reasonable progress: chiricahua nm & wilderness area
DESCRIPTION
Reasonable Progress: Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area. Implementation Workgroup Meeting San Diego, California April 17 – 19, 2007. Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area. Overview of Chiricahua NM & WA Monitoring/Baseline Conditions Annual Average 20% Worst Visibility Days - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Reasonable Progress:Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
Implementation Workgroup Meeting
San Diego, California
April 17 – 19, 2007
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Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
Overview of Chiricahua NM & WA Monitoring/Baseline Conditions
Annual Average 20% Worst Visibility Days
Emissions & Source Apportionment Sources Species
Reasonable Progress/Modeling Model Performance Modeling Results Visibility Projections
Summary
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Source: http://www.epa.gov/region09/air/maps/az_clss1.html
Arizona Class One Areas
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Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)
2km Terrain Map 20km Terrain Map
Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
The Chiricahua Wilderness is located south of the Chiricahua National Monument. The IMRPOVE monitor is located west of the National Monument.
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Glide Slope Annual Average (in dv)
Baseline Conditions: 8.75 dvNatural Conditions: 4.0 dv
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Annual Light Extinction
Results show particle extinction. The baseline extinction is 15.44 Mm -1.
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Glide Slope for 20% Worst Days (in dv)
Baseline = 13.43 dv; Natural Conditions = 7.2 dv
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Baseline Extinction Budget
Visibility impairment on worst days is mostly attributed to sulfates, coarse mass, fine soil, and organic carbon.
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Baseline Species – Time Series
This shows extinction for all species for each year of the baseline period.
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Baseline Worst 20% Light Extinction
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Average 20% Worst Day Composition(baseline ’00 – ‘04)
Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
1.3
8.1 8.6
1.7
7.3
2.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
NO3 SO4 CM EC OC FineSoil
Aerosol Species
CHIR1
Lig
ht
Ext
inct
ion
(M
m -
1)
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Average 20% Best Day Composition (baseline ’00 – ’04)
Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
0.5
2.3 1.20.7
1.40.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NO3 SO4 CM EC OC FineSoil
Aerosol Species
CHIR1
Lig
ht
Ext
inct
ion
(M
m -
1)
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Species Glide Slope – Worst 20%
This shows the baseline and glide slope by species.
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Species Trends and URP Glide Slope (Worst Days)
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Emissions & Source Apportionment
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Upwind Residence Time on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2000-04)
Highest values are located in southern Arizona, west Sonora, Baja California Norte, and north Chihuahua.
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Sources Located Near Chiricahua
Point Sources Douglas Power Plant; Douglas, AZ Apache Station (AEPCO); Wilcox, AZ Apache Nitrogen; St. David, AZ Chemical Lime; Paul Spur, AZ
Area Sources Vehicle Emissions: highways, unpaved roads,
recreational areas Other Sources
Naco Dump: 40 miles south of wilderness area near Naco, Mexico
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Source Apportionment for Sulfate (SO4)
PSAT results indicate that sources in Arizona, Mexico, CENRAP, EUS, and pacific off-shore are the largest contributors.
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base18b) for each state and region.
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Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4
Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
36.1
0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
23.2
13.3
1.7
21.4
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rcen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nc
e W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4
Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
38.0
0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3
24.3
9.8
1.2
22.6
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Arizona SOx Emissions
AZ SO2 Emissions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-3%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Source Apportionment for Nitrate (NO3)
The largest contributors of nitrate are Arizona and California. Sources from CENRAP, Mexico, New Mexico, and pacific off-shore are also likely to contribute to nitrate.
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base 18b) for each state and region.
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Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3
Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.5
3.90.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
4.60.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
3.2
11.4
1.0
10.6
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nc
e W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3
Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.0
2.90.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
4.90.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
3.8
9.6
0.8
13.0
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Arizona NOx Emissions
AZ NOx Emissions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-35%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Weighted Emissions Potential – Organic Carbon (OMC)
Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.6
4.10.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
3.10.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
16.6
1.0
8.8
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – OMC
Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
64.5
3.40.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
2.80.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7
16.9
1.1
8.7
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Arizona OC Emissions
AZ OC Emissions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
+6%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Weighted Emissions Potential – Elemental Carbon (EC)
Sources and Areas of Potential Elemental Carbon Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
61.9
4.70.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
3.50.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.0
11.2
0.8
13.8
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal
Dis
tan
ce
We
igh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential - EC
Sources and Areas of Potential Elemental Carbon Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
54.3
4.80.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
3.00.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
2.7
12.4
0.8
20.0
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – Fine Soil (Soil)
Sources and Areas of Potential Fine PM Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
30.2
2.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1
9.0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.14.4
16.3
0.6
34.6
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential - Soil
Sources and Areas of Potential Fine PM Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
33.9
2.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
8.7
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.14.1
15.2
0.6
32.5
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – Coarse Particulate Matter (CM)
Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
29.3
1.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2
11.5
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0
15.7
0.3
37.9
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Weighted Emissions Potential – CM
Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
39.2
1.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2
10.4
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
12.8
0.3
32.4
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
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Modeling
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Model Performance
The left points are modeled data and the right points are from IMPROVE.
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Visibility Modeling Results
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Visibility Projections – NO3
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections – SO4
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections - OMC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections - EC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections – CM
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections – Soil
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
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Summary
Largest Contributors to Visibility Impairment in ChiricahuaSulfatesCoarse Mass, Fine SoilOrganic Carbon
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Continuing Progress
Continuing Analysis of ChiricahuaAdditional WRAP Products (e.g. CoDust)Local Emission Inventories (e.g.
Douglas/Agua Prieta)Nonattainment/Maintenance Area PlansLocal analysis (FLM, Tribal) Impact from BART and other non-BARTMicroscale Modeling????