.

This space has to be filled up for conservation purposes towards the end of

monsoon progressively, as it might not be possible to fill up this space during the

post-monsoon periods, when the flows are insufficient even to meet the current

requirements. This will naturally involve some sacrifice of the flood control

interests towards the end of the monsoon.

4.1.2.3 The concept of joint use of storage space, with operational criteria to

maximize the complementary effects and to minimize the competitive effects

requires careful design. Such concepts, if designed properly, are easier to manage

and will provide better service for all requirements. With the advancement of

system analysis techniques, it is easy now to carefully design the joint use in a

multipurpose reservoir.

This concept of joint use of storage needs to be kept in mind during reservoir

operations.

Types of Reservoir Operation Schedules

The reservoir operation schedules determine in advance the most effective

operations for use of reservoir storage. Schedule may vary from rigid (fixed

rules), semi rigid and long range plans. The most rigid schedules are those built

into the physical structures of single purpose, un-gated reservoirs. Rigid schedules



may serve as guides for use by operating personnel at gated structures, in case

during extreme floods if communication with the hydrologic network is lost.

Results of their use in regulating floods of record and maximum probable floods

are known from previous study. Such regulations are usually based on

combination of lake level, stage at downstream control point and reservoir inflow

or rate of change in reservoir elevation.

In case of semi-rigid schedules, the day-to-day operation of gated reservoirs and

reservoir systems is based on current forecasts of stream flow with such

adjustments as may be prudent based on the current precipitation outlook. They

involve day-to-day decisions based on judgment but supported by the knowledge

gained from studies of past floods. The weather outlook may be definite enough

so that the entire hydrograph of the flood can be forecast with assurance in

advance.

Long range planning schedules apply principally to the use of water for

conservation purposes and to reservoirs and systems where storage is large

compared with annual stream flow. Long range planning and scheduling involve a

distribution of the storage and use of water against the long term pattern of stream

flow. This is mostly used for depletion period.

The reservoirs in Maharashtra are operated with rigid schedules. The changeover

is necessary from rigid schedules to semi-rigid with the advent of flood

forecasting techniques together with weather and climate forecast.

In case of un-gated reservoirs (Rigid Schedule), the aspect of flood moderation is

also more or less inbuilt. Only factor that needs to be carefully decided is the

design flood, the adequacy of waste weir and flood lift. The lake level rises

temporarily above FRL but below MWL when flood impinges the reservoir. In

case of gated reservoirs, a part of the conservation storage space forms a part of

the flood control storage space. Semi-rigid or flexible ROS has to be evolved

keeping both the requirements in view.

Conceptual Guide Curves and Reservoir Operations during heavy floods

Reservoir has to be full at the end of monsoon, while handling the flood situation.

This is achieved by preparing guide curves and gate operation schedules together

with efficient flood forecasting system. The guidelines for preparation of guide

curves (Rule curves or regulation schedules) are given in Dam Safety Manual

Chapter: 7. Guide curves show the limits to which the reservoir levels should be

normally raised at the end of specified periods for achieving the planned storage

while availing of the flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent. During

the period of probable severe floods, as forecasted the lake level is required to be

depleted temporarily up to lower guide curve in anticipation and then raised

temporarily above FRL but below MWL when flood impinges the reservoir. The

maximum level to be attained depends upon the current inflow, storage space

available, time period of the year and downstream constraints. An illustration of

conceptual guide curves and reservoir operations during heavy floods are shown

in following figure.



The storage space between the lower guide curve and MWL indicates maximum

flood storage space on the various dates.

The study of some critical reservoirs indicates that the reservoir levels were raised

during critical flood events of 2005 and 2006 in between upper guide curve and

FRL. The lake levels were not either lowered temporarily below upper guide

curve (but not below lower guide curve) in advance or went above FRL but below

MWL during heavy inflows. This procedure of reservoir operation is not yet

accepted at field level due to lack of reliable and efficient flood forecasting

system.

Field officers are more cautious about the structural safety of dam and

conservation storage. Most of the reservoirs were operated between upper guide

curve and FRL with very marginal rise above FRL for small period. Under natural

flood conditions, the water is stored temporarily as the stage rises, often referred

to as valley storage reducing the peak inflow. Under reservoir conditions, the

space previously available for natural valley storage may already be filled and

because of the increased depth, the arrival of upstream inflow to the dam is

accelerated. If the reservoir is at the level of full when flood occurs and no rise in

water level can be made, resulting outflows will exceed those, which would have

occurred under natural conditions. A negative lood control benefit might result.

To counteract this loss of valley storage, the provision should be ade to permit a

rise in water elevation during floods. This may be done by reserving flood storage

below FRL or by permitting storage above FRL. This is explained in 5.5:

Spillway Gate Regulation Schedules of IS 7323: 1994.

Emergency Flood Moderation Schedule

Guide curve is the target level planned to be achieved in a reservoir under

different probabilities of inflows and / or withdrawals during various periods. It

means that the reservoir level is to be maintained as per upper guide curve during

normal inflows. During the heavy floods, the normal reservoir operation schedule

should be switched over to the emergency flood moderation schedule. The



criterion for switching over is the occurrence of heavy to very heavy rainfall in the

catchments of the dam or the intimations of heavy to very heavy flows into the

reservoir. This switching over process should be well studied and implemented in

sub basin/basin existing in the state. During the emergency reservoir operation,

the reservoir levels are allowed to rise temporarily above upper guide curve but

below MWL for making flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent.

Preparation of Guide Curves

Guide curves (Rule curves or regulation schedules) are prepared separately for

filling period and for depletion period. Technical committee is constituted to

provide guidance for precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency

situation in the state during the flood. The technical committee has studied the

reservoir operations during the monsoon period i.e. for filling period. Guide

curves are made up of the upper guide curve (A-curve) and the lower guide curve

(B-curve) for filling period. There may be only one guide curve for depletion after

attainment of FRL considering various water demands during the various periods

of a year

As per guidelines of Dam safety Manual Chapter:7, the guide curve for 90%

dependable storage levels and 75% dependable storage levels are designated as

upper and lower guide curve respectively. This is appropriate for reservoirs

planned for irrigation use at 75% dependable yields. The reservoirs are also

planned for the purpose of utilization of the stored water for hydropower

generation, water supply and industrial use on higher dependability as per

Government policy. Upper and lower guide curves for such reservoirs are required

to be developed for 100% and 90% dependable storage levels respectively in view

of the more reliability requirement.

Guide curve for higher dependable storage levels (100%) and lower dependable

storage levels (90%) can be designated as upper and lower guide curve

respectively. Upper guide curve levels shall always be at higher levels than the

lower guide curve levels. Because of large variations in inflow data for various

period intervals (weekly/ten daily/fortnightly), the guide curve for higher

dependable storage levels may give lower elevations than guide curve for lower

dependable storage levels during some part of the filling period. So the curve

passing through upper elevation points shall be considered as upper guide curve

during filling period and vice versa.

Guide curves for the filling period are generally developed from the study of the

past runoff data over a long period, complied into ten daily period intervals from

1st June to 31st October. Sometimes the period interval is taken as weekly or

fortnightly instead of ten daily period. In Maharashtra State, the rainfall is

unevenly distributed both in space and time even during the monsoon season.

Rainfall patterns are unpredictable and vary from year to year and period to

period. Development of guide curves with lesser period intervals may give large

variations in inflow figures for different period intervals thereby giving staggered

curve. So the comparatively longer period interval, say fortnightly period interval

is more appropriate and practicable to arrive at the guide curve elevations than

lesser period. In any case, the period interval shall not be less than fortnightly



period. The ROS should also indicate at least four to five elevation points between

spillway crest and FRL.

Reservoir operation schedules of some of the dams reveal that the date of

attainment of FRL is taken as the end of monsoon even though the inflow yields

during the end period intervals are less than withdrawals for various uses.

Actually, the date of attainment of FRL will have to be decided by working

backwards from the end of monsoon or the last period interval and arriving at the

period which is having a surplus inflow at 90% dependability for irrigation

reservoirs and at 100% dependability for reservoirs planned for hydropower

generation, water supply and industrial use. FRL may have to be adopted at the

end of respective surplus period.

Reservoir level reaches generally at MDDL at the beginning of monsoon for

storages having no carry over. Reservoir attains FRL at the end of monsoon,

generally in middle of Sept/ October based on inflow pattern. Guide curve levels

for the various period intervals for filling period are worked out from the date of

attainment of FRL to beginning of monsoon (MDDL) by working backwards.

There is no control over rising of lake level during monsoon below spillway crest

level except marginal withdrawals for power and irrigation uses through outlet as

a low level control. Guide curves below spillway crest level are redundant. So

they may start from the spillway crest level. However, the filling procedure below

spillway crest is required to be specified in ROS to avail early power and

irrigation benefits during the period of good rains.

The procedure for preparation of guide curves is described in para 8.0 of Dam

Safety Manual Chapter: 7. It has been prescribed that the runoff series for each

period interval is to be prepared from the available runoff data at the dam site for

several past years compiled into the period interval from 1st June to 31st October

and 90% dependable and 75% dependable yields for the various periods may be

worked out. It means the dependable yields are to be worked out for the various

periods considering each period interval in isolation i.e. weekly/ ten daily/

fortnightly period as a dependable period. This may not be logical because the

aggregate monsoon dependable yield worked out by summation of all the period

interval yields will not match with the yield of dependable year. This method

considers all the bad (dry) periods. Monsoon dependable yield worked out by this

procedure will be too less. This results the guide curve levels/reservoir levels are

required to be kept near to full reservoir level too early since beginning of

monsoon with limited scope for flood absorption/moderation. Thus the accurate

flood moderation concept does not found justice in this procedure.

Intermittent Reservoir Operations during the period interval

Guide curves or schedules give the levels required to be maintained at the

beginning and at the end of the period interval. The intermittent lake levels to be

maintained day-to-day within the specified period intervals are generally

interpolated by straight line relation. However, the reservoir inflows cannot follow

the rule of simple interpolation. The intermittent lake levels to be maintained will

depend on the actual inflows. For example, if the probable fortnightly inflow is

received on the first day of fortnightly period, the lake level will have to be

allowed to rise as per the guide curve level indicated at the end of the fortnightly



period. So it is necessary to consider the period interval together as a unit. The

intermittent reservoir operations during the period interval shall be semi-rigid

depending upon the inflows.

Review and Updating of ROS

Reservoir Operation Schedule is prepared from the study of the past run off data

over a long period. During the initial periods of the dam, the schedules are

prepared in a preliminary form because of inadequate hydrological data. Later

refinements are done based on observed hydrological data and actual operating

experience. Reservoir operation schedule of the critical dams like Koyna (1987),

Ujjani (2006), Paithan (2006) and Yeldari (2006) were revised and approved.

Periodical review and updating of ROS must be based on hydrological data and

withdrawals so as to have the best operation of the reservoirs. It is generally

updated once in five years or even less than five years period. The committee

recommends that ROS should be revised at least once in five years or even less

depending on variations observed in stream flows. The concerned Chief Engineer

is the competent and responsible authority for approval and updating of ROS.

Revision of Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7

The Dam Safety Manual Chapter: 7 had published 23 years back. Indian Standard

(IS 7323) on ‘Operation of Reservoirs: Guidelines’ has been also revised in 1994.

The concept of operation of reservoir considering it as a single entity has given

way to the concept of integrated operation of reservoirs. Application of system

engineering methods such as mathematical optimization and simulation are

advocated in the revised IS 7323:1994.

ROS for Dams having flaps

In some of the dams, the additional storage has been created recently by way of

raising the FRL by joining steel flaps to the radial gates. Koyna Dam is provided

with 1.5 m high flaps. Similarly the Ujjani Dam is also provided with 0.6 m high

flaps. The concept in providing the flaps is to impound additional storage above

original FRL during the receding monsoon period when maximum flood events

already passed. The maximum flood level is not supposed to increase even with

the provision of flaps and impounding water above original FRL. The salient

features of Koyna Dam and Ujjani Dam show that the MWL is also increased in

that proportion with same dam top. The reservoir operations of both these dams

are critical considering the downstream highly flood prone areas. It is possible to

increase the flood absorption capacity with help of the reservoir operation based

on the original full reservoir level and revised MWL. The reservoir level is to be

built up with this ROS during the period of heavy runoff. The storage above

original FRL may be impounded after major flood is passed as indicated by flood

records. The additional storage is possible in the normal year because the ROS is

prepared for achieving full reservoir filling with the probability of bad year. The

provision of additional flood absorption capacity will reduce the outflow from

spillway. The appropriate procedure for impounding additional storage above

original FRL is to be decided by the project authorities and specified in the



reservoir operation schedule. Similar concept is applicable for the other dam

provided with flaps and located in the highly flood prone areas.



APPENDIX B: INCEPTION WORKSHOP

The Inception Workshop was organised by WRD on December 7, 2011 at YASDA Centre,

Pune. The Inception Workshop is an important milestone of the three-month Inception

Phase which was aimed at engaging WRD and stakeholders, and to learn and appreciate

first hand the needs of the project. The Proceedings of the Workshop are prepared in a

separate volume.

Objectives

The objectives of the Inception Workshop were:

To provide a forum of further consultation with stakeholders on the needs of an

improved water resources management system with a real time streamflow

forecasting and reservoir operation in the Krishna and Bhima river basins

To obtain comments on the Draft Inception Report

To obtain feedback on the approach and methodology

To stimulate discussion on capacity building and institutional strengthening

Outputs

The outputs of the Workshop are recommendations to WRD as well as to the Consultant

on various aspects of the projects, particularly on capacity building, considerations of the

real time network, forecasting and reservoir operations. The expressed needs, comments

and feedback from stakeholders and participants in the Workshop have been incorporated

in the final inception report.

Programme

The Workshop was been conducted as an interactive forum in order to achieve its

objectives. The Workshop was divided into four sessions: Opening session, Technical

presentation, thematic group discussion, and a plenary session followed by closing the

workshop.

Participants

The Workshop was well attended by many senior WRD officials and other stakeholders.

Below is the list of participants (64 participants).

List of Participants

Sl No Name Designation & Organisation

1 Hiralal T. Mendhegiri Chief Engineer (WR) & Joint Secretary, WRD, Mantralaya, Mumbai

2 Milind Panpatil Executive Engineer, CWC, Pune

3 S.R. Tejale Sup. Engineer., H.P. Circle, Nashik

4 P.K. Pawar Executive Engineer, HMDPD, Nashik, H.P (SW), Nashik

5 D.A. Bagade Executive Engineer, BSD, Pune

6 M.M. Mahajan Assistant. Engineer-I, BSD, Pune

7 Dr. Sunil D. Gorantiwar Head, Dept. of Irrigation & Drainage Engg., MPKU, Rahuri

8 Sanjay S. Heganna Assistant. Engineer-II, HPD, Pune

9 Ishwar S Chandha Sup. Engineer., CDO, Nashik

10 Shivaji D. Rajale Executive Engineer, Nira deoghar Project




11 B.V. Sonawane HPD, Pune

12 C.S. Desai HPD, Pune

13 Mrs. S.V. Phadke Joint Director, CWPRS, Khadakwasla, Pune

14 S.S. Phadnis J.E., BSD, Pune

15 C.A. Birajdar Chief Engineer (SP), WRD, MKVDC, Pune

16 A.A. Kapole Executive Engineer, Chaskaman Div., Pune

17 S.N. Bolbhat Executive Engineer, KID, Pune

18 Ashok Karve Mechatronics Systems, Pune

19 H.M. Shinde Chief Engineer (C.S), Pune

20 V.R. Deshamukh E.O. SGSY

21 B.R. Wagh Executive Engineer, Bhama Askhed Dam Division., Pune

22 D.A. Pandhave Executive Engineer, S.I.D., Solapur

23 Padmakar Kelkar Mechatronics Pvt. Ltd., Pune

24 D.R. Kandi Executive Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation

25 V.L. Joshi Executive Engineer, HP Division., Aurangabad

26 D.M. Dubal Assistant Engineer Gr-I, Nira Irrigation Sub Division., Nira

27 S.A. Gangurde Assistant. Executive Engineer, NRBC Division., Phaltan

28 R.R. Gargate Assistant. Project Officer, DRDA, Solapur

29 K.H. Ansari SE, KIC, Kop

30 S.B. Ghadge EO (SGSY) D.S. Pandharpur

31 Tejaswini B. Kurwatti Research Student, IIT Bombay

32 Prashant Tatiys Director, S&E Enggs Pvt. Ltd., Pune

33 Suryawanshi A.S S.E., DCC, Nashik

34 Mulay. V.Y E.E., CADA, Pune

35 A.A. Kusanale S.D.E., H.P. Sub Division., Sangli

36 A.D. Nasalapure Sec. Engineer., H.P. Sub Division., Sangli

37 N.S. Kolekar Deputy Engineer, NRBC Division., Phaltan

38 A.R. Naik Executive Engineer, WD, CDO, Nashik

39 A.D. Gumaste H.P Sub Division, Pune

40 S.D. Pardeshi Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune

41 Deepgauri Joshi Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune

42 S.D. Meshram Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune

43 R.B. Mali Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune

44 Girish V. Nagarkar Assistant Engineer Gr-I, BSD, Pune

45 Yojana Patil Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune

46 Ashish S. Jadhav Assistant Engineer Gr-II, HPD, Pune

47 Sanjay Bhakta Assistant Engineer Gr-II, BSD, Pune

48 Narendra Shinde SE CDO (M.D), Nashik

49 Prakash Misal Executive Engineer, IPF (KB), Pune

50 T.N. Munde SE, KDC, Pune

51 Amar P. Bade Assistant Engineer - II, HP Division., Kalwa, Thane

52 S.M. Upase CE ID Pune

53 Ghanshyam Rathi Project Manager, Mechatronics Systems Pvt. Ltd., Pune

54 D.D. Bhide Director General, Design, Training, Hyd, Res& Safety, MERI




55 H.K. Gosavi Chief Engineer, Hydrology & Planning, WRD, Nashik

56 Akash Karwa Mechatronics Syatems Pvt. Ltd.

57 Smita Kasar Assistant Engineer - II, H.P. Sub Division., Pune

58 D.B. Sale Executive Engineer, W.P.D., Nashik

59 Guna Paudyal Team Leader, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

60 D Pandit Dy. Team Leader, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

61 Hans Enggrob Technical Director, DHI (India) Water & Environment, New Delhi

62 K Patil Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

63 P Alankar Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

64 P Kadam Modelling Expert, DHI, RTSF & ROS Project

Opening Session

The Opening session started with a welcome note from Ms. Deepgauri Joshi, Assistant

Engineer-I of Basin Simulation Division, who also acted as the Anchor of the Workshop.

The session was chaired by Mr. D.D. Bhide, Director General, Design, Training,

Hydrology, Research & Safety) MERI, with Mr. H.T. Mendhegiri , Chief Engineer (WR)

& Joint Secretary (Mantralaya, Mumbai), as the Chief Guest. Mr. D.R. Kandi, Executive

Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation was the guest of honour.

At the outset, a worship of Goddess Sharaswoti was performed and the Workshop was

inaugurated by the Chairman by lighting the traditional oil lamp.

Mr. Mendhegiri in his opening speech highlighted the need of real time forecasting of

floods in the Krishna and Bhima river basins. He briefly dealt with the Hydrology Project

and provided the backgrounds of the RTDAS and RTSF&ROS projects. He also discussed

the current Reservoir Operation System about its rigidness and lack of real time data.

knowledge lag and need for semi-rigid Reservoir Operation System. He emphasized to

switch from normal reservoir operation system to an emergency operation system during

extreme flood events based upon advanced forecasting. He mentioned that current flood

risk is being minimised by about 20-30% using Engineers’ experience.

The Chief Engineer, Mr. H.K. Gosavi gave a detailed presentation on Hydrology Project

and emphasized the need of real time data acquisition, streamflow forecasting, reservoir

operation and flood forecasting.

Guna Paudyal, Team Leader (DHI), RTSF & ROS project, presented the Draft Inception

Report.

Technical Session

Guna Paudyal, Team Leader (DHI), RTSF & ROS project, presented the technical

Approach and methodology to be adopted in the project. He presented some of the

modelling concepts to be adopted in the project, which included rainfall-runoff modelling,

river basin water resources modelling, hydrodynamic modelling, real time flood

forecasting and reservoir operation. The presentation was followed by discussion,

questions and answers. Interesting observations and comments were put forward by

participants.

The key observations and suggestions were:

Communication between the Basin Simulation Division and other

stakeholders should be enhanced for a meaningful utilisation of the system



A good quality control system should be implemented to get accurate data

from the river cross section surveys. Bench marks should be established at

regular intervals and should be checked for accuracy.

In order to complete the project in time, the river survey programme may be

implemented in a priority basis, selecting critical reaches in stages.

Special attention may be given to rainfall-runoff modelling of catchments in

which no rain gauges are available.

WRD’s capacity should be established not only to operate the models but also

to be able to upgrade and maintain the models being developed in the project.

Thematic Group Discussion

A participatory group discussion was organised in three thematic groups:

Group 1: Inflow forecasting and reservoir operation

Group 2: Flood forecasting, early warning and emergency management

Group 3: Institutional strengthening & capacity building

It was observed that the groups engaged themselves in lively discussion on all the subjects.

Each Group was convened by a senior WRD officer, who summarised the discussion

points and the group’s recommendations (Chief Engineer and Superintending Engineer

levels)

Plenary Session

Each Group Leader presented the outcome of their discussion and recommendations, as

summarised below:

Summary of Discussions and Recommendations

Group 1: Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation

1. Effect of reservoir storage and travel time should be considered in inflow

forecasting. For example, there is a 12-20 hours delay in flood travel along

the 100 km long Ujjani reservoir.

2. The rainfall occurring into the water bodies should be taken into account. For

example Ujjani reservoir covers and area of about 300 km2. Establishment of rain

gauges may be considered around the edges of the reservoirs.

3. It seems that emphasis is given to install AWS and rain gauges in the catchments of

main rivers only. Tributary catchments upstream of reservoirs should also have

enough rain gauges.

4. False reporting of data should be dealt with cross-checking.

5. The telemetry data collection system is very sensitive and may be out of order due

to various reasons including lack of maintenance. Similarly, the GSM based data

transmission system may fail frequently and be unstable system. Therefore, satellite

communication system should be used for major river stations.

The changing land use pattern and water conservation structures such as

percolation tanks and watershed treatment activities should be taken into account

into the rainfall-runoff models. Also, soil moisture conditions should be captured.



Group 2: Flood forecasting, early warning and emergency management

1. Data receiving frequency has to be properly selected. It is possible to receive real

time data every 15 minutes. Flood data and information be processed at three

hourly interval during emergencies and at 12 hourly interval during normal flood

situation.

2. In addition to modern IT based communication such as E-mail and Web, traditional

communication channels (telephone, fax, courier, message) may also be continued

because during flood emergencies modern systems may be out of order.

3. The flood forecast should be based on rainfall forecast in addition to now-cast data.

4. Based on the flood and early warning system, critical locations may be identified

and activities related to marking of blue line and red lines may be implemented.

5. Flood zone mapping should be carried out in continuation of the present RTSF &

ROS project.

6. Forecasting of floods from free catchments (without dams) should also be carried

out.

7. The early warning system should provide information useful for the revenue

departments.

8. There should be some mechanism to record feedback/acknowledgement from

Revenue Department as well as other departments on information provided by

WRD.

Group 3: Institutional strengthening & capacity building

6. WRD should emphasise in strengthening the hydro-met network by adding new

rain gauges under the Hydrology Projects. Mechanisms to enhance security of

various stations and equipment should be established.

7. In addition to the present strength of BSD, additional human resources as suggested

in the Inception report should be considered. Engagements of a meteorology expert

and an IT expert are recommended.

8. Under the capacity building programme, assistant engineers from other Chief

Engineers’ offices may be considered to ensure technology transfer and

sustainability.

9. In order to obtain maximum benefit of the project and to ensure that the developed

modelling systems are utilised optimally, there should be a good communication

between Chief Engineers and the Basin Simulation Division.

Closing Session

Mr. Kandi, Executive Director, Krishna Valley Development Corporation, in his closing

remarks said that the reservoirs should be managed for both flood control and water

resources conservation. He cited an example that WRD faces a dilemma between releasing

water to make space for 2005 like floods and keeping the reservoirs full for water

utilisation. He observed that rainfall variability is an important factor. He also noted that in

2011, the reservoirs are depleting fast because of water releases from October. He

suggested that the proposed river cross section survey programme should be carried out

fast and priority may be given to affected areas. Finally, Mr. Kandi emphasised on data

validation before any conclusion is derived from the models.



Mr. D.D. Bhide, (Director General, Design, Training, Hydrology, Research & Safety)

MERI) in his closing remarks said that the critical paths identified in the project

implementation should be considered seriously and actions taken to achieve the stipulated

outputs in time. He recognised that availability of the river cross section data in time is

important for testing the system to be developed during the next monsoons season. Mr.

Bhide suggested that a technical session may be organised to share the experience of the

consultants from other countries. Mr. Bhide mentioned the need to consider factors of

climate change and flash floods as well. Finally, he suggested that the flood forecasting

and early warning information should cater to the needs of revenue departments who are

responsible for disaster management.

The Workshop was closed with a vote of thanks from Mr. D. Bagade, Executive

Engineer, Basin Simulation Division.



APPENDIX C: LIST OF DAMS

Reservoirs with Purpose in Krishna Basin

Sr. No. Name of Dam Major/Medium

Dam Purpose

1 Dhom Major Irrigation, HP

2 Dhom Balkawadi Medium Irrigation

3 Mahu Medium Irrigation, HP

4 Kanher Major Irrigation, HP

5 Urmodi Major Irrigation, HP

6 Tarali Major Irrigation, HP

7 Koyna Major HP,

Irrigation(Partly)

8 Uttarmand Medium Irrigation, HP

9 Morna(Gureghar) Medium Irrigation

10 Warna Major Irrigation, HP

11 Wang Medium Irrigation, HP

12 Kadvi Medium Irrigation, HP

13 Kasari Medium Irrigation

14 Kumbhi Medium Irrigation, HP

15 Dhamni Medium Irrigation, HP

16 Radhanagari Major Irrigation, HP

17 Dudhganga Major Irrigation, HP

18 Tembhu Barrage Major Irrigation

19 Satpewadi Barrage

Major Irrigation

Reservoirs with Purpose in Bhima Basin

Sr. No. Name of Dam Major / Medium

Dam

Purpose

1 Chilewadi Medium Irrigation, HP

2 Pimpalgaon Joga

Major Irrigation, HP

3 Manikdoh Major Irrigation, HP

4 Yedgaon Major Irrigation

5 Wadaj Major Irrigation

6 Dimbe Major Irrigation, HP

7 Chaskaman Major Irrigation, HP

8 Kalmodi Medium irrigation



Sr. No. Name of Dam Major / Medium

Dam

Purpose

9 Bhama Askheda

Major HP

10 Andhra Medium HP

11 Wadiwale Medium HP

12 Pawana Major Water Supply, HP, Irrigation

13 Kasar Sai Medium Irrigation, HP

14 Mulshi Major HP, Irrigation

(Partly)

15 Temghar Major Irrigation, HP

16 Warasgaon Major Irrigation, HP

17 Panshet Major Irrigation, HP

18 Khadakwasala Major Irrigation,

Water Supply

19 Ghod Major Irrigation

20 Ujjani Major Irrigation, HP, Water Supply

21 Sina-Kolegaon

Major Irrigation

22 Sina (Nimgaon)

Medium Irrigation

23 Gunjawani Major Irrigation, HP

24 Bhatghar Major Irrigation, HP

25 Vir Major Irrigation, HP

26 Nira Deoghar Major Irrigation, HP

27 Nazare Medium Irrigation,

water supply



APPENDIX D: LIST OF MEETINGS AND CONSULTATIONS

Sr

No.

Date Agenda Participation

1 17.08.2011 Inauguration and Kick Off

Meeting, RTSF&ROS

Office, DHI Pune

Director General (DTHRS), Chief

Engineer (Planning & Hydrology)

Supt. Engineer (DAC ), Executive

Engineer (BSD)

Team Leader (RTSF&ROS), Dy.

Team Leader, Technical Director, DHI

(India)

2 18.08.2011 Preliminary discussions on

project milestones, data and

models, BSD, Sinchan

Bhawan

Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD

Engineers

Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader

3 20.08.2011 Meeting with Supt.

Engineer, PIC regarding

project initiation and Visit to

Krishna Flood Control Cell,

Sinchan Bhawan.

Review of Hydro-met

Network

Supt. Engineer (PIC), Executive

Engineer (Khadakwasla Div),

Executive Engineer (BSD)

Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader,

Hydro-meteorologist, IT Expert.

4 26.08.2011 Visit to Krishna Flood

Control Cell, Sinchan

Bhawan

Officers of Flood Control Cell,

AE-II, BSD

Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader, other

experts

5 19.09.2011 Review of Progress, X-

sections survey planning,

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan


Engineers, Engineers from HP Sub-

divisions.


6 21.09.2011 X-sections Survey Planning,

HP Satara


Engineers, Engineers from HP Sub-

divisions.


7 22.09.2011 Data Requirements, Training

Needs and Schedule,

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan


Engineers


8 23.09.2011 Visit to Nighoje River GD

site and FCS

Chief Engineer (Planning &

Hydrology), Supt. Engineer (DAC ),

Executive Engineer (BSD), Engineers



from BSD & HPDP, Pune.


9 18.10.2011 Irrigation Requirements for

Crops

RTSF&ROS Office, DHI

Pune

Head (Irrigation & Drainage

Engg),MPKV, Rahuri


10 21.10.2011 X-sections Survey Planning Executive Engineer (BSD) & BSD

Engineers, Engineers from Hp Sub-

divisions.

Dy. Team Leader, modeling expert

(DHI)

11 01.11.2011 Discussions on Inception

Workshop

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan


Engineers, Engineers from Hp Sub-

divisions.


12 08.11.2011 Review of Progress

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan

Director General (DTHRS), Supt.

Engineer (DAC ), Supt. Engineer

(DCPH ),Executive Engineer (BSD),

BSD Engineers

Team Leader, Modelling Expert, Dy.

Team Leader

13 08.11.2011 Review of disaster

management, flood warning

dissemination, Pune District

Collector’s Office

Resident Deputy Collector/District

Disaster Management Officer, Disaster

Management expert (PMC-UNDP

Project), Assistant Engineer-II (BSD)

Team Leader, Dy. Team Leader.

14 08.11.2011 Review of Progress

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan

Chief Engineer (WRP), Mantralaya,

Supt. Engineer (DAC ), Supt. Engineer

(DCPH ),Executive Engineer (BSD),

BSD Engineers

Team Leader, Modelling Expert,

Expert, Dy. Team Leader

15 19.11.2011 Review and discussion,

RTSF&ROS Office, DHI

Pune

Chief Engineer, Superintending

Engineer, Executive Engineer,

Consultant team

16 20.11.2011 Ujjani Dam

Review & study of Reservoir

operation

Site engineer, operators, control room

staff

Team leader, Dy. Team Leader,

International experts (F Hansen, G

Jorgensen)

17 23.11.2011 Sangli District Collector

Office

Executive Engineer (BSD), Dy. Team

Leader, Additional Collector, Resident



Meeting and discussion on

disaster Management

Deputy Collector, other officials.

17 07.12.2011 Inception Workshop at

YASDA Centre, Pune

WRD, other stakeholders, Consultant

team

18 08.12.2011 Review, discussion on

finalisation of Inception

report, planning of training

and study tour.

BSD, Sinchan Bhawan

Executive Engineer, Team Leader, Dy.

Team leader



APPENDIX E: DATABASE DOCUMENTATION