real world applications of usgs eq science: stacy bartoletti degenkolb engineers
DESCRIPTION
Real World Applications of USGS EQ Science: Stacy Bartoletti Degenkolb Engineers Structural Engineers Association of Washington Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup. EERI Seattle Fault EQ Scenario. Project Conceived in 1996 – Real Work Since 2001. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Real World Applications of USGS EQ Science:
Stacy BartolettiDegenkolb EngineersStructural Engineers Association of WashingtonCascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup
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EERI Seattle Fault EQ Scenario
Project Conceived in 1996 – Real Work Since 2001
Volunteer Team of Seismologists, Geologists, Engineers, Planners, Emergency Managers, and Social Scientists
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Key Statistics
Economic Loss Due to Damage - $33B
Deaths > 1,600 and Injuries > 24,000
Buildings Destroyed – 9,700 and Unsafe to Occupy – 29,000
Recovery Period – Several Years
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USGS Science – Ground Motions
Magnitude 6.7 EQ
Real Event – Seattle Fault has had 4 similar or greater events in past 3,000 years
Fault Runs Through Major Areas of Seattle and Bellevue
Peak Ground Acceleration
Magnitude 6.7
Modeled fault
I
Major Discoveries in Past 10 to 20 Years Using Latest Science
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USGS Science Ground Motions
% gravity
0 75
SeattleSeattle
OlympiaOlympia
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Ground Failure
Fault Rupture
Liquefaction
Landsliding
Lateral Spreading
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Life Lines
Water and Wastewater
Liquid Fuel and Nat Gas
Electrical Power
Communications
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Transportation Systems
Roads and Bridges
Rail
Airports
Ports and Ferries
WSDOT Bridge Seismic Retrofit Timeline (12/2004)
Phase 1 Superstructure
Phase 3 Multiple Columns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 2000 2010 2040 2050
$Mill
ion
s (2
004)
20602020 2030 2070
Phase 2 Major Bridges
& Single Columns
Current Funding
$4.7 Million/Year
WSDOT Bridge Seismic Retrofit Timeline (12/2004)
Phase 1 Superstructure
Phase 3 Multiple Columns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 2000 2010 2040 2050
$Mill
ion
s (2
004)
20602020 2030 2070
Phase 2 Major Bridges
& Single Columns
Current Funding
$4.7 Million/Year
WSDOT Bridge Seismic Retrofit Timeline (12/2004) (Courtesy of WSDOT)
Bridges with hollow core piles and Alaskan Way Viaduct are excluded.
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Buildings
Unreinforced Masonry
Pre 1970 Tilt Up
4000+ Commercial Buildings with Extensive Damage
50,000+ Households Displaced
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Essential Facilities
Schools
Hospitals
Fire Stations
Police Stations
Table 6-3: Expected Damage to Schools
Damage (in percent) County
No Damage Slight Moderate Extensive Complete
King County 23% 22% 29% 18% 8%
Pierce 64% 18% 12% 5% 1%
Snohomish 64% 14% 9% 3% 10%
Total Region 38% 20% 22% 13% 7%
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Priority Recommendations
Independent State Seismic Safety Commission or Board
Implement Risk Reduction Plans for Critical Facilities
Retrofit High Risk Buildings
Protect the Transportation Infrastructure
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CREW – Cascadia Scenario
M9.0 Earthquake Scenario
January 26, 1700 Last Rupture
Geologic Evidence for Return Periods of About 200 to 1000 Years
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Key Subduction Zone Issues
Strong Shaking for Several Minutes
Long Period Ground Motions
Destructive Tsunami Will Hit Coast
Potential for Significant Aftershocks
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Impacts to Various Regions
Coast – High Ground Motions, Significant Damage, Tsunami
I5 – Moderate Ground Motions, Tall Blds, Old Blds, NS Damage
East of Cascades – Minimal Ground Motions, Little Damage, Source of Recovery
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Conclusions/Recommendations
Continue to Develop Understanding of Seismic Hazard
Assess Earthquake Impacts on Built Environment and Communities
Work to Reduce Earthquake Impacts on Built Environment and Communities
Expand Education and Public Outreach
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Degenkolb Engineers